Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Obama Becoming 'Generic Democrat'?

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2009-10-08T08:19:44.231-04:00

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2009-02-12T23:04:00.000-05:00

1. Flip flop charge does seem less effective give...

2008-07-08T18:21:00.000-04:00

1. Flip flop charge does seem less effective given (a) generic ballots, (b) McCain's own movements, (c) the fact that 4 years ago we had a choice between strong and steady vs. flip flopper and most Americans can be too easily reminded of which they would have preferred ex post.

2. Look at the main weaknesses/potential narratives by rival camps for each person

Obama
-inexperienced
-an ordinairy politician and too calculating

McCain
-age
-warmonger
-economic cluelessness
-continuation of Bush

McCain can probably address age and warmonger effectively. I am not sure on the economic issues (unfair or not, Republican economic solutions consistently do poorly in polls during poor economic times). The Bush label seems more true today than last month (given oil drilling and tax policies, this oddly has been reinforced - I am in favor of drilling and I see this).

The charge of ordinary politician against Obama is non-fatal given the generic ballots. You could believe this to be true, but you still like the policies and personality more.

Also something is odd where McCain's image as a Maverick has really diminished since 2000 (which would have helped in using the ordinary politician label against Obama) and he really does seem "just like Bush to more voters" - I'm certain McCain's own internal polls and focus groups have picked up on this, but am guessing his campaign has decided to continue to pull to the right in hopes of securing the base and then hitting Obama on some other strategy yet to be developed.)

The inexperience charge is more interesting and could be potentially fatal to me. The more the economy is the issue as opposed to war/terrorism, the less salient it is.

It is also possible that Obama wows people in talks and debates and somehow deflects this. If he is able to do so, it would be a blowout (just as Reagan blew away Carter after the debates in 1980)

I experience remains an issue, it is a close race where McCain has a chance of winning, where the idiosyncracies of who appeals to the working class, what Ohio wants, who is the VP, hidden racism, hidden ageism, etc. all matter (and things like one candidate taking the popular vote and losing are all possible).

Clearly more upside potential for Obama, but a path for McCain getting to 271 is also possible.

Krugman wasn't pro Hillary. He was pro Edwards...

2008-07-01T10:54:00.000-04:00

Krugman wasn't pro Hillary. He was pro Edwards...

Mark in VAMy thanks. There were some usable refere...

2008-07-01T04:54:00.000-04:00

Mark in VA

My thanks. There were some usable references with that link.

Storing power as compressed air in caverns IS feasable.

However it is also clear that nobody has gone much beyond treating this as a local solution.

There has been no atempt to quantify the avialable suitable caverns in the way that the potential of suitable wind turbine sites, or oil reserves have been estimated.

There is no maths for creating caverns, just speculations.

In short I find this a promising technology but not ready to be sold to the American public as a clear and reliable solution.

You can't yet use it as proof that America need not invest in traditional fuels.

Like the Australian election last year. The incumb...

2008-06-30T22:35:00.000-04:00

Like the Australian election last year. The incumbent conservatives were never able to develop a coherent narrative on the Labor opposition leader Kevin Rudd. They oscillated between presenting himself as a secret radical, a flip-flopper or as inexperienced. None of these caught on with the electorate.

"As I said there are no references in that article...

2008-06-30T20:07:00.000-04:00

"As I said there are no references in that article. I need the technical details from somewhere respected by the scientific comunity. I do not doubt that power can be stored as mechanical energy. I just question the scale & the economics. Are they still economical when you run out of natural caverns & have to start constructing them?"

Scientific American has been published continuously since the mid 1800s. It's a forum for theories and discoveries in across all scientific disciplines, and virtually all of its content is contributed directly by researchers. I'll only assume you hadn't heard of it before.

Here's a link outlining more of the research background behind the article the researchers published in SciAm for more of the layman's consumption:

http://www.solarplan.org/Research/Solar%20Grand%20Plan.htm

Gop Atacks are based on oversimplification mischar...

2008-06-30T19:18:00.000-04:00

Gop Atacks are based on oversimplification mischaracterization. My point was to show that Obama is vulnerable.

