Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Public Opinion Changing on Abortion?

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Inter...

2009-10-15T02:23:44.910-04:00

By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.

From cell phones users to see the specific situati...

2009-10-15T02:22:25.109-04:00

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The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china ...

2009-10-15T02:22:09.657-04:00

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2009-09-11T08:42:52.703-04:00

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kudos to this discussion for being calm and though...

2009-05-28T06:01:31.041-04:00

kudos to this discussion for being calm and thoughtful on such a divisive subject
i heard on CNN this week that on most topics, the more advanced the technology/education level, the more the population leans left. but not so on abortion, it appears that, the more advanced the technology becomes, the more we're leaning right. apparently, all those high-tech sonograms are influencing public opinion. AND that one reason why the under 25 crowd might be polling more pro-life is that they are the first generation to count among their baby pictures some taken pre-birth. as a lifelong pro-choice woman, i found this fascinating. however, i came of age when abortions were newly legal and can vividly remember when teen-age girls in california had to get their abusive parents permission to get an abortion, and i never want us to go back to those days.

also-i think hannah's a very wise woman

ConnectingTheDots: There's one other glaring flaw ...

2009-05-21T02:33:40.476-04:00

ConnectingTheDots: There's one other glaring flaw in Gallup's methodology. Their sample was split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, even though the gap in party identification is the largest it's been in decades.

Previous Gallup polls this year sampled 8% more Democrats, which still under-represents the gap, but this one was 32% Dems and 32% Reps. The skewing effect of this inexplicable sampling decision is quite obvious.

http://www.allgov.com/ViewNews/Misleading_Story_of_the_Month__Majority_of_Americans_Pro_Life_90520

Jon and Jen R., I don’t see where Hannah was sayin...

2009-05-16T14:42:00.000-04:00

Jon and Jen R., I don’t see where Hannah was saying that "oh you're inexperienced, so that means your perspective has no merit" or mentions "18 to 29-year-olds".

I read Hannah’s comment as saying that no one knows how they will act in any situation until they are actually confronting the situation. We all daydream that we would be a hero and rush into the burning building and save the fire victim, but in real life we might call 911 and wait for the fire department. No one *really* knows how they would act until they are there. At any age.

It's easy to be a self-righteous, arrogant absolut...

2009-05-16T11:36:00.000-04:00

It's easy to be a self-righteous, arrogant absolutist pro-lifer when you're a 16-yr-old virgin. When you're a 21-yr-old pregnant woman/guy with a pregnant girlfriend, on the other hand....The group in question are 18 to 29-year-olds.

Gallup’s poll is missing an important part of the ...

2009-05-16T09:54:00.000-04:00

Gallup’s poll is missing an important part of the equation: Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you’ll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (Washington Post, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) now specifically use this term.

Unlike pollsters who are up with current generational trends, Gallup is still using old school generational delineations. By lumping part of GenJones with Boomers, and part with GenX, Gallup’s generational data is seriously flawed. Several top pollsters---including Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen--- have shown that GenJones’ political behavior and voting patterns are clearly distinct from its surrounding generations.

It is important to distinguish between the post-WWII demographic boom in births vs. the cultural generations born during that era. Generations are a function of the common formative experiences of its members, not the fertility rates of its parents. Many experts now believe it breaks down this way:

DEMOGRAPHIC boom in babies: 1946-1964
Baby Boom GENERATION: 1942-1953
Generation Jones: 1954-1965
Generation X: 1966-1978

Here is a relatively recent op-ed in USA TODAY about GenJones as the new generation of leadership:
http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20090127/column27_st.art.htm

@Hannah, "Younger generations are more likely to ...

2009-05-15T19:50:00.000-04:00

@Hannah,

"Younger generations are more likely to be pro-life - because they're less likely to have had an unplanned pregnancy yet."

Interesting point, and probably very true, yet I'm not sure that gets us anywhere. Just because people have second thoughts and compromise their principles for reality-grounded reasons doesn't mean that such a gut-wrenching decision doesn't scar them for life.

