Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?

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2009-10-09T08:40:28.520-04:00

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2009-08-25T09:58:26.524-04:00

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一般而言，專利係採屬地主義，申請人雖已向外國申請，倘欲在我國受到專利保護，仍應向我國申請。申請人並應...

2009-08-16T23:55:46.438-04:00

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2009-01-16T03:16:00.000-05:00

Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "B...

2009-01-13T13:33:00.000-05:00

Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "Bushbots" nor Bush (and especially not Jean Schmidt. She only won because of that idiot independent who stole half of Wulsin's vote.)

35% of Wulsin's funding came from out of state, compared to Schmidt's 11%. Sorry, I live in SE Ohio as well - people here love their Bushbots. The crankier, nastier, and more politically divisive, the better.

Can't always blame losses on Independent candidates.

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@JMNorris: I'm afraid have more confidence than yo...

2009-01-13T08:01:00.000-05:00

@JMNorris: I'm afraid have more confidence than you in the Republicans proficiency in outrageously spin and the public's ability to fall for.

Obama is the most Teflon candidate ever. I thought Bill Clinton couldn't be beat in the non-stick department, but Obama is like Neo at the end of The Matrix, he blocks every punch, kick and throw.

Republicans are still trying to use the 2000, 2004 playbook on Dems, and it has lost power. They spin and lie, bait gays, bait race, bait deficits, bait high taxes and big government, bait terror attacks, and none of the bait is catching any voter-fish.

The old magic is gone, and the proof is in the retirement of the old Republican front-line. The tide is out because the proof is in the pudding. The majority think the war was a mistake, the tax cuts were a mistake, deregulation was a mistake, the economy is in the tank and corruption reigns in politics, and the majority pin it on the Republican failed, simplistic philosophy of tax cuts and free markets being inherently good.

The aphorism is "You can't argue with success," its opposite would be "You can't argue with failure."

A Democratic 51-seat majority can't override a Republican Presidential veto, people know that. They blame the current situation, in Washington and on Wall Street, on Republicans.

I don't underestimate their ability or propensity to lie, I just see no evidence of people buying it anywhere near the level they would need to win an election. The Republicans are like McCain and Palin, old school lies and deception that appeal to 35% of the electorate and make the other 65% laugh. You can't argue with failure, and they have been unquestionably in charge of the ship of state and run it aground. Platitudes and lies won't fly in the face of failure.

And I think the penetration of Internet and cable news will continue this trend.

Kasich?Would the 'he's a Serb' label hurt him in O...

2009-01-13T05:24:00.000-05:00

Kasich?

Would the 'he's a Serb' label hurt him in Ohio, along with some Blago references to tie them together (even if there is no tie)?

Had a much longer comment, but it apparently didn'...

2009-01-12T23:39:00.000-05:00

Had a much longer comment, but it apparently didn't go through. Oh well.

Suffice to say, the conversation above is far too focused on Portman, and not focused enough on a few other potentially credible GOP candidates, including former Senator Mike DeWine and former House Budget Chairman John Kasich (plus perhaps former OH AG Betty Montgomery). On the Dem side of the ledger, I doubt any one candidate would be able to clear the field, assuming Gov. Strickland stays with his current job.

More than that, I'd strongly caution against applying a 2006 or 2008 metric to this 2010 race. Aside from Voinivich, Ohioans are under one party rule starting Jan. 20 from the state legislature all the way to the President, and to the extent things are going badly in the state it is a huge mistake to assume that voters will continue to blame Republicans rather than Democrats for that state of affairs.

Portman is more moderate than you guys and gals ar...

2009-01-12T23:32:00.000-05:00

Portman is more moderate than you guys and gals are giving credit for. Notwithstanding his stints in Bush Administration roles (OMB and USTR -- both of which I agree will act as a liability in the general election), his personality and his politics were both closer to the political center than most other House R's. That moderation is, on balance, an asset when you consider the way Ohioans tend to vote.

I do think the field is much larger than just Portman, however. Former Senator Mike DeWine may very well be in the mix (and still has a strong following in many parts of the state despite his loss in '06), John Kasich may forgo the Governor's race and run for Senate instead, Blackwell may run if (when?) he loses the RNC Chair race, and there's also some possibility one of Ohio's House GOPers may decide to run, knowing that the Dems will redistrict him/her out of a seat after the 2010 census (recall that OH will be losing 2 seats in almost any scenario, and that Dems currently control enough statewide offices to control the redistricting process). Former OH AG Betty Montgomery was always popular and lost in a stunner in '06 -- so she may also be someone to watch. Of all of these candidates, most would certainly go down in flames -- but a few would put up a very credible run (DeWine, Kasich, and one or two of the House members).

