Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-02T06:02:03.518-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-08-28T03:01:04.384-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

2009-04-16T05:06:00.000-04:00

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:01:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T22:01:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-08T21:53:00.000-05:00

520聊天室一夜情聊天室一夜情貼圖區一夜聊天室一葉晴貼圖區一葉晴貼影片區丁字褲女優丁字褲美女寫真丁字...

2009-01-07T03:36:00.000-05:00

520聊天室
一夜情聊天室
一夜情貼圖區
一夜聊天室
一葉晴貼圖區
一葉晴貼影片區
丁字褲女優
丁字褲美女寫真
丁字褲美女影片
人之初貼圖區
八國聯軍情色網
八國聯軍論壇
十七歲女孩貼影區
又又處女貼影區
下載a片
上班族聊天室
大老婆俱樂部
大波霸美女影片
大眾論壇
女同志聊天室
女郎俱樂部
女郎貼影區
女狼俱樂部
女學生內衣照
女優天堂貼圖
女優王國
女優盒子
女優貼片
女優貼圖
女優電影
女優寫真
女優影片
小老婆俱樂部
小老鼠論壇
小弟弟情色網
小弟弟貼圖區
小弟弟貼影片
小弟弟貼影片區
小弟弟貼影片網
小弟弟貼影區
小弟弟影片
小杜情色網
小妹妹貼影區
小高聊天室
小說論壇
小賤人貼影區
小瓢蟲情色論壇
小瓢蟲論壇
小護士偷拍網
小魔女自拍天堂貼圖區
小魔女自拍貼圖區
小魔女免費影片
小魔女貼圖區
小魔女貼影片
不色不進貼影區
不穿內衣
中部人聊天室
內衣秀
內衣模特兒
內衣模特兒寫真
內衣褲
天天情色
天天幹貼圖區
天天網遊論壇
天天論壇
天生名模貼圖區
天堂私服論壇
天堂情色
天堂情色網
夫妻聯誼俱樂部
少女內衣
手工內衣
日本av女優
日本av女優免費影片區
日本a片
日本女優
日本內衣
日本正妹
日本正妹照片
日本正妹影片
日本美女
日本美女圖庫
日本美女寫真集
日本偷拍
日本情色女優
日本辣美女優
日本模特兒寫真
日本學生妹
月光論壇
月宮俱樂部
月宮貼圖區
比基尼
比基尼女郎
比基尼內衣
比基尼泳裝
比基尼泳裝外拍
比基尼泳裝美女
比基尼泳裝美女的影片
比基尼泳裝美少女圖片
比基尼美女
比基尼美女的奶
比基尼辣妹
比基尼辣妹照片區
比基尼辣妹圖片
比基尼辣妹影片
比基尼線
水美眉
北部人聊天室
卡通aa片
卡通aa片免費看
卡通a片
卡通a片免費看
卡通美女遊戲
卡通貼圖區
可愛美眉
只有貼圖區
台中人聊天室
台中聊天室
台論論壇
台灣 kiss 倩色網貼圖區
台灣 kiss 情網貼圖區
台灣av女優
台灣a片
台灣a片王
台灣kiss情色文學
台灣kiss情色文學區
台灣kiss情色網
台灣女優
台灣自拍偷拍
台灣客棧電影貼圖區
台灣美女
台灣美女 kiss 情網貼圖區
台灣美女貼圖
台灣美女貼圖區
台灣美女電影
台灣美女圖
台灣美女寫真貼圖區
台灣香腸俱樂部
台灣偷拍
台灣情色
台灣情色貼圖
台灣情色網
台灣情色網綜合論壇
台灣情色論壇
台灣無限貼圖區
台灣貼圖區
台灣賓館偷拍
台灣論壇
台灣論壇女生遊戲
台灣論壇好玩遊戲區
台灣論壇遊戲區
巨乳女優
巨乳美女
布蘭妮貼圖區
平面模特兒
打工正妹
本土a片
本土女優
本土偷拍
正妹大學
正妹大學宅男社
正妹日報
正妹地圖
正妹百人斬
正妹自拍
正妹空姐寫真
正妹星球
正妹相簿
正妹美食地圖
正妹無名
正妹無名相簿
正妹無名相簿分享
正妹照片
正妹圖
正妹圖片
正妹圖片或照片
正妹網
正妹裸照
正妹影片
正妹餐廳
正妹牆
交友啦咧聊天室
交友聊天室
交友貼影區
伊莉論壇
同志聊天
同志聊天室
同志貼圖區
名模露點
成人a片
成人偷拍
成人情色
成人情色小說
成人情色文學
成人情色貼圖
成人情色貼圖區
成人聊天室
成人貼圖區
成人影片
成人影城
成人影音
成人影音城
成人論壇
有閒俱樂部
百分百貼圖區
米克情色網
米克綜合論壇
自拍a片
自拍偷拍
自拍偷拍成人影片
自拍偷拍貼圖
自拍偷拍貼圖區

i hope i'm not being a pest but i've thrown this t...

