Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 10/4

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2009-01-18T06:04:00.000-05:00

A Conservative for ObamaMy party has slipped its m...

2008-10-05T12:35:00.000-04:00

A Conservative for Obama
My party has slipped its moorings. It’s time for a true pragmatist to lead the country.
http://www.dmagazine.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?nm=Core+Pages&type=gen&mod=Core+Pages&tier=3&gid=B33A5C6E2CF04C9596A3EF81822D9F8E

@ventu22: We couldn't make this stuff up. The poll...

2008-10-05T11:07:00.000-04:00

@ventu22:
We couldn't make this stuff up. The polls show a shift to BO. You read the report wrong and say the change is toward JM, and that change is what really counts. (You call it the 'derivative' to intimidate people who haven't had high-school math.) You present that misreading with complete scorn toward all us poor mathematical illiterates.
Then- whoopsies- you find that you read wrong. The change is toward BO. So now change is irrelevant- what's really important is the way things used to be because, you know, they always settle back.
Even worse news for Obama!
GMAFB.

/mbw

By my calculations, if Obama goes over and holds 5...

2008-10-05T07:46:00.000-04:00

By my calculations, if Obama goes over and holds 52% nationally, then IN, NC, VA and OH are guaranteed to flip. And then at this point in time it would be wise to look at GA, MS and MT once again.

And NE-02, of course.

Notice that I am not mentioning CO. He is already ahead there and I am 90% sure that he will carry the state.

Venu22: Didn't see the actual poll, only the artic...

2008-10-05T04:18:00.000-04:00

Venu22:

Didn't see the actual poll, only the article from the Miami paper, but I don't recall any mention in the article of how long ago the prior poll was taken? Seems to me that would be essential information in determining who should be worried...

McCain strategy is Concede IA,NM,and CO. and all o...

2008-10-05T04:00:00.000-04:00

McCain strategy is
Concede IA,NM,and CO. and all of the Kerry States except for NH.

Focus on winning IN,MO,NC,FL,OH,NV,NH,and Me-2CD.

I find it amazing that any representative sample t...

2008-10-05T03:53:00.000-04:00

I find it amazing that any representative sample taken immediately (~2 weeks) prior to the debate would have McCain leading [+12%] in how undecideds were breaking.

That is a terrifying proposition for an Obama supporter; in the midst of a financial\credit market crisis, McCain was winning over undecideds at a rate of [+12%]? If McCain was really leading during a financial crisis, a democratic issue, this would point toward some strong structural problems for Obama. What will happen when the credit crisis moves off the front-page in a week or two? That margin will turn most, perhaps all, of the toss-ups red.

I know many want to bash Palin, but if given the choice, I would rather have an Obama lead with a small movement toward McCain post debate than have undecided voters breaking to McCain [+12%] during a financial meltdown. Think about it.

Or, alternatively, it's just a bad sample. Which would explain why a subset of undecideds were moving toward McCain during this period, but then we'd have to throw out the poll since it implies the sample isn't representative.

watch the REAL VP debate:the video of the VP Debat...

2008-10-05T02:59:00.000-04:00

watch the REAL VP debate:

the video of the VP Debate - SNL style on 10/4/08 Sat. night... with Queen Latifah as Gwen Ifill moderating, Tina Fey as Sarah Palin & also a Joe Biden:

@ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/04/tina-fey-as-sarah-palin-i_n_131964.html

@ Doctor Pion:Yes, it's true in a limited sense. ...

2008-10-05T01:24:00.000-04:00

@ Doctor Pion:

Yes, it's true in a limited sense. A three-day tracking poll will show an increase for a canddiate even if the new poll shows him losing, so long as the day that dropeed out was worse.

That being said, this is true only for a short time. Ultimately such polls, if they are well-conducted will vary narrowly around the "true" figure.

Perhaps you have explained this in the past, but ....

2008-10-05T01:01:00.001-04:00

Perhaps you have explained this in the past, but ... Won't a tracking poll that has been going up, keep rising a bit because of inertia?

