Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Which Candidate has a Base Problem?

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2009-03-11T05:41:00.001-04:00

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2009-02-12T22:05:00.000-05:00

I'm so glad you did this breakdown. It's somethin...

2008-06-27T17:00:00.000-04:00

I'm so glad you did this breakdown. It's something I've been watching over at pollingreport.com. When the favorable/unfavorable polls broke down how favorable/unfavorable the responder's opinion was, an entirely different picture emerged than the one we usually see on the MSM. Obama and McCain were both polling nationally as about even in favorable but when broken down, most of McCain's favorable response was in the somewhat favorable category vs. most of Obama's was of the extremely favorable category.

--GFORD

I remember four years ago when a lot of my Democra...

2008-06-27T04:49:00.000-04:00

I remember four years ago when a lot of my Democratic friends were clamoring for a Kerry-McCain "unity" ticket at least in part because McCain was a "moderate." There is still that perception among some Democrats that John McCain is a moderate, which may help to explain why his unfavorables aren't as high among Democrats.

Right now, Obama is still to some extent running against the perception of McCain rather than the real McCain. But that is changing. We're seeing that when Democrats and Democratic leaners - especially women - are disabused of this notion, they reject McCain in droves.

I suspect Obama will win a larger percentage of hi...

2008-06-26T19:35:00.000-04:00

I suspect Obama will win a larger percentage of his "unfavorables" than will McCain. Many of those "unfavorables" are likely former Hillary supporters who, while not as extreme as the PUMA's, are peeved that Hillary lost and haven't warmed to Obama yet, but who will probably end up voting for him anyway, particularly if the election looks like it will be close. (In other words, people who feel about Obama the way I'd be feeling about Hillary right now if she'd gotten the nomination.)

In McCain's case, he locked up the nomination without much controversy in early March, and there haven't been any recent events that might drive up his "unfavorables". So those who have an unfavorable opinion of him now are probably not all that likely to change their minds between now and November -- it's just a question of how many will "hold their nose and vote for him" anyway.

I think one thing the Obama campaign needs to hamm...

2008-06-26T17:30:00.000-04:00

I think one thing the Obama campaign needs to hammer home is that 90% of Americans will have lower taxes with Obama's tax plan than with McCain's tax plan. If you take away McCain's "lower taxes" BS then he's really got nothing left.

As a practicing physician, I must say that it is a...

2008-06-26T16:07:00.000-04:00

As a practicing physician, I must say that it is always amusing when the Christian Right wants to dictate how Medicine should be practiced.

It's of little wonder to me that I've never met a fellow doctor who is a member of the Christian Right. Why? Because if the Christian Right knew the things we know, and if they saw the things we see, they would realize how stupid those opinions are about our work.

One thing this country doesn't need is the Christian Right telling doctors how to be doctors, anymore than we need the American Medical Association telling preachers how to be preachers.

Go to medical school and residency if you can, ye Christian zealots... we'll see what opinions you have when you actually know something of what you're talking about.

Here's one more vote for Obama despite the fact that the Bush tax cuts make life even easier for people in the "doctor level" high income range.

Live birth abortion is done only in a situation wh...

2008-06-26T14:20:00.000-04:00

Live birth abortion is done only in a situation where the mother's life is at risk or the baby will not survive without large amounts of intensive care, and will still not be functional even afterwards. And no, the baby isn't left to die on a shelf in a closet somewhere. These are difficult ethical issues that are, in the case of no legal restrictions, decided by the parents and the doctors involved. They consider the circumstances of each distinct case carefully before they go through with a live birth abortion. You are correct, though. Obama's blocking of that bill in Illinois is often cited by social conservatives as the reason that he is a terrible person and shouldn't be President. Funny how easy it is to judge parents trying to decide on their baby's life or death from that high horse of theirs.

Doesn't McCain have a list of states they think wi...

2008-06-26T14:15:00.000-04:00

Doesn't McCain have a list of states they think will be competitive on their website? i saw it circulated recently... the one that included MN and WA?

http://www.johnmccain.com/strategybriefing/

I guess you'd have to accept the McCain assumption that states like VA, NC, GA and IN are solidly red, but it would be an interesting trip through McCainworld...

HigglytownFor those asking why Obama has a 52% unf...

2008-06-26T14:00:00.000-04:00

Higglytown
For those asking why Obama has a 52% unfavorable rating among Republicans, here is my reason: He took a stance in the Illinois legislature that was pro-Live Birth Abortion, and blocked the bill to disallow this practice from even being voted on in his committee. This practice is where a late term baby survives the abortion process and is alive at the time of birth. The law (now in place in Illinois after Obama left and relinquished his health and human services committee chairmanship) basically says hospitals must do what they can to keep these babies alive. The prior practice was to shelve these babies in a dark room and allow them to cry themselves to death after a 2 to 3 day period at times, it was grotesque and I could never vote for him for that reason.

Maybe you should let doctors practice medicine without right-wing demagogues breathing down their throats.

Yeah, I wouldn't even put knowledge in the elector...

2008-06-26T13:52:00.000-04:00

Yeah, I wouldn't even put knowledge in the electorate at 4%. It's not a campaign issue because McCain would have to attack Obama from the left -- a non-starter obviously.

I wanted to respond to this comment from earlier upstream:

what the right knows is that you have to keep the base no matter what, but what the left always does is throw it's base under the bus.

