Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama FTW

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test

2009-01-01T14:25:43.569-05:00

test

Nate, I love you, but you are wrong on the tax cut...

2008-12-31T12:12:12.440-05:00

Nate, I love you, but you are wrong on the tax cuts. The long term problem that the nation faces is too LOW a level of national savings. Any solution to our short term problem (ie the recession) will involve a reduction in national savings for any given level of GDP because the solution will necessarily involve an increase in the government deficit. The trick is to keep the short term decrease in national savings as small as possible while still propelling the economy back to full employment. Government spending does this MUCH more effectively than tax cuts because: 1) Government spending has more "bang for the deficit buck" in terms of increasing aggregate demand, employment and GDP, and 2) Government spending can be on capital projects which increase national savings. We DON'T want to encourage consumption with tax cuts or otherwise - that has been the biggest structural problem for the economy since the 1990's. Having taken Macroeconomics at the University of Chicago, you can be forgiven for not knowing any of this, so you're still a hero.

@Scott D:Nate said "significant fraction", not "mo...

2008-12-30T20:35:28.771-05:00

@Scott D:
Nate said "significant fraction", not "most", of the stimulus package will go to tax cuts. Remember that Obama promised a middle-class tax cut for those earning less than $200K/year. That will be considered part of the stimulus package.

@Scott E:
I think "Obama FTW" in the title of this post meant "Obama for the win!"

obama fcuk the world?

2008-12-30T20:00:48.382-05:00

obama fcuk the world?

I hope you are wrong, Nate, that most of Obama's s...

2008-12-30T19:51:01.531-05:00

I hope you are wrong, Nate, that most of Obama's stimulus package will go to tax cuts rather than spending increases. Last night on Maddow's show, Paul Krugman argued strongly that tax cuts are the wrong way to go because then the government can't ensure the money is spent in a way that creates jobs and invests in the country.

My biggest fear is that we haven't fixed much of w...

2008-12-30T17:50:34.099-05:00

My biggest fear is that we haven't fixed much of what got us in this mess to begin with, namely easy credit. Sure, the banks aren't lending now, but once they do, what's to stop the next bubble?

Nice parroting of the current conservative claptra...

2008-12-30T14:33:24.698-05:00

Nice parroting of the current conservative claptrap, MR. The idea that "the market" is more in the business of helping "the many" than government is particularly amusing.

When your strongest argument is "the Great Depression might not have been as bad if the government had done nothing, but who knows," you're treading on pretty thin ice. Unfortunately for you, the current conservative canard that FDR made the Depression worse is mainly being argued by political operatives like Grover Norquist supported by cherry-picked statistics, and the counter-argument is mainly being made by Nobel Prize-winning economists with a bundle of historical data to support it.

After the trashing the economy has received from unregulated derivatives markets established under the market-worshipping dogma that government regulation is always bad, the vast majority of Americans have gotten a clue. You might want to try it.

(Oh, and please go ahead and claim impressive credentials that are impossible to verify in an anonymous forum. Argument from authority is always soooo convincing...)

Kennyb,I don't necessarily think what I said would...

2008-12-30T14:23:13.516-05:00

Kennyb,

I don't necessarily think what I said would happen makes sens. But I still think this is going to happen. This is an extremely odd situation. And what Fred said: maybe you'd have something with most other candidates, but with Burris, Blago specifically chose someone the Democrats would have difficulty rejecting.

I think it's fairly clear that one can spend one's...

2008-12-30T14:21:48.875-05:00

I think it's fairly clear that one can spend one's way out of a depression. That's just what we did in WWII. The problem with FDR's depression moves was that he didn't spend enough.

Mule Rider is going to be very disappointed to find that the people in charge of this country agree with me and not him.

Nate: 'wont' is a great word, but it just doesn't ...

2008-12-30T14:15:59.363-05:00

Nate: 'wont' is a great word, but it just doesn't work there. Wont refers to a general tendency, not to a theoretical likelihood; 'is wont to do' doesn't mean "is likely to do" but "usually does." Since there has never been an Obama stimulus package before, it needs to be either "stimulus packages are wont to do" or "Obama's stimulus package is likely to do."

</grammar nazi>

Spock?Why not just look at Japan and Sweden who ju...

2008-12-30T14:06:10.651-05:00

Spock?

Why not just look at Japan and Sweden who just went through this. Sweden had the gov take over the banks and came out quickly, Japan did not and was mired in it for years.

We also have a much better financial system than we did in the '30's - at least when it is functioning.

Kennyb-If it was almost anyone but Burris I would ...

