Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Has Obama Won the Center? [UPDATED]

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There is still this odd sentiment that Obama has s...

2008-07-09T08:39:00.000-04:00

There is still this odd sentiment that Obama has somehow energized the electorate. If I am not mistaken the popular vote in the primary was a dead heat, with controversy after controversy over who was in the lead depending on what votes the Democratic Party decided held value and which ones they would throw away.

He energizes the electorate just as much against him as he does for him or else he would have done much better in the primary (as opposed to caucuses) which Clinton clearly won.

As for dirty Rove tricks against Obama, I would gu...

2008-07-09T06:10:00.000-04:00

As for dirty Rove tricks against Obama, I would guess they might do the following nearer the election:

1. Hire fake "pro-Obama" thugs to vandalize swing-vote neighborhoods, thus hoping people will turn against Obama.

2. Continue to peddle false rumors in the same swing-vote neighborhoods - stuff that stays under the media radar.

3. If that fails, the usual lies telling people the election is on the wrong day, push-polling "If there was evidence that Obama was gay, how would that affect your vote?", a last minute "revelation", etc. etc.

One day, Karl Rove will go to jail, but until then, the lack of accountability is just going to make him feel that he and his operatives can get away with more and more.

The latest Zogby is not a regular Zogby poll (whic...

2008-07-09T03:02:00.000-04:00

The latest Zogby is not a regular Zogby poll (which is bad enough) but the completely worthless Zogby online interactive poll, which no serious website considers valid.

Zogby is an Arab-American and his brother is a strong Obama supporter (and may be a superdelegate for him).

Peter Kent,Don't even try to get through the thick...

2008-07-09T01:38:00.000-04:00

Peter Kent,
Don't even try to get through the thick skulls of the Obamaniacs. You're the only right-wing person on here who tries to take on the masses. The rest of us, however few we may be, just try to spread sense with a few comments (we're often called trolls for it). It's a hopeless cause. Resign like the rest of us and spread your intelligence where ever you can.

You are a clown. Your candidate couldn't win the n...

2008-07-09T00:54:00.000-04:00

You are a clown. Your candidate couldn't win the nomination and she started out with a 20 point lead in every state. Does someone deserve to be president when they couldn't put a team together to beat an African American upstart who nobody knew in December. Either she is incompetent or Obama is a much better candidate, it has to be one or the other.

As far as not voting for Obama, it doesn't really matter cause he's going to win fairly easy without the Hillary vote. You Hillary supporters are crying like 8 year olds. Hillary had every single advantage going into the primaries and lost. She was proclaimed the nominee for months before the first vote was cast and lost. She was beaten by a better candidate, period.

"It's fair to question why Obama seems to be under...

2008-07-08T22:26:00.000-04:00

"It's fair to question why Obama seems to be under-polling the Democratic brand (+10 v. Republicans)"

I think there's another way of thinking about why McCain is over-performing compared to his party, and Obama is under-performing compared to his party.
If the election were being held right away, this would be an asset to McCain, since it would lead him to do better than he otherwise would, but in the longer term it may be an advantage to Obama.
Basically, McCain is getting way more votes than he should given how popular his party is, and he's still behind Obama. Obama's ahead, even though he's less popular than his party is.
So for McCain to win, he'll have to take his current over-performance compared to his party, and significantly over-perform that. All Obama has to do is to keep from underperforming his party much further.
In other words, which outcome is more likely -- that the popular vote on election night converges towards the generic partisan preference figures, or that it diverges further?

The polls this year don't matter. Thats not an opi...

2008-07-08T22:06:00.000-04:00

The polls this year don't matter. Thats not an opinion, its a fact based on everything we currently know.

The polling template used to measure turnout is not even close. Heres how I know:

There have been 5 separate elections thus far this year,

1. Illinois special election
2. Louisiana special election
3. Mississippi special election
4. The republican Primary
5. The Democratic Primary

All three special elections were won by democrats where they had no business of winning. The polls in all of these races were wrong. They misrepresented turnout by 10% on the Democratic side.

The polls had no idea of democratic turnout this year. Nobody had any idea how large the turnout would be, it was huge. Obama got more votes in Iowa than all the republicans combined. The same with Georgia.

The last time the public was this unhappy was 1980 where Reagan entered election day with a 3 point lead in the polls and won by 10. People are angrier this year.Much angrier and much unhappier.

Everyone will vote. People who haven't voted in decades will vote and they aint voting for the republican. They couldn't care less if Obama was a troll from China as long as he aint republican.

On top of this turnout, Obama is a turnout machine. He has energized the electorate like no politician we have ever seen.

