Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally L...

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2009-10-02T06:07:33.723-04:00

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2009-08-28T03:06:25.526-04:00

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2009-07-17T05:41:30.955-04:00

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2009-04-16T05:10:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-13T21:45:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-13T04:56:00.000-04:00

我堅定的認為此情不變可一切都被你化為雲煙

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2009-03-12T05:54:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:54:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T06:23:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T21:56:00.000-05:00

Yes we are blue!

2008-11-11T11:26:00.000-05:00

Yes we are blue!

red_rocka7 points out that Nebraska may switch bac...

2008-11-10T20:47:00.000-05:00

red_rocka7 points out that Nebraska may switch back to the winner-take-all racket which corrupts the Electoral College. That would be a shame.

To wit, if Florida had Nebraska's vote-by-district system in 2000, then any recount would have had only three electors at stake; the other 22 would have been evenly split by their respective congressional districts. Bush would have won at most 14 of that state's electors when he needed 24 to win. Gore needed four to win but received zero, thanks to winner-take-all.

Think about it.

Thanks for putting the Blue box on your map! I am...

2008-11-10T03:34:00.000-05:00

Thanks for putting the Blue box on your map! I am getting REALLY frustrated that NONE of the major news companies have updated their maps(CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC...). I agree that our (Nebraska's) uni-cameral will most likely overturn the law allowing for the electoral votes to be split, which is sad... This will probably be the one and ONLY time Nebraska Dems will get out little blue box. =(

Keep up the great work 538!

I prefer the terms "burgundy" and "indigo" to refe...

2008-11-09T18:17:00.000-05:00

I prefer the terms "burgundy" and "indigo" to refer to the "base" states, districts, or cities.

Example: "I grew up in the burgundy state of Nebraska, but currently live in the indigo city of New York City."

With the NE-02 win, I'm hoping the Democrats in Nebraska implement a strategy similar to that seen in Virginia.

The chief symbolic difference between Clinton and ...

2008-11-09T11:59:00.000-05:00

The chief symbolic difference between Clinton and Obama is that Clinton received 39% of the popular vote to Obama's 53%.

As for the "no northerner since FDR", what about T...

2008-11-09T10:17:00.000-05:00

As for the "no northerner since FDR", what about Truman?

Yes, I know, that is the mid-west, not the "north". But then, Obama is from Chicago with Kansas roots (as well as Hawaiian and others).

My bottom line here is, yes, I agree that one of things to celebrate is the end of the dems feeling that they need a southerner to win the presidency.

I think some of the other posters here - and dailykos on this subject - are closer to understanding the fine structure of this still nascent (but coming) realignment.

Several historic factors come into play.1) Since F...

2008-11-08T21:51:00.000-05:00

Several historic factors come into play.

1) Since FDR's win in 1944, the country has seen 60 years of elections pass and only one Northerner has won - and he wasn't permitted to live out his term. Until Obama.

2) The post Civil Rights/Voting Rights Act era shifted the voting power from the Dems to the GOP on the strength on the GOP's Southern Strategy, which was a racial and regional appeal. Only two Democrats won the presidency since (or three, if you count Gore) and all were Southerners until Obama. It was breaking that Southern stranglehold that was significant this time around.

Florida really is a split state because of so many Northern retirees. And Obama would have won without NC or VA, which certainly sends the message that the South's hold on the Oval Office, which had been slipping away, is now gone.

3) Let's also not forget that while Kerry made strategic errors in his campaign that caused his state-by-state performance totals to be weakened, without very thin losses in NM and IA, he would have been 6 EVs from a win. But he -and others, including the GOP - actually did a great job registering new voters and getting them to show up to vote: the total number of votes cast in 2004 exceeded the 1984 total for the first time in 20 years. In fact, I believe the increased number from 2000 to 2004 exceeded the increased number between 2004 and 2008.

Against a wartime President, Kerry deserved some kudos too.

4) Endless speculation about the Perot effect will never answer how Clinton would have performed without him, either in the popular or EV votes.

Similarly, the issues impacting voters in each election cannot be directly compared, so it's futile to argue who did better overall.

What is certain beyond guesswork includes:

a) the voting trends of VA, CO, and NV reached their anticipated culmination in 2008. It's possible that any above average Dem could have won those, but probably not by the margins Obama produced.

b) For a Northern candidate, Obama exceeded the slower Dem-moving trend in NC. He also outperformed expectations in IN, NH and Omaha.

c) In most states, Obama's ground game exceeded any in history by either party.

d) The rise of political blogs, the netroots factor in media critique and fundraising first mined by Howard Dean/Joe Trippi, the Kerry database building, the Dean 50-state strategy, the Team Obama approach to primary caucuses, an unpopular war and a massive economic crisis, plus some missteps by McCain all played a role in this result.

So all the arguments about who was the better campaigner are akin to asking if Muhammed Ali was a better boxer than Joe Louis. The answer to that is yes, no, and nobody will ever know, and it depends on what ruler you're using to measure with.

And ultimately, all that matters is that what did prove effective should be emulated while acknowledging that uncontrollable variables will always exist.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/presiden...

2008-11-08T19:57:00.000-05:00

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Look at the map by voting shifts.

