Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-June

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2009-09-10T01:27:24.175-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:33:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T05:33:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:48:00.000-05:00

How does the analysis account for the 'Bradley eff...

2008-06-17T19:22:00.000-04:00

How does the analysis account for the 'Bradley effect'?

Bryan - Three things where closer reading on your ...

2008-06-17T16:13:00.000-04:00

Bryan -

Three things where closer reading on your part might have helped.

First, Nate didn't make an arbitrary cutoff, that was me who posted.

Second, I used 5% as pointed out in the opening lines of the post because that's often cited as the ground game margin of error. That was the purpose of its use.

Third, I threw out a scenario expanding the margin to 8%, indicating that 5% was not some number of talismanic importance.

Nate:I'd love to see some data to support your 5% ...

2008-06-17T14:12:00.000-04:00

Nate:

I'd love to see some data to support your 5% cutoff for "battleground" states. This strikes me as too small this far out from the election, but that's just a guess. Do you have any historical data showing the amount of movement in the battleground state polls between this date in previous election cycles and Election Day?

And it seems to me that what qualifies as a true battleground might change over time. As the election approaches, a 5% margin may be too big to qualify a state as a true battleground.

One interesting fact about the updated figures in ...

2008-06-17T13:36:00.000-04:00

One interesting fact about the updated figures in this post -- each and every state improved for Senator Obama. Senator McCain did not gain ground in any of the twelve "5 point" states.

I'm hopeful that Al Gore's wonderful speech will g...

2008-06-17T11:09:00.000-04:00

I'm hopeful that Al Gore's wonderful speech will give Obama another boost among Dems. Gore is very popular among Democrats and I think reasonably popular among independents.

I'll second Dmitry's request to add Sean's table t...

2008-06-17T10:51:00.000-04:00

I'll second Dmitry's request to add Sean's table to the site graphs. While it may not tell us where the election will be won or lost (North Dakota, for example, with 3 electoral votes, is unlikely to be a must-win state, at least compared to the others on this list), it will tell us where the candidates should be expending their resources and help election news junkies like myself figure out what state and local papers to start paying attention to!

Upthread someone mentioned a weekly post on battle...

2008-06-17T10:04:00.000-04:00

Upthread someone mentioned a weekly post on battleground movement. Why not make the graphic on the left-hand column include clickable links on each state which would show the historical movement of the state's win %? Now THAT would be change we could believe in... :)

Mard,McCain's electoral vote graph should look lik...

2008-06-17T07:53:00.000-04:00

Mard,

McCain's electoral vote graph should look like Obama's reflected in a (vertical) mirror. For every EV Obama gets, McCain loses one.

Omar wrote "Add more variables to your regression....

2008-06-17T07:46:00.000-04:00

Omar wrote "Add more variables to your regression. It will only improve accuracy."

This is not necessarily true at all. The more variables considered, the more one has to worry about overfitting. Typically, one should have at least 10 observations per variable screened. Continuing to screen and add random variables for apparant statistical significance would indoubtedly introduce noise and decrease the accuracy of the regression.

In addition, many variables are intercorrelated; for example: if there is a correlation between race and poverty, including both variables in the regression risks over-adjusting for the same phenomenon.

Mard wrote "how can your models still claim only a 65% chance of victory for Obama when historically Obama is almost certain to win with his current performance in polls?"

That's the beauty of Nate's statistical model: it is not based purely on his current performance in polls at all. Nate takes into account historical trends and demographics in each state through his regression analysis, and he compensates for historical trends in polling error by running daily simulations.

Nate's projections are based on 10,000 daily simulation runs using current polling data and an error figure based on analysis of historical accuracy of polls, which Nate described most recently in his post (We don't know as much as we think (Big Change #1). Predictably, this error varies with time, becoming smaller as the election nears. Historically at 145 days before the election a typical national poll will be off by 6-7%.

