Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 5/23

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-09T04:40:11.808-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-09T02:11:17.289-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-10T22:59:00.000-05:00

djl - As I'm also a Libertarian, I'm amused you th...

2008-05-23T23:55:00.000-04:00

djl - As I'm also a Libertarian, I'm amused you think Libertarians disenchanted with Barr will boost Obama. For one, only 0.3-0.5% voted Libertarian in the last 6 presidential elections so a fraction of that number won't tip anything. And two, a Libertarian who would reject a party member, long-time advocate of small-gov't, and zealous convert against Iraq and the drug war, in favor of the Senate's most liberal (read: big gov't) member is motivated by something other than small gov't Libertarian impulses and would probably be leaning Obama regardless of the Libertarian nominee's identity.

I think it comes down to clinton not being in the ...

2008-05-23T22:06:00.000-04:00

I think it comes down to clinton not being in the poll, without her around Obama's numbers look stronger

Sorry about a few technical errors in my post # 1;...

2008-05-23T16:24:00.000-04:00

Sorry about a few technical errors in my post # 1; I was in a hurry.

But my point remains: The daily Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls both have the Obaam-McCain race tied today yet this week has seen a wave of shocking pro-Obama polls in key states, with SUSA putting Obama ahead by 7 in VA and by about 9 in OH, for example and Obama surging to a 14-17 point lead in CA in 2 polls.

How can these nationwide and swing state polls be reconciled?

Pennsylvania now looks so strong for her -- we hav...

2008-05-23T15:41:00.000-04:00

Pennsylvania now looks so strong for her -- we have her at 86 percent to win the state -- that she might be able to get away with a limited investment of resources there in November.

I bet she will get away with spending very little in Pennsylvania, considering the fact that she has no chance to win the nomination.

Re: Party ID commentsI'm not a pollster, and don't...

2008-05-23T14:50:00.001-04:00

Re: Party ID comments

I'm not a pollster, and don't really presume to tell them what to do or not. The party id comment was referring to the 2004 polls where lots of people in left-wing blogosphere were dismissing or re-adjusting polls based on "obviously" too-high GOP party ID and the "fact" that party id is very stable. Doing this led a lot of people to have a false sense of confidence.

I think the same discussions will come up again with respect to turnout estimates for highly motivated AA and youth and newly-registered voters. And we won't know who is right until after the election.

Re: Party ID commentsI'm not a pollster, and don't...

2008-05-23T14:50:00.000-04:00

"them" being the disenchanted Libertarians I know....

2008-05-23T14:06:00.000-04:00

"them" being the disenchanted Libertarians I know. I can't speak for people I don't know.

If Barr wins the Libertarian nomination, it will h...

2008-05-23T14:05:00.000-04:00

If Barr wins the Libertarian nomination, it will hurt McCain on a couple of fronts. There's the obvious one, that he'll siphon off votes from McCain, but there will also be a nice-sized chunk of people who traditionally vote Libertarian who can't stomach voting for Barr.

I personally know several people like that - I'm one of them - and the vast majority of them are leaning Obama.

If Bob Barr win the Libertarian Nom this weekend, ...

2008-05-23T13:15:00.000-04:00

If Bob Barr win the Libertarian Nom this weekend, he'll take 5 - 10 points across the country. Sure, that isn't enought for Obama to win the nom (Barr's supporters, based on polling are about 2:1 republican to democrat), but it is enough to make McCain spend limited resources there, and it may be enough in the Carolinas or Georgia.

Tilthouse wrote "On other notes: 2004 convinced me...

2008-05-23T13:12:00.000-04:00

Tilthouse wrote "On other notes: 2004 convinced me that adjusting based on party id is the wrong way to go."

As you may recall in 2004 some pollsters (e.g., Zogby) did it, and others (e.g., Gallup) did not weight or adjust by party id.

What I found, polling within one state in 2004 was that we had to weight by party ID if we were to get our results to reasonably match up to the actual voting in the November election (speaking of analysis done after the election) -- otherwise, we'd have overestimated the Bush percentage by about 5 points.

Why did this happen? Not because of our "sampling," but in fact we did find a party ID shift of about that same percentage in the surveys we did in the early fall compared with surveys we'd done on a regular basis in the last year.

We always have to keep in mind that participation in surveys is a form of political participation or even mobilization. (cf. John Brehm's work.) For whatever reason (and we've polled this state a lot), in that particular period Republican respondents were more ready to talk to us than were Democrats. No change in our sampling frame or the way we asked questions about vote preference or screening for likely voters.

When we did make that adjustment for party id (using the average of the 7-point party id distribution for 4 surveys taken in the previous year), we hit the actual state voting margin for Kerry within 1 point.

With regard to what tilthouse said, name recogniti...