Maybe it's good that younger generations are more against abortion because it increases the chances that they'll try to be responsible and not create the need for an abortion. I can understand your argument that I might compromise my principles when push comes to shove.

I'm assuming that you wouldn't call people who feel bad about abortion and who would never forgive themselves for making that decision as "self-righteous, arrogant absolutist pro-lifers".
Also what to you is self-righteous arrogance might objectively be someone trying to act from their morals. (I.E. the Christian who says god bless you to an atheist, who responds with expletives).

I always am leery of people who argue "oh you're inexperienced, so that means your perspective has no merit". You're going to have to prove your argument rather than play the experience card.

I should also mention that abortion rights are mor...

2009-05-15T18:42:00.000-04:00

I should also mention that abortion rights are more likely to face ongoing societal judgment because they have their basis in women having sex. Our society in general is very down on women having sex.

As a woman who has had an abortion and who has run...

2009-05-15T18:38:00.000-04:00

As a woman who has had an abortion and who has run a (pro-choice, non-judgmental, no pressure) abortion information website for several years, this is my take:

Younger generations are more likely to be pro-life - because they're less likely to have had an unplanned pregnancy yet.

You'd be amazed at how often people who are Totally Pro-Life reassess their beliefs on abortion when they are actually in the position of needing one. ;)

With abortion rights, experience matters. It's easy to be a self-righteous, arrogant absolutist pro-lifer when you're a 16-yr-old virgin. When you're a 21-yr-old pregnant woman/guy with a pregnant girlfriend, on the other hand....

One last comment -- has vegetarianism or support f...

2009-05-15T17:07:00.000-04:00

One last comment --
has vegetarianism or support for animal rights been increasing in Gen Y, and if so, does that demographic overlap/correlate much with the alleged increase in pro-life positions? I find it easier to make a consistent case against aborting partially developed fetuses if one also protects animals with demonstrable capacities to feel pain and fear. Conversely, if one is okay with medical research on chimpanzees capable of partially learning language, I find it hard to defend a fetus whose opinion of the world is "..."

"Marriage" is a sanctimonious union in the eyes of...

2009-05-15T14:56:00.000-04:00

"Marriage" is a sanctimonious union in the eyes of GodOnly in the views of some Christians. If you look at the anthropology, marriage is a lot broader, and a lot more down to earth -- private, contractual, inter-family business, etc.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marriage#European_marriages

I'll step up for the allegedly rare "abortion alwa...

2009-05-15T14:46:00.000-04:00

I'll step up for the allegedly rare "abortion always legal at will" contingent. A late stage fetus has a more developed brain, but I'm unconvinced that any meaningful personhood could have developed, in the absence of any shaping input or interaction with the world or other people. I view personhood as something that grows, not as a binary, and personally I would start thinking about criminal penalties around the time a child starts talking. But I can easily understand disagreement or even horror at my position, and legitimate doubts about consciousness and third trimester brains.

OTOH, I view concern for the early embryo, before it even has any neural tissue, to be anti-scientific. We don't understand the nature or mechanism of consciousness; we do know it seems entirely correlated with the behavior of the brain.

There is an increasing trend of atheists in genera...

2009-05-15T14:36:00.000-04:00

There is an increasing trend of atheists in generation Y.

There is more support for gay marriage in generation Y.

Generation Y is more liberal that older generations.

Why is generation Y more pro-life?I've posted about this before: http://www.turntheclockforward.org/2007/03/those-wacky-kids-baffle-the-new-york-times/

This has been the trend for a few years now.

It's possible because not all people who oppose abortion do so for conservative and/or religious reasons.

Well, people don't like abortion in places where t...

2009-05-15T14:15:00.000-04:00

Well, people don't like abortion in places where they need as many people as they can get, such as South Dakota, and they think abortion's fine where there's too many people, such as Brooklyn. Same on gay marriage. We might be be better off not having to eat each others' values all the time.

