Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Maine

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2009-10-08T05:53:23.077-04:00

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2009-09-15T01:42:55.193-04:00

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2009-03-11T23:09:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:48:00.000-05:00

----"Conservative from Rome said otf pay attention...

2008-08-16T04:18:00.000-04:00

----"Conservative from Rome said
otf pay attention to reply me...why party id in Oregon is +10 DEM? ( in 2004 was +2 GOP...look cnn exit poll )"

Once again you RepubliCons take prode in your ignorance.

Spurce is the state election board. Do some research for once son.

Oregon party ID as of July 2008
43% Dem 33%Rep 24%other
Since 2004 to July 2008 went from Dem +67,480 to Dem +192,300

Heres a couple others for you:
IA 35Dem 30Rep 35other
Since 2004 to July 2008 went from rep +4400 to Dem +90,200

NV 43Dem 38Rep 19other
Since 2004 to July 2008 went from Rep +4400 to Dem +55,500

I could keep going but you can see the trend. I actually look up the voter Id numbers so I know whose pulling ID out of their backside, That's why OR is +10 as I said an not +4 in the erroneous poll and as you contend.

I would gladly support The National Popular Vote b...

2008-08-16T01:47:00.000-04:00

I would gladly support The National Popular Vote bill.

That would force a true 50+ state strategy and stop this crazy electoral imbalance.

To make every vote in every state politically rele...

2008-08-16T00:28:00.000-04:00

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

JohnNYC,I don't know if you will see this, but I w...

2008-08-16T00:06:00.000-04:00

JohnNYC,

I don't know if you will see this, but I would suggest that the RCP volatility is primarily due to the change in the mix of pollsters which make up the average.

During the month, particular pollsters flow into and out of the average, and each will always tend to have their own particular mix. The mix will change over time, but seems to move in a fairly steady manner from poll to poll for each particular pollster.

While I believe that is the reason for the volatility, I cannot offer any suggestions if you want to use the average as your dataset. My suggestion is that you do not use the average as a dataset, as I think it lacks any consistent framework, and is far too volatile.

clarkejeffrey wrote:I doubt Obama is +16 in MN.You...

2008-08-15T22:17:00.000-04:00

clarkejeffrey wrote:
I doubt Obama is +16 in MN.

You said its wrong now or its wrong before. It could be in the middle. Honestly, thats where I suspect it is.

Yes, but I also said "other factors being equal" Obama is at +16. I was illustrating how changing the PID back to the July ratio would yield a dramatically different number.

Here in MN, the caucuses went very heavily for Obama. Turnout was staggering. Think about that: record numbers turned out in the dead of the Minnesota winter to sit in jam-packed school classrooms, after walking a half-mile or more to park, and spent over two hours in an arcane and relatively Byzantine process to select Obama. In my Republican-dominated district, we had ten times the turnout of the Republicans. Hillary also didn't do particularly well, so this is a PUMA-free state.

2006 was also especially good for Democrats here. Tossed out a Bush clone Senator, and elected Keith Ellison and Tim Walz.

Kerry won by 100k out of roughly 3M voters; kind of tight. But the momentum has switched strongly, and I find it hard to believe that all those caucus-goers will sit out the GE. And, as I said, GOP foot-soldiers I've spoken with haven't seen any particular upturn in numbers or interest as the Rasmussen PID shows.
Latest DFL sources tell me Obama +10 in MN. Make what you will of that.

I doubt Obama is +16 in MN. You said its wrong now...

2008-08-15T21:45:00.000-04:00

I doubt Obama is +16 in MN.

You said its wrong now or its wrong before. It could be in the middle. Honestly, thats where I suspect it is.

I was always somewhat surprised at how high Obama was in MN and WI. They are typically tight swing states.

I don't think it's a grand conspiracy, either. The...

2008-08-15T20:16:00.000-04:00

I don't think it's a grand conspiracy, either. The weak link in the chain of integrity is the use of Fox afilliates. Garbage in, garbage out.

