Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Nuclear Deterrence?

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2009-10-08T08:05:20.467-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:52:22.979-04:00

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2009-02-14T01:50:00.000-05:00

Incidentally, the whole "Nuclear Fission causes Ch...

2008-07-10T16:06:00.000-04:00

Incidentally, the whole "Nuclear Fission causes Chernobyl" idea is flawed.

Chernobyl was due to a control system failure combined with human error.

Today, we have plant designs that will automatically stop the fission process and prevent an uncontrollable cascade.

I may be a liberal democrat, but I am an electrical engineer. Nuclear power can be safe and environmentally sound if implemented properly.
Once you finish with the active rods in one reactor core, the material is still radioactive and can be sent do a larger reactor that continues the fission process until the stuff is absolutely inert or close enough to background as to pose no radiation threat at all and be completely useless for weapons.

I disagree subsidies are neccessary, just good eco...

2008-07-09T16:21:00.000-04:00

I disagree subsidies are neccessary, just good economics the way of the Pickens report.

Joining this strain late, but have you guys review...

2008-07-09T16:20:00.000-04:00

Joining this strain late, but have you guys reviewed the Pickens Report, it sounds pretty wise to diversify that way. The industry that could pay for diversifying industry, without it being on the back of taxpayers is obviously big oil. The question is how can we prove to big oil that there is as much profit in alternative energy as there is in big oil. Show them the profit percentages for investing their huge profit margin on oil into these energies and how that makes more profit for the company in the future and we are going somewhere.

Trusting the government to invest enough money to find and create alternatives is hog wash. Obama's plan will never work.

>>What needs to be done by progressives is to reje...

2008-07-07T21:59:00.000-04:00

>>What needs to be done by progressives is to reject the framing of this debate McCain wants to force. McCain needs to be asked why the same guy who rejects government subsidies for clean energy like wind and solar wants to give such a huge handout to the nuclear power industry. Then we'll have a legitimate debate.

Yes. Exactly. Any subsidies should cover any renewable source, the government shouldn't be picking technology winners. There's a reason why private companies haven't been building nuclear plants, it's not cost effective unless the government guarantees everything 100%.

I also agree that nuclear and oil are separate issues. Only the tiniest fraction of oil is used in electrical generation.

The oil we have in ground in our country will only become more valuable in the future.

i believe greg palast documented millions of cagin...

2008-07-07T15:41:00.000-04:00

i believe greg palast documented millions of caging letters from 2006, and he also has the emails that he intercepted to/from rove from 2004 with caging operations...

what's really to stop them now?

keep an eye out for Mark Crispin Miller's articles...

I am a Fractal: I heard today that the GOP is work...

2008-07-07T15:02:00.000-04:00

I am a Fractal: I heard today that the GOP is working hard to disenfranchise voters who have been foreclosed upon.

In theory, it wouldn't be difficult for the GOP to do that, but it would require them to engage in the illegal act of vote caging.

That it is to say, they would send registered letters to households that have been foreclosed. When the registered letters are returned, the GOP will make the argument that the household voters are no longer members of that district, or no longer registered voters, or some such nonsense.

Hopefully, the Obama campaign will be aware of this tactic and will form some strategy for combatting it. Obama's skills in community organizing in the Chicago area should come in handy here.

And yes, we should expect the GOP to try something like this. Hans von Spakowsky, their vote cager extraordinaire, was blocked by Congress from taking a post on the FEC, and presumably has plenty of free time on his hands for such projects.

.

@anonymous 12:15listen to al gore's electranet spe...

2008-07-07T13:31:00.000-04:00

@anonymous 12:15

listen to al gore's electranet speech, referenced above.

ideas like the electranet, and conny-mac (carbon neutral mortgage association) help people get over that initial investment hump, making it far easier to adopt new technologies.

We definitely need the government to do the heavy lifting and get us past the risky investment stage, just like they did with the internet for 25 years before it became viable.

al gore has always been about creating enabling technological platforms that can become the "new playing fields" creating entire new industries. if only bush didn't steal it from him. luckily he has obama's ear.

nate:

i heard today that gop is working hard to disenfranchise voters who have been foreclosed upon. it adds up to several million... is there any way to see how that will affect races if they succeed at de-registering all who have lost homes?

Transitioning to a new form of energy is a paradig...

2008-07-07T13:15:00.000-04:00

Transitioning to a new form of energy is a paradigm shift that cannot advance easily or without state support. The only example I can think of is the development of nuclear technologies. It is hard to imagine that it could have been done by private companies. McCain is amusing to think that renewable energies would develop themselves in the free market. IMO Obama is committed to such transition (and the state support thereof) but he is definitely taking political risks since it does not suggest immediate solutions. On the other hand McCain's immediate solutions are not immediately intuitive. I would think that to cut oil prices in half (in the free market) one would have to at least match the world's production with new developments. I doubt there is that much off-shore oil in question.

I think you should stick to numbers analysis, Nate...

2008-07-07T11:25:00.000-04:00

I think you should stick to numbers analysis, Nate. Where was your post on the out-and-out lies in Obama's opening general election ad? Like where he took credit for trimming welfare programs that he supported?

Nathan Myhrvold has all these interesting ideas ab...

2008-07-07T11:18:00.000-04:00

Nathan Myhrvold has all these interesting ideas about nuclear power without the nuclear waste.

http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/nathan_myhrvold_on_archeology_animal_photography_bbq.html

i think the most important thing, as i've said above, for solving our energy problems, is to completely democratize energy. to find out more about that go to http://electranet.com

Nuclear power has a false green image due to the p...

