Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pennsylvania Sanity Check

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2009-10-03T03:25:22.890-04:00

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2009-10-03T03:22:24.835-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:00:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-09T02:09:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T04:17:00.000-05:00

The problem has always been that polling is still ...

2008-11-02T08:31:00.000-05:00

The problem has always been that polling is still based on the assumption that the person being polled is actually telling the pollster the truth. The incorrectly named 'Bradley Effect' (should really be called the 'Bradley Paradigm') is completely relevant here.

I have been calling Pennsylvania McCain's all along (based on having lived there and knowing that the 'North of the Mason-Dixon' version of racism - which is you are third generation underemployed and will take your hate out on anyone different than you - is still alive and seething) - (and personal disclosure here I am hoping I am wrong), and while I think there is still a chance that external factors could help Obama (Pgh Steelers playe Wash Redskins Monday night... Obama supporters should pray for triple overtime)... I still see it as incredibly close and my own very unscientific methodology for compensating for Bradley Paradigm has it McCain +1. In other words too close to call, certainly within margin of error, but radically below most of the PA polls.

The good news for Obama supporters is that any tightening in the polls is more a reflecion of the 'lying racists' getting more confident in their ability to verbalize their true intent, and as such the Rassmussen numbers are just bringing a greater reality to the Pa Polls. Since I am still seeing it fall within 'margin of error too close to call' it is better than calling it McCain's (which as previously stated I have - but am softening it down to too close to call based on the decrease in Obama's lead). The bad news for America is that racism (both varieties, Northern and Southern) is still alive and well. How well will determine who our next President is. So in a true sense we have before us the single greatest litmus test for how racist parts of America still are. Elections - the true census of the 21st century.

To the commenter who suggested it was a great time...

2008-11-02T00:52:00.000-04:00

To the commenter who suggested it was a great time to be a black Phillies fan...I can do you even better:

I'm a bi-racial (black/white) Phillies fan, a Delawarean (go Biden!), with all my family roots (largely Evangelical/rural) in Pennsylvania.

It is sort of hard not to feel like the world revolves around us right now, yeah. LOL. :)

Mid-Atlantic USA - CRADLE of AMERICA! Woo! Let's win it back!

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama ...

2008-11-01T21:49:00.000-04:00

McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.

McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.

We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.

Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!

Please come back to PA!!!!

>> - Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White...

2008-11-01T17:12:00.000-04:00

>> - Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White House be in Honolulu?

Why not, it wouldn't be the first time. The Royal Hawaiian would need a good coat of paint though. A pink White House? Maybe the Chinese would still take the President seriously but that's about it. ;)

WV: glucco - a sugary sweet pink stucco

Early voting update:NC:-2,350,000 voted which is 6...

2008-11-01T16:58:00.000-04:00

Early voting update:

NC:
-2,350,000 voted which is 66% of total votes cast in 2004
-AA at 26.3%(6-7 pts above models in pollsters internals)
-turnout 52% Dem, 30% Rep, 18%In
-turnout women 56% which is 4% above pollster models
Couple things about this, in case it hasn't been mentioned (if it has and I missed the post, apologies): Inkstain mentioned about DINO (Democrats In Name Only) in that state. I assume these are largely Dixiecrats come back to being officially registered as Democrats for sentimental, family history reasons? If so that Dem number could be very soft in comparison to votes cast for a black man as president, as something like that could certainly activate a "Dixiecrat" vote.

The second this is that this is only the third Presidential election in which early voting has been available in North Carolina. It's possible that some of this growth in vote volume is from a natural growth in use of the service.

The problem with the Aunt story isn't in the detai...

2008-11-01T16:56:00.000-04:00

The problem with the Aunt story isn't in the details or spin, but straight up voter perception in key states. It's not coming from the McCain camp, so no risk of backlash, and it presses all the wrong buttons in places like VA, OH and IN:

Illegal immigrant,
Government housing,
Not white.

The first has been a hot button issue for about two years, and the last two were integral components of the despicable "Southern Strategy" that flipped the entire Solid South for a generation. Illegal campaign contributions are an added wrinkle that only make things worse. AP has picked it up, so it WILL get play this weekend; hopefully the early voting numbers hold up and it's not enough to turn the tide in CO, IA and NM. McCains people said last week they were writing off those states and, with the Kerry states, they put Obama at 273.

Interesting footnote: Switch NV for CO in that scenario and it's a 269 tie--putting it in the Democratically controlled House (I don't see even a narrow McCain win having enough coattails to flip the House. )

Call me paranoid, but I'm also still a bit worried about planned challenges in NV and OH, voting machines overruling voters in WV and (my personal fave) attempts by IN Republicans to have ALL early ballots in one county thrown out because they SUSPECT (without evidence) a few may be fraudulent. In other words, we're going to disenfranchise thousands (without telling them) because we suspect a few dozen may have voted illegally.

