Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Travel Globally, Attack Locally

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T06:40:02.739-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-15T02:10:16.058-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

租車公司,行易花蓮租車旅遊網,花蓮,租車,花蓮,花蓮旅遊景點,花蓮,一日遊,一日遊,溯溪,賞鯨,泛舟...

2009-05-16T11:45:00.000-04:00

室內設計,室內設計,室內設計,裝潢,室內設計,室內設計室內設計公司,搬家公司,搬家公司,台北搬家公司...

2009-03-13T10:07:00.000-04:00

室內設計,室內設計,室內設計,裝潢,室內設計,室內設計室內設計公司
,搬家公司,搬家公司,台北搬家公司,搬家公司,室內設計
這一家租屋網免費刊登不用錢耶
搬家公司,健身,茶葉 A片,SEO,SEO,SEO,motel,led手電筒,棧板,二胎,隔熱紙,照明,健身,a383,a383,,二手家具,a383,胸章,車燈,
文山搬家,兼職小姐,南港搬家,大安區搬家,松山搬家,中山區搬家,八里搬家,
五股搬家,
泰山搬家,大同區搬家,中正區搬家,士林搬家,萬華搬家,

台北搬家公司,台北搬家公司,客人,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,加油棒,台中搬家公司,台北市搬家公司,台北縣搬家公司

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-11T23:19:00.000-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T23:18:00.000-04:00

希望大家都會非常非常幸福~「朵朵小語‧優美的眷戀在這個世界上，最重要的一件事，就是好好愛自己。好好愛...

2009-03-04T09:12:00.000-05:00

希望大家都會非常非常幸福~「朵朵小語‧優美的眷戀在這個世界上，最重要的一件事，就是好好愛自己。好好愛自己，你的眼睛才能看見天空的美麗，耳朵才能聽見山水的清音。好好愛自己，你才能體會所有美好的東西，所有的文字與音符才能像清泉一樣注入你的心靈。好好愛自己，你才有愛人的能力，也才有讓別人愛上你的魅力。而愛自己的第一步，就是切斷讓自己覺得黏膩的過去，以無沾無滯的輕快心情，大步走向前去。愛自己的第二步，則是隨時保持孩子般的好奇，願意接受未知的指引；也隨時可以拋卻不再需要的行囊，一路雲淡風輕。親愛的，你是天地之間獨一無二的旅人，在陽光與月光的交替之中瀟灑獨行。

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-15T22:10:00.000-05:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T22:42:00.000-05:00

Hoser,You make a pretty convincing argument, altho...

2008-08-11T15:35:00.000-04:00

Hoser,

You make a pretty convincing argument, although nowhere near convincing enough. I could go through point-by-point why I'm still voting for Obama, but I will say this:

If the McCain campaign aired your arguments instead of ads comparing Obama to Brittany Spears and Moses, they would probably have a lot better chance of winning. His campaign is doing him an enormous disservice as it is.

McCain's ties...http://blogumentary.typepad.com/ch...

2008-08-11T12:56:00.000-04:00

McCain's ties...
http://blogumentary.typepad.com/chuck/2008/07/john-mccains-us.html
"I interviewed author Irwin Tang at Netroots Nation about his new book, Gook: McCain's Racism and Why It Matters. Tang actually goes into much more detail than you see in this video, for example McCain's connection to white supremacy groups, his vote against making MLK a national holiday, and his personal funding of contra guerillas.

For God's sake, people, take the tit-for-tat attac...

2008-08-11T09:42:00.000-04:00

For God's sake, people, take the tit-for-tat attacks on the two major party candidates somewhere else. There are numerous sites that are appropriate for such wastes of bandwidth.

Nate and Sean's preferences in the election are both obvious and explicit. Neither, however, focuses on which candidate's policies or character makes him a better presidential choice. Their analysis is resolutely directed toward the relative effectiveness of each candidate's campaign.

One may reasonably disagree with that analysis and cite counter-evidence. It is not reasonable to attack either their preferences or those of other posters.

Don't feed the trolls.

