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2009-01-17T01:07:00.000-05:00

what are the rules?if difference is ONE vote, winn...

2008-12-21T15:56:00.000-05:00

what are the rules?
if difference is ONE vote, winner takes all?

Should I take it as a bad sign for Franken then th...

2008-12-19T21:42:00.000-05:00

Should I take it as a bad sign for Franken then that, according to the Star Tribune, he was only ahead by 251 at the end of the day? If he loses 385 votes out of the withdrawals (which is an aspect of the process I don't understand very well, admittedly), then he'll lose by 134.

Unless, that is, the rejected absentee ballots can have some major impact. I wouldn't expect a 3 digit swing from those votes, but that's just me throwing a guess out there, based on nothing.

Vote Lizard People for Senate in 2010!

2008-12-19T20:42:00.000-05:00

Vote Lizard People for Senate in 2010!

Big fan of Lizard People here.I just received a ba...

2008-12-19T19:58:00.000-05:00

Big fan of Lizard People here.

I just received a ballot for the Board of Directors of a conservation org that I belong to. After voting for all the Director candidates, I dutifully wrote "Lizard People" somewhere else on the ballot. It's the right thing to do.

(I'm quite confident that it won't invalidate my vote; even if it did, the BoD candidates always win election, because what the WTF: they're the ones who've volunteered to do the work.)

I encourage everyone to vote Lizard People wherever possible.

wv: viono -- your reaction if it persists for over four hours.

Dear Pragmatus, there is a far more pragmatic appr...

2008-12-19T19:03:00.000-05:00

Dear Pragmatus, there is a far more pragmatic approach!

Forsooth: Firefox has extensions that allow you to manage java sripts quite easily and simply.

I have one such an extension on by browser now; when I visit the strib page, it takes merely two mouse clicks to see the streaming video and I get none, zero popups. Further, I can block cookies from the site and even manage what IP address they see me as having. Were they to ask me to register (they don't, but hypothetically speaking), another extension allows me to post a disposable single-use email address with one click of a button.

Firefox is craftier than the website, and far more secure than IE.

I advise people not to go to that Minneapolis Star...

2008-12-19T18:07:00.000-05:00

I advise people not to go to that Minneapolis Star-Trib site, unless you like battling Java-script crap and fake "NEXT" buttons which loads pop-up garbage. If newspapers are going into the toilet in this country it's not hard to see why--who would go twice to a site that contained such blatant, aggravating irritants? It's like trying to read in a cloud of mosquitoes.

Memo to the Strib: Getting people's attention and getting their attention by pissing them off is not the same thing.

Lizard People voter wrote that name in, I think, a...

2008-12-19T16:36:00.000-05:00

Lizard People voter wrote that name in, I think, all the write-in spaces and market the oval with an X.

In the Senate race, he wrote in Lizard People, but he did NOT mark an X. In Franken's oval, he filled it in, AND put the X there.

Obviously, he was being emphatic about his intent to vote for Franken.

Great post!Would you like a Link Exchange with our...

2008-12-19T16:28:00.000-05:00

Great post!

Would you like a Link Exchange with our new blog COMMON CENTS where we blog about the issues of the day??

http://www.commoncts.blogspot.com

I think I've got it!The Lizard People thing? It wa...

2008-12-19T16:18:00.000-05:00

I think I've got it!

The Lizard People thing? It was a typo. The voter intended to write "Blizzard People". This being Minnesota, they have more blizzards than lizards. Now, just by looking at him, you can see that Norm Coleman is not a Blizzard Person. This is obvious because of his excessive use of hairspray, which would result in hypothermia were he actually trapped out in a blizzard. Have you noticed that his hair never moves, even when it's windy outside? Clearly he is not adapted to these kind of conditions.

Franken, by contrast, eschews the use of hairspray, and wears glasses, which would be very useful in keeping the snow and wind out of his eyes. I have never seen him without his shirt, so I cannot say if he is or is not a Yeti. Therefore, it is clearly an Al Franken vote.

The Lizard people ballot looks to me like the vote...

2008-12-19T16:10:00.000-05:00

The Lizard people ballot looks to me like the voter could have put an X thru Franken's oval in order to write in Lizard People (as a protest).

I was against including it weeks ago, and especially given that the Board generally saw X as meaning obliteration (absent any other evidence), I expected it to go down.

The fact that "Other" went from 198 only to 229 (before they began the second batches of challenges)---instead of the direct 249 extrapolation of Thursday's close---may be evidence that Nate's revision to +70 (the STrib upticked briefly to 82, now back at 74) is right.

A few points:1. If Colman is behind after this sta...

2008-12-19T15:44:00.000-05:00

A few points:

1. If Colman is behind after this stage, he cannot win this election (assuming the absentee ballots go for Franken) no matter how many lawyers and judges get involved. He and only prolonging the inevitable.

