Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

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2009-10-03T02:58:58.743-04:00

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2009-10-02T06:05:40.310-04:00

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2009-07-22T03:42:30.496-04:00

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2009-07-17T05:44:18.110-04:00

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2009-04-16T22:15:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T05:09:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:53:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-08T21:55:00.000-05:00

I can see a Nate Silver lining there.

2008-11-12T21:17:00.000-05:00

I can see a Nate Silver lining there.

I think most are misunderstanding Alaskan logic.Co...

2008-11-11T06:47:00.000-05:00

I think most are misunderstanding Alaskan logic.

Convicting politicians of felonies BEFORE we elect them is a step toward efficiency in government. It is far more difficult and expensive to convict them after the election. I suspect many Alaskans voted for Stevens precisely because he comes pre-convicted, thus saving taxpayer dollars.

I hear that Ohio and New Jersey have established bipartisan commissions to investigate this Alaskan innovation as a cost-cutting measure.

I have posted an update on the Alaska senatorial r...

2008-11-11T03:49:00.000-05:00

I have posted an update on the Alaska senatorial race at,

http://www.akspaceman.blogspot.com/

This is a better analysis than Nate provided several days ago. I used the previous election to predict absentee votes from polling rates. Also, all numbers are updated from Alaska Division of Elections.

I won't say who's projected in the lead... you'll have to check it out yourself ;-)

Phil wrote:Nate, I have to question your allocatio...

2008-11-10T15:26:00.000-05:00

Phil wrote:

Nate, I have to question your allocation of a majority of absentee votes to Begich. Does AK have no-reason absentee voting?

Yes.

Early voting was conducted by absentee ballots cast in person. (I speak with some authority as an Anchorage voter, District 23 covering downtown & midtown Anchorage, who voted early on Saturday, Nov. 1.)

Early votes cast after Thursday, Oct. 30, have not yet been counted. This is because the Alaska Division of Election discovered that 26 voters had double-voted in the primaries by first voting absentee, then voting a second time at their regular polling place. To avoid double-counts in this election, they are checking the signature forms on absentee ballots against the signatures of people who voted in person on Nov. 4.

Both the Begich and the Alaska Obama campaign encouraged early voting, so a high proportion of the outstanding votes are likely to be for Begich.

Also see the Anchorage Daily News' map of the Senate vote so far, which will give you a visual on the figures Nate gave above. Note that District 18 which covers Ft. Richardson and Elmendorf Air Force Base went Begich -- which matches with what other people here have said here about military voters not necessarily being loyal to Stevens. (Eilson AFB near Fairbanks is in the territorially large Distict 7, which overall went for Stevens.)

An email today from the Begich campaign:There are ...

2008-11-10T15:08:00.000-05:00

An email today from the Begich campaign:

There are currently more than 81,000 early, absentee, and questioned ballots going through the validating process. More ballots are arriving each day, so that number will grow a bit. While currently trailing by 3257 votes, we did exceedingly well with the early votes counted so far (61% for Mark, 48% for Stevens), sent a terrific mail piece to every absentee voter, and question ballots in Alaska usually skew to Democrats. You can see this by going to http//action.begich.com/electoralmap.

This is a race we are fighting for and intend to win.

The Division of Elections (DOE) plans to count 2/3 of the outstanding ballots on Wednesday and those remaining on Friday. All oversees ballots have to be in by Wednesday, November 19th and the DOE plans to certify the election on Tuesday, November 25. A recount, should one be necessary, would occur after that.

The campaign also reports that they've raised $44,000 of the $50,000 goal they're aiming for to cover monitoring of the vote count.

Of course, all of this talk of 60 seats only means...

2008-11-09T23:44:00.000-05:00

Of course, all of this talk of 60 seats only means something if all 60 can be counted on to stick together -- which is not true if the 60 includes Lieberman. So throw him out and face up to the fact that it is 59 at best.

Nate, I have to question your allocation of a majo...

2008-11-09T21:24:00.000-05:00

Nate, I have to question your allocation of a majority of absentee votes to Begich. Does AK have no-reason absentee voting? In many states, like mine, you have to state that you'll be out of town OR are over 60 yrs old. So a high % of absentee ballots are cast by seniors. And they tend to vote Republican. Can anybody shed light on this re AK law? AK Div of Elections web site isn't clear to me on this. Sorry if this has already been discussed, I didn't read all 426 previous posts.

One of the main reasons for McCain choosing Palin ...

2008-11-09T12:25:00.000-05:00

One of the main reasons for McCain choosing Palin was supposed to be to enthuse the Republican base, and boost their turnout on November 4th. But all the evidence is that the opposite happened. The main reason for the disappointing turnout so far seems to have been a very poor turnout of natural Republican voters. So in fact, Palin seems to have been a disaster, contrary to what many believe. Even in her home state of Alaska, the total number of GOP voters appears to have fallen from 190,889 to 136,348 votes.

