Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/11

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2009-09-11T09:11:34.777-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:52:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T01:52:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T20:50:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-19T10:03:00.000-05:00

I live in Nevada and volunteer for the Obama campa...

2008-09-12T23:02:00.000-04:00

I live in Nevada and volunteer for the Obama campaign, that 73% AA support for McCain is just not correct, they flipped the numbers or their sample was 4 AA voters and they just happened to poll 3 who like McCain

So what on this Palin nonsense. She is not an all ...

2008-09-12T14:01:00.000-04:00

So what on this Palin nonsense. She is not an all star at foreign policy. Did anyone here expect her to be? McCain has plenty of foreign policy experience. She is on the tickets for domestic reasons. Oil and Energy, Executive experience, government reform, balancing a budget and creating a surplus. I had to look up the Bush Doctrine to know what Charlie was talking about. Why would anyone know what the Bush Doctrine means? For those of us religious persons, Doctrine means one's personal beliefs about the scripture and the deity.

By using the term "Bush Doctrine", did Gibson mean...

2008-09-12T12:30:00.000-04:00

By using the term "Bush Doctrine", did Gibson mean 1) the 2002 NSS document that outlined the use of pre-emptive force against nations that supposedly were developing/possessed WMDs; or 2) the current 2006 NSS document that calls for multilateral approaches to fighting terrorism and supporting democracies?

In either case, "Bush Doctrine" is a term that, to my knowledge, has not been defined by any member of the Bush administration. Typically, people who use the term are critics of it.

Calling Palin out on this perceived flub comes off as petty and whining. Which blogger here is prepared to reach out to voters that can be swayed to Obama through effective methods (not condescending rhetoric about how stupid the opponent is, or how perfect Obama is).

I read everywhere that Republicans campaign through fear. I see fear here as well. Can we elevate the discussion a bit?

"Indeed, we've so often turned the other cheeck, s...

2008-09-12T11:15:00.000-04:00

"Indeed, we've so often turned the other cheeck, such as on Al Queada's early attacks against us and Iran's incursions against us in Iraq presently, that the norm has become to keep poking at us until we do react. That can only lead to quick escalation if we don't react on a timely basis."

What fucking planet do you live on?

Iran's incursions against us in Iraq?

So, when psyops people supply insurgents with weapons doctored incompetently to look like they came from Iran, that counts as an incursion?

You know, when Japan invaded Manchuria, they sold the attack as being a "pre-emptive" attack against an obviously hostile native country, that had designs against Japan. It's amazing what you can do with "pre-emptive" logic. You invade one country "pre-emptively", sit there for 5 years, and suddenly you can use the presence of your troops there to justify a "pre-emptive" attack on a second country!

At what point are we all simply going to agree that the US is the aggressor here?

The idea that the US has "turned the other cheek" is laughable.

"Happy 9/11, folks! GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!"What the ...

2008-09-12T11:06:00.000-04:00

"Happy 9/11, folks! GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!"

What the fuck?

"Happy" 9/11?

Hey, if this a Thought Police kind of neighborhood...

2008-09-12T10:12:00.000-04:00

Hey, if this a Thought Police kind of neighborhood where only certain types of views from a particular breed of Dems are welcomed, maybe the mods can give us the straight up. I'd be happy to leave!

tito ,"I don't say this to sound cocky, but just t...

2008-09-12T10:05:00.000-04:00

tito ,

"I don't say this to sound cocky, but just to point out your choices - Lead. Follow. Or get out of the way."

You sound supremely cocky, and you;re asking people who are voting and who have been giving or supporting the Democratic ticket to get out of the way?

How useful or substantial are all the GET OUT OF THE WAY posts that you, sedi and the other Obama bots have pushed? You don't think these GTFO posts hog up valuable space, space where jaywood, who meekly expressed "frustration" and the threat of not voting in a post not longer than a few words, could have explained why he felt that way and be persuaded back to the fold, and better, to be renewed, energized and motivated to slog till November???

There is a demoralized, disgruntled Democratic faction and you want to THROW AWAY their votes, pray tell, where are you looking to GOTV?

And can he afford turning off more Democrats and I...

2008-09-12T09:54:00.000-04:00

And can he afford turning off more Democrats and Independents who are flummoxed with what he's been doing and whose views are reflected in the changing polls?