I think Obama will soon realize that you cannot tr...

2008-08-11T09:35:00.000-04:00

I think Obama will soon realize that you cannot treat the general election like 50 separate caucuses and that you need to paint in bold strokes (even negative ones) to truly give your candidacy some lift.

Here and there a targeted approach may give you a small boost, but it is likely to be confined. A lot of energy will be going into finding 100s of Yucca mountains worth of small negative attacks that eventually move the polls.

That atrategy is one more indication of Obama really just sitting on his ball and looking for an opportunity of defense to possibly score a few points.

Right now with an apparent 5% lead in the polls generally, it may appear successful, but already the drumbeat is starting that he cannot get over 50% adding to the concern that he is underperforming the Democrat brand.

McCain is using August to neutralize Obama's appeal and make sure he gets only a limited, transitory bounce from his convention. Thus far it has worked.

Obama had two huge opprotunites to move the polls in July: His trip and al-Maliki's endorsement of a timetable. The CV is that both have hurt him.

McCain, like Clinton of old, remains very much in the race. He may have even learned a thing or tow from her apparently failed strategy.

McCain has said that he no longer supports his own...

2008-08-11T07:15:00.000-04:00

McCain has said that he no longer supports his own 2006 bill for immigration reform.

Does he actually support it or not?

How exactly can you predict what he will do as president when he has recently changed on so many positions?

hosertohoosier: "with McCain you can at least pred...

2008-08-11T06:55:00.000-04:00

hosertohoosier: "with McCain you can at least predict what you will get from his record. With divided government, President McCain will probably resemble McCain 2000 the most."

Since McCain began preparing for his presidential bid, he has flipped on nearly every issue that separated him from George W. Bush. For example, he once called Bush's tax cuts for the rich "unconscionable," but now somehow he supports them. Will he actually fight to give tax breaks to the rich or not? I don't think anyone can say for sure, but I think McCain in his old age is increasingly becoming a product of his handlers.

hosertohoosier,"There is little difference between...

2008-08-11T06:45:00.000-04:00

hosertohoosier,

"There is little difference between Obama and McCain on most key issues. Both favour a withdrawal from Iraq, with more troops to Afghanistan."

McCain never talked about a timetable before al-Maliki endorsed Barack's 16 month timetable. Every indication is that he does NOT want to pull out of Iraq, but he has adopted a quasi-timetable simply because his previous position became untenable. Worse than that though, McCain has repeatedly indicated that there will be "other wars" if he is elected. McCain has harshly criticized Russia and has Georgian lobbyists working on his campaign so the new war war between Russia and Georgia combined with McCain's repeated jokes about bombing Iran makes his potential presidency very scary.

"Obama probably wins on healthcare, but remember that Obama is going to be thinking about re-election, and visions of the 1994 midterms will dance in his head."

Americans actually favor universal healthcare by large margins now. For example, in this 2007 poll, when asked whether Government should guarantee health insurance for all, 64% said yes and only 27% said no: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/03/01/opinion/polls/main2528357.shtml

Unless it is badly implemented, I don't see how it would hurt Obama's reelection bid.

Oh and the most important argument to hipsters is ...

2008-08-11T06:11:00.000-04:00

Oh and the most important argument to hipsters is that voting for McCain would be ironic.

Barry, I actually agree that Obama will suck modes...

2008-08-11T04:51:00.000-04:00

Barry, I actually agree that Obama will suck modestly but your reasoning lacks internal consistency.

Apparently, Obama will 1. not live up to his promises, but 2. also get lots of socialism stuff done (since you are American and have no conception of how nutty actual social democrats* are I assume that you think Obama's platform is socialist). Doesn't that sort of mean he is fulfilling his promises (which, as far as I can tell, have not included lowering gas prices in the short term or strengthening the dollar).

Your other accusations are over-the-top. Yes Obama is for withdrawing troops from Iraq, as is President Maliki, and JOHN MCCAIN. Likewise Obama's energy policy differs from McCain only in that Obama emphasizes renewables over nuclear. However, neither new nuclear plants nor alternative energy will be online in 4 years (or 8).