Nate puts it very well in his FAQ: "The most important concept to grasp is that the error in predicting electoral outcomes is much larger at this stage of the election cycle than would be implied by the margins of errors from the polls alone. That is, the election may 'break' in any number of different and unpredictable directions, both at a state-by-state and at a national level. As we get closer to November 4, the potentiality for these trends will become lesser, and therefore the error assumed by my simulation model will become progressively less. However, even on election eve, the errors in predicting electoral outcomes are larger than those implied by each pollster's margin of error calculation alone."

By running 10,000 simulations with this amount of assumed error, Nate can account for possible changes which may occur over the coming months.

Please note: Nate does not take into account (except indirectly, through his assumed error) many of the things you mention, such as momentum/polling rally, scandals, likelihood of maintaining gains, etc. Nate is creating a statistical model, which is only one way of predicting outcomes. If you want a nuanced, political analysis based on knowledge of candidates positions and even intuition, you've come to the wrong place. ;-)

Sean-I didn't see the documentary, but as someone ...

2008-06-17T02:04:00.000-04:00

Sean-

I didn't see the documentary, but as someone who participated in Policy Debate in High School, that is, unfortunately, how it works most of the time. "Arguments" are made by spitting out various points and counter-points and you can automatically lose a round if you let an argument go unanswered. Thus, often times debates devolve into who can make the other team drop more arguments, and thus the speed-talking that you saw.

I do remember getting some inside info on certain judges that hated the "speed-talking", and my partner and I would take advantage of that and read nice and slow while the other team would continue with the same speed-talking... we would win those ones. =)

The battleground states aren't the states closest ...

2008-06-17T01:44:00.000-04:00

The battleground states aren't the states closest to 50/50. They're the states closest to 50/50 *conditioned on the assumption that the election is close*.

What would happen if you took whatever national swing would be required to make the percentage 50/50 between the two candidates, then took the states closest to that swing?

Nate:A few days ago, you posted this graph: http:/...

2008-06-17T01:36:00.000-04:00

Nate:

A few days ago, you posted this graph: http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3019/2579252924_b23343ff7d_o.png

This appears to suggest that if Obama's polling figures hit roughly the 6-7% lead range, he is in near certain victory territory. In today's update you also suggest that it's almost impossible to win the Electoral Votes if you are 3% or more behind in the popular vote, so with an error of 6-7% on top of 3%, that would mean a polling figure of 9-10% lead now would be almost insurmountable. With these two figures in mind, we are already heading into the 6-10% range by most estimates. Your 6/15 Super Tracker puts Obama with just shy of a 6 point lead, and Pollster's national poll average puts Obama with a 5.6% lead currently. The trend lines are clearly up, and both candidates seem to be primarily focused on growing their base rather than attacking their opponent. I do not see how Obama stands to lose poll figures in this climate, only grow. Barring a major controversy in the next few days, it seems almost certain the next set of polls will put Obama in the 6-10% lead range.

While clearly it's a wee bit early to declare victory, how can your models still claim only a 65% chance of victory for Obama when historically Obama is almost certain to win with his current performance in polls? Clearly it's possible the polls are still in error (ahem...NH), but my intuition says that Obama is almost certain to maintain his recent gains unless another Wright-like controversy comes up (and as minor as that was, with as long of a primary as we had, it seems unlikely there are any major controversies remaining). What do you think of the current polling rally for Obama, and what it means about McCain's chances this fall? Care to write a post labeled as "OPINION" on this topic? You are in the projection business, after all ;)

Also, while on the subject, what does historical polling data suggest about a candidate who goes over 50% in polls leading up to an election? I would assume that undecideds normally keep both candidates below that line until the race tightens up near the end, but I do not have access to all of these wonderful numbers you seem to have! I find it interesting that Obama frequently crosses the 50% line in national polls, where I can only see McCain crossing 50% twice... in early January and at the peak of the Wright controversy.

Also, could you put up a McCain EV Distribution graph? I'm curious to see how or if his shape differs from Obama's.