Tito, agree that America is not well served by mak...

2008-09-12T09:53:00.000-04:00

Tito, agree that America is not well served by making empty, boasterous (if that's a word)statements. Despite the claims of some, we've yet to take pre-emptive action against an enemy that hasn't attacked us directly.

Indeed, we've so often turned the other cheeck, such as on Al Queada's early attacks against us and Iran's incursions against us in Iraq presently, that the norm has become to keep poking at us until we do react. That can only lead to quick escalation if we don't react on a timely basis.

No one advocates a hair-trigger policy to provocation, and diplomatic leverage is always the first-line primary tactic to diffuse possible violence. That seems to be working with Russia, despite their bellicosity.

But we cannot allow the fear of military action, to paralyze us into inaction, which is why liberals cannot be trusted with national security.

Obama has stated he'd back off development of our defensive weapons, which would be the short path to emboldening Russia, Iran, China, or any other ne'er-do-well.

" The ones that don't have much substance detract ...

2008-09-12T09:51:00.000-04:00

" The ones that don't have much substance detract from the site, in my view."

Whoa, who are you to judge which posts are substantial and which aren't? You can only speak for yourself. My own judgment is that the ones who shut up debate are the worst, be they Democrats or Republicans. Random trolling is one thing, as long as someone has something to say, they SHOULD say it, whether they agree or disagree. I have one vote as do you as does the next Republican or Independent. From a strategic point of view, your voice isn't particularly more important or interesting. In fact, if Obama is wise, he should be listening to ALL the other voices, the ones who are feeling frustration, who are not giving anymore, who have turned from undecided to McCain, not the voice of the ones whose votes are in the bag. By attempting to censor the others, you and your ilk are doing him harm by distorting the mood of the electorate. Now this one post makes a hundred times more sense than all your infantile attacks on my posts so far...spelling??? Obama's lead has been shaved by a few percentages, can he afford more?

"The truth of the matter is you can only strong ar...

2008-09-12T09:31:00.000-04:00

"The truth of the matter is you can only strong arm someone so long before they hit back, and how do you think Russia will do that? Because I belive we'll go tactical nuclear, they'll go full nuclear and the whole of humanity will suffer."

Weav, that's the same appeasement argument people have been using forever to justify not standing up. I think you misstate the case saying that we're "strong-arming" them. They're doing the strong-arming. The sooner and stronger we stand up to it, the LOWER the risk of escalation. Otherwise, we'll always be blackmailed.

To reduce the risk of nuclear attack is exactly why we have developed our anti-missile technology and intend to deploy it as a check to nuclear threats that have already been made.

"I get a laugh when people who cannot identify a p...

2008-09-12T08:19:00.000-04:00

"I get a laugh when people who cannot identify a passport when they see one think the rest of Americans live like they do."

If there was any doubt as to whether you any clue what you are talking about, it is now gone. This statement is flawed on so many levels, but go ahead and presume to know me and what I think if it makes you feel better.

If you care to actually analyze polls, please do so. Otherwise, there is no reason for those of us who actually look at them in detail and think about their implications to listen to you. To claim that they are moving in a particular direction and leave it at that is simplistic and not terribly useful.

I like this site because some people here have interesting views and perspectives. I appreciate the ones that are thoughtful and meaningful, whether I agree with them or not. The ones that don't have much substance detract from the site, in my view.

Turns out Gibson is a knuckleballer.I think Palin ...

2008-09-12T07:33:00.000-04:00

Turns out Gibson is a knuckleballer.

I think Palin showed she was smart and fast, as she bluffed her way past, and I doubt if she is going to get caught out a second time on the same subject, but she struck out this time. The trouble is that next time it will be something else. The press corps must be smelling blood now.

Some random thoughts inspired by this thread, in n...

2008-09-12T05:58:00.000-04:00

Some random thoughts inspired by this thread, in no particualr order-

* The electoral college may not make a whole lot of sense to some, but actually its a pretty reasonable way of ensuring the views of all of the country are repsresented in the process. If the college didn't exist all the money in elections would be spent in the big, rich states, California, Texas, New York etc. The small towns and states would be ignored.

