Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals

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2009-10-02T05:52:08.829-04:00

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2009-04-16T22:05:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:46:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T22:18:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:45:00.000-05:00

"There are also a few hundred thousand Democrats w...

2008-11-17T16:19:00.000-05:00

"There are also a few hundred thousand Democrats who would have picked Edwards. Doesn't mean they're right."

Who's talking about right or wrong? No one knows what the "right" decision was for this election. Nate's post clearly states that there are few Democrats who would take that chance. In fact, there's a ton who would absolutely take that chance.

I think the biggest difference would have been the...

2008-11-17T13:17:00.000-05:00

I think the biggest difference would have been the breakdown of the message of "change". Like John McCain, fairly or unfairly, Hillary would NOT have represented change in the same way that Barack Obama does. McCain's message of being a "maverick" may have played out as a bit more believable, if he presented Hillary and Bill as "more of the same"...not sure how his voting record matched up during the Clinton years, but that could have had a huge impact too.

One of Obama's biggest assets was also his possibly biggest weakness - namely his lack of "record". He was successful in turning that into a positive because of the need for change. Without it, I'm not sure the youth would have shown up at the polls.

I am satisfied with the way things turned out, how...

2008-11-17T00:30:00.000-05:00

I am satisfied with the way things turned out, however as a former supporter of Hillary Clinton's I will always wish it could have turned out slightly differently.

I do not think there is a question whether Hillary would have won or not. She would have obliterated McCain. How badly? We will obviously never know.

What I do know is this: Had Hillary been the candidate at the beginning of the race that she was at the end, then the country would have had its first female President.

C'est la vie...

I hope that she does take this position (SOS) and I hope that in 2016 we (the nation) will be ready...because I know she will be.

http://carlroeder.blogspot.com/With both Hillary C...

2008-11-15T21:14:00.000-05:00

http://carlroeder.blogspot.com/

With both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama reflecting on an unfortunate employer-based healthcare system, perhaps Ms. Clinton would best be used in that capacity. Whether empirical or anecdotal and autobiographical, the realities are rather stark and unfortunate.

Wolfson and Ickes didn't and still don't understan...

2008-11-15T12:09:00.000-05:00

Wolfson and Ickes didn't and still don't understand the electorate in this cycle - THAT'S WHY THEY FUCKING LOST with an "unbeatable" candidate to a better if relatively unknown one. Nobody better lay a campaign on their butterfingers. They couldn't win a sanitation commisioner race without polarizing a tired-of-that-shit electorate

I think Hillary would have had a good chance of 'l...

2008-11-15T03:25:00.000-05:00

I think Hillary would have had a good chance of 'losing' the election. Not against McCain, but against election fraud. Pretty much the same way Kerry got taken. Not quite as badly but the same way.

I admired Bill a lot as Prez and Hillary as a Senator. But I have also seen her lose her cool and publicly degrade people. Obama never did that. Hillary has a temper problem and likes to run her mouth too much. She's mean. You saw how she ran against Obama.

But there were a combination of things that got us an Obama win. Grassroots, clean slate, the word 'change' meshing with historical color and worldy figure, temperament, clearheadedness, and being smart in regards to combating election fraud tactics.

Another important factor was Obama being black. This heightened the awareness of people's hateful and racist attitudes. We saw seemingly good people showing their bigotry. And since they are all in the Republican party, that pretty much helped do in John McCain. If Hillary had ran, this would not have happened.

Be realistic. I wouldn't call this a 'fair' election. A fair one would have brought the same outcome no matter who ran for Democrats. This election was an extreme one with uncanny timing in history. Republicans didn't have a chance against Obama. They are incapable of holding their racist tongues for very long.

For the record JRS.Obama beat Huckabee, Romney, Gi...

2008-11-14T18:56:00.000-05:00

For the record JRS.

Obama beat Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, Jindal, etc., by 14-19 points (much bigger margins than the average senate, house vote you keep quoting).

Obama's margin, was very similar to Clinton's, Vs McCain during the Democratic primary. The reason why, was McCain was the only Repub, that polled close to either democrat, because he was seen as less partisan by many voters (unlike his GOP compatriots).

Assmole elect said... "Nate, the polls only shifte...