I'm sure you're swamped with requests and personal notes, so I understand if all of this goes unnoticed ;) I'm an adoring fan since your first posts on Daily Kos, keep up the excellent work! These are just things I have been thinking of over the weekend, and what better place to post and hope for a little discussion than 538?

Oh, another idea. Have you considered doing analysis of specific, interesting states? It may help your projections to take the time to really study these states, and I'm sure a lot of readers would find in-depth articles on states like Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, or even MI/FL/OH very fascinating to read! :) I hope you're making loads of money off those ads, especially the McCain ones :P

Nate, I am curious in what percentage of your scen...

2008-06-17T01:12:00.000-04:00

Nate, I am curious in what percentage of your scenarios Obama wins one of the delegates out of Nebraska (but not the whole state). Does he have a chance of winning one away from there?

Ha this post is by Sean. I better correct myself ...

2008-06-17T01:02:00.000-04:00

Ha this post is by Sean. I better correct myself on point #4 before the flood begins.

Nate, here are some suggestions to improve the sit...

2008-06-17T00:52:00.001-04:00

Nate, here are some suggestions to improve the site. It is great as is, but since it is a work in progress you may want to consider:

1) User registration to post comments. Get rid of trolls and the annoying Anon. I think you have big enough audience now.

2) Your ID should be more than Nate when you respond. There could be more than one Nate responding in comments. I'm surprised this hasn't already happened.

3) Interactive map. Clicking on state could give history, demographics, polling trends, etc. I guess they may be work intensive.

4) More bloggers? What happened to Sean BTW? Haven't seen any new posts. This is the first site I come to now, and more posts makes it more interesting.

5) Get rid of color coding on left of screen. More than one person has been confused by the colors. Their current color in this cycle would be more relevant/helpful. Somebody else mentioned you could give an up or down arrow in blue/red indicating trend.

6) More debugging. For some reason when I open up comments or after I post one, I get error messages. Not always, but often. I run XP/Vista. Others must be having similar issues.

7) Carotogram. Not that I care for it, but apparently enough do. Those posts asking for it back are getting annoying.

8) Add more variables to your regression. It will only improve accuracy.

Great site, keep up the good work

Updated... I plead distraction from this weird HBO...

2008-06-17T00:52:00.000-04:00

Updated... I plead distraction from this weird HBO documentary on high school debaters, where a couple of them seem to think an effective way to win is to speak like the FedEx guy from those commercials in the 80s. As if you "win" a debate by screaming in an incomprehensible speed yelling contest and simply saying more than the other person. It's surreal.

Slack: I think if you go back and look at the numb...

2008-06-17T00:37:00.000-04:00

Slack: I think if you go back and look at the numbers, Obama significantly improved his numbers when campaigning in the midwestern states, though some like Kentucky and WV he hardly contested. I think Nate showed pretty clearly that the demographics were just better certain midwestern states (PA, OH) than even a great ground game could overcome.

That's why the focus on the states polling <5% margin is where the majority of campaign funds are going to be spent. Obama has already demonstrated he's got an excellent ground game in the primary.

I propose Poblano & Co to add Battleground States ...

2008-06-17T00:34:00.000-04:00

I propose Poblano & Co to add Battleground States tracker in order to see how they progress over time.
As far as I noticed Virginia is now +1.6% Blue, rather than +0.2% Red.

Obama needs to figure out a way to use his money i...

2008-06-17T00:17:00.000-04:00

Obama needs to figure out a way to use his money in the midwestern states. He couldn't do that effectively against Clinton, and the extra money doesn't mean anything if you can't use it.

This would be a cool list to post on the side and ...

2008-06-17T00:16:00.000-04:00

This would be a cool list to post on the side and update weekly. Columns could include movement arrows, previous week's rank, previous week's margin, and weeks on the list.

This would also give us something interesting to follow now that there's no more dramatic tension about who leads.