2. Are we quite sure Franken will win the absentee ballots? I thought Republicans voted absentee. Or is it where they are from that makes them pro Franken.

3. I think Franken should get the "Lizard People" ballot vote. Clearly the voter wanted the Lizard People to be on the ballot for consideration for various offices. And indeed the Lizard People were deemed qualified for the office of President. However upon careful deliberation Franken was deemed to be more qualified for the Senate than the Lizard People.

4. I love the "5th pile" terminology. It sounds like something you leave on the floor on the fifth day of your stay in a North Korean prison.

Why is Franken's lead going down so quickly? I tho...

2008-12-19T15:20:00.000-05:00

Why is Franken's lead going down so quickly? I thought they were only considering Coleman challenges today.

I managed to keep awake while watching 30 minutes ...

2008-12-19T15:10:00.000-05:00

I managed to keep awake while watching 30 minutes of this during my lunch break. Franken was up to 287 at one point, now down about 10 from that as they consider Franken challenges to Coleman votes.

Coleman's challenges are ALL frivolous -- every one that I saw. Franken wins about 1 in 5 or 6 challenges and those votes go into the "3rd pile" -- counted as undervotes.

At this point, unless there are a lot more Franken challenges to Coleman votes, Franken is going to win handily.

I wish we could get the skinny from a Franken insi...

2008-12-19T14:54:00.000-05:00

I wish we could get the skinny from a Franken insider. With all of these ballots out in the open, and with of the early-withdrawns reverting to their original classification, they should be pretty darned confident one way or another.

In absence of word from Franken's camp (and I don't mean public word because they would be sounding optimistic regardless)I think the court filings are the most telling. If Coleman thought he would be ahead after this CB meeting, he wouldn't want yesterday's ruling amended in the slightest.

And, no this won't get a USSC hearing. (Not that Coleman won't try.) Bush v. Gore aside as one of the worst cases in the history of the Court, they really do defer to the States (as they ought to). I can't see the USSC taking this up unless the Senate refuses to seat the certified winner, or if they do seat someone without certification, or if they were to order a run-off.

How does "Franken +70" work? If it was Franken +4...

2008-12-19T14:42:00.000-05:00

How does "Franken +70" work? If it was Franken +4 assuming all-challenges-denied, and Franken won 115 challenges (maybe 116 if the board reversed a Coleman vote per Eiseley 12:34) plus 2 "flips", that means Coleman won only 41 challenges. But he was reported midmorning as having won 19 new votes + 44 takeaways = 63, and won a few more after that.

Perhaps Franken has a bunch of likely wins hiding in his 23 "unresolved" challenges, with no matching bundle for Coleman? (I note that 6 Apple Valley ones, one Wilkin-Breckenridge, and maybe 2 more from Ramsey-St. Paul and Stevens-Swan Lake overlap Coleman's challenge list too.) Or some other factor that will summarily grant challenges that haven't been reviewed yet? Or maybe there was yea-amount of uncertainty about election judges' initial rulings, and Franken's "+4" was being conservative?

I do agree that with the STrib filling in resolved challenges, their number should become accurate to within single digits, even in advance of Monday's official entry of all withdrawn challenges.

It was not an identifying characteristic so they b...

2008-12-19T14:39:00.000-05:00

It was not an identifying characteristic so they basically made two suppositions. One: Lizard People is a person. Two: that you do not have to fill in the oval next to a write in ballot in order to indicate intent to vote.

Correct on the first supposition, tho I would have disagreed.

On the second, it's not simply supposition, there's supporting law and precedence that makes a write-in candidate automatically considered, regardless if the bubble is filled or not. So they ruled overvote. Again, I think that's wrong, when examining the entire ballot, it's clear that the guy was emphatically choosing Franken, I believe that was the ONLY filled in oval on the entire ballot, which did have checkmarks.

@ Spectator ConsumerYou're right.And the withdrawn...

2008-12-19T14:08:00.000-05:00

@ Spectator Consumer
You're right.
And the withdrawn challenges are included in the StarTribs challenge, where, as I stated just above, most were pulled because they were obvious. 99-100% of Challenge participants called those as the original LCB ruled on them. Therefore with those results 'included' in the StarTrib challenge projection, its Franken by 75. Those ballots are still available, searchable by precinct, on the StarTrib site, 'Ballot Tracker', for those interested in slogging through them.

The absentee ballots will not decide this. Yesterd...

2008-12-19T13:58:00.000-05:00

The absentee ballots will not decide this. Yesterday's insipid ruling pretty much gives whomever is in the lead the ability to prevent the counting of those ballots. The early-withdraw challenges will decide this. We should be able to determine the EXACTLY what those will be as they will REVERT to the original LCB ruling, which should be available for anyone to look up. I don't understand why this isn't already floating around. The camps have to know it... If we can get that number we can determine exactly what Franken's magic number is using that number and the ones left to be rule on today. Am I wrong about this?

