Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Mommy Quotient

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2009-01-19T10:18:00.000-05:00

Not this woman with a child. Count me out.

2008-09-09T15:57:00.000-04:00

Not this woman with a child. Count me out.

A request: Please use more contrasting tones when ...

2008-09-09T15:48:00.000-04:00

A request: Please use more contrasting tones when you highlight infoformation as you did in today's post. I am colorblind and the highlighting is nearly impossible for me to see. Thanks!

How do you think Sarah Palin as president will do ...

2008-09-09T15:47:00.000-04:00

How do you think Sarah Palin as president will do with this?

On Sunday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev in effect ran up the Jolly Roger. Whatever the United States thought it was dealing with in Russia, Medvedev made the Russian position very clear. He stated Russian foreign policy in five succinct points, which we can think of as the Medvedev Doctrine (and which we see fit to quote here):

First, Russia recognizes the primacy of the fundamental principles of international law, which define the relations between civilized peoples. We will build our relations with other countries within the framework of these principles and this concept of international law.
Second, the world should be multipolar. A single-pole world is unacceptable. Domination is something we cannot allow. We cannot accept a world order in which one country makes all the decisions, even as serious and influential a country as the United States of America. Such a world is unstable and threatened by conflict.
Third, Russia does not want confrontation with any other country. Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop friendly relations with Europe, the United States, and other countries, as much as is possible.
Fourth, protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they may be, is an unquestionable priority for our country. Our foreign policy decisions will be based on this need. We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad. It should be clear to all that we will respond to any aggressive acts committed against us.
Finally, fifth, as is the case of other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests. These regions are home to countries with which we share special historical relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbors. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbors.
Medvedev concluded, “These are the principles I will follow in carrying out our foreign policy. As for the future, it depends not only on us but also on our friends and partners in the international community. They have a choice.”

here's the link:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/medvedev_doctrine_and_american_strategy

We'll soon be teaching our kids and grandkids to duck and cover if Putin and Cheney have their way.

Zack, of course there's not "proof" of bias. But ...

2008-09-09T15:00:00.000-04:00

Zack, of course there's not "proof" of bias. But the circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. Just try reading some of the past posts again, and you'll readily see the mentality to try to find data supporting the Obama case.

We'll just disagree on the current post. Those bar charts are hugely misleading, and while he didn't come up with a big conclusion, there certainly are inferrences to be drawn from his mode of presentation, intended or unintended.

Granted, there's no perfect way to do this stuff, and it's largely experimental. I just think Nate would be better off if it wasn't so transparent that he's approaching the numbers and reacting to criticisms in a rooting fashion.

"fred said... I am shocked that Nate and Sean a...

2008-09-09T14:44:00.000-04:00

"fred said...

I am shocked that Nate and Sean and the media are spending so much time analyzing data from the bounce. This is not steady state, relax, wait a week.
September 9, 2008 7:15 AM"

Amen, Fred. If you bracket out the outlier USA Today/Gallup McCain is averaging +2 nationally, which is exactly where Nate thought he would be right now.

The daily drip of scandal from Palintologists continues...latest from WaPo, she took per diem for 312 days when she and her family were in their home. There is so much smoke there, we could smoke some nice wild alaska salmon...tick, tick, tick

Rudy,Thanks for your response. I understand that ...

2008-09-09T14:19:00.000-04:00

Rudy,

Thanks for your response. I understand that your criticism is a product of what you see as a trend towards rigging the numbers for Obama, but I still think that you're looking pretty hard to find an Obama bias in this particular post.

While you say that "the only reason to do" such an analysis (i.e. breaking down mothers by race) is to benefit Obama, that's not what the actual numbers showed. Instead, what happened with the numbers that Nate actually posted, was that the numbers got MORE favorable for McCain. Instead of looking at that, though, you seem to be hung up on what inferences might possibly be drawn from the information that Nate DIDN'T show. Seems like a stretch, especially given that Obama pretty convincingly does better among nonwhites than whites.

Regarding the trend adjustment, I don't see that as proof of Nate's bias either, since Nate took it out just before it would have started penalizing McCain. The way I see it, he had two choices (1) admit that his numbers were going to be wacky until the convention dust settled or (2) try to fix the problem with an adjustment that just might cause more harm than good. I think your complaint may be slightly more valid on this issue than on the issue of the current post, but I'm also glad that Nate's not currently adjusting McCain's numbers downward to fit an imperfect convention correction.

I also think it is pretty odd for McCain to have a...