* I think that McCain's bounce has been fuelled by two types of people, evangelicals (who most likely will stick) and independent white women (who I think are still up in the air really). Evangelicals lock up some states, but states like Ohio, Virginia and a few others may well look a whole lot redder when the initial bounce wears off.

*Palin's answer on the Bush Doctrine was bad. Not so much her answer on the Bush tactics, but more not understanding what was meant by the term. It showed her as not very bright really. I don't suppose many people would pick up on that, but I do think it was a train wreck moment actually. Gave metropolitan types at least a bad impression, but is it goint ot register with her supporters?

* I don't think Palin did that well on ABC, but then again I don't like her anyway. I thought she was wordy and didn't really answer the questions, One time Gibson brought her up on it. But I don't think its going to change impreassions of her.

* The Democratic Party didn't die in 1968, it died in 1972. And it destroyed itself. The party could have recovered from 1968, it lost a fairly close election after all. But in 1972 it turned to a liberal, hippie type that allowed Nixon, and by extension all GOP Presidential candidates since as reasonable and moderate. It was 1972 when the party started to care more about its conscience than winning elections. Do you thnk a GOP that cared about its conscience would have nominated John McCain this year? He was nominated because he could win not because he was the perfect candidate.

* Tags like moderate/liberal/conservative are funny to me. Most great Presidents, of the first order would be considered liberal (Lincoln, FDR) whilst probably the best a conservative could do would be Reagan (probably in the second rank right now historically). And yet its Liberalism that some people think of as UnAmerican?

Qute -What do you suggest be done to change the tr...

2008-09-12T05:11:00.000-04:00

Qute -

What do you suggest be done to change the trajectory as you see it? You're complaining about people complaining about people complaining. Seriously.

I can't tell if you're a disaffected Obama supporter or pulling for McCain. That's not to call you a troll or anything derogatory. But all you are bringing to the table is a dour and pissy mood. If you're so upset about the state of the race and people supposedly being in denial, then what are you doing to change that? I stay positive. I stay confident. I have faith in what's right and that what is right will prevail. A leader leads with confidence, chest out and chin held high. Not by aggressively dismissing every bad sign as a collapse or failure.

As Sedi said, we aren't going to have much affect on the campaign one way or the other with our amateur political punditry. Being a supporter does not give you a voice in strategy. I have reasonable doubts that anyone here has done more political work than volunteering. Obama might have 2+ million contributors, but that surely does not make us 2+ million campaign managers. You either trust your leader or you don't. I trust Obama. And as much as some folks on the other side my get on my nerves, I know they trust John McCain.

But who do you trust? Who do you put your faith in to be the victor? And besides bemoaning the state of things, how do you specifically suggest we improve things if you think they are so bad?

I don't say this to sound cocky, but just to point out your choices - Lead. Follow. Or get out of the way. Are you going to lead with specific suggestions? Are you gonna follow with faith? Or are you going to just sit there sounding sad and disappointed and never do anything to improve your circumstances? We're two months out, nothing is certain. 90% of this is all in your head.

If you think the polls are too kind to McCain now,...

2008-09-12T04:51:00.000-04:00

If you think the polls are too kind to McCain now, watch out when McCain and Palin go on the road to campaign. The more excitement they generate, the more enamored the media, the surer the trajectory to a McCain win. Red states turning redder spells trouble for Purple states, it's not chess, it's not checkers, it's go. You win by flipping them over, one by one. You need to contain the Reds, grab the corners/take the stage and start flipping back the Purples aggressively because any go player will tell you the bigger the encirclement, the harder it is to win.

"On a related note, I get a chuckle when people wh...

2008-09-12T04:38:00.000-04:00

"On a related note, I get a chuckle when people who spell with British English explain what the American electorate is thinking and what they want."

I get a laugh when people who cannot identify a passport when they see one think the rest of Americans live like they do.

Maybe if you're less concerned about spelling and more focused on the MEANING of the English language, you would have discovered "trajectory" to mean the development in time of a path taken by a particular object. Right now, the path of this election is veering towards a McCain advantage, and its momentum, if left unchecked, could result in a McCain victory. You don't need to be a clairvoyant to predict the future, by studying weather patterns, you can project with some accuracy if it's going to rain on your parade. You can of course urge everyone to ignore the polls and miraculously, the trajectory would, in your fantasy election, veer magically back to an Obama advantage.