Finally, you suddenly switch from telling a mostly liberal forum audience that their policies are bad (and that Obama will implement them), to trying to scare them with a future Republican resurgence. That line of reasoning is not going to be effective unless people believe that liberal policies are bad in the first place.

I would suggest that you direct your argument to your audience (mostly liberal political junkies) if you want to actually convince people.

My case for McCain/against Obama

1. Divided government is good
We all know the GOP is going to continue to not control congress, so president McCain would mean divided government. The record of divided government is pretty good - it produced the change of strategy in Iraq, and balanced budgets (plus important economic reforms) in the Clinton years. United government produces wasteful spending because a majority of each branch has an incentive in maintaining the status quo with Christmas tree bills - this even happened when purportedly fiscally conservative Republicans had the house, senate and presidency.

2. There is little difference between Obama and McCain on most key issues. Both favour a withdrawal from Iraq, with more troops to Afghanistan. Both favour drilling. Both have the same effective position on gay marriage (let the states handle it). Both favour comprehensive immigration reform and building a fence.

3. McCain's environmental plan is better AND more French. France consumes 1/3rd the oil per capita that Americans do because it is 78% nuclear. Those nuclear plants emit no C02, and produce the lowest cost energy per kilowatt hour (nuclear is costly because of high startup costs). By contrast, after much investment in solar, wind, etc. by the French and Germans, those sources provide about 3-5% of their energy mix.

Moreover, Obama is a huge shill for big ethanol, which, if you account for land-use costs and the energy costs of farming corn for fuel, is (according to a recent article in Nature) worse for the environment than oil. Now, sugarcane is 8 times as potent and probably a good alternative - too bad that Obama supports restricting trade with Brazil on that front (while McCain doesn't).

4. McCain will be a better multilateralist, in spite of Obama's popularity overseas. McCain has a record as a free trader, and has spoken of the need for a league of democracies. In particular, he has proposed getting Brazil and India, two rising powers of the future, UN security council seats, and incorporating them into the broad western Democratic alliance. Moreover, like Richard Nixon, McCain has been a hawk in the past, and politically can do reconciliatory things without getting called a wimp. Obama, by contrast, fears being perceived as weak, and just might overreact in a crisis (eg. his remarks on sending troops into Pakistan).

5. For lefties, Obama probably wins on healthcare, but remember that Obama is going to be thinking about re-election, and visions of the 1994 midterms will dance in his head. So Obama's already less-than-universal plan will probably get watered down some more.

The other big issue of concern for lefties would be supreme court appointments. However, a few things are worth noting. First, Bush did not make appointments aimed at overthrowing Roe v. Wade, his primary aim was appointing judges that would expand presidential power and approve torture. Secondly, no Republican actually wants to overturn Roe V. Wade, since it is a great tool to get poor people to vote for them.

Obama is the Che Gueverra t-shirt of presidential candidates - a slickly marketed product that realizes the benefits of co-opting aspects of the prevailing "counter-culture". McCain differs little on the issues, but in two key respects, may actually be a better president than Obama for lefties - in addition to the fact that with McCain you can at least predict what you will get from his record. With divided government, President McCain will probably resemble McCain 2000 the most. Obama, on the other hand, really has no record (even in the Illinois senate he liked changing his votes retrospectively, claiming he pressed the wrong button, because stances he took were too controversial). If you are secretly hoping that he is lying and will lurch to the left after winning, you are ignoring his re-election motives, and the fact that in his short time in office, he has happily wheeled to the center when convenience required it.

*Canada's NDP thinks the government should run banks and that western intervention in Haiti is evil imperialism.

Barry: "What kind of evil does McCain have connect...

2008-08-11T03:21:00.000-04:00

Barry: "What kind of evil does McCain have connection to?"

George W. Bush.

Also off the top of my head: Charles Keating, John Hagee, Jerry Falwell,

and his many evil campaign aides/lobbyists, including Rick Davis, Charlie Black, and Steve Schmidt

The warmonger McCain would be an absolutely terrible president.