2008-11-14T16:44:00.000-05:00

i hope i'm not being a pest but i've thrown this thought out in a couple ofplaces (fix, senate guru) and i'm interested in nate's view obviously but also those of residents of these states.

Strategically, it makes more sense for President Obama to nominate current Republican Senators than Democratic Senators to high-profile cabinet spots. Three possible choices would be:

1> Arlen Specter: a moderate in some areas, who would open up the PA seat to a strong Democratic appointment or

2) Judd Gregg: he's smart and tough and would be the favorite against even Hodes, but maybe there's some policy areas where he would a thoughtful voice with common ground with an Obama administration? Or maybe a prominent Judgeship (anyone remember Governor Youngdahl of MN, who, by being named a judge, was taken out of a race against first term Senator Humphrey?).

3> John McCain: On immigration or Health and Human Services, he could be a real leader and leave his mark on our nation while being such a fabulous symbol of non-partisan leadership for both himself and Obama. And think of the deliciousness of Senator Kolbe? It's every political junkie's dream! (well with the possible exception of Gov Napolitano) Maybe Secretary of the Interior Kolbe?

Of course all 3 of them know they would hurt the current caucus in the Senate by taking such an appointment.

Vitter is vulnerable to a primary challenge-someth...

2008-11-13T17:37:00.000-05:00

Vitter is vulnerable to a primary challenge-something about his evangelical Christian base and the fact that he was caught in a prostitution scandal.

Schwarzenegger blew most of his credibility over the last year. Barring extreme anti-Democratic sentiment, he won't be a real threat to Boxer.

Reid is vulnerable-he's taken most of the flak for Congress' extreme unpopularity, and Nevada's still got Republicans who could beat him.

Salazar is safe-his only real threat, Republican ex-gov. Bill Owens, passed on the 2004 & 2008 open-seat Senate races, which he easily could have won. Hard to believe Owens would wait for a difficult race to open up before running.

Feingold is also safe-he nearly lost in 1998 because he voluntarily & severely limited his own fundraising and spending, not because of his opponent.

Boxer (D-CA) has got her first GOP challenger: Chu...

2008-11-12T00:45:00.000-05:00

Boxer (D-CA) has got her first GOP challenger: Chuck DeVore

http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/capitolalertlatest/016928.html

At first blush, I don't think he's got much of a shot. Her previous two challengers (Matt Fong in 1998 and Bill Jones in 2004) had both won a statewide election prior challenging her and were defeated fairly easily. I follow California state politics fairly closely and I'm pretty unfamiliar with DeVore, other than than him wanting to drill off-shore.

Unless popular sentiment swings fairly dramatically against the Democrats, I don't see Boxer having a problem defeating DeVore.

Coburn is retiring.

2008-11-11T22:11:00.000-05:00

Coburn is retiring.

Of course, all this assumes Obama and his administ...

2008-11-11T11:01:00.000-05:00

Of course, all this assumes Obama and his administration continue to be popular in 2010. Everyone remembers what happened to the Dems in 1994.

Sessions is not likely very vulnerable, but I can ...

2008-11-10T19:51:00.000-05:00

Sessions is not likely very vulnerable, but I can think of at least one way to get rid of him.

A bunch of the BananaRepublicans are pragmatic Libertarians. My guess is more than a fourth of them. Most people in Alabama are football nuts.

Somebody bankroll getting a Libertarian to the forefront. Then, get an ex-Alabama or ex-Auburn member of NFL to run. It would be best if he played for Atlanta or Nashville. Preferably he'd be black and charismatic. That will mobilize about 1/4 the population that normally doesn't normally vote.

This would force a runoff. Sessions would probably not be in the runoff. Win-win.

MY 2010 SENATE TARGETSby vulnerability(some seats ...