As I understand your description of the methodology (a description that says they are quite different than implied by media reports), the newest day's data replaces an older day's data. That means a drop from day N to N+1 will still result in an overall increase provided day N-5 (or whatever) was smaller than the new day N+1 result. Right?

Hey Ventu 22.I think you read that Ipsos poll wron...

2008-10-05T01:01:00.000-04:00

Hey Ventu 22.

I think you read that Ipsos poll wrong. The undeciced started out leaning towards McCain and then sauntered over to Obama after the debate.

Here's the quote below:

"It also found that Palin's performance in the debate did nothing to clinch undecided votes for her running mate, Arizona Sen. John McCain. Before the debate, those same undecided voters were leaning 56 percent to 44 percent for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52 percent to 48 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama."

NATE: I'm not happy with the format change you ar...

2008-10-05T00:55:00.000-04:00

NATE: I'm not happy with the format change you are proposing for reporting your state tracking data. Do I understand it correctly? For polls with multiple results in a single state, we will no longer be able to see the dates of any of the polls?

Maine is not an all-or-nothing state. It's good t...

2008-10-04T23:57:00.000-04:00

Maine is not an all-or-nothing state. It's good to see y'all writing about Obama's chances in NE2, but does McCain have an equal chance at stealing back one EV in Maine?

Per Politico Obama going jujitsu over McCain's upc...

2008-10-04T23:49:00.000-04:00

Per Politico Obama going jujitsu over McCain's upcoming smears.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14283.html

@ another mike"Just read the amendment. It doesn't...

2008-10-04T23:10:00.000-04:00

@ another mike
"Just read the amendment. It doesn't say a thing about DC have a say in case of no candidate receiving the majority of EVs. Since it is silent, the clear language of the XII Amendment should govern. I don't see a legitimate argument here for DC having any say in a HOR vote."

Interesting you assume I haven't read the XXIII amendment, especially when I've asked what the amendment IMPLIES. "Silence" and "clear language" are often the beginnings of legal arguments, especially concerning the Constitution. Even a cursory survey of important Supreme Court decisions shows the varying directions "silence" and "clear language" can take. In the end, THE "legitimate argument," by definition, is the argument agreed to by a majority vote of the Supremes. But in the meantime, it would be helpful to be guided to discussions by Constitutional scholars about DC's possible one-vote status.

"I would bet the Ayer's play by the McCain campaig...

2008-10-04T22:50:00.000-04:00

"I would bet the Ayer's play by the McCain campaign drops Obama across the board by AT LEAST four points and possibly as much as five"

Of course, because when stock values tumble, the U.S. government spends $700 billion to prop up our financial sector, and the economy is going to pot, what most voters focus on are casual acquaintanceships that the candidates have had with former fringe political extremists (turned mild-mannered college professors). Sure, this seems reasonable and plausible. At least you admit to being a cynic...

How deep into the McCain tank will Ras and RCP sin...

2008-10-04T22:39:00.000-04:00

How deep into the McCain tank will Ras and RCP sink this election. I think ras will go down this time do to his manipulation of the polls to develop stories for McCain. I am sure his numbers are favoring McCain a little now to show a Palin-debate bounce. Sad times.

And RCP pulled CO off of their Map to keep O from tipping over to a winning map. Sad hopeful folks there.

And the Dems caused all the financial problems the last 8 years. LOL

"The Times today had a front-page story on Ayres. ...

2008-10-04T22:34:00.000-04:00

"The Times today had a front-page story on Ayres. If one reads the whole story, one finds (a) that Ayres has made a positive contribution to society for at least two decades, and (b) that Obama has had minimal contacts with him, and nothing for over 5 years."

That's the part that gets me- I tried to post a comment about it over at FOX, but apparently they aren't letting responses to their story through:

Of course, she conveniently neglected to mention that the NYT piece pretty authoritatively debunked the entire concept that the two were even noddingly close. She even seems to have failed to notice that the main point of the article was to point out that they hardly knew each other at all.

It's an interesting comment on Palin's reading comprehension-

Perhaps now we know why she was so afraid to answer that mean, mean Couric lady's 'gotcha' question. She was scared that the follow up question to "what have you read" would be "what did it say?"