2008-12-30T14:02:12.590-05:00

Kennyb-

If it was almost anyone but Burris I would agree, but Burris is untainted. He is also a Blago foe, who ran against him.

LOL! That MuleRdier (MR) statement is truly hilar...

2008-12-30T14:00:18.412-05:00

LOL! That MuleRdier (MR) statement is truly hilarious coming from MR, our resident troll!

Go Nate!

Mule Rider? I thought you withdrew from the fray?...

2008-12-30T14:00:01.160-05:00

Mule Rider? I thought you withdrew from the fray? I sense more than a little Nate-envy....

But back to the topic -- I vote for lots and lots of infrastructure. Americans are feeling poorly about themselves, and it is time to step up and get our systems moving, or modernized, or whatever they need. Fix the pot holes!

I don't think that's a great prediction at all, Jo...

2008-12-30T13:58:41.975-05:00

I don't think that's a great prediction at all, John & fred.

Let me be the first to ask (unfairly): How much Burris paid Blago for the appointment?

It's not the qualifications of the appointee, it's the whole idea of letting Blago appoint someone to a position he tried to sell a few weeks before. No one sees the stink around that?

WOW! Blago is going to make the appointment in on...

2008-12-30T13:58:20.033-05:00

WOW! Blago is going to make the appointment in one hour at a news conference.

Great prediction, you may very well be right.I als...

2008-12-30T13:50:10.844-05:00

Great prediction, you may very well be right.

I also bet Blago is not convicted for the Senate selling stuff,but he might go down on other things.

I would bet money - if I had it - that the followi...

2008-12-30T13:48:05.854-05:00

I would bet money - if I had it - that the following happens with Blago and Burris:

* The IL Legislature vows to press on with impeachment, even though Blago has done the ultimate a**h*** thing and appointed someone to Obama's seat anyway.
* Blago's choice, despite the ineffective Harry Reid's admonishment that nobody appoint by Blago will ever be seated, will definitely be seated. I think a larger percentage of Repubs will seat him, because they already know (may have figured out) that many Americans view their party as, well, not a party for African-Americans. Since they probably suspect that the Dems will not seat any Blago choice (which they seem to be sworn to follow through on), the GOP sees an opportunity to paint the Dems as both racist and obstructionist.
*Enough Dems will vote for Blago's appointment just to end this mess.
*Blago remains governor of Illinois, because the legislature sees no real reason to get rid of him anymore.
*Blago gets off scot-free and remains governor, a testament to the embarrassing corruption in the Illinois political machine.

Burris ran against Blago in the 2002 gubenatorial ...

2008-12-30T13:32:10.057-05:00

Burris ran against Blago in the 2002 gubenatorial primary. Burris has a long history in IL and is generally viewed as outside the machine. I don't think he has ever been tainted.

He did run for Senate too, in the '90's.

Burris has never had a rumor of scandal around him that I know of...

I bet he gets seated....right now folks are still angling to stop Blago from making the appointment. If he does...I bet they seat Burris.

AARGH. WTF is with this sudden "fiscal responsibil...

2008-12-30T13:27:35.910-05:00

AARGH. WTF is with this sudden "fiscal responsibility" on the part of the Republicans - the same Republicans who have been blowing public money like a drunken sailor for the past eight years to the tune of $10 trillion?

Blatant hypocrisy? Bald-faced lying? It doesn't surprise me that they do it, since it appears to work, what does surprise me is how many people still associate "fiscal responsibility" with the GOP, when they haven't practiced it in a generation. It demonstrates the power of branding, I guess, and how successfully they've defined "fiscal responsibility" to mean "tax cuts," even if they massively increase spending.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama FTW

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Nate, I love you, but you are wrong on the tax cut...

@Scott D:Nate said "significant fraction", not "mo...

obama fcuk the world?

I hope you are wrong, Nate, that most of Obama's s...

My biggest fear is that we haven't fixed much of w...

Nice parroting of the current conservative claptra...

Kennyb,I don't necessarily think what I said would...

I think it's fairly clear that one can spend one's...

Nate: 'wont' is a great word, but it just doesn't ...

Spock?Why not just look at Japan and Sweden who ju...

Kennyb-If it was almost anyone but Burris I would ...

LOL! That MuleRdier (MR) statement is truly hilar...

Mule Rider? I thought you withdrew from the fray?...

I don't think that's a great prediction at all, Jo...

WOW! Blago is going to make the appointment in on...

Great prediction, you may very well be right.I als...

I would bet money - if I had it - that the followi...

Burris ran against Blago in the 2002 gubenatorial ...

AARGH. WTF is with this sudden "fiscal responsibil...

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