Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: 538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-August

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2009-10-08T05:50:24.614-04:00

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2009-09-13T22:56:28.364-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:59:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:46:00.000-05:00

August seems to be a tough month for Democrats. Th...

2008-08-17T03:04:00.000-04:00

August seems to be a tough month for Democrats. They go windsurfing, or to Hawaii, while the Republicans eat them for lunch. Oh well. Kismet, I guess.

a

2008-08-16T23:15:00.001-04:00

Sean citing his own post does not make his estimat...

2008-08-16T23:15:00.000-04:00

Sean citing his own post does not make his estimate of Obama's field advantage any more valid. That was based on his private source citing an Obama call blitz in one state (Ohio) on one day (Monday) against the McCain campaign's official tally of national voter contacts over one week.

Which is not to disagree that there is a disparity, but Sean makes it appear that the Republican GOTV operation is non-existent.

TJB,The PPP poll in Ohio had more than twice the s...

2008-08-16T20:03:00.000-04:00

TJB,

The PPP poll in Ohio had more than twice the sample-space as the Rasmussen poll, and they're only 2 days apart, so that accounts for the difference in weighting.

And if you look at the Pollster ratings, PPP is rated at +1.86, CBS at +2.64. So there's that.

You are giving a DEMOCRAT sponsored poll (PPP) 1 a...

2008-08-16T19:52:00.002-04:00

You are giving a DEMOCRAT sponsored poll (PPP) 1 and a half times as much strength as a more recent Rasmussen poll in Ohio.

You also are giving PPP more weight than a CBS/Rocky Mt News Poll in Colorado.

I can understand you are admittedly pro-Obama but in this case, your bias is skewing the electoral vote projection.

porridge,No issue is a deal-breaker in any state, ...

2008-08-16T19:52:00.001-04:00

porridge,

No issue is a deal-breaker in any state, especially any issue just breaking in mid-August.

Besides, American elections simply aren't decided on the issues. There is a strong tradition, dating back to Jackson at least, of personality-based voting that is not going to be reversed any time soon. What that translates to today is a competition between the candidates to see who can lie the most effectively about the other's character.

For the most recent cycle, the decision goes to McCain. We'll see how things progress...

Sorry to have offended you, wingfoot. But if Sean ...

2008-08-16T19:52:00.000-04:00

Sorry to have offended you, wingfoot. But if Sean doesn't want us to play with words, he's got to stop tempting us by coining delcious tidbits like "McGain" to indicate GOP improvements in the polls.

Ogre,The Hays poll is not included in the projecti...

2008-08-16T19:49:00.000-04:00

Ogre,

The Hays poll is not included in the projections because it was payed for by a pro-Obama union, and so is possibly and probably biased. I still think that Obama is closer in AK than other polls give him credit, just a feeling, but we need an unbiased poll in AK for that. And for God's sake can we please have a poll in Indiana!

McFilistro. I'm (not) loving it.

2008-08-16T19:45:00.000-04:00

McFilistro. I'm (not) loving it.

a little childish all this name-calling. and after...

2008-08-16T19:44:00.000-04:00

a little childish all this name-calling. and after such a fine and erudite post by mr nines. pshaw.

Colorado to McCain: Hands Off Our Waterhttp://www....

2008-08-16T19:30:00.000-04:00

Colorado to McCain: Hands Off Our Water

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/16/16825/8416/570/568960

Could this be a potential deal-breaker, like DHL in Ohio?

AK shows a net +0.4 despite the Hays polling that ...

2008-08-16T19:22:00.001-04:00

AK shows a net +0.4 despite the Hays polling that came out a couple days ago showing AK at O45/M40?

Did I miss something significant?

Thanks Smitty, I appreciate the help.

2008-08-16T19:22:00.000-04:00

Thanks Smitty, I appreciate the help.

The key in GOTV as Bush proved in 2004 is how good...

2008-08-16T19:09:00.000-04:00

The key in GOTV as Bush proved in 2004 is how good the micro-targeting lists are. This requires a LOT of local outreach.

Basically in Colorado the Obama campaign strategy is to develop a micro-targeted list of every Democratic voter in the state and all the Independents who express an interest in voting for Obama.

They are following up at intervals to make sure the voters have information, that Obama volunteers are grabbed wherever possible and that every identified Obama supporter gets all information about early voting, etc. (Colorado allows you to sign up to receive a mail-in ballot sometime in the middle of October).

So, an efficient ground game here can start banking votes 3 weeks before the election. That's clearly the strategy going in -- to keep refining the lists and make sure that they have adequate follow up to get every potential supporter to the polls, or get them registered and make sure they get absentee ballots, etc.

From my personal experience here they are pretty good at this so far. But, I don't know exactly what sorts of out-reach the McCain camp is doing from their 1 field office.

They have plenty of ads on the air, but turning our your supporters on election day will be key. Obama will have a massive turnout effort here. We'll see how McCain does.

Sean, the latest CO poll shows the "base" gap mani...

2008-08-16T19:04:00.000-04:00

Sean, the latest CO poll shows the "base" gap manifesting itself in the 45+ Dems.

Is there a way to quantify the base gap by state and in total here to track it post Denver?

Pew had at least a 5% gap in their latest poll and others have had it 6-9.

If the nomination of Hillary and hoopla doesn't close the gap post Denver that seems to me like the killer issue.

Though I do like "McCrumble," too. Or how about "M...

2008-08-16T18:59:00.000-04:00

Though I do like "McCrumble," too. Or how about "McCave"?

BTW, can anybody tell me how to remove an accidental double post? Others seem able to remove posts, but I can't figure out how they do it.

Antonym of "McGain"... "Omentum!"

2008-08-16T18:55:00.000-04:00

Antonym of "McGain"... "Omentum!"

As long as you come up with an equally catchy name...

2008-08-16T18:09:00.000-04:00

As long as you come up with an equally catchy name for the reverse, Obamabounce?
McCrumble?

Personally, I didn't know McCain admitted to having cheated on his wife until recently. I swear one party considers that a seriously critical issue.