Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: SurveyUSA: Palin's Speech Comparable to Obama's

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2009-10-08T04:39:45.567-04:00

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2009-02-09T01:03:00.000-05:00

What I don't get is that if the Democrats have suc...

2008-09-06T11:49:00.000-04:00

What I don't get is that if the Democrats have such a party ID advantage, and the approval/disapproval split along party lines, with independents ranking both Obama and Palin pretty much the same, how do they come out with the same average score?

I don't think these grades mean a whole lot for ei...

2008-09-05T00:12:00.000-04:00

I don't think these grades mean a whole lot for either Obama or Palin unless someone can show us an example of a speech that was graded poorly.

I suspect there's a strong tendency to simply give a good grade to anything that's delivered with a smile, is halfway interesting, and doesn't contain any obvious verbal flubs.

For anyone who's been a teacher or a student, it's similar to the ceiling effects you get on course evaluations.

I agree with Daniel Nexon and "kingfish". The sur...

2008-09-04T22:52:00.000-04:00

I agree with Daniel Nexon and "kingfish". The survey does not tell us much.

I too believe she is an asset to McCain and the Repubs, but I was moved to donate to Obama because of her divisive lying rhetoric.

A couple of other observations about the polls:

There were 3% more Repubs than dems in the entire sample (36% to 33%). Independents accounted for 26%. However if you look at the #'s for those who heard the speech, it is 40%-29%-27%, R-D-I.

The data presented for the questions represents the answers of the entire sample. Both the people who heard the speech and those who didn't. A full 25% in the sample did not hear the speech.

Given all of this, I do not know how anybody can draw any reasonable conclusions on if people are more or less likely to vote for McCain/Palin based on the speech.

What criteria exactly were used in this grading sc...

2008-09-04T22:11:00.000-04:00

What criteria exactly were used in this grading scheme? My guess is that many people graded on a curve, calibrated to what they expected (not much).

I really don’t get it. Maybe bc I have been living...

2008-09-04T22:01:00.000-04:00

I really don’t get it. Maybe bc I have been living overseas for the past eight years and America has just changed that much. Or maybe my politics has moved a lot further left than I ever imagined. Or both.

I watched Sarah Palins speech twice. First I watched it and I found it white trash, crass and 100% void of substance. I sms’ed my friend in the states and they said it was “great”. I thought I had down loaded the wrong speech, so I trudged ahead, found a different version and watched it again.

This time it really pissed me off. I was so different than Obama’s speech. I felt good after his speech even though I did not agree with all of it. With Palins speech I felt almost dirty. She is a terrible speaker who simply played the false divide between rural and urban America. I am from a town with 1000 people and I did not relate to any of it. I don’t hate people that live in cities and I am damn well sure I don’t think they are less American. And to suggest that Democrats are not moral or patriotic was foolish. Obama was right in his speech. He said, “Patriotism has not party…” Why the hell did the Republicans or the press not get this message.

I am so disappointed in American’s for the positive view they give this speech and this person. She was degrading, crass, belittling and above all she represented the fox news, inaccurate, crap ass politics that we should be moving away from. I am also disappointed for the press not putting speech through the ringer. Its almost like the expected her to fail so badly that when she did an half ass job they were like the Messiah had come. Shame on the press, shame on America. If that is the type of politics and slander that Americans really believe, it blows my mind. Hopefully….HOPEFULLY…America is bigger and better than this.

I cannot believe I once considered myself a quasi republican. I am ashamed.

This survey don't tell us much. ``Did Sarah Palin'...

2008-09-04T21:56:00.001-04:00

This survey don't tell us much. ``Did Sarah Palin's speech make you more or less likely to vote for John McCain?'' is the relevant question. I could give an A+ to a jumping seal act but that don't mean a jumping seal should be president.

Similarwise with the asset/liability question. ``Does Joe Biden/Sarah Palin make you more or less likely to vote for Obama/McCain?'' Is what gives you useful information.

I am not sure why so many people think she gave a ...

2008-09-04T21:56:00.000-04:00

I am not sure why so many people think she gave a great speech. I would give it a C at best.

I am a Republican and strongly support McCain's campaign; additionally, I am very socially conservative, and see most issues like Palin.

That said, she looked amateurish, like she had no right to be on stage, like she was just saying what McCain's people told her to.

That said, the things she said were good, even if her presence was poor, and I am not sure her inexperience is much worse than Obama's; she's just not a great speaker.