My 1 (+/- 1) Cents: Personally, I think the gover...

2009-05-15T10:54:00.000-04:00

My 1 (+/- 1) Cents: Personally, I think the government should enact civil unions as a government-recognized status between two people, regardless of gender. A man and a woman can have a civil union, or two people of the same gender can have one. Legally, it's all the same. Then the question of "marriage" should be left to the couple's religious beliefs and the church to which they belong. "Marriage" is a sanctimonious union in the eyes of God - the government shouldn't have any part in it.

Now, seeing as how the semantics of the terms will never be set aside, realistically speaking I don't see them setting aside the term "marriage" for purely secular, government-recognized unions. It's just too engrained in our collective psyche, and for many it's that golden egg.

As for abortion, I'm one of those who struggles for a nuanced opinion and is still trying to figure out where everything fits. (It doesn't help that I'm 50% atheist and 50% very spiritual.) While I firmly believe in a woman's right to choose, there is a point when it's no longer just about her, there is, in fact, a living being inside of her that should be considered. Now, as to what point it ceases being a collection of cells and becomes an actual person, I agree with President Obama that it's "above my pay grade". I'm not God, and short of that, I don't believe there's any true way to know for certain. My brother had what I consider to be a good thought, though, and he pointed out that since we don't really know, isn't it better to err on the side of protecting and valuing the new life over killing it?

I think we should focus more on preventing unwanted pregnancies in the first place through proper education and contraception, and start with some middle ground on abortions. Abortion should remain legal, but the further along you are in your pregnancy, the more difficult it is to justify and prove "necessary", up to a point where it's all but banned. Education about other options (carry to term then up for adoption) should be thoroughly explored and encouraged at all points.

I hate the concept of abortion, but still think it's a necessary evil in a free society. Raise our children so they shouldn't be needed, but leave the door open for necessity and freedom.

Gallup is at it again, finding there are more pro-...

2009-05-15T09:05:00.000-04:00

Gallup is at it again, finding there are more pro-lifers:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/118399/More-Americans-Pro-Life-Than-Pro-Choice-First-Time.aspx

Abortion is a question about when life begins, and...

2009-05-15T08:48:00.000-04:00

Abortion is a question about when life begins, and balancing up the 'good' of the mother and foetus, deciding if the law has a right - or responsibility - to intervene. It's a debate with deep roots.

On the other hand, gay marriage is mainly a cultural issue. As the culture changes, so do people's attitudes towards gay marriage.

Gay marriage will probably cease to be a big issue within the next twenty years. Abortion will run and run.

countio: Silvio Berlusconi was rewarded at the countio for the European Parliament

Mitch said... Same-sex marriage: No gay marriage. ...

2009-05-15T02:13:00.000-04:00

Mitch said...
Same-sex marriage: No gay marriage. Civil unions are okay.

So, Mitch, you're A-OK with separate but equal (but in reality, UNequal)? You would probably think that Brown vs. Board of Education was an incorrect decision?

Mike in Maryland

My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965

I’ve always thought the way that certain issues ar...

2009-05-14T23:22:00.000-04:00

I’ve always thought the way that certain issues are bundled together on the right and the left is not necessarily always consistent. I’m a 29 year-old (gen Y, whatever that means) who is very liberal on most social issues (pro gay marriage, legalizing pot and other drugs, etc.) but have a mixed view on abortion.

I believe it should be fully legal for the first trimester, and thereafter legal only for health reasons. I recognize some will abuse the health exception, but believe it’s important to have for the cases when there is indeed a legitimate health need for abortion.

My viewpoint on abortion is not for religious reasons, as I am an Atheist/Agnostic. Actually, my viewpoint in part comes from my secular beliefs. What’s known as the “soul” has be proven to be of physical origin, not metaphysical origin. Everything we are, thoughts, emotions, consciousness, memories, etc. has been proven, by decades of scientific evidence, to be purely the product of neurons and brain chemistry. After all, if the “soul” were not physical, a person’s personality wouldn’t change when they have a brain tumor removed, nor would drugs be able to change mood and perception.