1. Compare it to the American Factfinder map of "American" ancestry by county.

2. Gore's and Clinton's states (AR & TL) are the worst. What did they do for Obama? The same Nothing that they did for Kerry. The same nothing that Bentson did for Dukakis. The sooner we realize that Clinton was a fluke possible only with Perot, the sooner we can get over any notion that southern Democrats have any importance.

The RFK coalition became the Baroni Urban Ethnics and the Neighborhood Movement of the 70s and their progeny are the Obama coaltion.

The influx of these northerners into VA, NC, CO, NV, and FL is no coincidence. Nor is the high concentrations of Polish Americans and Czech Americans in the flipped NE district.

Thank you, Nate, for continuing to update. Most o...

2008-11-08T16:39:00.000-05:00

Thank you, Nate, for continuing to update. Most other news organizations seem to have forgotten about updating their election maps. I am so excited about the Nebraska results. Maybe I'll move back to Nebraska someday after all!

What amazes me is that there are still at least 10...

2008-11-08T12:24:00.000-05:00

What amazes me is that there are still at least 10 million uncounted votes, yet virtually nothing is being said about it in the media. Democrats aren't saying anything, Republicans aren't saying anything.

In California, there were 12 million votes cast in the 2004 presidential election, yet this year they've only reported 10 million and change while at the same time talking about a "record turnout."

No one says anything. Nate, you've mentioned it in passing, but that's all. As far as I'm concerned, the election results aren't in and may never be in.

Look, we saw the elections of 2000 and 2004 stolen by the Republicans. Now, because Obama looks like he won the 2008 election, everyone's going to walk away satisfied even though 10% of the votes aren't counted.

This just blows my mind. When the elections of 2010 and 2012 are stolen, the ones to blame will be ourselves. What a joke.

How many electoral votes would Obama have won if t...

2008-11-08T12:22:00.000-05:00

How many electoral votes would Obama have won if the entire nation used Nebraska/Maine's system?

Let's go for 376 -- recount MO!

2008-11-08T12:05:00.000-05:00

Let's go for 376 -- recount MO!

Having had the experience (fortunate or un-) of li...

2008-11-08T11:34:00.000-05:00

Having had the experience (fortunate or un-) of living through the Clinton era in KY, and of living through Bush in NC, I can assure you that it was much easier to "flip" KY for Clinton in '92 than it was to turn NC blue. In '92, Kentucky hadn't built an entrenched identity as a "red state." While it was "Southern," the cultural identity was more about being "Real Americans" in the working class sense than it was about Christianist "moral issues." The fallout of the culture wars has shifted red states to a very different terrain than they were when Clinton won - and he never won Indiana or North Carolina.

Obama won because he ran against and above those culture war divides, and because he forged a new coalition of Democratic voters. North Carolina is perhaps the clearest example of the diversity of Obama's coalition. His strength here came from African-Americans; students; upper and upper-middle class libs in the tech, banking, and academic sectors around Charlotte and the Research Triangle; "latte libs" in Asheville; military families around Fayetteville; and a wide array of working- and middle-class white voters on the coast and in the mountains. While Obama lost most of the NC mountain counties, his margins in many were remarkably close given the demographic breakdowns and historical voting records of the state.

My first vote was cast for Clinton/Gore - in Kentucky - so I don't want to diminish the difficulty of that campaign. But I do think that it's an apples-to-oranges comparison in the states flipped by C/G and those flipped by O/B. Besides, in '92, in Kentucky at least, we had nothing in terms of "ground game" to even compare to the efforts of the Obama campaign in North Carolina this year. Honestly, I've never seen anything like it.

Hey Nate, since the Missouri result is only "provi...

2008-11-08T10:34:00.000-05:00

Hey Nate, since the Missouri result is only "provisional" (is a recount going to be triggered by the narrow margin?) can't you put it in pink instead of red on the map?

David,I'd love for the presidential election go to...

2008-11-08T10:30:00.000-05:00

David,

I'd love for the presidential election go to a popular vote system, but I worry about a system that uses non-static boundaries to draw districts. Once a party controls the state government they gain some control over the distribution of electoral votes from that state. And it would probably be worse if districts were drawn at a federal level.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally L...

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我 堅 定 的 認 為 此 情 不 變 可 一 切 都 被 你 化 為 雲 煙

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Yes we are blue!

red_rocka7 points out that Nebraska may switch bac...

Thanks for putting the Blue box on your map! I am...

I prefer the terms "burgundy" and "indigo" to refe...

The chief symbolic difference between Clinton and ...

As for the "no northerner since FDR", what about T...

Several historic factors come into play.1) Since F...

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/presiden...

Thank you, Nate, for continuing to update. Most o...

What amazes me is that there are still at least 10...

How many electoral votes would Obama have won if t...

Let's go for 376 -- recount MO!

Having had the experience (fortunate or un-) of li...

Hey Nate, since the Missouri result is only "provi...

David,I'd love for the presidential election go to...

フランチャイズコンタクトレンズインプラント会社設立ショッピング枠　現金化お見合いグルー...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...

我堅定的認為此情不變可一切都被你化為雲煙