I guess, however, the Republicans are in luck; maybe this will reverse Obama's convention bounce which was looking pretty deadly.

This long comment starts with a note about the spe...

2008-09-04T21:38:00.000-04:00

This long comment starts with a note about the speech comparison, but is mostly about a comparison of qualifications taking off from the line that a mayor has responsibilities but a community organizer does not. It combines material gathered around the net over a couple of days, along with my own observations. I apologize to those who see their own thoughts but are not credited explicitly. In particular much of the comparison list originated in the work of SanteFeMarie at Kos, who deserves credit. A brother added the Giuliani lines. I have been advised that the material is helpful. Here you go:

The nation is under attack, just as Rudy Giuliani said at the Republican convention.

The United States of America is under attack by the Republican party.

Sarah Palin joined the attacking force Wednesday night. Mrs. Palin had one chance last night to introduce herself to the nation and the world. She chose to do it with a vicious speech, a “speech to nowhere” as one person noted. Compare her speech to Obama’s debut on the world stage in 2004 – a speech which is most remembered for his line that we are not a red America or a blue America but the United States of America capable of being and doing more, together.

Palin featured a high nastiness level. Palin read the speech competently, but mostly she looked like she enjoyed every second of delivering the zingers and was even amused when she knew she was blatantly lying. The speech wasn't meant to inspire but to divide — it was not about our better selves or what we might be able to accomplish as a nation — it was all about rage, sarcasm, resentment, mockery, and disdain for the poor. The use of “community organizer” as some kind of character flaw, both in her speech and throughout the night, is a rhetorical tactic designed to conjure images of poor black people making trouble.

Palin’s speech will, in fact, be most remembered for the line that “being mayor is kind of like being a community organizer, but with actual responsibilities.”

So let’s make a few comparisons between Obama and Palin, remembering he is running against McCain, but taking on the notion that she is actually more qualified than he.

Qualification Comparison (from various sources)

1980 - 1984
Obama: B.A. in political science with a specialization in international relations from Columbia University.

Palin: Wasilla High School, captain of the state-champion basketball team. Miss Wasilla, competed in the Miss Alaska pageant.

1985 - 1990
Obama: after graduating from Columbia, moved to Chicago; became a community organizer as director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization on Chicago's far South Side. This was time period when the local steel plants had been closed or off-shored, and the neighborhood was in dire need. During his three years as the DCP's director, its staff grew from 1 to 13 and its annual budget grew from $70,000 to $400,000, with accomplishments including helping set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants' rights organization.

Obama moved to Boston to attend Harvard Law School. Selected as an editor and then elected the first black President of the Harvard Law Review, a full-time volunteer position functioning as editor-in-chief and supervising the law review's staff of 80 editors.

Palin: Bachelor of Science degree in communications-journalism, with a minor in political science from the University of Idaho after transfer from North Idaho (Junior) College, with 3 other colleges thrown in. Brief stint as a sports reporter for local Anchorage television stations; left to join her husband in commercial fishing business.

1991 - 1995
Obama: graduated magna cum laude from Harvard Law School; received contract and advance to write a book ("Dreams from my Father") as well as a fellowship at the University of Chicago Law School. Directed the Illinois Project Vote from April to October 1992, a voter registration drive with a staff of 10 and 700 volunteers that achieved its goal of registering 150,000 of 400,000 unregistered African Americans in the state, leading Crain's Chicago Business to name Obama to its 1993 list of "40 under Forty" powers to be.

Appointed as a Lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Chicago. Joined Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland, a 12-attorney law firm specializing in civil rights litigation and neighborhood economic development. Active in several community organizations, usually as a board member.

Palin: flirted with the Alasaka Independence Party which advocates "Alaska First" and state secession from the U.S. (Husband Todd was a member till 2002.) Elected to Wasilla city council.

1996 - 2000
Obama: promoted to Senior Lecturer in constitutional law at the University of Chicago Law School. Turns down offer of tenure. Elected to the Illinois Senate from District 13, a Chicago area district with a population in 2006 of 780,000 (compared to total state population in Alaska of 670,000 in 2008). Served in State Senate from 1997 to 2004. Sponsored more than 800 bills. In 2000, lost a Democratic primary run for the U.S. House of Representatives to four-term incumbent Bobby Rush by a margin of two to one.

Palin: elected as mayor of Wasilla (population then 5,470 when elected), defeating her opponent 616 votes to 413. The post is part-time.