@ Barry:Please give us your definition of socialis...

2008-08-11T03:15:00.000-04:00

@ Barry:

Please give us your definition of socialism.

lmao at all you Obammunists thinking that hooiser ...

2008-08-11T03:07:00.000-04:00

lmao at all you Obammunists thinking that hooiser owned me. no matter what he said it doesn't change the fact that Obama has connections to terrorist Ayers and racist Wright.

What kind of evil does McCain have connection to? None, that's right.

If Obama gets elected he is a one term president. Won't live up to his promises, and the people won't like socialism once its actually in place. The dollar will weaken due to all his handouts and government programs, he won't do anything to lower gas prices during his term, and no viable alternative energy sources will be ready. After he pulls out of Iraq and all the progress we made there goes in reverse due to the rise in insurgency because we pulled out, that will turn off even more people no matter how hard the media tries to keep it on the down low. If Obama is elected, Republican resurgence and landslide in 2012. I am talking Reagan-Carter landslide.

All you liberals need to move to Cuba or Vietnam where your political views fit more.

Yes, hosetohoosier, very well played.On a side not...

2008-08-11T02:59:00.000-04:00

Yes, hosetohoosier, very well played.

On a side note, I actually DO want to know the motivations of trolls. What do they wish to accomplish? Emotional release, perhaps? Posting for their own benefit only?

That's some high-grade mockery, hosertohoosier! Ni...

2008-08-11T02:42:00.000-04:00

That's some high-grade mockery, hosertohoosier! Nice!

A whole lot of people don't know what they are tal...

2008-08-11T02:20:00.000-04:00

A whole lot of people don't know what they are talking about.

So many of you don't understand that projecting a coherent positive trait while drawing contrast with that trait in your opponent's character requires TWO FACTORS:

Negative ads that raise questions about your opponents strength. Positive ads that prove you have the strength your opponent lacks.

All of you who think that McCain will successfully draw any contrast with Obama live on another planet.

Unlike W, who painted Kerry as weak to his strong, McCain is extremely weakened by his mere presence.

However unacceptable McCain tries to project Obama, he simply lacks the character traits to project himself as the acceptable candidate.

Even if Obama is portrayed as an FOREIGN candidate, McCain will have painted himself as equally dangerous and SENILE.

McCain cannot draw contrasts with Obama and thus he will lose.

Barry, I have to ask what you hope you will accomp...

2008-08-11T02:13:00.000-04:00

Barry, I have to ask what you hope you will accomplish by your statement. I mean really, what is it that makes Barry tick.

Do you think that anybody on this site will suddenly, thank to your comments, be like "Oh my god Barry is right. Obama IS friends with Reverend Wright AND Bill Ayers. Holy crap, what a MORON I've been. Hey guys, don't flame Barry for being a troll (according to my 2nd edition D&D monster's manual acid will also do the trick). He may be large and green, but you know, he is a lot like us folks. Liberals have thought too much about the welfare of the poor veterans sleeping under bridges - and far too little about the honest, hardworking trolls that guard our bridges, and bring us deep truths."

*A hush came over fivethirtyeight.com*

Then, a lone poster walked up amidst the crowd and clapped slowly.

*Awkwardness ensued*

But then a second, and then a third, and soon all the posters rushed forth in a crescendo of support, shouting "Barry, Barry!"

But humble Barry just shook his head. "No friends," he paused for dramatic effect. "I am not the one you need to cheer for, because I am but a humble servant of a higher power. Today, let us cry out: McCain-somebody '08!"

Miraculously, from the sheer force of spontaneous will of dozens of converts, the polls reported on "today's poll's" all shifted. McCain was at +10 in Ohio, +2 in Massachusetts, as pollster after pollster reported a massive groundswell in support for McCain.

Yes people, McCain's victory started here, with one man, nay, one crusader for the truth, whose repetition of Fox News talking points that one critical extra time finally broke Obama's back. But if you ask him if he is responsible for McCain's victory, Barry will simply wink at you, as he quietly goes about his day.