For years, I've been listening to Democrats whine that the Republicans are guilty of "oversimplification." I increasingly regard this as an excuse for the Democratic Party's smugness, laziness, cowardice, and lack of new ideas.

Democrats do a horrible job of communicating. They make it hard for the public to understand what they want, and when someone asks a question or voices a doubt they tend to become defensive and call the questioner an idiot. They compound the error by calling all Republicans idiots, and by extension the public that voted for Republicans.

The tragedy is that it's really not very hard at all to boil it down to a simple set of messages, but the more liberal someone gets it seems the harder they are to understand. Then, when the Republicans talk in terms that a busy electorate can readily understand, brain-dead Democrats -- the real idiots, if you ask me -- turn around and call the Republicans stupid.

Yeah, they're stupid. They're one vote on the Supreme Court away from repealing just about everything we support. They tricked the country into a war, and they gave away $2 trillion to Bush's best 1,000 friends. They've got the Democrats so wrapped around a tree that we can't even tell anyone what we support without demanding that they sit there for a half an hour and listen to us yammer at them.

And, the kicker is that with the country truly going to hell as we sit here, the Republican candidate is going to get at least 45% of the vote and the Democrats will probably pick up only 5 or 6 Senate seats and maybe 15 in the House.

Someone's going to have to tell me who the idiots are, because I'm not at all certain that it's Bush or Cheney.

Yes, we really need an inspirational and motivatin...

2008-06-30T19:02:00.000-04:00

Yes, we really need an inspirational and motivating leader. Obama is it. McCain, this year is not for you. Obama has been the gracious, kind and honorable leader that we haven't seen in years. He is respectable and his decisions have been made with the larger picture in mind. He reaches for the grassroots level and speaks for the people. I'm a strong Obama supporter. Vote for Obama! Go to WHYOBAMA08.org!

Alpha.dkAs I said there are no references in that ...

2008-06-30T18:21:00.000-04:00

Alpha.dk

As I said there are no references in that article. I need the technical details from somewhere respected by the scientific comunity. I do not doubt that power can be stored as mechanical energy. I just question the scale & the economics. Are they still economical when you run out of natural caverns & have to start constructing them?

You are corect in saying that the sun rises every day. I have it on good faith even if somedays you wouldn't know it for the cloud cover. Err... you do know that thick clouds drop output from solar cells to something quite pathetic?

This is only a really great strategy if he can als...

2008-06-30T18:08:00.000-04:00

This is only a really great strategy if he can also get McCain to become Generic Republican. Generic Democrat versus Reformer McCain is one of the few ways McCain has a shot at winning.

(Reformer Obama versus Reformer McCain, as well as Generic Democrat versus Generic Republican, both go to Obama; Generic Democrat versus Reformer McCain and Scary Obama versus Generic Republican are about even races; Scary Obama versus Reformer McCain is the only one where Obama would be at an outright disadvantage. I don't think McCain has an analogue for Scary Obama; maybe Old And Senile McCain?)

- illissius, who is not logging in because Blogger with multiple Google accounts is a mighty pain in the ass

It will be a double whammy on Obama -- he will be ...

2008-06-30T17:41:00.000-04:00

It will be a double whammy on Obama -- he will be perceived as potentially a far left wacko and he is trying to deceive us about it.

Clinton at least had a record and a position as head of the Democratic Leadership Council from which to assert his centrist credentials. Obama has one speech, 100 present votes and Trinity United Church. And he only has Bob Barr (calling Sacha Baron Cohen!) whereas Clinton had Perot.

Because he has come from no where and is so slickly packaged, he is at risk of being defined by others.

His constant shifting of positions -- including the predictable backing off from his commitment to pull the troops out no matter what -- will destroy his credibility.

He will be left with the college kids, the yellow dog liberal Democrats and and African Amercians, if he is not careful.

That is not much of a base from which to win an election.

Now get off my lawn, you kids!

"Nevertheless, what does all of this really tell u...