Town budget when she starts about $5 million, when she leaves office about $8 million (a 60% growth in city expenditures). Wasilla has approximately 50 employees including a town administrator who handles city administration. Reduced property taxes but increased sales taxes. Fired the Wasilla police chief, citing a failure to support her administration. (He then sued Palin on the grounds that he was fired because he supported the campaign of Palin's opponent, but his suit was dismissed when the judge ruled that Palin had the right, under state law, to fire city employees even for political reasons.) Fires all city management people at one point as a “test of loyalty to her.”

Hired a DC lobbyist to bring $27 million in earmarks to the city (but later claims she is against earmarks). Earmarks go to various projects, the biggest of which is a hockey center. (I think such earmarks are fine, but the point is now she lies about being against them.) Wasilla had zero debt when she enters office but she leaves office with the city in debt of over $22 million, including $15 million-plus for construction of the hockey center which was built on a piece of property that the city didn’t have clear title to, a matter still in litigation. Attempted to ban books from the city library and fired librarian when she refused, but later relents due to protests.

2001 - 2004
Obama: re-elected in 2002 as State Senator, and became Chairman of the Illinois Senate's Health and Human Services Committee.

Publically spoke out against the invasion of Iraq BEFORE the congressional authorization in 2002, and then again before the actual invasion in 2003.
Wrote and delivered the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.

November 2004: elected to the US Senate from Illinois, receiving over 3.5 million votes, more than 70% of total.

Palin: elected president of the Alaska Conference of Mayors. Unsuccessful bid for lieutenant governor, coming in second in a five-way race in the Republican primary, receiving 19,000 votes. Appointed to the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, served as chairman from 2003 to 2004 and also served as Ethics Supervisor. Resigned in protest over the "lack of ethics" of fellow Republican members. Exposed the state Republican Party's chairman, Randy Ruedrich, for doing party work on public time and working closely with a company he was supposed to be regulating. Director of Ted Stevens' 527 group.

2005 to present
Obama: Sworn in as the fifth-ever African-American U.S. senator. Worked with Republican Senator Lugar to author and implement a program to locate and dismantle stray Russian WMD's. Designated by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid as the party's point man on ethics. Worked with Russ Feingold to pass a major ethics/lobbying reform bill. Cosponsored, with John McCain, the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act. Called for increased fuel efficiency standards (3 percent every year for 15 years). In total a sponsor or co-sponsor of 150 bills or more (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bills_sponsored_by_Barack_Obama_in_the_United_States_Senate

It is true that Obama has not sponsored any bills to give tax breaks to the wealthy, and perhaps that is what Palin meant when she said he has not sponsored one piece of “important” legislation.

Assignments on the Senate Committees for Foreign Relations, Veterans' Affairs, and Homeland Security. Chairman of the Senate's subcommittee on European Affairs. As a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, made official trips to Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. Campaigns for 18 months to become the Democratic presidential nominee, receiving on the order of 20 million votes. Currently manages 2,500 campaign employees and a budget of $40-$50 million/month.

Palin: 2005: board member, Valley Hospital Association, which runs the Mat-Su Regional Medical Center in Wasilla.

2006: Became youngest and first female Governor of Alaska, taking office in December, 2006. Received 114,600 votes. The population of Alaska is 683,478 and more than 50% of the state budget comes from oil revenues, not taxes as in other states.

Attempted to auction the Governor's jet on eBay. Took on fellow-Republican Senator Ted Stevens regarding the federal investigation into his financial dealings. Promoted oil and natural gas resource development in Alaska. Helped pass a wind-fall tax increase on oil company profits, distributed to Alaska residents. Formed a sub-cabinet group of advisers to address climate change but does not accept that it caused in part by humans. Objected to listing polar bears as an endangered species because it might hurt oil and gas development in the bears' habitat. Was for the “bridge to nowhere” while campaigning for Governor, now pretends that she was not. Alaska kept the federal money but did not build the bridge. Supported abstinence-only education. Currently under a bipartisan investigation for abuse of power for dismissing Alaska's Public Safety Commissioner because he refused to fire her ex-brother in-law.

Obtained her first passport in 2007 to perform visits to the Alaska National Guard in Kuwait and Germany. (Foreign experience is so limited that an airplane refueling stopover in Ireland is listed on her resume as foreign travel experience.) Lives next-door to Russia.

