Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 6/30

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2009-10-08T08:16:46.253-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:25:45.064-04:00

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2009-09-11T01:25:11.842-04:00

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2009-03-18T07:16:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-12T23:02:00.000-05:00

Nate,To what extent do you think that land-line on...

2008-07-01T14:59:00.000-04:00

Nate,
To what extent do you think that land-line only surveys introduce sampling bias into the data? Do you know if polling firms adjust data for demographic differences in households who are cell only?

Clearly, younger people are more likely to not have land-line telephones:

"Age is another factor in landline abandonment, as 18-24 and 25-29 year-olds were far more likely to go wireless (31 and 34.5 percent, respectively) than adults aged 30-44 (15.5 percent), 45-64 (8 percent), and 65 or older (2.2). Adults living in poverty (27.4 percent) were more likely to live in a household with wireless telephones than those with higher income."

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080514-more-americans-snipping-landlines-in-favor-of-cell-phones.html

If, as we seem to be seeing, there is a large demographic disparity between Obama supporters and McCain supporters, do you think land line only surveys are biased towards McCain?

Interested in your thoughts...

Public Policy Polling just released numbers for Fl...

2008-07-01T14:58:00.000-04:00

Public Policy Polling just released numbers for Florida - 46/44 Obama.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida701.pdf

"I wonder if the media will mention nearer the ele...

2008-07-01T14:14:00.000-04:00

"I wonder if the media will mention nearer the election that a tie is certainly possible"

I think this will be mentioned far, far more often than the actual likelihood of it happening would merit.

The press will always overplay the most chaotic possible outcome of anything. Bank on it.

3 of the last 5 polls in Florida show Obama with l...

2008-07-01T13:44:00.000-04:00

3 of the last 5 polls in Florida show Obama with leads from 2-5 points. The two that don't show him with a lead are both from Rasmussen (6/18 and 6/26). Interesting.

PPP has Obama ahead in Florida 46-44. Like I said ...

2008-07-01T13:19:00.000-04:00

PPP has Obama ahead in Florida 46-44. Like I said above, it is way too early to be throwing in the towel in Florida.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Florida701.pdf

Interestingly, the poll shows Obama ahead among men voters and behind among women.

The party ID numbers are Dem 42% Rep 42%. Perhaps Nate can comment as to whether that is realistic or underestimates the Dem vote.

@another mikeThnx!

2008-07-01T11:30:00.000-04:00

@another mike

Thnx!

A few days ago, there was some consternation in th...

2008-07-01T11:26:00.000-04:00

A few days ago, there was some consternation in the comment section over a Virginia poll that SUSA released that showed Obama with "only" 74% of the African-American vote. Most dismissed it as a statistical fluke.

PPP just released a North Carolina poll and it shows--75% of the African-American vote going for Obama. Actually, their previous NC poll, taken at the end of May, showed only 72% African-American support in NC. And a recent PPP in Virginia? AA support for Obama is 67%.

While their are plenty of other recent polls from the region that show higher AA support for Obama, I don't think we can reject the lower support numbers out of hand. There may be something in methodology that's contributing to the spread (determining "likely voters" or something like that).

Bottom line: the derision that greeted the SUSA Virginia poll does not appear to be deserved. They have plenty of company.

Gris, PUMA is the name of a group of bitter Clinto...

2008-07-01T11:24:00.000-04:00

Gris, PUMA is the name of a group of bitter Clinton supporters who intend to vote for McCain, formed after Obama won the nomination. They generally believe Obama ran a sexist campaign against Clinton and that he had the nomination handed to him by party insiders. They really are better characterized as Obama haters than Clinton supporters. PUMA is an acronym for Party Unity, My Ass.

I think the original post and the comments strongl...

2008-07-01T11:06:00.000-04:00

I think the original post and the comments strongly suggest it's time for an update of critical analysis of the swing "voters".

1. Show us an updated regression model with the coefficients.

2. Discount the general drift toward Obama and focus in on what groups of people are shifting from McCain or undecided to Obama WHERE it actually matters. That Mormons or "American/United States Ancestry Responders" are generally shifting to Obama is really of little impact because Obama still ain't going to win UTAH, Kentucky, Tennessee, the South. But IF Catholics (e.g.) aren't drifting as much toward Obama (the change in the regression coefficients over time should tell us the answer), then this will make a big difference in November, if the race tightens as we should all expect it will. Moreover, this will provide information on whether subtle and nuanced changes/fine tunes to the "language" of the message and/or or where to make ad buys (small local "ethnic" press) and/or what kinds of mid-size and smaller cities, suburbs, and counties Obama should visit (i.e. high catholic, Italian, Polish, and/or "catholic Irish" in BATTLEGROUND states. see "definition of must-win")

3. My own regression model is a bit different that this one in that it concentrates on the Census Ancestry responses. You can predict the "relative" Democratic strength based upon ancestry pretty well. From Republican to Democrat

"American/US", English, German, French, Irish, Italian, Polish, non-Cuban Hispanic, Afr. Amer.