In the MN poll, there are only 3 possible options: the Party ID was wrong before, it is wrong now, or 100,000 voters switched Parties in the past 3 weeks in MN. The third option is patently ridiculous. If the first option is correct, then every poll for the past six months showing Coleman below 50% have all been seriously off base, and Minnesota wouldn't have dumped a GOP senator in 2006 by a wide margin.
That leaves the second option. The current D/R split Rassmussen shows for MN is considerably over-generous to Republicans. Simple algebra shows that, other factors being equal, Obama now is +16 in MN if the proper D/R ratio is used.

OTF,I'm not sure I'd go that far. I think we (poli...

2008-08-15T19:13:00.000-04:00

OTF,

I'm not sure I'd go that far. I think we (political junkies of both parties) are quick to think conspiracy theory where I'm not sure one exists.

Because his campaign is much more dependent on donors and volunteers, I think Obama actually benefits from having the race look closer than it is. If all the polls reported he was winning by 10and he was really winning by 3, that would be a disaster. Donors and volunteers would be complacent and Obama would lose the biggest competitive advantage he has.

Its a close race. I think Obama has a couple hidden advantages and he'll pull it out in the end, but we shouldn't kid ourselves and pretend this isn't a closely divided country.

I am aware that Rasmussen's tinkering is changing some numbers but I don't think its a grand conspiracy

Joel,Is that the best you can do, beg NAte to ban ...

2008-08-15T19:06:00.000-04:00

Joel,

Is that the best you can do, beg NAte to ban us from the board. If you don't like what I and Pete Kent write then don't read our posts.

You call us morons, is that not an unfounded attack!. What really is going on is that we speak the truth and you can't handle the truth, so you along with your left wing cronies want to censor the board so you'll can write back and forth Obama needs to win this state and this state and he'll be President and John McCain he's stupid, he doesn't know anything, the Repub.'s stole the election in 2000 and there was voter fraud in Ohio.

You just don't get it do you Joel, you'll nominated a loser. He is gonna get his ass kicked in November. Finally, Nate at 4:02, are you the real Nate, if so I want to tell you I liked what you wrote about the convention bounce. I didn't understand your mathematical equation, but I was wondering wouldn't it have been simpler for you to say, "What goes up, comes down." Just my opinion.

Todd Dugdale,I have been posting daily that Rasmus...

2008-08-15T19:04:00.000-04:00

Todd Dugdale,

I have been posting daily that Rasmussen is playing games to make the election look close right now. He wants to influence the election by making up a McCain shift going on by obvious fudging voter ID. The proof is blatant as you have shown. Rasmussen will fix his erroneous voter ID as the election gets closer so he can claim to be accurate. His agenda is clear and blatant trying to influence the election by false trends.

McCain: Georgia conflict is the ‘first serious cri...

2008-08-15T18:29:00.000-04:00

McCain: Georgia conflict is the ‘first serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War.’

Yeah, that's the foreign policy expertise I want running the country. The guy who STILL doesn't know the difference between Shiites And Sunnis. Or who cannot remember that Czechoslovakia is no longer a country -- not once, but at least 3 times. Mr. Foreign Policy expert who doesn't know that Iraq and Pakistan do not share a border. The man whose campaign says McCain doesn't speak for the campaign. The man that the campaign will no longer let decide for himself whom he can talk to on his cellphone.

A man who cannot use the internet or computers.

This man is not prepared to run much of anything. But certainly he is not prepared to run this country.

Well Dash I only use tracking polls as a thermomet...

2008-08-15T18:16:00.000-04:00

Well Dash I only use tracking polls as a thermometer. McCain stays steady while Obama has these rollercoaster hot and cold trends. This shows major instability in his support.

Darien,

This is potentially the funniest thing that I've ever read.