2008-05-23T13:08:00.000-04:00

With regard to what tilthouse said, name recognition probably does play a big role at this stage, but that still doesn't totally explain why Edwards is polling so much better than the other three potential VP picks they looked at. Consider that an Obama-Edwards ticket polls about 5 points better than an Obama-Rendell ticket in Pennsylvania. That can't possibly be a name recognition advantage. I agree that it would have been nice to see them poll people like Richardson, Webb, and particularly Clinton(given all of the current speculation about Clinton as VP, it would be nice to see how well that ticket polls).

I'm also a little skeptical that VP choices really matter that much in the end, but a good chunk of voters do say that they matter when they're polled. The amount of variability is consistent with that finding.

There has been at least a few polls recently where...

2008-05-23T13:02:00.000-04:00

There has been at least a few polls recently where Hillary-McCain hasn't been asked. Is there enough data to see if it really is polluting the Obama numbers? (I assume you could look at previous polls by the firm in the state that looked at both match-ups, and correct for change over time by looking at the tend from polling firms that are still mentioning both match ups.)

Apologies in that's not feasible/wouldn't be a valid comparison.

Off topic:I do have a new wish from you Poblano. T...

2008-05-23T12:50:00.000-04:00

Off topic:

I do have a new wish from you Poblano. This one is easy to do and I think would be very helpful. So pleeeeease!

Could you please add a new row into the (fabulous!) History tables, with how the current prediction pans out?

I think this is an important check on the reality of the prediction, especially using the relative tables.

A little disturbed that Nevada is +6 for McCain......

2008-05-23T12:30:00.000-04:00

A little disturbed that Nevada is +6 for McCain...

I have to agree with the speculation that polling ...

2008-05-23T12:28:00.000-04:00

I have to agree with the speculation that polling multiple matchups like that (i.e., asking each respondent about both rather than rotating questions) is polluting the polls.

This is most noticeable in SUSA's polling of the effect of various VP picks on both side. For those who haven't seen it, they picked four possible picks for both Obama (Edwards, Sebelius, Rendell, Hagel) and four for McCain (Huckabee, Lieberman, Romney, Pawlenty) and, after asking about a generic Obama/McCain matchup, polls each respondent about all 16 matchups with VP.

This is producing wild variations: In Ohio, for example, the results range from O+18 for Obama/Edwards vs McCain/Pawlenty to M+2 for Obama/Rendell vs McCain/Huckabee. Now this is silly on it's face: no reasonable VP choice will produce anything like that effect on the overall ticket. 20 points of variation? No. They need to poll 16 times as many people and rotate the matchups.

In fact, even within the irrelevant universe of this poll (which might, theoretically, gauge the relative strength of various VP picks) these folks mostly have low name recognition. So, however much I'd love it if Edwards really was the strongest pick, I think his very strong showing is a reflection of high name recognition.

Also: Hagel? Rendell? While possible, how about, oh I don't know... Clinton and Richardson? or Webb and Richardson?

On other notes: 2004 convinced me that adjusting based on party id is the wrong way to go. Obviously, adjust based on things like race, gender, etc (although, guessing AA turnout will be a big topic of conversation this fall I'll bet). People change self-reported party id a lot more than I thought in '04. Hurt my side then, but may help us now (with respect to actual results vs. polls).

The surveyusa Ohio poll overweights Democrats and ...

2008-05-23T12:19:00.000-04:00

The surveyusa Ohio poll overweights Democrats and underweights Republicans. So I have to question it's validity.

Is that breakdown representative of Ohio's electorate?

Meant to say 52/28 D/R. I'd really like to hear P...

2008-05-23T12:14:00.000-04:00

Meant to say 52/28 D/R. I'd really like to hear Poblano's opinion on the survey given the information I posted. Maybe there *is* a reason to take it seriously?

Rasmussen actually has McCain up in Ohio Mike.Addi...

2008-05-23T12:01:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen actually has McCain up in Ohio Mike.

Additionally, I don't think anyone (who knows anything about polling) is taking this Survey USA poll seriously, especially given (1) the internals and (2) the Quinnipiac survey (which is known for left leaning bias) with twice the sample size that has McCain ahead by 4.

Look at the internals: McCain got 17% of the black vote (yeah right), 62% of the Hispanic vote (I doubt this too), won independents by TEN points and got 81% of Republicans 14% of Democrats and STILL lost? Yeah, I'm not buying that. The poll was weighted 52/28 D/I, and, given the internals, that's the only reason Obama won it. There's no way the turnout on election day is going to look anything remotely like that. Obama may win Ohio, but it'll be razor thin.

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has McCain and Oba...

2008-05-23T11:58:00.000-04:00

Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has McCain and Obama tied at 45% each, which is completely at odds with his state-by-state findings.

How could the national race be tied if Obama is crushing McCain in Ohio by 9 points and has gone from 10 points behind in NH last month to 6 points ahead of McCain in NH today?

I hope Rasmussen will address this.