It's almost always going to be in this order - everywhere: The difference between whether a Congressional District votes for a Democrat for House but a Republican for President, is not in the change of order but that at some point on the continuum between Italian and Polish you start seeing the majority tip one way or another. E.g. if I see that ~52% of Polish and and ~51 of Italian of the national aggregate generic vote are going for the Republican candidate then you can pretty well predict that the Democrat isn't going to win.

Or religious scale, you see a persistent ordering: Mormon, Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, non-affiliated, agnostic, atheist.

Of course, these are generalities and "tendencies" but that is what you use in statistical analysis.

It is because Ancestry and Religion are not uniformly or randomly distributed across the states that you can create models.

4. The McCain states are the McCain states, the Obama states are the Obama states. There are about 18-20 states which form the battleground. It will not be generic drifts toward the likely winner that make the difference in a close election but reaching out to those swing voter blocks which are not some "generic working class whites" or "worker class women" or "women". That is a mistake that leads down the idea that winning over "American Ancestry" or WASPs is the key for Obama. They are really not "swing" voters, in the sense that in states that matter (the battleground for this election) that group will "swing" from < 50% to > 50%. The same is true for "women" as some kind of group.

The election is change vs. status quo, the is an important psychological bias in decision making that is an opportunity and a challenge for Obama.

Obama might thing of individuals as complex musical "chords". In answering the question "who am I and who are we", the chords of who we are involve notes that resound from neighborhood, ancestry, family, state, education, age, class, etc.

Sometimes, when playing the riffs that make up political stump speeches, you need to understand that while C6 and Amin7 are the same thing but how you think about them may change how you solo over them. A riff that might have worked for Bill Clinton in Arkansas is not the riff that Obama needs to use in Toledo or Pittsburgh or Scranton. This is important because Arkansas is not in play for Obama but OH is.

Ancestry and Religion are subtle and nuanced things. They can't be used like a ax to split some wood, they have to be used like a instrument in the context of complex improvisational song.

Descending from soapbox.

I think that Cugel has a point about the confedera...

2008-07-01T08:49:00.000-04:00

I think that Cugel has a point about the confederate states. However, I am with Jonathan. This is a party building opportunity.
If Obama increases African American turn out but generates a back lash among underprivileged and elderly whites, we will be in a strong position in 2012.
By then the fear will have abated. People will come back while African American participation will remain at high levels.
That's what happened with the Catholic vote in 1932, for example. They had been brought into the Democratic fold by Al Smith's campaign.
Compared to Smith, Obama is a much stronger candidate, of course, but I do suspect that there might be a less pronounced Smith effect this year.
If that is true, the Carolinas and Georgia will be quite competitive in 2012 and most importantly for state office elections.
That's critical because redistricting is coming up in the wake of the 2010 census. Therefore, Obama ought to take the long view and cultivate Southern states even if we cannot win there right now.

@Blame:You're right that positions seems to be fir...

2008-07-01T08:20:00.000-04:00

@Blame:

You're right that positions seems to be firming. Obama has gone from 41% unfavorables to 53% in just one week (and from 29% Very Unfavorable to 40%). On the other hand, McCains favorables do not rise much. And his current support, 48%, is actually lower than some of his spring results.

Also, as some comments in the "Internal Polls" thread have pointed out, there are reasons to be sceptical about Rasmussens offshore drilling questions. And in the end, I would be surprised if the issue turns out to be the major factor in deciding the Florida election.

I have just had a look at that latest Florida poll...

2008-07-01T07:19:00.000-04:00

I have just had a look at that latest Florida poll.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

At first sight it apears Obama is winning. 7% behind but an improvment on last weeks 8% behind.

The devil is in the detail. Positions are firming and there are 3% less dont knows. Obama is getting locked into a loosing position.

The reason is a surprise. Most Florida voters back drilling. I guess that when it comes to the crunch they prefer cars to beaches!

Sadly I am not surprised. By oposing drilling Obama is loosing the argument over the Economy, and "Its the Economy stupid". In the end if the Voters don't trust Obama with the Economy he won't be President.

So if I believe in drilling why am I an Obama supporter?

I like to think of myself as a realist. I know that in the end every last drop of oil is going to be drilled, pumped and used. It is a battle already lost.

But there is a battle that can be won. We have the choice of ether investing properly in the transition to alternatives, or waving a green flag & offering prizes for a better car battery.

Oil is only going to get more expensive. It is push hard for green now or end up with an economy so devastated that the resorces are just not available later.

I desperatly hope that Obama will soften his stand on drilling. Half a cake is better than none & offshore drilling could end up paying for a lot of wind turbines.

On the subject of Ohio, could anyone assess the ri...