It is easy to find facts like these if you just go to, for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Page and search Obama or Sarah Palin.

In the interest of honest debate, Geoff, try inclu...

2008-09-04T21:35:00.000-04:00

In the interest of honest debate, Geoff, try including some facts with your contempt.

Newsvine: Palin causes undecided voters to flock to Obama:
http://gbixler.newsvine.com/_news/2008/09/01/1811910-palin-causes-undecided-voters-to-flock-to-obama

God, I spend too much time on the internet.

I wouldn't argue that Palin had a polished deliver...

2008-09-04T21:23:00.000-04:00

I wouldn't argue that Palin had a polished delivery. But, let's not forget that 'reading' someone else's words on a teleprompter convincingly is different from writing your own speech because it's what you believe. You may still use a teleprompter to keep you on track, but there is a world of difference.

Palin was an actress delivering a script. Obama was a statesman delivering what he believed.

Let's see how see does when she's not scripted by the Bush handlers. I predict the only place will you ever see her is on Fox News.

To me the most galling thing in the SurveyUSA poll...

2008-09-04T21:21:00.000-04:00

To me the most galling thing in the SurveyUSA poll is the response to the last question. 54 percent think the media is rooting for Obama; only 8 percent think the media is rooting for McCain. How can such a huge majority have it so obviously backward? We haven't had a liberal media in this country at least since the Nixon days. Is it just that the Republicans have been screaming "liberal media" so loud and long that everybody just believes it, when by any objective measure the exact opposite is the case?

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/...

2008-09-04T21:10:00.000-04:00

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/20m-challenge-now-spread-the-w.php

SPREAD THE WORD. Let's ALL make a statement and raise 20 MILLION for Barack Obama before tommorow morning. Let's show that even on a so called "republican night" us democrats WILL BE HEARD.

Forget Sarah Palin...it's Lindsey Graham that has ...

2008-09-04T21:07:00.000-04:00

Forget Sarah Palin...it's Lindsey Graham that has the shrill voice.

I actually was looking at someone else's comment a...

2008-09-04T21:02:00.000-04:00

I actually was looking at someone else's comment and misnamed you as the culprit.

Like Nate, I expect to see a bounce start to regis...

2008-09-04T21:00:00.000-04:00

Like Nate, I expect to see a bounce start to register in the polls tomorrow.

But I have to ask: what moron designed this poll? The questions are ambiguous; none of them get to basic issues like "are you more/less likely to vote for Mcain/Obama?" and "if the election were held today..." In other words, we have to *guess* whether moving independents on the "asset" question is equivalent to moving them on the "voting" question.

This is basic stuff. Horse-race polls are a waste of time. Horse-race polls that don't ask questions likely to mean the same thing to different people are even more of a waste of time.

Did you guys just see that 9/11 Video. I hat the ...

2008-09-04T20:47:00.000-04:00

Did you guys just see that 9/11 Video. I hat the Republican party. They SUCK and need to change. That was ridiculous!!!

Good one on me El Cid. Nothing I like better than...

2008-09-04T20:46:00.000-04:00

Good one on me El Cid. Nothing I like better than satire -- and publicity!

James at 727 is exactly the demographic I am talki...

2008-09-04T20:44:00.001-04:00

James at 727 is exactly the demographic I am talking about. He demonstrates Palin's potency.

Imagine what she will do when she is atop the ticket?

Sarah Palin: the presumptive presidential nominee post McCain.

Easy to get an A when the curve's so steep. Let's ...

2008-09-04T20:44:00.000-04:00

Easy to get an A when the curve's so steep. Let's see when she has the real test.

My over/under is Monday for Palin to officially jump the shark and show permanent decline, along with the steady erosion of McCain's numbers. They made a BIG mistake in p*ssing off the Obama base, because even if Barack and Biden take the high road, we'll make sure people know of her corruption and craziness. And the Dems won't be complacent after this.

And McCain gets lost entirely in the shuffle. Soon to be a footnote having to defend his crazy VP....Sympathy bounce ends by 9/9 and Obama leads consistently by 3-5 from thereon in (barring any goof-ups, of course).

David, I think it says something bad about the Ame...

2008-09-04T20:41:00.000-04:00

David, I think it says something bad about the American public. Specifically, that the last 8 years of Republican rule have twisted them so much that they no longer think rationally. It's sad - it's like watching the fall of the republicans. The lunatics have won, and all the Republicans had to do was offer them bread and circuses.