Looking at the Dem side of the ledger, I've heard for quite some time that Rep. Ryan has higher aspirations and expect him to run. Capri Cafaro just ascended to the State Senate Majority Leader's post, so I wonder whether she'd be content to stay put, clearing the way for Sawyer to return to Congress, or for someone else with a strong union backing to take Ryan's seat.

Whatever the calculus, I'd caution against applying a 2006 or 2008 metric to this 2010 race. The in party and governing structure in OH will have fully turned over by the time voters decide in 2010, and the current anti-Bush sentiment will have waned considerably. Any anger in voters' minds in OH may well be directed more squarely on the Dem. Governor, the Democratically-controlled state legislature, the Dem POTUS, and Dem Congress.

"[Portman will] know how to hire a staff and how t...

2009-01-12T23:16:00.000-05:00

"[Portman will] know how to hire a staff and how to run a campaign."???

Why do you say this? He's never run a real race - ever. Not once, as you point out.

Interesting quote from a Republicans in CNN's arti...

2009-01-12T23:02:00.000-05:00

Interesting quote from a Republicans in CNN's article about Voinovich's upcoming retirement and the position this puts the GOP in with defense of seats:

". . . John Feehery, a Republican strategist and CNN contributor, said the GOP shouldn't panic just yet, especially considering Democrats control all three branches of government and the economy shows little signs of recovering in the near future."

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/12/senate.republicans

Perhaps it is because of where I live (Northern KY...

2009-01-12T22:21:00.000-05:00

Perhaps it is because of where I live (Northern KY, outside of Cincinnati) or the fact that I grew up in Portman's Congressional district, seeing him at local events, but I would say that while Ohio went blue for Obama, I have a harder time seeing it go blue for a senate seat. Portman has always been well liked by those around home so I would guess that as you go further up the state is where his issues will be when it comes to finding votes.

Berkeley Bear,I should point out to you that altho...

2009-01-12T21:44:00.000-05:00

Berkeley Bear,

I should point out to you that although I'm now living in Maryland (and have done so for more than 35 years), I grew up in NE Indiana and still have dozens of relatives in the state with whom I communicate with very often. I am very aware of the politics in the state, the history of race in politics, and the KKK (and its sympathizers) in southern Indiana and in other parts of the state (American Knights of the Ku Klux Klan and Jeff Berry in Butler, for instance), and some of the historic effects of that influence on state politics.

And you must remember that the environment of the 2004 election in Indiana, and the history of the elections in Indiana leading up to that election, were a lot different than the environment of the 2010 election in any other state, including Ohio.

In other words, anything about the 2004 Indiana Gubernatorial election would be extremely difficult to translate to any other state in 2010. Your reasoning of Daniels' state tour could be similar to Janet Reno's 'Little Red Truck' tour of Florida - how did that work out for her election run?

Mike in Md,Having spent 2 years in Bloomington, an...

2009-01-12T21:14:00.000-05:00

Mike in Md,

Having spent 2 years in Bloomington, and 8 in Indy, I'm pretty clear on how the political map of the state works. The reason Lake County/Indy (and that's only metro Indy) doesn't translate state wide is largely socio-economic as you probably know. Specifically, while southern Indiana will vote for white, culturally conservative down-state dems (like Bayh and then O'Bannon, who won the last 3 elsections for Gov before Daniels) don't vote for what they perceive as "urban" candidates. Basically, the same BS that made Reid think any African American from Chicago was "unelectable."

Yes, O'Bannon's untimely death hurt, but it also hurt that 16 years of Dem governors had created enough resentment of them as the party of power to make it easy for Mitch to run as a counterpoint. My only real point was that Mitch's free time allowed him to essentially to make himself ubiquitous in a way Kernan or any Dem really couldn't, even though he's a terrible speaker, had no real policy arguments and spoke mainly in platitudes about running the state like a business. BTW, anyone who does that after the privatization debacles of the last decade should be tossed in the rubber room.