2008-11-10T14:45:00.000-05:00

MY 2010 SENATE TARGETS
by vulnerability
(some seats may be open)

1 - Specter PA
2 - Gregg NH
3 - Voinovich OH
4 - Murkowski AK
5 - Vitter LA
6 - Grassley IA
7 - Burr NC
8 - Bond MO
9 - McCain AZ
10 - Martinez FL

Based 90% on gut, 5% on popularity of incumbent, 5% on election trends.

Comments/Criticisms welcome!

Nate, Sean, Am so glad you guys are going to be ac...

2008-11-10T13:44:00.000-05:00

Nate, Sean,

Am so glad you guys are going to be active in upcoming political stuff- it's nice to read intelligent use of statistics...

ina

Chuck Schumer does an incredible job of helping hi...

2008-11-10T13:36:00.000-05:00

Chuck Schumer does an incredible job of helping his rural electorate, and his last election was a landslide, with 71% of the vote. While the Republicans would like to get revenge for his leadership roles in the past two elections, it's very unlikely that he will be unseated. (Did anyone of note run against Moynihan?)

To the 538 crew, could you please include the previous election results when discussing each senatorial race, so that we can see how popular each incumbent is? And, if not too much trouble, include how long they've served, and which committees they are part of? Thanks!

Nate,I know it may be your "job" to do this, and I...

2008-11-10T12:54:00.000-05:00

Nate,

I know it may be your "job" to do this, and I'm sure all the politicians are thinking the exact same thing right about now, but consider that average people like me are BURNT OUT after the longest continuous election cycle in US history. How 'bout a vacation (you guys have certainly earned it!)

The mindset of perpetual campaigning is not conducive to a healthy society.

I'll weigh in on the WA race. As others have noted...

2008-11-10T12:09:00.000-05:00

I'll weigh in on the WA race. As others have noted, the real star of the GOP is AG Rob McKenna. I doubt he'll run in 2010 because he's too smart a politician to tilt at windmills like that. Unless there is some kind of big shift, Murray and Cantwell aren't going anywhere. The GOP will make noise about taking them out, but in the end, they have better places to invest.

I think Rob McKenna will eventually run for, and probably win, higher office in WA, just not right now. He is the only real prospect the state GOP has in its farm system right now.

http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/_Maryland...

2008-11-10T11:34:00.000-05:00

http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/_Maryland_power_good_for_America.html
Maryland power good for America

By The Baltimore Examiner Newspaper
- 11/9/08

When the 111th Congress convenes in January Maryland’s little delegation will wield immense power officially and even more unofficially. Every citizen of this state must have faith that such power will be used for the greater common good.
We well know and trust Steny Hoyer, House of Representatives Majority Leader. We feel downright familial about Senate powerhouse Barbara Mikulski. And Sen. Ben Cardin, who brings a decade of Congressional connections to his first term, is a comfortable friend.

Most of all, powerful Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may have her heart in San Francisco, but her deepest roots draw from the rich soil of Baltimore’s D’Alesandro political dynasty.

Of course, that bodes well for Maryland as Democrats take control of Congress and the presidency for the first time in 14 years. Let us not kid ourselves about having powerful people from our state in high office bringing certain benefits. It is inherent to all governance.

But it also must bode well for all of America. Why?

Because we know these folks grew to political maturity in the turbulent environment of Maryland public life.

Here in this 2-to-1 blue state, the actual reality tends more toward purple. Dealing with conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans accustoms our politicians to the art of compromise. Political conflicts often cleave more along issue lines than party lines. No wonder our recent slogan was “America in Miniature.”

Want evidence? We’re the state of the 1st Congressional District where President Bush endorsed liberal nine-term Republican dissident Congressman Wayne Gilchrest in a losing primary bid. Then Gilchrest endorsed centrist Democrat Frank Kratovil against conservative Republican Andy Harris. What did voters do?

About 350,000 of them split evenly on Kratovil and Harris after support for Bush grew from 57 percent in 2000 to 62 percent in ’04.

Pundits, prepare to scratch your heads when you ponder Maryland.

That’s just the way we are, and it’s a good thing. It assures us that if this one-party Congress and historic new administration drift toward some kind of political rampage, leadership from Maryland will impose common sense for the common good.

They know this most recent mandate for change in America is overwhelmingly a rejection of Bush administration aberrant policies than an embracing of President-elect Barack Obama’s vague, untested policies.