You're one of the ridiculous chorus out there drunk on the Kool Aid - "all is well if only we would all believe" - even as your American Idol, Axelrod, concedes that Palin's success was unanticipated. What else are they *not prepared* for by shutting off dissenting voices?

The only truth you have uttered is that the Media is all about Palin right now and Obama can't do a damn thing about it. Do you think that was purely an accident and McCain's gambler's luck when he chose to pick Palin after Obama picked Biden?

So if this site has no effect on the race, why are you wasting your time here trying to shut down other voices? If you can't bear opinions that are different, why don't you go back to the sites where everyone drinks from the same fountain and wears the same jackboots?

Rudy said... Again, the key to containing Russi...

2008-09-12T04:25:00.000-04:00

Rudy said...

Again, the key to containing Russia is them understanding we'd kick their butt if they start running over free countries.

I know this thread is dead, but I feel compelled to reply to this point. In a different time, not too long ago, this is a statement I could totally get behind. This is what we did in the first Gulf War. And it worked.

But towards the end of 2002 and into 2003 we turned away from one of our greatest lines of credit - We don't strike first. WMDs or not, lies or not, and irrelevant is everything that has happened since within the Middle East. Even before the invasion of Iraq we made a philosophical shift in foreign policy. You don't hit first. And when someone else strikes out on a crazy power trip then we were the warrior standing there in the defense of those who needed us, with our sword stabbed into the ground in front of us saying "Cross this line. I dare you."

Even after 9/11 we walked into Afghanistan and the rest of the world just stood back and said "Do what you gotta do." Whether they agreed or not, we had been the ones hit first for once and everyone knew the times we'd been there for other countries, in other fights. They knew we would have justice come hell or high water.

But we don't have that any more. We went preemptive and it's such a reversal for how we had been doing things. Some of the other members in the global community have been looking at us like we've gone mad. And in their eyes they are skeptical. The brand has been tarnished.

We've gotta work on reestablishing the American brand. We were not weak before when we built up our reputation after our heroism in World War II. We are not weak now, and won't be weak in the future if we change course. But we have to be calm, collected, and capable of showing restraint. Making off-the-cuff or direct remarks about being ready at a moment's notice to jump right into the fray of another war betrays the very image we need to relearn to show.

America once walked with a swagger and no one messed with us. We got pushed very hard, and we gave that swagger away. If we want the rest of the world to trust us and believe in us being on the right side of things then we have to begin the fundamental work it's going to take to get it back. We'll get it back. But right now we have got to stop running around talking about how we'll kick everyone's butt. America needs to lead by example and not by threats.

[Fuck. I didn't mean to write an essay.]

2004- Kerry won DC,MA,RI,and VT by more than 20 po...

2008-09-12T02:58:00.000-04:00

2004- Kerry won DC,MA,RI,and VT by more than 20 points.
Nate Silver has Obama winning
DC by a 55 point margin. Obama has to win DC by a 80 point margin.
MA by a 13 point margin. Obama has to win MA by a 25 point margin.
RI by a 18 point margin. Obama has to win RI by a 21 point margin.
VT by a 22 point margin.
NY by a 14 point margin. Obama has to win NY by a 18 point margin.
MD by a 12 point margin. Obama has to win MD by a 13 point margin.
IL by a 12 point margin.
CT by a 14 point margin.
CA by a 9 point margin. Obama has to win CA by a 10 point margin.
HI by a 13 point margin.
ME by a 13 point margin.
DE by a 8 point margin.
WA by a 7 point margin.
NJ by a 8 point margin.
OR by a 5 point margin.
MN by a 6 point margin.
MI by a 2 point margin. Obama has to win MI by a 3 point margin.
PA by a 5 point margin
NH by a 3 point margin.
WI by a 6 point margin.
IA by a 6 point margin.
NM by a 2 point margin.
Obama states add up to 264ev.
The first state to give Obama the 270ev is
CO
Then OH and then NV.
VA and FL will narrowly go for McCain. but high Black vote will swing those states to Obama.

I would posit that Russia is more likely to go nuc...

2008-09-12T02:46:00.000-04:00

I would posit that Russia is more likely to go nuclear now because their conventional forces are so down, its the only true weapon they have. Cheaper, too in terms of men and material.