Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: South Dakota Projection: Obama by 5

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Barack Obama didn't perform well in OklahomaDepend...

2008-06-03T16:46:00.000-04:00

Barack Obama didn't perform well in Oklahoma

Depends on your standard. Even though Obama lost by a large margin, it was one of the states where he outpolled his late polling aggregate (as reported at Pollster.com) by the greatest margin.

Graph here.

Love this site and the analysis. What should we l...

2008-06-03T16:39:00.000-04:00

Love this site and the analysis. What should we look for tonight when the returns start coming in from South Dakota? Any counties that are expected to be particularly strong for either Obama or Clinton. Thanks!

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The analysis bothered me earlier when I read it, a...

2008-06-03T13:50:00.000-04:00

The analysis bothered me earlier when I read it, and I think I've managed to put my finger on why.

Reading it over, it felt at times like you kept on adjusting the model until it gave you the result you were looking for. If you are deciding whether to include new interaction variables or how to incorporate a time variable into your model, shouldn't you be testing the model entirely on states that have already voted, and only look at the effect of that model on South Dakota AFTER you've finalized the model?

THe Drudge Report thing and the ARG poll are great...

2008-06-03T13:26:00.000-04:00

THe Drudge Report thing and the ARG poll are great for Obama- lowering exspectations, raising the expectations for Clinton.
If she does not win MT by 10 and SD by 30 or 40%, media could spin it as a loss again- and a loss it is because I think the only thing how she could impress the SD´s is by holding Obama beyond the 15% threshold.
And that won´t happen, of course.

Great analysis. I'm in S.D., and I think there are...

2008-06-03T12:28:00.000-04:00

Great analysis. I'm in S.D., and I think there are a couple of factors worth noting:

1. Daschle's influence cannot be overstated among South Dakota Democrats.

2. The endorsements of Daschle, Johnson, and Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin will carry a lot of weight in Native American communities.

3. Been impressed with Obama's GOTV and other organizing efforts? Steve Hildebrand is one of the key people behind those efforts nationwide. Where's Hildebrand from? South Dakota. Hildebrand and Daschle know how to deliver this state.

It'll be relatively close, but those are important factors that should tip the balance to Obama.

hope your right nate...per drudge: "HILLARY CAMPAI...

2008-06-03T11:14:00.001-04:00

hope your right nate...per drudge: "HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... DEVELOPING..."

hope your right nate...per drudge: "HILLARY CAMPAI...

2008-06-03T11:14:00.000-04:00

hope your right nate...per drudge: "HILLARY CAMPAIGN EXPECTS 25-POINT WIN IN S DAKOTA, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE... DEVELOPING..."

Intrade markets now have Clinton winning SD. I do...

2008-06-03T10:39:00.000-04:00

Intrade markets now have Clinton winning SD. I don't know if that is mainly because of the ARG poll or what. However, the intrade market is still pretty close, suggesting a small Clinton win. Hence, we have three predictions: Nate says small Obama win, Intrade suggests small Clinton win, ARG says big Clinton win.

Excellent, thorough, informed, persuasive analysis...

2008-06-03T09:59:00.000-04:00

Excellent, thorough, informed, persuasive analysis. Thank you for taking the time to "get" South Dakota, and not just ignorantly compare us to Appalachia, as too many pollsters and "analysts" have tended to do.

Well done, and thanks.

Look at "other" in Arizona, which is mostly native...

2008-06-03T03:53:00.000-04:00

Look at "other" in Arizona, which is mostly native. Clinton wins by a similar margin to Arizona as a whole. In Oklahoma and New Mexico if you assume Obama won African Americans by his usual numbers, and Clinton, Hispanics by her usual margin, Clinton would have had to win "other" in Oklahoma, though not necessarily in New Mexico. On the other hand, Obama did well in Alaska, which is 17% native.

The other thing is I would argue against treating Native Americans as a monolithic voting block - particularly with respect to Alaskan Inuit and prairie natives.

Perhaps you already know this Nate, but the offici...

2008-06-03T03:51:00.000-04:00

Perhaps you already know this Nate, but the official count of eligible voters is 195,063 and the Secretary of State predicts 45% turnout which would be 87,778 voters so I hope your 130,915 projection is more accurate (to help counter the inane popular vote mantra from Hillary).

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2008/05/30/news/latest_news/5f3945ddb8ba797586257459006c4856.txt

One of the reasons the ARG could be off by such a ...

2008-06-03T02:31:00.000-04:00

One of the reasons the ARG could be off by such a huge margin is because of the big early voting in South Dakota. ARG and other pollsters have had a really tough time pegging turnout in early voting. That's why the North Carolina polling numbers were so screwy.

And let's not forget that ARG was off by 22 points in Iowa, 13 points in Oregon, and 26 points in South Carolina. I don't think they "get" the Midwest. And they had a really phony obviously fabricated swing in Wisconsin. They obviously just looked at the other pollsters and said, "oh sh*t, we have to change our numbers to match theirs!"

Let's also NOT FORGET that Obama won rural Oregon, rural Utah, and rural Wisconsin in the primaries there. This will all come down to Rapid City and Sioux Falls I think.

One more thing: Obama didn't campaign heavily in his strongholds of Sioux Falls and Brookings in the final push. He campaigned in places like Aberdeen and Mitchell which leads me to believe their internals are solid for a win in South Dakota. But it's anyone's guess at this point I suppose.

I actually don't mind if Clinton takes SD and Obama takes MT because that's only fair in such a closely fought primary. But if for no other reason I want Obama to win SD just so we can email ARG and ask them to please stop polling because they are obviously fraudsters.

Per anecdotal information on Daily Kos, Clinton ca...

2008-06-03T01:21:00.000-04:00

Per anecdotal information on Daily Kos, Clinton campaigned heavily among Native American populations, and it's also possible that Obama's adoption by the Crow could alienate the larger Lakota Sioux population, due to animosity between the two tribes. However, Obama benefits among the Lakota from the endorsement of Olympic champion runner (and Republican!) Billy Mills.

Excellent work as always. Quick editing note:"Alth...

2008-06-03T01:02:00.000-04:00

Excellent work as always. Quick editing note:

"Although South Dakota might quite be Clinton's kind of white, it still is very white." - I think you meant "might NOT quite be" here.

Poblano: I wonder if SD's electorate shares any si...

2008-06-03T00:28:00.000-04:00

Poblano: I wonder if SD's electorate shares any similarities with Nebraska's, and if so, if the Nebraska non-binding primary on May 13 offers any clues? Obama won it by 2 points, 49-47 (with Mike Gravel taking a significant 4%).

Nebraska Secretary of State site

Omaha World-Herald

from the Omaha World-Herald article:
"While Obama had won 61 of Nebraska's 93 counties in the caucuses, Clinton carried most counties Tuesday, winning 63. Nearly all the counties where results flipped were in rural parts of the state."

I was curious about Montana, too. The local papers...

2008-06-03T00:12:00.000-04:00

I was curious about Montana, too. The local papers are predicting an unprecedented turnout. 80,000 have already voted. That's insane. The whole state has less than a million people.