Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Daddy, Where Do Senators Come From?

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2009-10-09T08:11:57.711-04:00

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Let's try to clean up all the typos in the senator...

2009-01-25T16:57:00.000-05:00

Let's try to clean up all the typos in the senator's names, huh.

Nate -- I would love to see your talents at analys...

2009-01-18T11:11:00.000-05:00

Nate -- I would love to see your talents at analysis applied to two other charts:

1) A pie chart illustrating the size of the constituencies which members of the 111th represented in their immediate previous positions. How big a constituency must a mayor have to then move to the Senate without going through a state office or the House?

2) A line chart, expanding on your chart here, tracing members positions back over the last several years. How many were mayors, state legislators, etc. before winding up in the Senator column? Is there a "best" or "most-common" path to the Senate?

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2009-01-16T04:19:00.000-05:00

As noted above, Mel Martinez should be counted as ...

2009-01-11T22:24:00.000-05:00

As noted above, Mel Martinez should be counted as previously having been Orange County Chairman in Florida, a position now known as Orange County Mayor. This is an elected county executive position -- he held this post when nominated to lead HUD by Bush.

I find the dynastic argument persuasive.While Obam...

2009-01-11T22:16:00.000-05:00

I find the dynastic argument persuasive.

While Obama, Bill Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Ford, Nixon and Johnson were self-made men, it seems like a bunch of Senators are set-up with the gig by family.

When considering where Senators come from the dynastic angle should be part of the analysis.

Dorgan was also ND's Tax Commissioner like Conrad....

2009-01-11T20:33:00.000-05:00

Dorgan was also ND's Tax Commissioner like Conrad...

Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington State was a m...

2009-01-11T11:50:00.000-05:00

Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington State was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives but lost her seat in the 1994 election. She then spent some years with one of the big Seattle based dot com outfits prior to defeating Slade Gorton for her Senate seat in a very close election in 2000.

Well, thanks ;-)I love those little anecdotes and ...

2009-01-10T16:39:00.000-05:00

Well, thanks ;-)

I love those little anecdotes and I'll keep an eye on it.

While trying to find it out, I stumbled over a website claiming Barack Obama to be the 5th black president in the sense that he is "just" biracial, but we still call him African-American. The other presidents with partly black ancestry are Warren G. Harding, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson, and someone I forgot...

@ Alex S.:exactement, mon ami!

2009-01-10T14:41:00.000-05:00

@ Alex S.:

exactement, mon ami!

state senators ... since they represent smaller co...

2009-01-10T06:27:00.000-05:00

state senators ... since they represent smaller constituencies they're often more interesting people with more interesting views

In California there are 40 State Senators and 53 Congressional Representatives.

Texas has 31 State Senators and 32 Representatives in the U.S. Congress.

All of the other states (except for Nebraska, which has a 49-seat unicameral legislature) have more State Senators than members of Congress.

Alright, I knew you meant Louisiana when you said ...

2009-01-10T05:43:00.000-05:00

Alright, I knew you meant Louisiana when you said that it's a Deep South State, different from the others... but I seriously have no idea who it is. If I really had to take that 50:50 chance I'd go with Mary Landrieu because the Landrieu family seems to be deeply entrenched in New Orleans. Her father's nickname was "Moon" Landrieu... sounds a bit voodoo-rooted to me, but it's just a wild guess ^^.

DCM -- You're right. The deep, dark "secret" in "T...

2009-01-10T02:09:00.000-05:00

DCM -- You're right. The deep, dark "secret" in "The Human Stain" (the movie and the book on which it's based) was the hidden African ancestry of the character played by Anthony Hopkins. The book, I believe, is inspired by a real person, Anatole Broyard, who had roots in (wink, wink! nudge, nudge!) Louisiana. And you make a good point with well chosen examples (Thomas Jefferson, Strom Thurmond . . . .). And what is the phrase, now that both DNA and anthropology point to the common origins of all Homo sapiens? "We are all African."
I'll keep you posted if I hear anything about the Lizard People -- the law in Minnesota says that in the recount, the canvassing board needs to try to discern the clear intent of the voter (or something to that effect). I think the person who wrote in "Lizard People" clearly had Norm Coleman in mind!

YANKEEdidn't Anthony Hopkins star in a film a few ...

2009-01-10T00:54:00.000-05:00

YANKEE

didn't Anthony Hopkins star in a film a few back [the Human Stain] where his deep dark 'secret' was his crypto-AA heritage ?

your mystery senator could be from any state since the racial mixing went on everywhere

probably LA with the whole creole race mixing in the bayous

maybe VA [ala Thomas Jefferson's extended family]

the Carolinas [especial SoCa] luv their eccentrics & everyone has a closet full o' skeletons...

why didn't Strom Thurmond even have black bloodlines in his extended family ?

and Cheney is related to Obama as I recall...

also, how many TV movies & even series has that been in the plotline in recent years ???

same with semitic bloodlines - it is more common than most people are aware

likewise with closet gaysin politics

OK, ignore ol' Craig the dearly departed Senator...

but come on, you got your Ms Lindsay Graham for starters

& his good bud, Charlie Crist in FL - despite his recent nuptials with his beard/wife

everyone in FL knows ol' Charlie is different like that BUT with that great orange permatan & teeth & high-waist & as a GOPer - who cares ???

hypocrisy rules the day in politics & religion too

now if you know & have proof who the real Lizard People are - please provide a link !!!

besides Cheney...