2008-07-01T07:14:00.000-04:00

On the subject of Ohio, could anyone assess the risk of a repetition of the pictures of long queues in heavily Democratic inner-city precincts we saw in 2004? Is there a chance that the current Democratic administration can do better, and will this actually be able to influence the result?

Also, do you see any other state where the administration of elections might influence the results?

As for Ohio...color me unconvinced.I suspect that ...

2008-07-01T06:41:00.000-04:00

As for Ohio...color me unconvinced.

I suspect that Democrats are going to be sorely disappointed there (again) in 2008. Large parts of the state are just far too backward for Obama to be victorious. Whereas Michigan draws on the natural Upper Midwestern progressiveness and Pennsylvania sits in the orbit of east-coast cosmopolitanism, Ohio has neither of these moderating influences.

Hopefully though, it won't matter, as Obama racks up victories in Virginia and Western states.

My predictions about Florida are already coming to...

2008-07-01T06:24:00.000-04:00

My predictions about Florida are already coming to pass. It is NOT a swing state and Obama should largely ignore it. The one and only Southern state the Obama camp should focus on is Virginia (and even then, that's only because of the influx of Northeasterners and Midwesterners to Fairfax County).

Other than that, "It's The WEST, Stupid!!"

Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Alaska, and North Dakota. Significant swing votes to be mined there. Oh sure, I hear you all saying "but SG, Florida is much closer than MT or ND". Yes, fair enough, but I look at trends moreso than polling performance. Florida is stagnant at +5 for McCain, and won't change. The aforementioned Western states, on the other hand, are trending Democratic and ripe for the picking. Throw in Indiana, an Iowa take-back, and all the Kerry states, and you've got the makings of a big Obama victory.

I strongly recommend a Western strategy this election for the Democrats - I think it would pay big dividends.

Obama, Go West young man!

It would be a catastrophic error of judgment for O...

2008-07-01T05:01:00.000-04:00

It would be a catastrophic error of judgment for Obama to give up on Florida. Leaving aside the fact that only Rasmussen has him behind and Quinnipiac and ARG have him ahead (and Tom Jensen from PPP has indicated above that PPP will today have it as a toss up), it is vital that Obama commits resources to the state to ensure that McCain spends money there also. Florida is an expensive media market and the longer McCain spends there the less time and money he has to fight in the states that will decide the election.

In that respect, JGabriel has it absolutely right. Obama's priority is to hold PA and MI and fight to win OH for the simple reason that McCain probably cannot win the presidency unless he takes two of these. Obama is going to win the Kerry states plus IA and NM which gives him a total of 264. If he does this, he then has multiple avenues to victory. If he wins OH, it is over. If he wins CO, it is over. If he wins VA it is over. If he wins IN, it is over. I can go on.

The point is that while Obama could win other states such as IN, MO, NV and FL (not to mention lesser possibilities such as AK, ND, MT and GA), his absolute priority is to secure the PA, MI, OH triangle. With those states in the bag, he can spend the rest of his money in a bunch of other states to make sure McCain has to do the same.

I see this is a reversal of 2004 where Kerry put all his eggs in the OH/FL basket and came up short. This time the Dems are playing offense and the Evil Empire are on defence praying for a miracle in PA or MI. I like that.

I still believe that Ohio will be crucial in this ...

2008-07-01T04:53:00.000-04:00

I still believe that Ohio will be crucial in this election - it is the closest of the big swing states, and it is McCain's only hope to throw all he's got at it.

According to Nate's predictions, if McCain loses Ohio, his chances of winning the election are only 12.56%. If McCain loses Ohio, his chance of victory is only 9%.

Florida is not lost if...Florida was safe blue for...

2008-07-01T04:02:00.000-04:00

Florida is not lost if...

Florida was safe blue for Hillary so why must it be out of reach for Obama?

Hillary convinced the voters that they had been ripped off (true) that it was Obama's fault (false) and that she was going to fight till the bitter end to do something about it (false).

Now she should go back & spend the rest of the campaign undoing the damage. She has to tell them that she was economical with the truth, and it was never Obama's fault. She is the only one who can clean up her mess.

That will be humiliating but she is efectivly demanding something like $10,000,000 for the job.

What's the point with the pumas? I don't get it......

2008-07-01T02:56:00.000-04:00

What's the point with the pumas? I don't get it...

And no, I'm not thick, I'm just Dutch :-)

@ J Gabriel:An imfortant factor with states like t...

2008-07-01T02:31:00.000-04:00

@ J Gabriel:

An imfortant factor with states like those is the media buys may be quire inexpensive. I have no real idea how much it would cost to cover enough of one of those sates to put it in play, but it might be small.

As an illustration, although NM is alrady targeted, media buys in Albuquerque cover most of the state (at least through cable) and essentially nothing that isn't in the state. the little Texas counties get their TV from Lubbock TX, and the Las Cruces area gets it from El Paso, but I seem to recall that the ABQ stations were available on cable in Las Cruces.