Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/9

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2009-09-25T07:36:11.098-04:00

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2009-03-23T05:18:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-18T04:22:00.000-05:00

Update, perhaps?

2008-10-13T12:47:00.000-04:00

Update, perhaps?

No, you can't normalize the Minnesota Senate race ...

2008-10-10T22:13:00.000-04:00

No, you can't normalize the Minnesota Senate race into a two-factor analysis. But because Minnesota has shown such support for independent candidates lately, you can probably assume that most of the Barkley voters will stick with him. This is a heavily anti-incumbent year so they're not going to break back for Coleman.

Nate, you need to update the GA Senate race projection. If the latest Rasmussen number is an outlier--and it looks like it may be--then there's an upset loss for Chambliss brewing.

I understand why Mr. Silver is only tracking Democ...

2008-10-10T13:20:00.000-04:00

I understand why Mr. Silver is only tracking Democrats v. Republicans in the U.S. Senate races. However, there are three (3) candidates running in Minnesota (remember Ross Perot, Jesse Ventura?) and when the Independent party candidate is showing 14-18% of the polled vote, I don't believe you can normalize out (i.e., ignore) the "third man." That said, your report and analysis on the Senate race in MN is badly skewed, at best! I thought better of you Mr. Silver!

I'm not surprised about Susan Collin's substantial...

2008-10-10T01:28:00.000-04:00

I'm not surprised about Susan Collin's substantial lead against Congressman Tom Allen in Maine, however well liked he was. She's one of the least "Republican" Republicans in the Senate & she's one of the nicest "famous" people I've ever encountered. I just don't have it in me to ever vote Republican, but if I did, during my ten years in Maine, I'd've voted for Susan. Back in August, I was at Logan Airport about to take a flight to Baltimore to see the Red Sox at Camden Yard, and she was at the same gate area, off to a thing in Martha's Vineyard. She had a dude who looked mildly bodyguardish with her, but I went right up to her and started chatting. She was engaging, pleasant and REAL (for lack of a better word). I thanked her for her work on behalf of ANWR; she thanked me for being a Maine educator (after I explained that I once was). Afterwards, my family asked, "Who was that?" And when I told them it was my fmr US Senator, they were SHOCKED that she was just sittin' there waiting for a charter plane. Our Mass US Senators have their own private jets and whatnot. They'd never converse with the lay people at Logan. Maine is fiercely independent; hence the moderate Republican ALL WOMEN Senators, the split delegates, the fmr Independent governor and the need to have campaigners there every election cycle. That's why it's the best state in the Union.
-Mrs. Nate Silver (http://bridge-inthepines.blogspot.com/2008/10/new-phantom-husband-nate-silver-of.html)

US Senate Race by margins1)VA Warner(D) 65-352)NM ...

2008-10-09T17:39:00.000-04:00

US Senate Race by margins
1)VA Warner(D) 65-35
2)NM Udall(D)60-40
3)CO Udall(D) 54-46
4)NH Shaheen(D) 54-46
5)NC Hagan(D)52-48
6)OR Merkley(D)52-48
7)AK Begich(D)51-49
8)MN Franken(D)51-49

The very recent developments & polls will give the...

2008-10-09T16:34:00.000-04:00

The very recent developments & polls will give the victory to Al Franken I think. Apart from the already secure seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire, I would add Oregon, North Carolina and Minnesota to the Democratic column. It´s unbelievable that Stevens is still in a toss-up situation, but ok, ok, he isn´t convicted yet. Musgrove vs. Wicker looks like the same kind of race that gave the Democrats their victories in this year´s special elections. On election day, democratic enthusiasm, combined with Republicans apathy, will turn that seat blue. Georgia and Kentucky are looking promising - which is not really fair to those Republican senators who voted against their constituencies, but did the right thing, in my opinion. I actually see them both losing. Chambliss will lose to the newly registered Democrats, and McConnell was one of the prominent figures of the bailout vote.
Collins in Maine is having a few problems, but it still looks like she´ll survive. And my surprise-in-the-making: Lindsey Graham. I think his seat is less safe than most people, including himself, think. He has a rather unconventional opponent; so imagine it to be like Allen vs. Webb of 2008.

How do you account for what we see in Minnesota? ...