This election is over. Enjoy the campaign, but it doesen't matter much.

Party ID is generally not a good way of predicting...

2008-07-08T20:57:00.000-04:00

Party ID is generally not a good way of predicting election results. As has already been noted, there are different dynamics when you ask a generic Democrat vs. Republican and when you ask for opinions on specific candidates. A lot of Southern Democrats wouldn't even consider voting for Barack Obama, because they see him as too liberal. Consequently, they might identify as Democrat, but in the Presidential race they would back a Republican.

Obama has not changed a single position; he was ju...

2008-07-08T20:56:00.000-04:00

Obama has not changed a single position; he was just as "centrist" (an absurd characterization) in "Audacity of Hope". The only change is that he's reneging on his pledge to filibuster against telecom immunity, but there's no position change -- he still opposes it, even though he feels that passing the other provisions of the bill is more important. He's complete and utterly wrong about that, as he is about a number of issues, but he hasn't changed those views.

It's fair to question why Obama seems to be under-...

2008-07-08T20:05:00.000-04:00

It's fair to question why Obama seems to be under-polling the Democratic brand (+10 v. Republicans)

My guess is that a named candidate typically scores more closely to the median than a generic Democrat or Republican does. The generic ballot addresses the background sentiment (e.g. "Republicans are corrupt and incompetent") while the named one focuses on the personalities involved ("but John McCain seems like a decent guy".)

I'd guess that a better measure would be to see where individual Democrats fall relative to their Republican opponents and compare Obama's numbers to that.

Considering that there's at least one Republican running an "I love Obama" campaign, I think he's probably doing pretty well.

Hey Director, don't forget to pick up your McCain ...

2008-07-08T19:47:00.000-04:00

Hey Director, don't forget to pick up your McCain points. You wouldn't want to miss the opportunity to get a friendly email from Joe Lieberman!

Jinchi wrote: "Obama's statements on faith based ...

2008-07-08T19:42:00.000-04:00

Jinchi wrote: "Obama's statements on faith based initiatives and bipartisanship were expected moves to the center "

Senator Obama has worked with Republicans in the Senate on a few different bills, and he's supported faith-based initiatives since his days in state senate. He hasn't really moved much at all on those issues.

Regarfding the Gallup poll:It is a one day result ...

2008-07-08T18:52:00.000-04:00

Regarfding the Gallup poll:

It is a one day result and therefore somewhat unstable. Wait for a three day runnign average, which will give a better indication.

The Gallup tracking poll has been consistently showing a lower percentage for Obama than other polls. In fact, it is running about 4-5% less for Obama than Gallup's own polls done for USA today - so which one is more accurate?

I recall reading (I have to go now so I'll look it up later) that Gallup, unlike Rasmussen, make sno attempt to call back the next day voters who are unavaiable on the day they are called. This creates a distorted sample. If no being at home is correlated with partisan choice, even to a small degree, it is a source of systemmatic error. The Gallup/USA Today polls, I believe, use cal backs.

Gallup tracking uses Registered Voters but most of the other polls use "likely voters."

FWIW, Nate's ranking of pollsters shows Rasmussen to be more accurate than Gallup.

"Other than two weird polls that always pus Dem., ...

2008-07-08T18:46:00.000-04:00

"Other than two weird polls that always pus Dem., McCain is right there. Furthermore, you need not look any further that the last two months of the Dem. Primary where Hillary crushed BHO."

Obama's leading McCain by 5-6 points, which he's been doing consistently for a month now. There hasn't been a single national poll from anybody at any time in the past month that had McCain leading Obama. That's basically the margin by which Clinton won his two terms (+5 in '92, +7 in '96).

And, you know, Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton. That's why he's the one running against McCain.

It's fair to question why Obama seems to be under-polling the Democratic brand (+10 v. Republicans) or relative to the anti-Bush crowd (60% or so), but, at the end of the day, all Obama has to do is win - margin of victory isn't going to matter, and there's just no numbers out there that can realistically be spun to suggest a McCain victory or even a McCain surge (look at Nate's Super Tracker).

Also, I have no evidence to back this up, so I may be wrong, but I think that one reason why the national polls have been so stable for the last month is that people got engaged in the election much earlier than and have made up their minds already in much bigger numbers than in the past. If McCain waits until after the conventions to make his big push, I think he might be surprised to find that there are a lot fewer undecideds out there than he was expecting.

ajb said... Director said...ajb,u miss the poin...

2008-07-08T18:35:00.000-04:00

ajb said...

Director said...

ajb,

u miss the point. With all the pro-Obama posts that glorify how great he is doing and how bad things are for the Republicans, McCain is barely down in the polls.