2008-11-14T18:49:00.000-05:00

Assmole elect said...
"Nate, the polls only shifted to the O-man because of the Wall St. meltdown. The question is "In a universe where Hillary was the nominee, would she get the same luck as the O-bomber did?"

Hey Assmole. Stop spreading this story, about the financial crisis, and McCain leading.

McCain's lead, was only a result of the post convention/VP pick bounce, that lasted for 2 wks, out of a 5mo campaign. That's it, just 2 measly weeks.

McCain lost because of Palin, how he handled the wall st crisis, his negative campaigning and the debates. Those were the main reasons.

Fox, has already documented that it wasn't the financial crisis, that doomed McCain it was his pick of Palin, which co-incedently 5 days before Lehman Bros (and the polling proves this).

ChrisO said... "Comparing Hillary's standing in th...

2008-11-14T18:41:00.000-05:00

ChrisO said...
"Comparing Hillary's standing in the polls with Obama's final election results is nonsense. Obama supporters seem to have selective memories around this, but the fact is that he was running even with McCain right up until the financial crisis."

Chris O. Stop Cherry picking. McCain only had a post convention, VP pick bounce, that lasted two wks. That's it! Out of 5mos of the GE campaign, McCain only led for a stinkin 2wks. That's it; a stinkin 2wks!

Also, John McCain's own Palin pick ruined him. According to fox news, his poll numbers starting going down, after the Couric interviews, 5 days before the Lehman Bros news ever hit the press. The Financial stuff's a myth!

Also, if McCain would of handled the financial situation better, and didn't get trounced so much in the debates, that would of helped him as well. Shoulda, would, coulda! Obama was just a much better candidate!

"PeteKent said... You people have to get over your...

2008-11-14T18:30:00.000-05:00

"PeteKent said...
You people have to get over yourselves. Nate is now creating strawmen just to knock them down.

Obama won a fairly broad but modest electoral victory.

Let it go at that.

Whudda, cudda shudda . . . who cares???

BTW it seems everyone is so much more interested in Sarah Palin than in President-Elect Obama. What a maroon!"

A seven point victory is not a "modest victory" Pete Kent (especially considering, everyone told us "it's a divided country, all elections are close now"), McCain-Palin got thumped by 7 points and 200 electoral votes!

"JRS said... This poll is relevant. Obama did run ...

2008-11-14T18:13:00.000-05:00

"JRS said...
This poll is relevant. Obama did run behind Democratic congressional candidates by an average of 30% or 2 points nationwide (6.5 to 8.5%). While many of these candidates had all the advantage of incumbency, this voting does suggest that BHO may have been weaker than a more generic conventional Democratic presidential candidate despite all of his personal and organizational" skills.

November 13, 2008 12:56 PM

JRS. You are so wrong. Barack never underperformed generic Democrats by himself. So did Clinton. If you remember, all during the Democratic primary, both Clinton and Obama, were never more than 1-3 points apart from John McCain (no matter who was winning).

The real issue was John McCain. Both Hillary and Obama beat Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani, (or the Generic Republican) by 14-19 points, except McCain. It was McCain who was considered bi-partisan, and not your typical republican, why Obama (or Hillary) wouldn't of beat McCain by a larger margin compared to other "Generic" republicans.

Lastly. I don't think Hillary would of won the sweeping geographic victory Obama did.

I can tell you for certain, being on a college cam...

2008-11-14T17:54:00.000-05:00

I can tell you for certain, being on a college campus, there is no way in hell thousands of college students would've knocked on doors, make calls, and all that for Hillary Clinton. A lot of the GOTV work was done by young people. In the end, they might have turned out to vote for Clinton but volunteering their time to knock on doors in neighboring states? Definitely not.

African-Americans would still be pissed off about Bill Clinton's stupidity during the primary. It might be offset by a greater female support.

And while Clinton might've asked Obama to be VP, it's very unlikely that he would've accepted. He had already said that he was only interested in the top spot, and his wife also said that there wouldn't be a second run if he lost. She probably wouldn't have even picked Obama for VP because obviously, that's too much light at the bottom of the ticket.

So that leaves Hillary with a boring, less inspiring running mate. And also, McCain would've ended up with some boring moderate running mate. He might've still thrown a hail mary by picking a black VP though it likely would've been as effective as choosing Palin to lure women.