2008-07-07T11:03:00.000-04:00

Nuclear power has a false green image due to the pollution involved in mining and milling uranium, operating a nuclear power plant, and disposing of its waste (still no acceptable solution anywhere in the world). These cycles of nuclear power "enthusiasm" are industry produced and illusory. The plants are still so expensive and unreliable that Wall Street will not fund them. Still, politicians this year may find it useful to extol the nuclear power "option" with a straight face. That is what Obama is doing, with the main caveat that the public itself continues to have - that we develop a safe plan for long-term storage of radioactive waste.

Chuck Johnson, Portland, Oregon

Two points: 1) I don't think the point of the ad i...

2008-07-07T10:02:00.000-04:00

Two points:

1) I don't think the point of the ad is energy policy. Its about character. McCain stands up to his party; Obama toes the party line. The policies are supposed to be head nodders that make people go "well, that's a good idea" while Obama is opposed to solutions for partisan reasons.

2) But the ad is completely demolished by its source. How can the Republican Party put out an ad touting McCain as standing up to the Republican Party? The end of the ad is just a bizarre fandango of contradictions.

This seems like pretty poor analysis (especially c...

2008-07-07T09:48:00.000-04:00

This seems like pretty poor analysis (especially compared to your post about matching states, which is quite clever and interesting). Honestly, stick to the data analyses. This ad may or may not be effective, but this post is like taking one poll and analyzing it with no comparison case.

This seems like something written by Sean, poorly argued and evidenced.

The problem with nuclear power as a solution to ou...

2008-07-07T09:39:00.000-04:00

The problem with nuclear power as a solution to our energy problems is that the economics just don't work. Also, it's still a non-renewable resource. The uranium has to come from somewhere, and when you look at the list -- Canada, Australia, Russia, Niger, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, South Africa -- there are a lot of unhappy places.

If the federal government is willing to take on all the upfront costs and the open-ended liability, then the utilities aren't opposed to nukes, but even then alternatives like wind farms and concentrated solar and efficiency are competitive.

How it plays out politically is an entirely different question, especially since McCain is such a nuke zealot.

As already said, Obama is not anti-nuclear. Howev...

2008-07-07T08:54:00.000-04:00

As already said, Obama is not anti-nuclear. However, he is for a balanced approach to energy, while McCain has called for massive subsidies to the Nuclear Power industry.

What needs to be done by progressives is to reject the framing of this debate McCain wants to force. McCain needs to be asked why the same guy who rejects government subsidies for clean energy like wind and solar wants to give such a huge handout to the nuclear power industry. Then we'll have a legitimate debate.

If we are near peak oil then the most moral and ec...

2008-07-07T08:44:00.000-04:00

If we are near peak oil then the most moral and economic policy (how often does that happen) is not to drill for offshore oil now. Better to use the Saudi oil paid for in depreciating dollars and leave whatever oil is in the United States for our children and grandchildren to use when it is the only thing around! Consider what would have happened if we had listened to all the folks suggesting drilling 20 years ago- most of that would have been used by now -instead we used $15 mid east oil and still have ours which is now worth $150. Sounds like a really good deal.

P.S. What's down with gallup? Now a 6-point Obama ...

2008-07-07T07:46:00.000-04:00

P.S. What's down with gallup? Now a 6-point Obama lead after its stubborn proclamation of a tie for a month. Get it together Gallup!

The voting divide will be between 'green' types an...

2008-07-07T07:37:00.000-04:00

The voting divide will be between 'green' types and 'gas tax munchkins'. Nobody wins votes by proposing nuclear. The main problem with the ad though is the voiceover - smooth woman's voice kinda jars with McCain's mug. They need a gravelly wise man voiceover type. (perhaps Señor Nines could offer his services?!)

The most important comment was from Anon 11.38: "I...

2008-07-07T04:08:00.000-04:00

The most important comment was from Anon 11.38:

"I haven't decided who I'm voting for but right now I gotta lean Obama on competence alone."

The key issue is going to be competence. I want Obama to win. To win he has to apear competent. Blanket oposition to ofshore drilling , or any other option is not competant.

All he needs to do is to "clarify" his policy on ofshore drilling to put it in line with his Nuclear Power policy. Not oposed in principle, but dependent on assesment of polution risks.

Listening to the arguments here I wonder if many Democrats realise just how much s**t America & the world is in. I already know the Repubicans don't.

The oil is going to be drill & used. Get used to it. Oil's price will only go up as it runs out, and every voter has his price.

The only question is what happens next. Does America downsize a little with 50mph Electric cars & Alternative power or does it leave it too late & return to being a farming comunity?

Those nations that invest in wind power, solar power, electic transport, high speed trains & perhaps nuclear power will be the winners. The rest will be the new 3'rd world, to be ruled by those who got it right.

Obama is America's only real hope of having any industry at all in 30 years time.

Dems need to adopt the tablespoon line, where addi...

2008-07-07T03:23:00.000-04:00

Dems need to adopt the tablespoon line, where adding ANWAR is like adding a tablespoon to a two liter bottle TEN years from now.
Giving a visualization is the key. Right now 600,000 barrels sounds like a lot. It's not.

Energy is all what McCain campaign really needs, h...

2008-07-07T03:11:00.000-04:00

Energy is all what McCain campaign really needs, he has been running a boring and ineffective political campaign, against an adversary like Obama, young, energetic, and full of new ideas.

No amount of nuclear power or offshore drilling will re-energise McCain's campaign, he is going to loose big.

P.S. I supported McCain in 2000.

Sorry, folks, but anyone who seriously thinks that...

2008-07-07T02:59:00.000-04:00

Sorry, folks, but anyone who seriously thinks that nuclear energy is "clean" should travel to Chernobyl, the Ukraine, some time. Or the dumping grounds in Africa where all those "clean" nuclear plants in Europe dispose of their radioactive waste.