McCain MUST win:

FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, MO and GA.

Even if he does, he also can't lose more than ONE of CO, NV and/or NM (losing ND and MT is as bad as losing NV or NM, though I don't think that will happen.) Obama leads in all but two of those states and has a large national margin, so you know the GOP will be pulling out all the stops, legal and otherwise.

If there's one thing we should have all learned in 2000 it's that it's not over till it's over--and maybe not then, either!

The sheer volume of early vote nationwide and the disparity between Obama and McCain there definitely helps. But I'm on pins and needles till it's a done deal, and not entirely for purely political reasons; as a white liberal Southerner I think Obamas election could go a long way toward finally healing a wound that's plagued this nation since before it WAS a nation.

Word verification: "cizil" The sound of trickle-down theory getting the worst repudiation since Hoover invented it in 1930.

1. I predict Obama's maximum percentage is 53%, t...

2008-11-01T16:53:00.000-04:00

1. I predict Obama's maximum percentage is 53%, the most any Dem has gotten since LBJ's landslide. His max EVs are around 350.

2. Obama's aunt living in squalor in South Boston is the half-sister of his natural father (not his Asian stepfather as someone above suggested).

3. When hearing that registered Dem turnout in the South is running ahead of Repub turnout, keep in mind that many white Dems in the South vote like Repubs in Presidential elections.

4. If McCain is only behind by 3 points in PA in any legit poll as of Tuesday morning, he has a chance of a shocking upset there which would offset the loss of VA and CO.

If I understand your model for how state results a...

2008-11-01T15:58:00.000-04:00

If I understand your model for how state results are correlated (which I may not) PA is maximally correlated with OH. Hence a PA loss would imply an OH loss. So I'm wondering -- for the result you quote here, which of the following did you do:
1) run the Monte Carlo, select only cases where PA lost (and therefore OH also lost), and found that 89% of these cases were Obama wins, or
2) remove PA from your correlation model, hand it to McCain, and run that way, so in some cases Obama wins OH while losing PA.
And I'm sure I'm posting this too late to have any chance of an answer...

Here's an eye opening assessment from Rassmussen: ...

2008-11-01T15:38:00.000-04:00

Here's an eye opening assessment from Rassmussen: "In Missouri and North Carolina, the race remains a toss-up while McCain leads by five in his home state of Arizona. Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-160. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 313-160 . "

Notice something there... Rass is giving Obama very single toss up state. Everyone of them.

Wow.

Obama will win 385 EV. Stop stressing over PA, VA...

2008-11-01T15:35:00.000-04:00

Obama will win 385 EV. Stop stressing over PA, VA, CO, NC, IN, GE, FL, and OH - he'll win them all. It's called a landslide, people. Stop worrying and start acting like this is going to happen, get out and vote, take 3 people with you and MAKE IT HAPPEN!! Don't hope that the Election Fairy sticks a win under your pillow - GET OFF YOUR A@$ !!

McCain will lose. So will Palin. And, no, Palin is not a viable 2012 candidate, unless 2/3rd of the nation has a lobotomy between now and then. Please, there are enough idiots in this country to elect her this year, so if it doesn't happen, it won't happen, no matter how many extreme makeovers she has. She is not qualified, and nothing she will do will make her such.

Turnout will be the story. I wouldn't be surprised if election results will be delayed because of long lines in key states.

The big turnout story, however, will be WOMEN for Obama. It will overshadow Palin so much, she will become marginalized even more than she is (if possible).

Stupid America * (see definition below)will recede to their mudhuts and televangelists, clutching their gun, butter and religion. To move forward, these voters are not the patriots to take us there. These voters pull us back when we get cocky. Cocky is over. It's time to for real work, something Stupid America doesn't know how to do.

Obama has the potential to fundamentally change this nation for the better. McCain has no such ability. He couldn't make an independent decision if Sarah's life depended on it. He's is a unqualified as she is. Give the new guy a shot! He's smart, he knows what he wants to do, and he has a reason to execute the plan. Can't say the same for McCain - he's not smart (see ranking at US Naval), he doesn't know what he WANTS to do, he knows why he doesn't want to do the other guys idea, and he's not motivated (he likely dies before the next election).

What amazes me is when interviewed, McCain supporters actually say that they won't vote for Obama because he's a: communist, socialist, terrorist, eceterist. These people couldn't define any of those terms, nor have the intellectual curiosity to find out for themselves. And the news organizations EQUATE the legitimacy of that opinion to one that is more reasoned, researched, and balanced. CNN - stop that bullshit, and call people on the carpet. Why not ask these idiots, do you know what the word "communist" means? If they do, then print it - if not, stop making the rest of us have to listen to that meaningless crap!

My rant is over. GO BACK TO WORK MAKING THIS BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY FILLED WITH GREAT PEOPLE AND A GREAT FUTURE WHAT IT SHOULD BE!