2008-09-09T13:57:00.000-04:00

I also think it is pretty odd for McCain to have a 3 point lead in RCP and generally good state numbers coming out (Ohio plus 7, PA -2, MI -1 come to mind) and still the tracker shows 62%-38% for Obama? Strange.

No, dawolf, you misremember. At the time of the m...

2008-09-09T13:36:00.000-04:00

No, dawolf, you misremember. At the time of the methodology switch, the win probability was 52/48. Yes, Obama should be favored, but the current 61/39 number is silly wrong. So many are on the cust, either way.

The previous polls have a built-in time decay, and there isn't much recent state data, So, the national trackers are mostly it right now. To ignore them in favor of stale data is bad methodology, if that's what you're suggesting.

I'm advocating eliminating bias, not shifting it my direction.

Also, it's ancient now...pre-conventions, pre-VP c...

2008-09-09T13:33:00.000-04:00

Also, it's ancient now...pre-conventions, pre-VP choices, it might as well be a lifetime ago.

It's also a large margin of error. It could be any...

2008-09-09T13:31:00.000-04:00

It's also a large margin of error. It could be anywhere from 57-34 to 47-44.

It indicates a clear lead for McCain but not a whole lot else.

Jackson, correct. It does show an improvement, st...

2008-09-09T13:29:00.001-04:00

Jackson, correct. It does show an improvement, statistically significant, for McCain over Bush 2004.

FL GOP... I see what you mean and mostly agree, bu...

2008-09-09T13:29:00.000-04:00

FL GOP... I see what you mean and mostly agree, but in this case I think you've got it backward.

Shays is not endangered becase a rabid wing of voters will oppose a moderate. He is endangered because lots of moderate voters will oppose an extremist ticket.

Opposition to abortion in all circumstances, plus a publicly stated belief that God guides foreign policy... those are enough to spook masses of moderate voters.

If Reps had really wanted to protect their moderates they should have given more thought to how this ticket might be perceived.

But they were much more concerned with firing up the base than protecting their own moderates. I think it will turn out to be an ill-advised choice and reult in an even more polarized ongreess. But then... we all knew that, right?

Presumably those McCain-Obama numbers are just in ...

2008-09-09T13:25:00.000-04:00

Presumably those McCain-Obama numbers are just in that Pittsburgh-area congressional district.

See below evidence of McCain surge in Pennsylvania...

2008-09-09T13:21:00.000-04:00

See below evidence of McCain surge in Pennsylvania.

September 09, 2008
Categories: Pennsylvania

Pittsburgh Has 44% Hart

Former Pennsylvania Rep. Melissa Hart lost her 2006 race to Democrat Jason Altmire by four points, a margin close enough for Hart to give the race a second shot. A new poll conducted for the Republican's campaign shows the rematch will be just as close.

The survey, conducted 8/17-18 by Public Opinion Strategies for Hart's campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee, surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Altmire and Hart were tester.

General Election Matchup
Altmire.........49
Hart............44

Generic Dem.....40
Generic GOPer...37

McCain..........52
Obama...........39

Pennsylvania turned out to be one of the better states for Democratic pickups in 2006, but Republicans think they have serious opportunities in the Keystone State this year. And she'll have a tailwind provided by John McCain, who leads Barack Obama by a wider margin than the nine points by which President Bush won the district in 2004.

With Altmire so close to 50%, though, and in a significantly better financial position than he was in last cycle, when Hart outspent him more than two-to-one, Altmire's suburban Pittsburgh district will likely prove one of the GOP's tougher challenges.

Gibson: Governor, may I call you Governor?Palin: O...

2008-09-09T13:14:00.000-04:00

Gibson: Governor, may I call you Governor?

Palin: Oh sure.

Gibson: Thank you. Your honoress, Governor Palin, what, exactly, is it like, to raise 4 kids?

Palin: Oh my goodness. Well, that's a tough question.

Gibson: Indeed it is, your holyness. But please do your best.

Palin: Let's see...well...I know it's much harder than being a community orga-whatchamacallit (giggles).

Gibson: (laughing) Genius.

The huge number that spiked McCain from -2 to +3 o...

2008-09-09T13:13:00.000-04:00

The huge number that spiked McCain from -2 to +3 on Sunday drops out tomorrow. We'll see if McCain stays 5% ahead without it.

My guess is no.

@filistroI agree with your post and it is sad -- C...