Its like saying: I'm not a Lakers fan. The Lakers are good one year and bad the next. I prefer to cheer for the Clippers. They are consistent. Every year, they are consistently among the worst teams in the league. Thats true consistency.

When will you guys finally recognize the truth. It is highly unlikely that McCain will ever get the majority of Americans he needs to get elected. There is one reason for this: George W Bush.

McCain needs two things:

90% of the Bush approvers.

30% of Bush disapprovers.

He has basically accomplished the first but he is nowhere near the second.

He has consistently gotten about 20% of Bush disapprovers.

Getting the other 10% will be extremely difficult.

I wouldn't go around claiming a consistent 42% in the polls as any sort of good thing.

Look at most of the Independents, they appear to b...

2008-08-15T18:06:00.000-04:00

Look at most of the Independents, they appear to be disaffected Republicans who turned on their party for Congressional corruption and excessive spending. Terry Schiavo didn't help them either. They are holding their powder to see if McCain flips them the bird with his VP choice or throws them a bone. By the RCP average, there are 13% undecided voters. 2% of the 13% will probably vote for 3rd party candidates but there is definitely fertile ground for McCain in the remaining 11%.

As for MN, Pawlenty must be a good politician to win re-election in MN in 2006 in an absolutely poisonous climate for Republicans even if it was by 1%. Kerry won by 3.4% in 2004 so it is not like this is a dark-blue state.

Jack Black and pete kent are total morons, Nate yo...

2008-08-15T17:59:00.000-04:00

Jack Black and pete kent are total morons, Nate you really need to ban people like that making unfounded attacks and insulting religions.

Darien, a vote for a third party is a wasted vote ...

2008-08-15T17:20:00.000-04:00

Darien, a vote for a third party is a wasted vote because the Electoral College system not permit that.
The direct vote yes.

Predict this:McCAIN: ONCE A CHEATER ALWAYS A CHEAT...

2008-08-15T17:13:00.000-04:00

Predict this:

McCAIN: ONCE A CHEATER ALWAYS A CHEATER?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0808/Bush_friend_and_Obama_supporter_raises_McCains_infidelity.html?showall

EXPLOSIVE STUFF

VICKI ISEMAN anyone?

I think that when it comes down to standing in the...

2008-08-15T17:09:00.000-04:00

I think that when it comes down to standing in the booth that most people will choose one of the two main candidates. Voting for a third party candidate is a wasted vote until a viable third party is established.

Viable would be a third party that can acually poll 25% or more of the electorate before being allowed to embarrass themselves. I know it sounds pretty un-democratic but I see voting for a third party as a protest and not helping to choose a leader or government. Including them in debates is even more of an insult to our system and a waste of time.

Kenny, you´re righy. I think New Hampshire is less...

2008-08-15T17:08:00.000-04:00

Kenny, you´re righy. I think New Hampshire is less liberal than Vermont and Maine. Vermont is the most liberal of three. They´re republican states in the past, but the original Republican Party isn´t the actually GOP.
The Republican Party were more proggresive than the Democratic Party and the Dems were more conservative. The real conservative party until 1968 was the Democratic Party.
Since 1968 it changes.

Christopher, Nice catch - - that's it exactly. Th...

2008-08-15T17:07:00.000-04:00

Christopher,

Nice catch - - that's it exactly. This is a mirror image of the 1980 election, when people were dissatisfied with the incumbent (and of course McCain is just a continuation of the incumbent, in the absence of a viable VP as presidential candidate), and waited until very late - - specifically, the debates - - to make up their minds. Enough of them were (unfortunately) reassured by Reagan's "presidential appearance" that it became a landslide.

There's very good evidence to suggest that the same outcome is in the offing here.

Nate (the Nate?),The name is Soetero, you best lea...

2008-08-15T17:04:00.000-04:00

Nate (the Nate?),

The name is Soetero, you best learn how to spell it. He could be your President. I think Barry had his name changed by his step dad after he adopted him and rought him to the Muslim faith.