Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Missouri

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2009-10-03T03:31:52.087-04:00

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2009-08-28T03:43:40.832-04:00

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2009-04-06T13:38:00.000-04:00

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2009-01-17T04:18:00.000-05:00

Sean, I didn't realize you are a MO native too...k...

2008-11-03T16:08:00.000-05:00

Sean, I didn't realize you are a MO native too...knew there was a reason I liked your sense of humor.

Though, I have to say I'm more of a KC than SL girl, and not so much hockey. Sorry....:) Loved the MO analysis, it was spot on, especially down to the red/blue areas, (I grew up in Sullivan Co., up in Northeast MO, very red, but certiainly in the 'ee' part of the state, not the 'uh' part of the state.

And here's to a fine, Missouri public education, (only six years for me though). I have to admit, I did eventually get my degree at UCLA though, not MU.

Go Missouri! Even in the so-called liberal Clayto...

2008-11-02T08:54:00.000-05:00

Go Missouri! Even in the so-called liberal Clayton, Mcain-Palin signs dot our neighborhood while Obama signs still dominiate - but it's no landslide. Columbia can sometimes be counted to go with us (those Mizzou folks) but those rural Missouri people are intense.

You're a Bitter Bitch Blues Fan?Poor bastard.

2008-11-01T17:30:00.000-04:00

You're a Bitter Bitch Blues Fan?

Poor bastard.

States considered Swing States at one point or ano...

2008-11-01T15:01:00.000-04:00

States considered Swing States at one point or another Projection:

(somewhat difficult because we don't now exactly whose name appears as third part candidates in each state. I'm in texas. Bob Barr is on te ballot, Nader is not.)

National Obama +4.9%

Kerry Blue States

Oregon Obama +13
Washington Obama +12
Michigan Obama +11
Wisconsin Obama +10
Minnesota Obama +10
Maine district 2 Obama +9
New Hampshire Obama +9
Pennsylvania Obama +7

Bush Red States

New Mexico Obama +12
Iowa Obama +10
Nevada Obama +10
Virginia Obama +8
Colorado Obama +7
Ohio Obama +5
Florida Obama +4
North Carolina Obama +2
Missouri Tied (within 1 point)
Georgia Tied (within 1 point)
Indiana McCain +2
North Dakota McCain +3
Arizona McCain +3
Mississippi McCain +3
Montana McCain +4
Louisiana McCain +5
Omaha McCain +6
Tennessee McCain +7
West Virginia McCain +7
Arkansas McCain +8

Obama wins between 349-375 electoral votes

Popular vote
Obama 51.4
McCain 46.5
Barr 1.2
Nader 0.8
Mckinney 0.1

59 Dem Senators (including Liberman and Sanders)

Hello?! Columbia? You can't jump from KC to StL wi...

2008-11-01T14:24:00.000-04:00

Hello?! Columbia? You can't jump from KC to StL without at least mentioning the University of Missouri in the middle of the state. Obama was just here on Thursday. Jeez

Hey Nate: First time commenter, long time reader.J...

2008-11-01T14:08:00.000-04:00

Hey Nate: First time commenter, long time reader.

Just wanted to let you know that last night I was sitting at home in Portland, Oregon, decided I had nothing else to do this weekend, and booked plane tickets to Kansas City to volunteer for Obama in Missouri.

I've never volunteered in politics before, but I figured now is the time. I'm sitting in Denver airport waiting for my connection to Kansas City.

I have a friend I'm crashing with, she's a lawyer getting trained as a poll judge. Other than that, I'm just gonna show up and see what happens. Keep up the great work, everyone. Do your part.

If there's anyone in KC who can direct me and my friend where to show up and help, feel free to email me at (this username)@gmail.com

Hey Sean--You know the area, so consider this. I d...

2008-11-01T10:04:00.000-04:00

Hey Sean--You know the area, so consider this. I drove down the stretch of McKnight Rd between Clayton and Litzinger the other day (this is in the heart of the Republican part of St. Louis County) and there were nothing but Obama signs. Four years ago this was all Bush. In my community, Webster Groves, Obama signs outnumber McCain by at least 2 to 1. Webster used to be a Republican haven. The county is going blue. Will it go Big Blue? Also, the absentee voting lines in the county are jammed, with hundreds of young African American men waiting hours to cast their vote.

Here in Detroit, we may not have luxuries like "mo...

2008-11-01T09:26:00.000-04:00

Here in Detroit, we may not have luxuries like "money" or "jobs", but at least we have our Red Wings.

So you in StL can keep your "functioning economy". We win titles. And what's more important, really: feeding your children or a Stanley Cup?

(we do still root for Manny, though)

The Blues look good this season, much improvement ...

2008-11-01T09:11:00.000-04:00

The Blues look good this season, much improvement over last year.

I live in St Louis County and can only say that I ...

2008-11-01T08:14:00.000-04:00

I live in St Louis County and can only say that I walk in Kirkwood and Chesterfield and have NEVER seen so many Democratic signs. Been walking in downtown Kirkwood for 13 years and in each election cycyle that I remember, I'd see a couple of Dem. signs. I'll bet 40 percent of the signs I see over there now are for Obama-Biden. Same for the neighborhood where I live in Chesterfield. More Dem signs than ever seen. Hope this bodes well for Obama/Biden.