* Stupid People - defined as those people too blinded by their prejudice or anger to see clearly the choices before them; not intellectually challenged, just impaired by their thinking minds.

fakevirginian wrote:In Todd We TrustThanks. I'm to...

2008-11-01T15:28:00.000-04:00

fakevirginian wrote:
In Todd We Trust

Thanks. I'm touched, really.

What is being overlooked here, not just in VA, is the immense amount of voter data that is being compiled. The data from the Kerry campaign was all lost, but this new data is even better. Even in states where Obama loses, the Democrats will come out ahead in the long-term because they will be able to effectively target supporters and conduct internal polling much, much easier in the future.

Millions in campaign funding will be saved in the mid-terms alone due to this database. The Party owes the Obama campaign a huge debt for doing the hard work that the Party should really have done in advance.

Hopefully, the Obama campaign will have enough money left over to do follow-up work after the election to sift out the actual voters from the potential voters.

FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN CONSPIRACY THEORIES (SUBT...

2008-11-01T15:14:00.000-04:00

FOR THOSE WHO BELIEVE IN CONSPIRACY THEORIES (SUBTITLE:THIS IS BORING STUFF BUT FOLLOW ALONG) -- The PA polling daily tracking poll has been wacked lately...As a PA resident, I've tracked the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll on a daily basis. Muhlenberg college is the pollster and Morning Call is the newspaper that sponsors the poll..There was a link from RealClearPolitics that pointed to internals via the Muhlenberg pollsters. That link was this: http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/ ......That was the routine UNTIL yesterday...The internals have NOT been posted from yesterday's results (Obama +10). That is also true for today's poll (Obama +8)...Muhlenberg's poll internals STOP at the 10/30 results (Obama +13)...Since 10/30, when you go to realclearpolitics site, you're linked to the Morning Call Newspaper site which displays the daily tracking RESULTS but has no details: http://www.mcall.com/ .....Why has Muhlenberg stop posting details?...Well the tracking model is a 5 day model. The results had been steady for Obama at @ 53%...The results were also steady for McCain at @ 41%....On 10/30, the Muhlenberg pollsters determined that there were 4% voters who were undecided...If we're to believe that, then ALL of those voters decided in the last 2 days to go to McCain. Moreover, the last 2 tracking days in PA MUST have McCain BEATING Obama with over 50% support...My theory is that the Muhlenberg Colleg Pollsters are embarrased by their numbers and we don't see ANY details on this big turn...Remember, this is not a 3 day tracker but a FIVE DAY tracker...If Obama loses 1 point and McCain gains 3 points in 48 hours, it means that McCain is WINNING the daily tracking poll in PA for the last 2 days...Muhlenberg College should post details and stand behind their findings...If not, the poll has lost it's integrity and realclearpolitics should not post results from Morning Call newspaper which does not link to any specifics.

Some important information:In 81 short hours time,...

2008-11-01T15:13:00.000-04:00

Some important information:

In 81 short hours time, (on the Fox News Channel), Barack Obama will be declared the 44th President of the United States.

Only a few more days before I will never have to h...

2008-11-01T15:09:00.000-04:00

Only a few more days before I will never have to hear the shrill, nasally voice of BibleBarbie on my answering machine again.

Oh, Tuesday, please hurry up!

~FL PUMA
Turn FL Blue! Vote Alan Grayson in FL-08 District!
WV = trubp. The sound McCain makes when someone reads him the poll numbers while he's eating.

mac maven said... What does AA mean? AA vote seems...

2008-11-01T14:48:00.000-04:00

mac maven said...
What does AA mean? AA vote seems to be mentioned often herein.l

AA = African American

What does AA mean? AA vote seems to be mentioned o...

2008-11-01T14:43:00.000-04:00

What does AA mean? AA vote seems to be mentioned often herein.l

Here's where all of the Mc polling info comes from...

2008-11-01T14:41:00.000-04:00

Here's where all of the Mc polling info comes from:

A reader writes in with details of what does sound like a more classic push poll, identifying itself as coming from the pro-McCain group Let Freedom Ring.

The reader from State College, Pa., Mike Furlough, writes:

After I identified the economy as my main election issue, the "questions" began alternating with what was labeled a "fact." Most of these statements had to do with Obama connections to Freddie Mac, and linked Obama to Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, asking if I trusted Obama to stand up to them when they want to raise taxes.

The other issue I could have identifed was "gay marriage and partial-birth abortion."

Please...can we stop the bed-wetting already? If O...

2008-11-01T14:40:00.000-04:00

Please...can we stop the bed-wetting already? If Obama loses Pennsylvania, this would mean McCain would have won in a landslide. For those inclined to see pictures, here's a comparison to 2004 when Kerry won by 2 points:

http://www.eatsblogsandleaves.com/2008/11/pennsylvania-reality-check.html