2008-10-09T15:04:00.000-04:00

How do you account for what we see in Minnesota? Two polls conducted on the same day, one showing Coleman ahead 43-33 (+10), and the other showing him trailing 43-34 (-9).

black guy in McCain rally asking McCain to attack ...

2008-10-09T13:48:00.000-04:00

black guy in McCain rally asking McCain to attack Obama

explaination on what you mean about Southern Bapti...

2008-10-09T13:42:00.000-04:00

explaination on what you mean about Southern Baptist and which direction they break differantly. Personally I have been wondering if the gas shortages in the south have caused their polling to diverge from the rest of the nation the last 2 weeks or so.

" Firstly, we are replacing the partisan ID variab...

2008-10-09T13:37:00.000-04:00

" Firstly, we are replacing the partisan ID variable with a variable indicating Obama's current standing in our presidential projections. Evidently, there are some coattails/synergies with Obama's ground game in states like North Carolina. "

Wow this is almost exactly what I suggested in an earlier thread. You're the best Nate!

527 actionChange to Win hits McCain on healthcareT...

2008-10-09T13:32:00.000-04:00

527 action

Change to Win hits McCain on healthcare

The labor federation Change to Win will drop about a million pieces of mail ripping McCain's healthcare stance to members in swing states, an official there says.

The mail, which attacks McCain's suggestion that healthcare deregulation should follow the model of finance, is pretty direct: "George Bush and John McCain: Leaving working Americans SICK and BROKE," it says.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Change_to_Win_hits_McCain_on_healthcare.html?showall

I think the issue is not just whether Obama wins b...

2008-10-09T12:48:00.000-04:00

I think the issue is not just whether Obama wins but by how much. If we can win a big electoral landslide and put a couple "red" states into the Democrat column, it will really help out the party in two ways. First, Obama will have a huge mandate and be able to push things through the Senate whether or not we have 60 dems. Second, in terms of future elections, it will expand the "swing state" list and help Obama '12 and all dems to come.

I too am very concerned about Voter Protection is...

2008-10-09T12:45:00.000-04:00

I too am very concerned about Voter Protection issues (URL previously cited in Comments)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/us/politics/09voting.html

Am worried all these mass purges in swing states could affect election results, contradicting poll projections of the win margin.

I think it is hilarious that they are trying to bl...

2008-10-09T12:34:00.000-04:00

I think it is hilarious that they are trying to blame the husband. Like that is going to help.

There were already stories of him sitting in on governmental meeting, which is highly inappropriate, now this? It doesn't say anything good about Sarah.

What will he try to pull if Palin is VP? Try to set the FBI against Caribou Barbie's "enemies" in Alaska?

Kentucky and Georgia are bellwether US Senate Race...

2008-10-09T12:25:00.000-04:00

Kentucky and Georgia are bellwether US Senate Races- If Democrats win either of those races- they will be get more than 60 US Senate Seats.

Polls in KY and GA close at 7pm ET.

Anyone else having problems getting their heads ar...

2008-10-09T12:21:00.000-04:00

Anyone else having problems getting their heads around the fact that his numbers indicate that the Democrats have a higher likelihood of getting to 65 Senators (including the two I's) than the Republicans have of getting back to a tie by adding one senator? (and the scary thing is that this is mostly done without one of the races that a year ago was one that was considered most likely: Maine!)

October Surprise = TROOPERGATEsounds like if Todd ...

2008-10-09T12:18:00.000-04:00

October Surprise = TROOPERGATE

sounds like if Todd Palin meeting with Palin aides to get a trooper fired is the EXCUSE to preempt the report and take the blame off of Sarah Palin.

This thing is going to be pretty damn bad news for Sarah.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/09/politics...

2008-10-09T12:10:00.000-04:00

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/09/politics/main4511568.shtml

Todd trying to take the fall in troopergate

If you haven't seen this yet -- it's pretty vile, ...

2008-10-09T12:08:00.000-04:00

If you haven't seen this yet -- it's pretty vile, so go in with a strong stomach.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E

(McCain-Palin supporters after a rally.)

Does anyone know when the Supreme Court is suppose...

2008-10-09T11:59:00.000-04:00

Does anyone know when the Supreme Court is supposed to announce their ruling on Troopergate?