For what its worth, the StarTribune's 'Ballot Chal...

2008-12-19T13:57:00.000-05:00

For what its worth, the StarTribune's 'Ballot Challenge' online allowed anyone to evaluate all 6600+ challenged ballots and used these results to project a winner. The final 'consensus' by participants (I believe I read there were some 26,000 participants) was Franken by 40.

They have continued displaying the Challenge results as the canvassing board evaluates ballots, modifying their projection based on ongoing results...currently they have Franken by 75.
From what I saw while participating the vast majority of challenges were no-brainers....the challenges should never have been made and were rejected. This supports Franken's and Nate's assumptions on this point. The only thing the canvassing board seems to be doing compared to the Challenge participants is rejecting more ballots due to 'identifying marks' etc - the Challenge now puts more than 500 in the 'Other/no one' category whereas there were only about 400 there before the canvassing board results were factored in. I expected this since identifying such ballots required inspecting the entire ballot, which was made a bit difficult in the Challenge by the fact one had to load another page...most didn't bother.

I had Franken by 120 until I gave up. A few commenters on the StarTrib site who had evaluated all of the challenged ballots stated they all had Franken by about 80, remarkably close to the current projection of Franken by 75.

With the decision on counting the wrongfully rejected absentee ballots, Franken has this all but wrapped up !

@Tony: fundamentally I agree with you. All Coleman...

2008-12-19T13:47:00.000-05:00

@Tony: fundamentally I agree with you. All Coleman can do is hand-to-hand combat for each vote. He has no winning rule-driven strategy -- and no advantage under any standard vote counting rules.

Given that it's quite likely that more voters cast legitimate ballots for Franken than for Coleman, all Coleman can hope to do is to stop the process at some point when he has a temporary advantage (this strategy has failed so far), or to change the rules (hasn't worked yet), or to change the venue (intervention by federal courts).

Juris: This talk of "strategy" is meaningless, the...

2008-12-19T13:40:00.000-05:00

Juris: This talk of "strategy" is meaningless, there is no "strategy" left other than fight for every vote you have a chance of winning, and don't waste energy on votes you have no chance of winning. There are no real time limits to worry about. At this point all Coleman can do is watch the wreck happen, and perhaps take it up further in court, but Franken isn't going to give an inch and neither is he, and neither has any incentive to do so. Strategy is done.

What's up with these terms? Blue folder? Fifth P...

2008-12-19T13:37:00.000-05:00

What's up with these terms? Blue folder? Fifth Pile?

Who makes this shit up? Is there actually a reason for it?

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Pha...

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

what are the rules?if difference is ONE vote, winn...

Should I take it as a bad sign for Franken then th...

Vote Lizard People for Senate in 2010!

Big fan of Lizard People here.I just received a ba...

Dear Pragmatus, there is a far more pragmatic appr...

I advise people not to go to that Minneapolis Star...

Lizard People voter wrote that name in, I think, a...

Great post!Would you like a Link Exchange with our...

I think I've got it!The Lizard People thing? It wa...

The Lizard people ballot looks to me like the vote...

A few points:1. If Colman is behind after this sta...

Why is Franken's lead going down so quickly? I tho...

I managed to keep awake while watching 30 minutes ...

I wish we could get the skinny from a Franken insi...

How does "Franken +70" work? If it was Franken +4...

It was not an identifying characteristic so they b...

@ Spectator ConsumerYou're right.And the withdrawn...

The absentee ballots will not decide this. Yesterd...

For what its worth, the StarTribune's 'Ballot Chal...

@Tony: fundamentally I agree with you. All Coleman...

Juris: This talk of "strategy" is meaningless, the...

What's up with these terms? Blue folder? Fifth P...

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Franken Appears Likely to Lead After Challenge Pha...

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

what are the rules?if difference is ONE vote, winn...

Should I take it as a bad sign for Franken then th...

Vote Lizard People for Senate in 2010!

Big fan of Lizard People here.I just received a ba...

Dear Pragmatus, there is a far more pragmatic appr...

I advise people not to go to that Minneapolis Star...

Lizard People voter wrote that name in, I think, a...

Great post!Would you like a Link Exchange with our...

I think I've got it!The Lizard People thing? It wa...

The Lizard people ballot looks to me like the vote...

A few points:1. If Colman is behind after this sta...

Why is Franken's lead going down so quickly? I tho...

I managed to keep awake while watching 30 minutes ...

I wish we could get the skinny from a Franken insi...

How does "Franken +70" work? If it was Franken +4...

It was not an identifying characteristic so they b...

@ Spectator ConsumerYou're right.And the withdrawn...

The absentee ballots will not decide this. Yesterd...

For what its worth, the StarTribune's 'Ballot Chal...

@Tony: fundamentally I agree with you. All Coleman...

Juris: This talk of "strategy" is meaningless, the...

What's up with these terms? Blue folder? Fifth P...

外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 ...