Other than two weir polls that always pus Dem., McCain is right there. Furthermore, you need not look any further that the last two months of the Dem. Primary where Hillary crushed BHO..

It is now July 8, 2008, and 40% of the electorate is paying attention. Wait till September and October 2008, when the 52% of the electorate, who will vote, begin to pay serious attention to this campaign.

I then bring you back to my commercials. Obama can say over and over that he never heard his preacher use those words in twenty years, but people who go to church who may be thinking about voting for him will begin to have serious doubts about his character.

The same goes for Ayres.

Everybody is in la la land right now. As a strong Clinton supporter, who will probably stay home in November, the center of this country votes on character and who they think will defend this country. Remember, the Democratic candidate in 1988 was 14 pts up in August and lost by 7.

Stay tuned for September and October

The Director

Looking at those Zogby numbers again...There's onl...

2008-07-08T18:32:00.000-04:00

Looking at those Zogby numbers again...
There's only one state he actually bothered to poll in which he found McCain ahead by double-digits (Alabama, where he has McCain ahead by 11).
He has McCain ahead by exactly 5 in Kentucky, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Mind you, he has pretty high percentages for Barr, "Someone else," and "Undecided" in a lot of states.
For example, KY:

McCain 44
Obama 39
Barr 3
Nader 1
Someone else 6
Undecided 8

If McCain picks up the undecided/third party vote except for Nader, it'd be 60/40. That sounds more reasonable, and I suspect there might be something about Zogby's methodology that elicits these kinds of responses in unusually large numbers.

Oh and lol @ The Director. McCain has such awesome...

2008-07-08T18:30:00.000-04:00

Oh and lol @ The Director.

McCain has such awesome judgment that he voted for the Iraq war and in favour of torture, even after he himself experienced it.

But Obama sitting on the board of charities and going to church, that sure is unpresidential!

1. Flip flop charge does seem less effective given...

2008-07-08T18:23:00.000-04:00

1. Flip flop charge does seem less effective given (a) generic ballots, (b) McCain's own movements, (c) the fact that 4 years ago we had a choice between strong and steady vs. flip flopper and most Americans can be too easily reminded of which they would have preferred ex post.

2. Look at the main weaknesses/potential narratives by rival camps for each person

Obama
-inexperienced
-an ordinairy politician and too calculating

McCain
-age
-warmonger
-economic cluelessness
-continuation of Bush

McCain can probably address age and warmonger effectively. I am not sure on the economic issues (unfair or not, Republican economic solutions consistently do poorly in polls during poor economic times). The Bush label seems more true today than last month (given oil drilling and tax policies, this oddly has been reinforced - I am in favor of drilling and I see this).

The charge of ordinary politician against Obama is non-fatal given the generic ballots. You could believe this to be true, but you still like the policies and personality more.

Also something is odd where McCain's image as a Maverick has really diminished since 2000 (which would have helped in using the ordinary politician label against Obama) and he really does seem "just like Bush to more voters" - I'm certain McCain's own internal polls and focus groups have picked up on this, but am guessing his campaign has decided to continue to pull to the right in hopes of securing the base and then hitting Obama on some other strategy yet to be developed.)

The inexperience charge is more interesting and could be potentially fatal to me. The more the economy is the issue as opposed to war/terrorism, the less salient it is.

It is also possible that Obama wows people in talks and debates and somehow deflects this. If he is able to do so, it would be a blowout (just as Reagan blew away Carter after the debates in 1980)

I experience remains an issue, it is a close race where McCain has a chance of winning, where the idiosyncracies of who appeals to the working class, what Ohio wants, who is the VP, hidden racism, hidden ageism, etc. all matter (and things like one candidate taking the popular vote and losing are all possible).

Clearly more upside potential for Obama, but a path for McCain getting to 271 is also possible.

Zogby isn't that bad. They got Iowa, Nevada, South...

2008-07-08T18:19:00.000-04:00

Zogby isn't that bad. They got Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, Georgia, Missouri, New York, Texas, Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina right. And they got New Hampshire, California, New Jersey and Ohio wrong.

There's worse.

Brilliant, Director. Your second ad made me laugh ...

2008-07-08T18:18:00.001-04:00

Brilliant, Director. Your second ad made me laugh -- not because it was funny, but because it was the laugh of recognition.

Never meant for it to be funny. Deadly serious. Who is Barack Hussein Obama? All I know about him besides what he tells us is through his personal actions.

1. He walked for twenty years with a racist. If Obama was white, the PRESS would have crucified him and CLINTON would be the nominee.

2. He was friends with a Terrorist.