Not so!Anybody, yes, even YOU can become the next ...

2009-01-09T23:52:00.000-05:00

Not so!

Anybody, yes, even YOU can become the next Senator from New York. Just fill out this application form and return it to Governor David Patterson's office and wait by your phone!

BTW, while I am hamming it up a bit, this is for real. The application form is available to anyone who wants to be considered for the position of US Senator representing New York.

@ Another Mike:Thanks for noticing Hatch. I think ...

2009-01-09T23:19:00.000-05:00

@ Another Mike:

Thanks for noticing Hatch. I think that may potentially make Orrin Hatch the most ordinary person to be a US senator at time of election. He'd never held political office. He wasn't obscenely wealthy. He had no family ties. He was just a lawyer who ran for the Senate and made it. Lots of people like him run for the Senate every cycle, but he is, pretty much, the only one who's made it -- and he's a Republican in Utah, which means he's playing with a straight flush in any case.

So: if you are a normal person -- DO NOT RUN FOR THE SENATE. Take the cursus honorum instead. Two years in the state house, four years in the state senate, four years in the House -- THEN, maybe, you can take the plunge. But Mr Smith never wins.

@ Alex S.You're getting warmer geographically with...

2009-01-09T22:22:00.000-05:00

@ Alex S.

You're getting warmer geographically with your guesses, but I wasn't thinking of Mel Martinez or other Latino Senators who may or may not have some African ancestry. Race definitely still matters in the state I was speaking about, but the racial and cultural history of that state is also distinct from its neighbors in the Deep South.

Also: I wish more state senators would run directl...

2009-01-09T22:07:00.000-05:00

Also: I wish more state senators would run directly for the senate. They're less insulated from the population as a whole than congressmen (they have to maintain a 'real job', mostly), they can be less jaded by Washington and hence maintain an outsider perspective, and since they represent smaller constituencies they're often more interesting people with more interesting views. At the same time, they have more legislative experience than 'normal' people or assemblymen.

And, of course, two of the very finest people in the Senate (Obama and Feingold) were state senators, as well as Patty Murray (who I quite like.)

Hmm.... who could it be? ^^"crypto-afro ancestry"....

2009-01-09T19:33:00.000-05:00

Hmm.... who could it be? ^^

"crypto-afro ancestry"... I don't know if you mean Arab-African ancestry or maybe a latino with some black ancestry. Even more puzzling, which state population has a lot of crypto-afro ancestry but not race as an important factor? Because, I'd guess that most people with African ancestry live in the Deep South, and that's the place where race DOES matter... that's why I tend to think that you are speaking of a latino. Maybe Mel Martinez?

@ Alex SYou made an interesting comment re: dynast...

2009-01-09T19:10:00.000-05:00

@ Alex S

You made an interesting comment re: dynastic succession in the US House of Lords . . . I mean Senate.
And your reference to Nate Silver's previous post "Why Are There No Black Senators?" raises another point that readers might find interesting. Not that it should matter, but technically speaking, under the old "One Drop Rule," I think it is very likely (and sources close to this Senator, with experience in that Senator's home state mores and history, have confirmed this directly to me) that there is a Senator that has some African ancestry but doesn't self-identify as African American. Furthermore, many people in that Senator's state are aware of this -- and many of them probably have similar "crypto-afro" ancestry -- but obviously don't see it as a big deal, and perhaps that's the way it should be. That raises the question of why I shouldn't just disclose that Senator's name. Well, I'm sure many of Nate Silver's readers are fans of "Jeopardy" and NPR's "Wait, Wait Don't Tell Me!" Let's see if anyone can figure this out.

@Unrepentant WhitlamiteYeah, I put together such a...

2009-01-09T18:42:00.000-05:00

@Unrepentant Whitlamite

Yeah, I put together such a chart a few daze ago, too. Mine allowed for multiple entries (i.e., when someone had served as gubnor and US Rep), so it's not totally wasted effort; but Nate's list and analysis are far superior. Of course.

Hey, what's that bell? It's the siren song, calling for me to vote for 538.com again! If we're running up the score (currantly 61.2%), that's okay with me.

wv: ammenchw: Nate's ammenchwho gets things right.

@fred"The political family angle is an interesting...

2009-01-09T18:34:00.000-05:00

@fred
"The political family angle is an interesting one. It used to be just the Kennedy's..."

Tell that to the Adamses, Roosevelts, Tafts...

"...now it is everyone..."

Sure, if 12-16% of the sample population constitutes "everyone."

wv: flewelty: flewelty folks in this here Senate.

Also, why is Ted Kennedy listed at "brother of JFK...

2009-01-09T17:06:00.000-05:00

Also, why is Ted Kennedy listed at "brother of JFK" but Orin Hatch gets to be listed as "lawyer" and the Udalls get to be listed with real professions? At least list both.