Where Democrats take America in the next four years could determine our nation’s future for a century. Fate has placed daughters and sons of Maryland in positions of immense power to forge that destiny.

We are comforted to know them, and that they will do the right thing.

Find this article at:
http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/_Maryland_power_good_for_America.html

Hm. What bothers me about these approval/disappro...

2008-11-10T09:41:00.000-05:00

Hm. What bothers me about these approval/disapproval ratings is that the republicans all have approvals well into the 60s or 70s in their states, while only Inouye and Leahy get approvals higher than the 50s.

It's never too early to contact your local state o...

2008-11-10T09:33:00.000-05:00

It's never too early to contact your local state or co. Dem. party folks, and see what you can do to help Dems in '10!!!

Checking in from South Carolina... Jim DeMint is N...

2008-11-10T09:14:00.000-05:00

Checking in from South Carolina... Jim DeMint is NOT too conservative for this state. We just don't like him very much; he comes across as having more ideology than brains and South Carolinians have a complex about not seeming stupid on the national stage (something to do with our "thank God for Mississippi" attitude in public education, and Miss Teen South Carolina didn't help matters; that's why SC loved Sarah Palin, she was a dummy from another state). The problem is the Democratic party has NO bench in this state and won't be able to find anybody to run against him. He'll probably get primaried... but from what angle? He's got the far right marked out already and you don't win a GOP primary in this state by saying you're more moderate than the other guy.
That said... my friends, and our acquaintances, and people we meet on the bus, all really want Stephen Colbert to run. He could win... the problem is, a lot of SCers watch his show and would be confused if Colbert the man ran instead of Colbert the character, because they don't understand the distinction. I think Colbert knows that, too, which is why he might stay out.
Still, never say never. I would certainly campaign for the man... either man, actor or character. Even Colbert the character couldn't be worse than DeMint, and he'd be lots more fun.

Technical term for the female "consort" of a close...

2008-11-10T08:55:00.000-05:00

Technical term for the female "consort" of a closeted gay man - BEARD

@Another Mike:Charlie Crist will not be a presiden...

2008-11-10T08:16:00.000-05:00

@Another Mike:

Charlie Crist will not be a presidential candidate as he is, like, totally gay. Everyone in Florida knows this. He made a pathetic half-a*ssed attempt to erect a semi-opaque closet around himself during this election season by getting 'engaged' to a 'New York socialite' with whom 'no date has been set', but once he was passed over for the VP-candidate spot the socialite disappeared from the news, he retreated to his home where he lives with his pool boy, and he stayed very, very quiet in the hope that no one would make a fuss about the fact that he was refusing to say that he was in favor of Amendment 2 (our spanking-new despicable gay marriage ban).

Even in the post-Obama, anything-is-possible world we suddenly live in, I still can't imagine the Republicans running a gay candidate for president. The full extent of his gayness would be apparent as soon as the media started poking at him.

So a fun thought... what if Colbert ran for the Se...

2008-11-10T07:58:00.000-05:00

So a fun thought... what if Colbert ran for the Senate race in South Carolina? He'd get huge youth vote and plenty of funding and he's a very smart guy. It would make things fun...

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 2010 Senate Rankings, Part I: Races #21-#35

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 外遇 ...

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

520聊天室一夜情聊天室一夜情貼圖區一夜聊天室一葉晴貼圖區一葉晴貼影片區丁字褲女優丁字褲美女寫真丁字...

i hope i'm not being a pest but i've thrown this t...

Vitter is vulnerable to a primary challenge-someth...

Boxer (D-CA) has got her first GOP challenger: Chu...

Coburn is retiring.

Of course, all this assumes Obama and his administ...

Sessions is not likely very vulnerable, but I can ...

MY 2010 SENATE TARGETSby vulnerability(some seats ...

Nate, Sean, Am so glad you guys are going to be ac...

Chuck Schumer does an incredible job of helping hi...

Nate,I know it may be your "job" to do this, and I...

I'll weigh in on the WA race. As others have noted...

http://www.baltimoreexaminer.com/opinion/_Maryland...

Hm. What bothers me about these approval/disappro...

It's never too early to contact your local state o...

Checking in from South Carolina... Jim DeMint is N...

Technical term for the female "consort" of a close...

@Another Mike:Charlie Crist will not be a presiden...

So a fun thought... what if Colbert ran for the Se...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...