2008-06-30T17:06:00.000-04:00

"Nevertheless, what does all of this really tell us about Obama? It tells us, I think, that Obama has a pretty keen sensibility for risk management, and tends to come down on the risk-averse side."

then he is exactly the same as kerry and gore, and history has already proven that type of dog won't hunt. glenn greenwald is 100% correct in saying that this perennial notion that dems have to throw the base under the bus and jump "to the center" to win is wrong. it costs us elections.

there is nothing centrist about the FISA bill, it is far right--it is fascist right (literally, in the true meaning of the word fascist). most americans that know about it, oppose it; and most of those that don't know about it, would oppose it if they did.

i thought one of the things we liked about obama was that he wasn't risk averse--that he'd take on the repugs by taking them on, not by becoming one of them. as per usual.

the republican brand is in the same lousy condition as american automotive brands, and for equally just cause--obama started the general election with everyone convinced he was a toyota prius, so he spent the last 2 months trying to prove that he's really a chevy cavalier. smmmaaaarrrrtttt...

maybe it is time for th0se of us in democratic base to quite making excuses for our party leaders? maybe it is time we quit rationalizing be treated like crap? maybe it's time we get over our battered-wife-syndrome, and vote for someone else? if a huge chunk of us vote for nader in protest, the dems will learn a valuable lesson...mccain would win, but tell me, which really is the pyhrric victory--washington eternally run by republidems like pelosi (and seemingly obama), or a one term mccain presidency (which surely will only further destroy the republican brand)? which really is the lesser of two evils in the long term?

If I were Obama, I would be risk averse as well, s...

2008-06-30T15:56:00.000-04:00

If I were Obama, I would be risk averse as well, since being Obama would mean I was a large favorite. That means not just shifting to the center, but avoiding debating the issues with the less favored, but more substantive candidate.

Still, there's a difference between seeming to be something and actually being something. It seems obvious, but it's a point often lost in talk of candidate politics, where even those who are not politically connected or interested talk about the politicians in the very language the political campaigns want them to use-- that is, advertising image-speak.

While Obama 'seems' to be moving the center (in order not to lose moderate Democrats), he may actually be doing so, since the tenets of radical liberalism are not the views of mainstream America. Still, I think the real Obama is more of a radical liberal than a Clintonian Democrat.

Whatever. I find Sean Hannity obnoxious. If he were honest, he would commend Obama for rejecting public financing, because campaign finance reform is a terrible idea and involved free speech violations. Then he could actually criticize Obama and his pundits for making the claim that by rejecting campaign finance reform for this election, he is somehow furthering and protecting it. Obama shouldn't be criticized for "flip-flopping" when the latest position he takes is the right one, for God's sake. However, if he gives a bad reason for it, certainly that should be harped upon.

The latest thing I see out of Obama (and surely it was there all along) is that anything he does that is outside of his professed policy stances and beliefs is just something necessary to get into power to do really good things. Shifting positions radically? Necessary to get into office? Going to a radical, anti-American church? Just trying to build street credit. And so on. Somehow I think these means are who Obama is, and not some sort of calculus of necessity in order to do good from a position of power. That is the basis for the GOP's new talking point that "Obama is just another politician."

@Counsellorben - you're right, it is hard to know ...

2008-06-30T15:12:00.000-04:00

@Counsellorben - you're right, it is hard to know what to call it. But I guess we can all agree that whatever it is, it's the consequence of the dust settling. I just think that when we call it a "bounce" it distracts from the precise nature of the movement. People didn't flock to Obama - they just looked harder at McCain and found they didn't like it.

@Kugel, I'd agree with you if there actually were ...

2008-06-30T15:09:00.000-04:00

@Kugel, I'd agree with you if there actually were any flip-flopping, but the Anon further up thread referred to by Jimmy the Saint at :22 is completely right.

Obama describes himself as a "former liberal" and all the evidence from his recent political writings and his voting is perfectly in line with what he says now. He gave a more left-wing impression in the primaries, but was careful in how he did it. He's returning to form now, and the only surprises to me so far have been his stance on FISA, and his mangling of what a "united Jerusalem" might mean. That's two - in a whole campaign.

"Nate: "All of which goes to show: if the worst th...

2008-06-30T14:32:00.000-04:00

"Nate: "All of which goes to show: if the worst thing they can say about you is that you're the new Bill Clinton, then you're probably in pretty good shape for November."