And, once in, getting someone out is brutal - even as Daniels and the state have gone to heck, and Obama took the state, Daniels easily won reelection.

Whitley

If Burris keeps his original pledge, we won't need to work at it. When he doesn't though, yes, I will be supporting the effort to toss him on his keister.

Don't forget that Hamilton County went Democratic ...

2009-01-12T19:59:00.000-05:00

Don't forget that Hamilton County went Democratic in the last election - and the first district replaced an incumbent Rep with a Dem. Jean Schmidt remains my Congresswoman (shudder) in the 2nd district in part because the Dems haven't found anyone decent to run against her. So Portman can't necessarily count on that much support from (formerly very conservative) Cincinnati....

I might have voted for GV. The chances of the Reps finding another moderate seem to be slim to none.

Does anyone from Minnesota have a take on these ju...

2009-01-12T19:14:00.000-05:00

Does anyone from Minnesota have a take on these judges? I hope they are as fair and thorough as the canvassing board.

Also, here's to moderation!

If Tim Ryan runs- He will have the nomination lock...

2009-01-12T19:05:00.000-05:00

If Tim Ryan runs- He will have the nomination locked up. He gets endorsed by Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown. For Ryan's old US House Seat- expect Capri Cafaro and Tom Sawyer to run for Ryan's old seat.

@livemildEcho sentiment on civility. Moderation is...

2009-01-12T19:02:00.000-05:00

@livemild

Echo sentiment on civility. Moderation is a little more restricting than I'd prefer but it sure is nice to not endure tantrums from pshycos anymore. Let us not ever speak (er,...type) of the troll again.

I am bothered by the Burris thing on several levels. 1). he accepted. Which tells me he is more opportunistic than altruistic. 2). they played the race card as though there were some affirmative action clause for being in the Senate. That works fine in the workplace (before anyone starts thinking I am racist, YES I think there should be equal representation in the Senate; just not like this). 3).It seemed to me Burris spent more time trying to convince himself as much as us that he was qualified for the spot. I would have much rather had Davis but he did the honorable thing and declined. Now we are deprived of having someone more qualified because of Gov. F-bomb's taint. 4). This is the only way that Burris would EVER be in the Senate.

I'm sure he won't do a lot of damage but it just ticks me off how Blago slapped us all in the face.

Judges named to hear Coleman suit

2009-01-12T18:44:00.000-05:00

Judges named to hear Coleman suit

I also forgot to add that I don't think Portman wo...

2009-01-12T18:33:00.000-05:00

I also forgot to add that I don't think Portman would do all that well (Ohio seems to prefer moderate candidates, and currently we're blaming Bush for the economy--I don't think that will change any time soon) and from skimming some of the other comments regarding Ken Blackwell, I'd like to point out that to me, 2004 (which was 4 years ago with a bad secretary of state) wasn't a fair election and a large number of people were disenfranchised. In case anyone missed it, Ohio went pretty strongly for Obama in 2008 with a secretary of state who made sure the election was fair.

King,Absolutely correct. The political world can c...

2009-01-12T18:32:00.000-05:00

King,

Absolutely correct. The political world can change in a day, and two years is beyond our capacity to project.

That said, if the Dems manage the next two years wisely and avoid any major scandals, I see no reason why Ryan will not be able to win. It is true that Ohio's voting record is swingish, but the current trend is pushing increasingly toward liberal moderates and away from conservatism. A successful next two years could be the motive force behind Ohio's shift farther in that direction.

Much of this rides on Obama's performance. Imagining two extremes, one good (Bin-Laden captured, End of War in Iraq, recession ended, employment market improves, social program successfully implemented, civil rights legislation passed, environmental policies demonstratively improve conditions, etc) one bad (Depression, neverending war, social and environmental policies stalled in Congress) I can see one of two possible outcomes, the former looking like Camelot and the latter looking like the Chicago convention on 1968.

"From the state that brought you Ken Blackwell, Se...

2009-01-12T18:27:00.000-05:00

"From the state that brought you Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State?

Please. People in Ohio love Bushbots."

Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "Bushbots" nor Bush (and especially not Jean Schmidt. She only won because of that idiot independent who stole half of Wulsin's vote.)

If I have summer 2010 open, I will work for the campaign against Portman for sure.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?

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Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "B...

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"From the state that brought you Ken Blackwell, Se...

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