Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Late Nite Polls, 8/17

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T05:38:21.302-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

2009-09-22T02:01:01.818-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、打工,兼差,或者八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、酒店兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、有兼職、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:02:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

2009-03-12T01:02:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-16T23:08:00.000-05:00

Obama should learn to speak a laymans language. so...

2008-08-19T11:59:00.000-04:00

Obama should learn to speak a laymans language. someone has just explained his 'above my paygrade' comment at Saddleback. "It showed at the same time that he highly respects the opinions of both scientists and theologians, and that it isn't his job to play God". The question of when a foetus is entitled to 'human right' is an unsettled question among theologians but the press are not telling us that. What I initially thought was a dodging of the question was indeed a very thoughful answer.

Finally, please someone should teach Obama how to engage in political fisticuffs!

It is painfully clear that Obama's campaign is fai...

2008-08-18T18:55:00.000-04:00

It is painfully clear that Obama's campaign is failing. This is John Kerry Redux. He is standing there and doing nothing while McCain and his surrogates kick the living shit out of him. What is it about the Democratic Party and its candidates that makes them afraid to fight?

To make every vote in every state politically rele...

2008-08-18T16:31:00.000-04:00

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan

Two questions. Why do so many 'commenters' not hav...

2008-08-18T16:10:00.000-04:00

Two questions. Why do so many 'commenters' not have a blog page? Makes you suspicious.

We are all partisan, but some try to analize trend while others just engage in vitriol? I thought 538 was primarily for analysis not 'talking points' and worse.

Mike-Odd that you and Darrien would try to use tha...

2008-08-18T16:02:00.000-04:00

Mike-
Odd that you and Darrien would try to use that poll as evidence of the Fox's F&Bness. That poll tells me that GOPers won't watch a news source unless said source is catering to their world-view. They're the ones whose viewership numbers change the most from source to source. Inds stay relatively constant, and Dems fall off on fox in proportion to the republican gain.

Furthermore, you're not being ignored because you have conservative things to say, but rather because you have so little of consequence to say at all.

Is it significant that the most common simulated e...

2008-08-18T15:53:00.000-04:00

Is it significant that the most common simulated electoral result is a McCain win?

What is the scenario that comes out on top most often?

Ras-GA-Sen: Chambliss 50, Martin 44. 48-43 withou...

2008-08-18T15:38:00.000-04:00

Ras-GA-Sen: Chambliss 50, Martin 44. 48-43 without leaners, cf. 51-40 last month. Take it with a grain of salt, since this is the only poll thus far showing Martin within single digits of Chambliss, and Martin won his primary only a couple of weeks ago.

DarienCrow said... I found this poll to be quite t...

2008-08-18T15:37:00.000-04:00

DarienCrow said...
I found this poll to be quite telling

Cable News Viewers

Fox News: 39% Republican
33% Democrat
22% Independant

CNN: 18% Republican
51% Democrat
23% Independant

MSNBC: 18% Republican
45% Democrat
26% Independant

Source: Pew Research Center

Fair and Balanced!

Mike adds:
Fair and Balanced...indeed.
The breakdown in FOX News viewership might also explain their lead in the ratings!!!

See my preceding post in this thread.

The Obama Fan Base seems to conviently ignore both whole threads and comments within them that place holes in the bucket that they use to carry about their water.

Another "McGain" poll.I notice very few of the har...

2008-08-18T15:06:00.000-04:00

Another "McGain" poll.

I notice very few of the hardcore Obama fans have posted in the "mid August 538 update" thread.

I sum that up to hard evidence is best ignored by the Senator from IL fan base.

It will be most interesting to see the Ras Rep polls from GA and IL, which are due out at 5PM eastern time.

Also of note is the daily tracking by issues at Ras Rep daily tracking update.

Those aforementioned numbers are the real reason behind all of the "McGains" that we are seeing in the polls.

Finally in re: to Ras Rep polls...538 still has this pollster ranked number 3 in the pollster ratings tab.

Till Later...Mike.

Upon reflection, Clinton's persistence was nothing...

2008-08-18T15:04:00.000-04:00

Upon reflection, Clinton's persistence was nothing if not silly. It's also been longer.

I've been reading occaisionally lately when I need...

2008-08-18T14:41:00.000-04:00

I've been reading occaisionally lately when I need a laugh.

The silly season went on a lot later (Clinton persisted long after hope was gone so I'm not sure if it's also been longer) this year because the party out of power went the limit in waiting to formally nominate.

There's little reason right now to think Obama won't be an easy winner come November.

Pete Kent: re Bob BarrI have seldom been as disapp...

2008-08-18T14:38:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent: re Bob Barr

I have seldom been as disappointed in an organization with which I disagree but which I admire as I was in the Libertarian Party for giving its nomination to that highly partisan social-conservative and right wing idealogue, Bob Barr. While I'll still read the Cato Institutes papers and listen to its articulate voices, I just can't admire the Party for doing this. Clearly, it was a pragmatic decision based on what they perceived as Barr's ability to keep them on the ballots in as many states as possible next time around.