70,000-100,000 crowds for Hillary? Probably not. And also, while Hillary is a strong debater, she probably would've been judged harsher. Obama only needed to prove that he was presidential material and hold his own because he was the newbie compared to McCain. Clinton would've needed much more than that.

Financial crisis reaction? Clinton's campaign would've exploded during that (given she stuck with her same primary team). She likely would've followed McCain into suspending, delayed debates, and then someone from her campaign would get fire. Face it, her campaign team sucks ass and unless she took a stand and hired completely new people, they likely would've imploded in the General as well.

McCain could also run more as a moderate because the Republican base would have no trouble turning out to vote against a Clinton. He could even make the argument that he is more bi-partisan and a more uniting force than Hillary Clinton (Regardless of how you feel about her, she is NOT a very uniting figure).

Independents-- given the choice of Hillary or McCain would more likely go for McCain who has a long history of winning indies.

Fundraising-- Hillary would've maxed out all her big donors by August. She probably would've stayed with Public Financing, therefore less financial advantage.

Attacks-- the McCain camp was actually relatively careful in attacking Obama. Sarah Palin brought out the Ayres thing before the campaign fully agreed on it. The Socialist crap would've been easier to stick on Hillary because of her health care debacle. Then, there's all that baggage that she and Bill have. You better believe that when the Republicans are 5 points down, they'd drag out ALL of it.

Would she have won? Who knows. She was certainly not a great candidate in the primaries and would've had to do a lot better in the General. Her campaign team was stupid and needed replacing. Youth and black turnout would've been mediocre at best.

Obama will be a better President anyways so it's all irrelevant at this point.

Andrew,Show me some evidence that McCain was seen ...

2008-11-14T17:42:00.000-05:00

Andrew,

Show me some evidence that McCain was seen as a change agent or that Jindal had any potential popular appeal. None of the opinion polling that I saw at the time showed either to be true.

In fact I would be surprised if the national republican base, spokesmen or pundits would have warmed to a vice-presidential candidate of color. And, old JM was so closely tied by the democrats to Bush that the only change that was believable for him was a diaper change.

This election was a partisan victory. The only difference between the plausible Democratic candidates in 2008 would have been one of the size of the final margin.

Any other republican, including Romney, would have...

2008-11-14T16:01:00.000-05:00

Any other republican, including Romney, would have helped McCain less.

Wrong. Jindal would have energized the fundies and the pundits. And the fundie/pundits (the fundits).

Hillary would have lost because McCain would have ...

2008-11-14T15:57:00.000-05:00

Hillary would have lost because McCain would have been able to play the "change" card effectively against her. Especially if he picked Jindal as his running mate. (He sure wouldn't have chosen Palin.)

Face it, PUMAs. Obama was the better GE candidate, like we told you all last spring.

Aaron,You Story seems to be a short one with very ...

2008-11-14T15:54:00.000-05:00

Aaron,

You Story seems to be a short one with very few words or ideas. Evidently, Sarah Palin was more important to the outcome than the Democrats advantages in party ID, two wars, budget deficits, a financial meltdown, unemployment, GOTV, a charismatic candidate, a weak opponent and so on.

Palin probably energized the republican base, raised money, inspired volunteers and provided the GOP campaign with the only excitement it produced as much as she turned off independents and democrats. Any other republican, including Romney, would have helped McCain less.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: A Few More Hillary Hypotheticals

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

"There are also a few hundred thousand Democrats w...

I think the biggest difference would have been the...

I am satisfied with the way things turned out, how...

http://carlroeder.blogspot.com/With both Hillary C...

Wolfson and Ickes didn't and still don't understan...

I think Hillary would have had a good chance of 'l...

For the record JRS.Obama beat Huckabee, Romney, Gi...

Assmole elect said... "Nate, the polls only shifte...

ChrisO said... "Comparing Hillary's standing in th...

"PeteKent said... You people have to get over your...

"JRS said... This poll is relevant. Obama did run ...

I can tell you for certain, being on a college cam...

Andrew,Show me some evidence that McCain was seen ...

Any other republican, including Romney, would have...

Hillary would have lost because McCain would have ...

Aaron,You Story seems to be a short one with very ...

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