Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: New Mexico

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2009-10-03T04:26:09.039-04:00

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2009-09-25T08:12:33.414-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:39:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:38:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-09T03:16:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T05:17:00.000-05:00

the district 2 race is going utterly unnoticed by ...

2008-10-30T07:10:00.000-04:00

the district 2 race is going utterly unnoticed by most politicos. strangely they seem to be fascinated by Heinreich. wtf?

i blame our late results on the mandatory recounts if the election is close...
and our wholeheartedly inept electoral preparations and overall system.
we kinda suck as a state but I still wouldn't live anywhere else.

"Poblanically"--a wonderful nonce-word, with false...

2008-10-28T19:31:00.000-04:00

"Poblanically"--a wonderful nonce-word, with false overtones of "popular."
That poblano peppers aren't very hot is besides the point. They are rich in flavor, which makes them appropriate for the headline.
(Afterall, would you trust your esophagus or your polity to the spicy and probably communist habanero?)

Hard pressed to find any McCain supporters here in...

2008-10-28T13:17:00.000-04:00

Hard pressed to find any McCain supporters here in Santa Fe. Sarah's a laughing stock.

After the census, they'll just carve out the heart...

2008-10-28T13:10:00.000-04:00

After the census, they'll just carve out the heart of Albuquerque and/or part of Rio Rancho to form the new district. That way Albuquerque metro has "part" of all four Congressional Districts.

Seriously, I'm in CD1. I drive TOWARD the center of town, and I have to go through CD3 to get there?!? That is the problem when one small area holds half the state's population.

On a "depressing" note, one of the Union canvassers came by trying to drum up support for Heinrich. She was less than energized about it. Here is a half-page description for him. "I know there have been a lot of negative ads about him." Just nothing.

I'm a new addict to 538- what a great site! When ...

2008-10-28T11:47:00.000-04:00

I'm a new addict to 538- what a great site! When I drove cross-country a few years back, New Mexico was my surprise favorite place along the way.

Two thoughts on the statistics:

-It would be interesting to see the Jewish population statistics in the religious affiliation section. It seems that the generally-left-leaning Jewish population makes a difference in states like MA, NY, IL, FL, and PA. I know the correlation of religious and political affiliation wouldn't be as strong as among Evangelicals, but might be comparable to Catholics (am i mistaken on that point?). I would think that this group would be at least as politically influential as the Mormon religion in most states (especially on the East Coast).

-I'm interested to see which state has the highest ratio of same-sex households. My guesses- CA, NY, MA, VT, ME, OR, CT- have already been covered, and unless I overlooked something (totally possible), none of them won the coveted title, and New Mexico was my next guess. Of the remaining states, any would be a surprise- Maybe Washington? Illinois? I was shocked to see how highly Utah ranked in this category. Who knew? Also, It's too bad that the tag "same-sex household" excludes single LGBT's- so this stat might be significantly understating this population's influence in each state. I guess statistically speaking, the extra 1% might not sway any state that isn't already blue, but still...

andrew, if I could, I'd give you tips for the comp...

2008-10-28T11:17:00.000-04:00

andrew, if I could, I'd give you tips for the compilation.

I want to find a plot of land on the high road to ...

2008-10-28T10:59:00.000-04:00

I want to find a plot of land on the high road to Taos, about 15 miles outside of Santa Fe for retirement.

Yeah, some of those towns on the high road are a bit shady. Yeah, my wife gets motion sickness on the High Road. Yeah, I get nose bleeds at high altitude.

But the view is worth the adjustments.

I went to the October Balloon Festival in ABQ with the wife during the 2004 election. I highly recommend the balloon fest - it is beautiful. We then went to Santa Fe and were in the crosshairs of both campaigns. Even saw John Cusack speak at the La Fonda Hotel for John Kerry. There was a Republican rally for their state ticket on the Santa Fe town square. It is a great place to be at election time.

The green chile burger at the Santa Fe Brewing Company will rock your world, too!

The R's have only themselves to blame for the disa...

2008-10-28T10:44:00.000-04:00

The R's have only themselves to blame for the disaster they are about to see next Tuesday. They didn't seriously contest the gov or the other Senate seat in 2006. Then party heads didn't step and stop Pearce from running. Wilson was Domenici's protege and in an excellent position to help the state with DoD and DoE committee assignments. Udall, on the other hand, dissed both Labs last year when they were facing serious layoffs, now even more likely with the federal budget situation. Wilson was the only House member that has fought for both Labs and Air Force bases. But instead the twit from the South, who should really move back to Texas, won the primary and is now getting his head handed to him in the election. With only 1 senator with any decent committee assignments, New Mexico is looking at hard times in the next few years.

New State Mottos courtesy 538.comMS: A Polarized S...