Anyway, the point is, I don’t believe that Jesus shoots a metaphysical soul into a microscopic egg the moment a sperm cell penetrates its wall. Therefore, I put the real beginning of life at the point where a fetus attains some kind of true brain function, probably somewhere in the 2nd trimester. Before that it’s really no more conscious than a toenail.

Also, on a related issue, I’m extremely pro contraception, as this is the best way to prevent abortion. I’ve always thought it ironic that many of the anti-abortion forces also virulently oppose contraception, and this opposition to contraception actually increases the abortion rate. (IMO, the main reason the US has a higher abortion rate than many more socially liberal western countries)

I'm a Generation Y'er. Non-practicing but very spi...

2009-05-14T23:14:00.000-04:00

I'm a Generation Y'er. Non-practicing but very spiritual Catholic. I'm with our President on both issues, and kind of at odds with the rest of Generation Y according to your analysis.

Abortion: No ban on partial birth. No Born Alive Infants Protection Act.

Same-sex marriage: No gay marriage. Civil unions are okay.

Gay marriage just doesn't sit right with me. I just think it's always been one man and one woman and it always should be. Seriously, what's wrong with civil unions?

Anyway, I'm proud to stand with President Obama on both of these. He's got it right.

As far as I know, which I'm the first to admit isn...

2009-05-14T22:34:00.000-04:00

As far as I know, which I'm the first to admit isn't much, abortion is rarely taken lightly by the women that are faced with the choice.

Caution, anecdote ahead:
A friend of mine who has/had very liberal views on the issue was faced with the prospect of being an unwed mother in college, made the gut-wrenching decision to have an abortion. About 10 years after the fact she confided in me that she was still haunted by that decision. Rationally, she knew she had made the right decision and, if faced with the same situation would do the same thing again. Yet, the decision has been causing emotional distress ever since.

She still strongly believes that it is a woman's right to choose. But that doesn't mean that choice is ever easy.
End anecdote

My friend's and Shery's stories and others like it, have me convinced that this is something that is entirely up to the woman. As much as I would like the prospective dads to have a say, this isn't about them.

I'm convinced that in most cases abortion will only be used as a last resort. We just have to make sure it's safely available.

There are a lot of hypothetical situations on this...

2009-05-14T20:41:00.000-04:00

There are a lot of hypothetical situations on this thread that make the abortion decision sound like the Wild West. Women have the moral agency to make sober, considered decisions concerning their own fertility and have been doing so forever. The actual 2006 US numbers from Guttmacher bear this out:

90% of all abortions occur in the first trimester. 60% of these occur before the 8th week.

10% of all abortions occur in the 2nd trimester. The majority of 2nd trimester abortions are for low income women and teenagers. For low income: 60% say that although they wanted an earlier procedure, their delays were due to the time it took to raise money and make arrangements. For teenagers: teenagers are overrepresented in this group because they either don’t recognize pregnancy symptoms or are in denial. They are just kids.

1% of abortions occur in the last trimester. Virtually all third trimester abortions occur after ultrasound or other testing finds a fetal abnormality, fetal health concern, or a maternal health risk. In other words, third trimester abortions are grieved as the deaths of wanted and welcomed babies and are by no means undertaken frivolously.

One final number: Catholics account for 27% of all abortions, no doubt partly because the Catholic Church outlaws contraception.

The Catholic Church and some other religions condemn abortion, but here’s a partial list of religions that don‘t condemn it. The official statements from these churches pretty much have the common theme that women’s reproductive freedom is the only moral position.

Episcopal Church USA
Presbyterian Church USA
United Church of Christ
United Methodist Church
Unitarian Universalists
American Baptist Church USA
American Friends Church (Quakers)
Christian Church (Disciples of Christ)
Conservative Judaism
Reform Judaism

Excerpts of the official statements are collected at http://www.rcrc.org/pdf/We_affirm.pdf