2008-09-09T13:07:00.000-04:00

@filistro
I agree with your post and it is sad -- Chris Shays is the last of the moderate republicans, and he is probably going down in Connecticut because those voters are unhappy with the top of the ticket. We lost Warner, Hagel, Lincoln Chafee in 2006 and previously a host of moderate democrats like Tom Daschle who would reach across the aisle.
The rabid elements of each party attack the moderates or anyone who does not toe the party line. I have always liked Lieberman, but now he is one of the hated ones. It seems like anyone who demonstrates a profile in courage -- go against your own kind for the good of all should be respected. In general they are voted out of office.

Gallup daily:McCain still up 5, race stabilizing o...

2008-09-09T13:06:00.000-04:00

Gallup daily:

McCain still up 5, race stabilizing on day to day numbers. Nate, update your daily spread re the below.

McCain led Obama by five percentage points in Monday's report on the strength of a six-point increase in the percentage of voters choosing him on the presidential trial heat following the Republican National Convention. McCain's 49% support in today's three-day rolling average, based on Sept. 6-8 interviewing, is unchanged from Monday's report and matches McCain's high mark in Gallup tracking to date.

Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking. McCain also had a 4-point lead over Obama among registered voters in the separate USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted this past weekend.

The GOP convention has clearly altered the structure of the race for now, which had shown Obama consistently ahead in the Gallup Poll Daily tracking updates for all but a few days from the time he clinched the nomination in early June until the end of last week. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)

Alex, aren't you leaving out the fact that Obama w...

2008-09-09T13:05:00.000-04:00

Alex, aren't you leaving out the fact that Obama was hired and worked for a leftist organization when he was a community organizer?

That is "grassroots democracy" only if you have a leftist point of view, correct?

I think that the Obama campaign is handling Palin ...

2008-09-09T13:02:00.000-04:00

I think that the Obama campaign is handling Palin correctly in general. If they go after her too hard, the media won't pounce on her you know the way they will after her first inevitable gaffe.

I saw this on the blog of Craig’s List founder, Craig Newmark, yesterday and thought it was a great idea and worth passing on:

"Hey, this is a good example of genuine grassroots democracy:

ObamaTravel.org is a platform that connects volunteers who want to travel to a swing state with financial sponsors and swing state host families. It’s sort of a political hybrid of craigslist and Team-in-Training - volunteers post profiles and solicit sponsorship from their family and friends. Sponsors can see their donations in action by following the activities of their volunteers.

... and let's remember that "community organizing" is pure grassroots democracy."

@RudyObama was ahead about the same as now. At the...

2008-09-09T12:57:00.001-04:00

@Rudy

Obama was ahead about the same as now. At the time he was being handicapped by 6 points.
Right now, McCain would be being handicapped by 2.

You seem to misunderstand the entire point of this site. It's not about just looking at the last poll, but including the evidence from the many, many previous polls as well.

State polls are generally good for Obama over the last day, with him very likely to win 270 EV's, Rasmussen has it tied, only Gallup is showing McCain well ahead. In that scenario Obama IS favourite no matter what you say.

@ FloridaGOPI hear you, and I mostly agree. My po...

2008-09-09T12:57:00.000-04:00

@ FloridaGOP

I hear you, and I mostly agree. My point was that when you have supposedly neutral moderators asking questions regarding William Ayers, flag pins, degrees of patriotism, etc, it's hardly plausible to see them as nonpartisan. The same goes for Charlie Gibson letting McCain run off at the mouth unchallenged about Obama's "tiny" comment, Alaska's proximity to Russia and the expertise that somehow conveys, Palin's bridge to nowhere, etc. I don't have high hopes for Gibson's Palin extravaganza.

Rudy, the "expense account stuff" has legs because...

2008-09-09T12:52:00.000-04:00

Rudy, the "expense account stuff" has legs because of Palin's stump schtick. ALL SHE TALKS ABOUT is Obama's wasteful spending and ear marks, and her own fiscal discipline in Alaska.

Youy can do almost anything in American politics and still win. What you cannot get away with is being perceived as a hypocrite.

I think the Bradley Effect is happening now with p...

2008-09-09T12:51:00.000-04:00

I think the Bradley Effect is happening now with poll numbers. This is a good thing. If Obama sheds the dead wieght (those who were not going to vote for him but would not admit it) then his path to 270 is less clouded. Those voters have a reason/excuse to to not vote for him (Palin). Shed the wieght now.... work on increasing the DEM base (ground game) and focus on the issues. This is the path to victory!