The Libertarian candidate got, I believe. 0.32% of the vote in 2004 and, agreeing with you, I don't think that Barr will do much better this year. He might cost McCain a bit in the size of his majority in a few states, but I doubt very, very much that he'll cost him a state.

In 2000, Ralph Nader taught the electorate an important lesson; votes for third party candidates can backfire. No one doubts that the Ralph's voters in Florida and New Hampshire had no intention of handing the election to Bush (and almost giving him victories in NM and OR as well), but there is no doubt that they did.

Sedi: re OhioYou were right to call me out and I'm...

2008-08-18T14:18:00.000-04:00

Sedi: re Ohio

You were right to call me out and I'm glad you found my second post more reasonable.

I'm going to stick to my guns that Obama is just not showing enough strength in Ohio to make me feel that he can pull it off. It's hard to win Cuyahoga county by much more than a quarter of a million votes, which is what Kerry did. I also think that we're making too much of the Evangelicals' "un-enthusiasm" for McCain and believe that they will be sufficiently motivated by November. I am also skeptical, as i remarked to another poster, about relying on unenumerated structural changes to put us over the top.

Mathew H:Re Corruption in Ohio, registration advan...

2008-08-18T14:12:00.000-04:00

Mathew H:

Re Corruption in Ohio, registration advantages and "missing voters.

The state probably is more Democratic than it was four years ago and certainly should be ours this time, but it's not yet clear that this electorate is going to be friendly to Obama.

As to the structural issues that might or might not favor us on election day in the state, to quote a very old song, "It seems to me I've heard that song before...it's an old familiar score..." (ok maybe I don't have thw words exactly right). We democrats are perennially overly optimistic when it comes to who is going to turn out for us in General Elections in November. You might be right and I'll be out here on 11/4 to eat crow if you are, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Pete, good call! I am pretty worried, actually. ...

2008-08-18T14:07:00.000-04:00

Pete, good call! I am pretty worried, actually. Hopefully JohnnyMac is within a couple of points in Illinois to confirm all that momentum that I thought he had. Maybe he needs some Mitt-mentum?

filistro, a sitting VP certainly can be named to the Supreme Court. And of course I know where you're going with this; Dick Cheney would be a fantastic Supreme Court justice. He would slap down those libs for decades to come.

Adam in NY:RE Ohio. Yes, it's hard to win Cuyahog...

2008-08-18T14:04:00.000-04:00

Adam in NY:

RE Ohio. Yes, it's hard to win Cuyahoga by much more than a quarter of a million votes, which is what Kerry did. So, the question is can Obama register enough new voters who will (a) vote for Obama and (b) show up on Election Day to overcome a Republican Advantage in the center of the inverted C as you put it (though that C definitely is incomplete when stymied by Hamilton County!). I don't have him winning the state, but I have him taking a lot of money out of Johnny Mac's pocket to defend it.

PSmith:I never say that Obama is a Muslim. He is ...

2008-08-18T14:03:00.000-04:00

PSmith:

I never say that Obama is a Muslim. He is a practicing Christian (although he never goes to church anymore). What I do point out is that he comes from a Muslin=m family and is of Muslim extraction abnd heritage. What is wrong with that?

As I noted over the weekend, we are all the product of our life experiences and they should be expolored and discussed in a civil, almost clinical way.

****

I am deeply sadened by the Gallup tracker not showing an uptick for Mccain today. I had hoped that the combination of Georgia and the HRC mess would have help vault him over Barack Obama. He did move a bit closer in Ras, so I guess I will take solace in that and chalk today's reslut off to "statistical noise"!

Hopefully the afternoon state polls will give me something to crow about.

Hey Neo... could a sitting VP be nominated to SCOT...

2008-08-18T13:59:00.000-04:00

Hey Neo... could a sitting VP be nominated to SCOTUS?

(I'm sure you know where I'm going with this... ;-)

filistro, I don't know how you knew what I was wea...

2008-08-18T13:50:00.000-04:00

filistro, I don't know how you knew what I was wearing today. That's eerie!

Dammit! Looks like the MSM is picking up the cheating/plagiarizing ball and running with it. More of what we can expect from the liberal media, I guess. Andrea Mitchell first reported it; just more of the same from her, being in the tank for Democrats all these years. So annoying.

Andy, it's the newly elected House and Senate that select the President and VP, respectively. That's one of the reasons why Congress is sworn in about two weeks earlier.

I just wish McCain hadn't made that $5 million comment. That is going to hurt us. Man, this is nailbiter time.

The Cintons likes politicans from the third world....

2008-08-18T13:45:00.000-04:00

The Cintons likes politicans from the third world.