Now, if only Todd Akin, world's WORST House Member would go away. Not this time, I'm sure, but someone will be emboldened to run against this creep.

I think "leans democratic" is a weird way to descr...

2008-11-01T04:44:00.000-04:00

I think "leans democratic" is a weird way to describe the gubernatorial race since Nixon is probably a 100% statistical lock to win.

Where by "Nate", I clearly mean "Sean".

2008-11-01T03:59:00.000-04:00

Where by "Nate", I clearly mean "Sean".

Sitting at an Obama projection of 0.1% today, Miss...

2008-11-01T03:56:00.000-04:00

Sitting at an Obama projection of 0.1% today, Missouri is truly the median state of the 2008 election, and it could go either way.

C'mon Nate, I know you know that's not what median means! Missouri is 29th best for Obama right now (counting DC). The median would be 26th, and that's Nevada.

Come to think of it, it's pretty impressive that Obama is likely to win a majority of states, given that Bush won 30 each of the past two times.

Speaking of the bipartial couple, I'm thinking abo...

2008-11-01T01:18:00.000-04:00

Speaking of the bipartial couple, I'm thinking about dating a self-described "moderate Republican."

Pick-up line: "Hey, I'm a moderate Republican, too! In fact, I'm so moderate, I'm a liberal Democrat."

If James Carville can make it work, why not? Sometimes he pisses ME off, and I have to remind myself he's on our side.

spreedis: The spreedis now so big McCain can't make up the difference.

If the kids don't turn out to vote this election, ...

2008-11-01T01:12:00.000-04:00

If the kids don't turn out to vote this election, I'm gonna shank a bitch. Srsly.

WHO CARES ABOUT MIDTERMS; THE CURVES WILL SAVE YOU ALL~!

wv: cultight

By the way, read the new post. Zogby has messed up...

2008-11-01T01:10:00.000-04:00

By the way, read the new post. Zogby has messed up party ID distribution, and one-day poll results are extremely volatile, with huge margins of error. This poll is clearly an outlier, too. 8 points difference in one day? Please. That's ridiculous.

Dave Brodbeck, if you live in Virginia, you cannot...

2008-11-01T01:09:00.000-04:00

Dave Brodbeck, if you live in Virginia, you cannot wear any political gear to a polling place. If the poll workers are doing their jobs correctly, they will just ask you to put a jacket on over it or turn your shirt inside out or put your pin in your pocket, then let you vote. You can hand out political literature, but you must be a certain number of feet from the door of the polling place (can't remember how far). You can also carry a sample Democratic or Republican ballot into the polling place with you.

I don't know about other states.

BTW, I voted today in Leesburg, VA, stood in line about an hour. Nearly everyone was smiling, polite, and patient. One dickhead yelled "Use your brain, vote McCain" as he walked out. He got half his wish.

McCain lost this campaign a year ago, when Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter said they would rather vote for Hillary than McCain. He had to go crawling to W. for an endorsement, which provided Obama with all the ammunition he needed. All further pandering to the Republican base just increased the size of McCain's hole.

12-16 years in the wilderness may give the Republican base a clue: STFU and allow your nominee to move toward the center. That's what liberals did with Clinton, and it worked.

First, thanks for the great site. I saw you on HD...

2008-11-01T00:53:00.000-04:00

First, thanks for the great site. I saw you on HD Net last night - very impressive.

I looked at the latest gallup (10/31), and they say there is no evidence of a higher youth turnout this year compared to 2004. This seems counterintuitive. Would you have a comment? Do you differ with their interpretation of things?

Here is the link: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111685/Update-Little-Evidence-Surge-Youth-Vote.aspx

Thanks

SEANPLEASE come to the current thread & vanquish t...

2008-11-01T00:49:00.000-04:00

SEAN

PLEASE come to the current thread & vanquish the sock pupper 'petekent'

he has been infesting the threads for days & posting non-stop blather in a vile way while posing as the 'real PeteKent...

beyond annoying IMHO

Mainer said...Why does right wing conspiracist kee...

2008-11-01T00:43:00.000-04:00

Mainer said...
Why does right wing conspiracist keep mentioning ME along with red states? It hasn't gone Republican for 20 years.

Maine does some vote-splitting thing (like... Nebraska, is it?), so those two states have little boxes on them in the projection map.

Are any of the actual rightwing/puma posters actually here anymore, or are they all just trolls?

wr: The GOP (Party) may yet be an ex-party; dessesse-d; bereft of life....

wr mark2: ofershor (PALIN INVADING THE MACHINE?)

Sean, let me give you some hope.I have family in M...

2008-11-01T00:32:00.000-04:00

Sean, let me give you some hope.

I have family in Missouri, though I am living in California. My daughter and her husband and my ex-husband are still there in a small town called Kissee Mills, not far from Branson and definitely in Republican country... or, rather, in Evangelical country.

But they have converted 4 people to Obama votes in the past 6 months. It doesn't sound like much, but it is (as you know) a land of older, very white, very Christian people with church signs telling you how to vote.

Tomorrow, my daughter and family are going to Springfield to see Obama. They are excited.

Those 4 that were converted were men, all over 50 and either farmers or ranchers. I think that bodes well and that Missouri WILL go blue.