Don't discount Palin just yet. She's a narcissist...

2008-11-09T12:13:00.000-05:00

Don't discount Palin just yet. She's a narcissist, so it's not that she "doesn't know what she doesn't know," as someone sagely pointed out above -- it's that she doesn't recognize, or care about, what she doesn't know. In her mind, this will have been the media's fault for misrepresenting her. I'll be surprised if this experience has squelched her ambitions in the slightest. Look for her to make a run against Lisa Murkowski in the 2010 primary.

I wish you had reported how many absentee or early...

2008-11-09T11:24:00.000-05:00

I wish you had reported how many absentee or early ballots were left to be counted. Something seems fishy in alaska...I worked as an electon official on election day and we opened and counted 6,000 mail-in ballots in about three hours. Ten people working at this should be able to count 50,000 absentee ballots in a day with no trouble.

If many of those early and absentee votes were cas...

2008-11-08T23:02:00.000-05:00

If many of those early and absentee votes were cast prior to Stevens' conviction, does that mean that Alaskan voters actually liked Stevens *more* after he became a convicted felon?

It must be that midnight sun up there.

As far as the Minnesota Senate race significantly ...

2008-11-08T22:06:00.000-05:00

As far as the Minnesota Senate race significantly lower vote total than the Presidential race, I think it can be easily explained. Neither candidate drew strong support. Similar to the election of Ventura as Governor, Minnesotans were not happy with either candidate. Independent Dean Barkley received 15% of the vote and I think it is reasonable to think that a fiar number of people simply abstained from voting in the Senate race. They may have had strong opinions about the Presidential race, but were fed up with the negative campaigns from both sides of the Senate race (most expensive in the country). We'll see how the recount goes.

@joeMerriam-Webster Dictionary has both definition...

2008-11-08T21:32:00.000-05:00

@joe

Merriam-Webster Dictionary has both definitions for "moot", 1. debatable, 2. of no significance or irrelevant.

American Heritage Dictionary says about the usage of moot:

But in the mid-19th century people also began to look at the hypothetical side of moot as its essential meaning, and they started to use the word to mean “of no significance or relevance.” Thus, a moot point, however debatable, is one that has no practical value. A number of critics have objected to this use, but 59 percent of the Usage Panel accepts it

wv: forshfba, A Yiddish word, not found in either Merriam-Webster, nor American Heritage dictionaries, used to describe the McCain/Palin campaign.

>> Palin can legally appoint anyone and that's the...

2008-11-08T19:43:00.000-05:00

>> Palin can legally appoint anyone and that's their idea of a fair election?

Again folks, that's a misconception based on how most states work. It is no longer the case in AK since voters ratified a voter's initiative in a previous election after the Gov. that Palin replaced appointed his own daughter to the Senate (that seat comes up for re-election in 2 years I believe).

Alaska stops counting early votes a few days befor...

2008-11-08T19:41:00.000-05:00

Alaska stops counting early votes a few days before the early voting closes. I don’t know why, but they do. Those uncounted early votes are true ‘early votes’ and it seems reasonable to allocate them using the same percentage as the early votes that were already counted.

In my experience absentee ballots are largely military, with a good dose of Middle East oil field trash and government workers (embassies) added in. These have always trended heavily Republican. When I worked overseas in Indonesia the Republicans were well organized, and the democrats had no organization. Alaska will be a bit different, as there are probably thousands of folks in the bush who can only vote absentee ballot. If it were me trying to allocate these votes, I would look at 2004 and see how many absentee votes were cast, then allocate that many to each candidate. Any excess I would guess are from new voters, who would like trend more like the early voters. My 2 cents.

To the "grammar nazis" who keep saying it should b...

2008-11-08T19:39:00.000-05:00

To the "grammar nazis" who keep saying it should be "moot" point and not "mute point"... please note that neither is correct for your intended usage.

"Moot" means "open to debate", **not** "settled" or "irrelevant".

So the Grammar God who keeps correcting that can kindly take a hike.

Thank you.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

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I can see a Nate Silver lining there.

I think most are misunderstanding Alaskan logic.Co...

I have posted an update on the Alaska senatorial r...

Phil wrote:Nate, I have to question your allocatio...

An email today from the Begich campaign:There are ...

Of course, all of this talk of 60 seats only means...

Nate, I have to question your allocation of a majo...

One of the main reasons for McCain choosing Palin ...

Don't discount Palin just yet. She's a narcissist...

I wish you had reported how many absentee or early...

If many of those early and absentee votes were cas...

As far as the Minnesota Senate race significantly ...

@joeMerriam-Webster Dictionary has both definition...

>> Palin can legally appoint anyone and that's the...

Alaska stops counting early votes a few days befor...

To the "grammar nazis" who keep saying it should b...

キャッシング網頁設計クレジットカード　現金化ダンボール留学水　通販ウィークリ...

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