Do not understimate the American Electorate's abil...

2008-10-04T22:31:00.000-04:00

Do not understimate the American Electorate's ability to change its tune and respond to attack ads. Check out the Obama drop when McCain ran his celebrity ad in the Princeton numbers.

This is exactly the Rove-esque type of tactic that cost Kerry the last election.Betting the cynic's side, I would bet the Ayer's play by the McCain campaign drops Obama across the board by AT LEAST four points and possibly as much as five-and puts VA, NC, FL, CO and OH back into play for McCain. This one will hurt Obama. Badly.

Political "still betting McCain at 273-279" Cynic.

"What someone who actually understood mathematical...

2008-10-04T22:17:00.000-04:00

"What someone who actually understood mathematical modeling (sorry, baseball doesn't count) would say is that there is a shift in the numbers toward McCain/Palin."

Are you always a jerk, or did you just decide to act like one here? You can make your point more effectively without the attitude.

While Nate might not qualify as someone who really understands mathematical modeling in your view, he clearly is someone who can read. The article (the relevant quote is below) says that the undecided voters went from leaning 56-44 to McCain to leaning 52-48 to Obama. I have never claimed to be a mathematical modeler, but I'm quite sure that means that Palin DID NOT help out McCain. And I didn't even need to use derivatives!

"It also found that Palin's performance in the debate did nothing to clinch undecided votes for her running mate, Arizona Sen. John McCain. Before the debate, those same undecided voters were leaning 56 percent to 44 percent for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52 percent to 48 percent for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama."

Ventu22—Per the link:Before the debate, those same...

2008-10-04T22:16:00.000-04:00

Ventu22—

Per the link:

Before the debate, those same undecided voters were leaning 56 percent to 44 percent for McCain.

There was a 16 point shift -toward- the Obama Biden ticket.

PorridgeGun, I think that how liberal an Obama adm...

2008-10-04T22:09:00.000-04:00

PorridgeGun, I think that how liberal an Obama administration is will be affected by how liberal an increased majority in both Houses of Congress is. My impression is like yours - that Obama is not all that liberal. But a combination of extraordinary economic circumstances and a sizable majority in Congress could change that.

Nate,I understand why you compacted the MorningCal...

2008-10-04T22:08:00.000-04:00

Nate,
I understand why you compacted the MorningCall poll to save space, but I like seeing the latest result broken out separately. For example, seeing that he is now at +12 in PA adds to information that the average is +8.5. This way we can see some of the trend.

Nate Silver said, "Ipsos/McClatchy has come out wi...

2008-10-04T22:07:00.000-04:00

Nate Silver said, "Ipsos/McClatchy has come out with a poll showing that the debate moved undecideds slightly toward the Obama ticket, confirming the results of most of the snap polling conducted on Thursday evening."

That is flatly incorrect as per the link you provide yourself.

Using Nate's own metric, there was an 8 point shift in undecideds moving -toward- the McCain Palin ticket after the debate.

Prior Polling:

56 - Obama
44 - McCain

Post Debate Polling:

52 - Obama (-4 Obama)
48 - McCain (+4 McCain)

Now, what the article actually says is that it's capturing an underlying current of undecided toward Obama -- which is obvious due to the financial and credit market troubles.

What is shown from this polling is that, yes, they still are Obama positive numbers but the derivative doesn't lie and it's in McCain's favor.

What someone who actually understood mathematical modeling (sorry, baseball doesn't count) would say is that there is a shift in the numbers toward McCain/Palin. If this is due to the Palin preformance is unknown -- it could be a shift due to the downgrading of the financial/credit situation away from a crisis state, or due to sampling fluctuations -- but it appears to coincide temporal with the debate.

@striatic: I'm pretty moderate, if it was McCain/L...

2008-10-04T21:50:00.000-04:00

@striatic: I'm pretty moderate, if it was McCain/Lieberman, McCain/Romney, McCain/Giuliani etc I wouldn't throw out that threat :)

It's just Palin that I'm literally terrified of.

Thanks though!