This is wrong. This is right:

Anonymous said: Flip-flopping will matter only so much as it reaffims doubts about Obama's readiness to assume one of the most important offices in the world.

What's disastrous for Obama is to appear WEAK! That's what "Flip-flopper" means! Someone who's weak and can't stand up for their beliefs: i.e. a 98-lbs. weakling who always tries to "negotiate" when the bullies of the world kick sand in his face. That attack is MUCH worse than being "too liberal."

That's the media driven narrative that destroyed EVERY Democratic presidential contender from Dukakis to Kerry and which Clinton barely succeeded in avoiding because the media narrative against HIM was so focused on his affairs with other women that they tried to paint him as "too oversexed" which clashes with "too weak."

You can finally see the Republicans finding their media narrative against Obama "he's not a liberal! He's a flip-flopper just like Kerry! That's why you can't trust him because you don't know what he stands for!"

Attacking Obama for being "too liberal" wasn't working anymore than similar attacks on Democratic Congressional candidates worked in 2006. "Scary liberal" just doesn't cut it with voters who want change.

Obama's rush to repudiate Gen. Clark when Clark attacks McCain's lack of epxerience is another major blunder.

Bush won in 2004 by telling voters "you might not agree with me but you know where I stand." Americans LOVE strength of character and refusal to change one's belief under pressure.

"Strong and wrong!" is better than "weak and right!" in the minds of most voters.

(Bush carried this to extremes, and it took six years for voter's infatuation with him to wear off -- Republicans STILL love him for it!)

How hard would it be and how "risky" If he would stand strong and tell people:

"I've got a plan and I believe in it and I'm not changing it just because some media blowhards and the Right-wing start calling me a "liberal." I'm charting a new course for America and you have to take your lumps. I'll take good ideas from wherever they come -- liberals or conservatives. We're trying to get beyond the divisions that separate us and recognize that we're all Americans and we have a lot of work to do to restore this country to the greatness we all know and love."

The CW and MSM have been WRONG for a year and a ha...

2008-06-30T14:22:00.000-04:00

The CW and MSM have been WRONG for a year and a half. They are wrong about this now. Most voters are moderate. They are in the center, not on the left or the right. This is where Obama needs to be and it actually is where he's always been if you read "The Audacity of Hope".

Ed Kilgore? Dan Gerstein, is that you? As Jim Hightower said, "The only thing in the middle of the road is dead armadillos and yellow lines."

The Republicans (Fox News) will try out every line...

2008-06-30T13:56:00.000-04:00

The Republicans (Fox News) will try out every line of attack they can possibly think of. It's telling that they are completely contradictory to each other as they are so full of ... it.

Blame:Reread the article. As it says, the pressur...

2008-06-30T13:35:00.000-04:00

Blame:
Reread the article. As it says, the pressurized gas method is already in use in several places, including for this very method for various plants in Germany. Furthermore, I fail to see why an entire week's worth of power stored would be necessary; last I checked, the sun rose daily. They ran their figures with the federal 'worst case' scenario for sunlight, and as they say there would be several dozen thousand square miles of cells would need to be erected; hardly a good chance of *all* of those being cloudy at the same time.

John H:Given the timing of the relative change in ...

2008-06-30T13:34:00.000-04:00

John H:

Given the timing of the relative change in support, I still would classify this as an "Obama bounce" rather than a "McCain collapse."

While the difference is certainly due to the lower poll numbers for McCain, I would argue that this is because McCain's numbers in April and May were inflated. McCain was receiving support from people disaffected by the long, brutal Democratic primary season. Once the primary season closed, McCain lost those weak "supporters" as they flipped to undecided. It is likely that a good portion of these lost supporters are Hillary Clinton supporters starting the process of coming home to the Democratic nominee.

Even though it is not what most people traditionally would consider a bounce (since Obama's support has not trended upward significantly), I think that is the only fair way to characterize the recent polling trends.

Walt:I was not advocating ignoring RCP. I was exp...

2008-06-30T13:24:00.000-04:00

Walt:

I was not advocating ignoring RCP. I was expressing concern over whether they were starting to let their political leanings affect their presentation of information.

I criticize their links and blogs, but I find their polling information very informative (though that, too, is nothing when compared with this site).