The largest advantage of campaigning in Alaska is forcing McCain to flip on ANWR. As was detailed on HuffPost yesterday, the Republican Evangelical-base during this election cycle has added the environment to the traditional gays, and abortion platform, and is beginning to make head fakes towards poverty as well; perhaps in the next election cycle. This is why we see McCain campaigning on this issue so much -- a need to consolidate his questionable evangelical support.

For those asking why Obama has a 52% unfavorable r...

2008-06-26T13:49:00.000-04:00

For those asking why Obama has a 52% unfavorable rating among Republicans, here is my reason: He took a stance in the Illinois legislature that was pro-Live Birth Abortion, and blocked the bill to disallow this practice from even being voted on in his committee. This practice is where a late term baby survives the abortion process and is alive at the time of birth. The law (now in place in Illinois after Obama left and relinquished his health and human services committee chairmanship) basically says hospitals must do what they can to keep these babies alive. The prior practice was to shelve these babies in a dark room and allow them to cry themselves to death after a 2 to 3 day period at times, it was grotesque and I could never vote for him for that reason.

anon :41...While I may agree with you about FISA o...

2008-06-26T13:04:00.000-04:00

anon :41...

While I may agree with you about FISA over on DKos, here at 538 I have to say that maybe 4% of democrats (that is, under 2% of voters) know and care about this issue, and that the average shift even among us is probably only 1 scale point, not 2 or 3 as yours. So 54/27/9/9 or something is about the worst case for Obama after this folds into the polls.

Nate, any chance of a post about Obama's numbers b...

2008-06-26T12:59:00.000-04:00

Nate, any chance of a post about Obama's numbers before/after his recent FISA declaration? There are rumblings of Obama losing his shine here, and I'm wondering if you have seen any poll data that might relate to it.

Here guys a just released poll in NJ, this clrear...

2008-06-26T12:46:00.000-04:00

Here guys a just released poll in NJ, this clrearly contradicts the recent Rasmussen poll, showing a very tight race for this senate seat.

Fairleigh Dickinson University/PublicMind
6/17-22/08; 589 RV, MoSE 4%

New Jersey
Sen: Lautenberg (D-i) 45, Zimmer (R) 28

depending on when exactly these polls were taken, ...

2008-06-26T12:41:00.000-04:00

depending on when exactly these polls were taken, you could be beginning to see in them the left's backlash against obama's repulsive change of heart regarding the FISA bill. what the right knows is that you have to keep the base no matter what, but what the left always does is throw it's base under the bus. i never supported hillary, and was excited about obama until FISA, now i am not sure i will bother to vote in november period--i am not alone. if i were to be polled today about obama, i would say "somewhat unfavorable" (however, i feel more than somewhat--the fourth amendment is not negotiable with me). i would say very unfavorable about mccain. i predict obama's in-party unfavorable ratings will increase in the next round of polls.

yeah, but if you say the mn, poll is screwy why do...

2008-06-26T12:38:00.001-04:00

yeah, but if you say the mn, poll is screwy why dont you say the same about the indiana one?. what's the difference? why dont we just say dont trust any susa poll then? i mean come on no one is ever satisfied.

Anon @ 9:47: "Can someone tell me why Obama has 52...

2008-06-26T12:38:00.000-04:00

Anon @ 9:47: "Can someone tell me why Obama has 52% very unfavorable on the g.o.p. side? That just seems like a massive number and I don't see what's provoking more than a "not my cup of tea" shrug in so many."

The Republican media - Rush, Fox News, et al - are really, really good at hammering home a consistent set of "talking points" on issues to their base, and the message that they're hammering home on Obama is that he's "far left" with "socialist" ideas. A frequent cite is the National Journal ranking of Senators, where Obama was ranked the most liberal Senator in 2007 (more liberal than actual socialist Bernie Sanders, for example).

Fortunately for Obama, Republicans now make up only about 30% of the electorate, so the 50% of Republicans who appear to have largely bought into this only amounts to 15% of the total electorate.

What is really needed right now are some SurveyUSA...

2008-06-26T12:32:00.000-04:00

What is really needed right now are some SurveyUSA polls in PA, OH and FL. If they reinforce what Quinnipiac showed last week, I would expect to see the first signs of panic in the GOP camp. Indeed McCain's response today to the Supreme Court ruling in which he uses it to make a pathetic partisan attack on Obama (even though Obama has not responded to the ruling yet) suggests he is already getting a little desperate and unpresidential in his mutterings.

Obama is set for a couple of days of good coverage with the joint appearances with Hillary today and tomorrow. We may be 4 months out but this is a critical stage of the campaign. If Obama can establish a lead of more than 5 points across the respectable pollsters, it is going to be hard to overcome barring a Charlie Black wet dream involving a terrorist attack on US soil.

""Can someone tell me why Obama has 52% very unfav...

2008-06-26T12:27:00.000-04:00

""Can someone tell me why Obama has 52% very unfavorable on the g.o.p. side? That just seems like a massive number and I don't see what's provoking more than a "not my cup of tea" shrug in so many.""

The utter garbage that circulates in intra-GOP e-mails, presumably.

""And it's great data for Nate. The 538 projection...

2008-06-26T12:25:00.000-04:00

""And it's great data for Nate. The 538 projections for CO and MI are each only 1/2 point different from the new Quinnipiac polls. The WI gap is a bit larger at 4.3 points, but only the 17 point Obama lead in MN was unexpected by the 538 model, which had Obama's lead there at 11.""

Plus, the error is actually an underestimation of Obama's performance, the opposite of what Nate is generally accused of.