2008-10-28T10:32:00.000-04:00

New State Mottos courtesy 538.com

MS: A Polarized State of Extremes
ME: Fiercely Independent
HI: Exotic and Foreign
OK: When The Wind Comes Sweeping Down The Plains
NC: A Contrast of Cores
WY: Sparsely Populated and Spacious
MA: Highly Educated and Liberal
AL: Staunchly Socially Conservative
AR: Home of Wal-Mart
MN: Once a Democratic Given
IA: A Field of Dreams
NE: Where Football is Religion
RI: Deep Ocean Blue
UT: Sunset Sandstone Red
AK: Bastion of Hockey Mommery
CA: Coastally Urban and Maverickily Liberal
TX: Not a State to Mess With
TN: Heart of Country Music
SD: Badlands and Prairie
FL: Land of Beaches, Oranges, Old People and Theme Parks
OR: Cascading From Desert to Sea
LA: Cajun Bayou Tabasco Red
MD: Chesapeake Blue
MT: The Last, Best Place
CT: Home of Joe Lieberman
KS: What's the Matter With Kansas?
ID: Home of Napoleon Dynamite
NY: Home of The Daily Show's Word Headquarters
AZ: John McCain's Home
VT: Syrupy and Newhartish
KY: From Paducah to the Moonshine Hills
ND: Woodchippy and Snow-Blown
SC: Land of Colbert
NM: Beautiful and Poblanically Spicy

North of Santa Fe is very Hispanic, with the excep...

2008-10-28T09:08:00.000-04:00

North of Santa Fe is very Hispanic, with the exception of Los Alamos. There is a big difference here between Hispanos and those of Mexican descent. Did someone call the locals aborigines?

"Poblanically spicy?" Poblanos are really not ver...

2008-10-28T07:46:00.000-04:00

"Poblanically spicy?" Poblanos are really not very spicy, you know. . . . .

That aside, this former Arizonan living in Maine sure misses him some Hatch green chile. . . . .

From a leading New Mexico blog this morning:"A Tsu...

2008-10-28T07:11:00.000-04:00

From a leading New Mexico blog this morning:

"A Tsunami warning has been issued and the captain has given the order. It's every man for himself. With just one week before Election Day, experts across the board say a repudiation of historic proportions of the Bush presidency and the New Mexico Republican Party seems unavoidable. Public and private polling here reveals the tsunami wave that is already splashing onto the early voting. It will now be a major upset if any Republican is elected to the United States Congress from this state in 2008. That would mean one party control of the state's five member D.C. delegation for the first time since the state added its third US House seat in 1983."

http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com/

I been trying to compile a chronological list of l...

2008-10-28T06:38:00.000-04:00

I been trying to compile a chronological list of labels that the McCain Campaign created for Obama. Did I miss any?

Hoover-like. McCain accused Obama of being like Herbert Hoover a couple of times. Not Jay Edgar Hoover-like: that would have to be Sarah Barracuda herself

word verification: pecto. I like it!

with his internals Zogby is using the following pa...

2008-10-28T03:47:00.000-04:00

with his internals Zogby is using the following party breakup

R 36 D 38 I 26

on my spreadsheet model this breakup + his internal findings posted above the exact outcome is
O 49.14
M 44.6
U 6.26

applying Rasmussen party id to Zog's raw data the model gives me
O 50.27
M 43.32
U 6.41

Rasmussen has 51 46 yestarday

The curious thing I discovered is that Zog's internals are even better for Obama than Rasmussen's.
He has obviously doubts on the democratic turnout. His blabla about McCain surge due to focus on economy is pure bs and contradicts his internal assumptions.

Let's see if we can't explain how the Zogby poll w...

2008-10-28T03:37:00.000-04:00

Let's see if we can't explain how the Zogby poll works in plain english. It takes the results of 3 seperate days of polling and averages them for the "tracking" poll. That is if looking purely at Obama's number, monday was 51.5, tuesday was 50.0 and wednesday's was 49.0, then the average for the 3 days would be roughly 50.2. Now, on thursday we have a new poll result of 49.3, an improvement over wednesday, but the average would drop off monday's high so our actual result would be an average of 49.4 which shows a drop in the average due to what dropped off more than today's new results.

Yes, Virginia could very well be a tipping point s...

2008-10-28T02:57:00.000-04:00

Yes, Virginia could very well be a tipping point state. However, if we learned anything from 2000 and 2004, you can't put your eggs in one basket. Obama has done a great job of truly spreading the field, therefore giving himself many paths to victory.

Race, Ethnicity, and The Electoral College

@Loralee,Agree about Charles Barkly. What an idiot...

2008-10-28T02:53:00.000-04:00

@Loralee,
Agree about Charles Barkly. What an idiot. Add him along the likes of John King and Anderson Cooper on CNN. Thank god for David Gergen.

@Loralee,I just wanted to give Bill Richardson his...

2008-10-28T02:51:00.000-04:00

@Loralee,
I just wanted to give Bill Richardson his props for backing BO all the way.

"Democrats are such a bunch of whiny girls."Lovely...

2008-10-28T02:42:00.000-04:00

"Democrats are such a bunch of whiny girls."

Lovely.

As to the rest or your over-simplified post:

"National numbers are not relevant."

Sure they are, for a variety of reasons. The real power of a mandate, for one.

"FL, OH, NC, IN, MO don't matter."

Sure they do. They can either add to the mandate or can substitute for Virginia in your scenario, should something weird happen there.

Your post was an unattractive mix of arrogant and simplistic.

And even if we accept your scenario... if Obama wins Pennsylvania, any of seven or so states could put him over the top. Virginia is merely the easiest.