Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Projections, 10/24

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2009-02-09T00:31:00.000-05:00

What about Oregon? We have a very close race going...

2008-10-25T15:49:00.000-04:00

What about Oregon? We have a very close race going on here between a moderate Republican incumbent, Gordon Smith, and a progressive Democrat, Jeff Merkley (Speaker of Oregon House). Merkley has been at least 3 points ahead in the last two polls I know of. What are your thoughts on this race?

@badgerhairYour question is not stupid -- andt he ...

2008-10-24T22:59:00.000-04:00

@badgerhair

Your question is not stupid -- andt he answer you've got so far are not respectful nor thoughtful.

Collins (r) of Maine and Rockefeller (d) of WV are long serving senators of relatively small states. In WV, the people know Rockefeller and feel he keeps their interests at heart -- I'd guess it's the same in Maine. Honestly neither state is particularly ideological, but in the Senate, most of all, familiarity trumps ideology overall.

This is why McCain's jeremaiad against earmarks should be completely ineffective in WV -- after all, we are one of the poorest states, with low life expectancy and lower levels of education -- and yep, we get earmarks. Makes some sense, since our economy is based on resource extraction (mostly coal and timber) and the people who pay taxes on the profits that come from that don't live here -- because why would rich people live here? There are places with better schools, cleaner air, better education, international airports, more of pretty much everything that's good. There are you know perhaps 5 starbucks coffee shops in all of West Virignia. We get earmarks -- big ones -- here, because we need them.

The question of why Obama can't even get a lead -- much less match Sen. Rockefeller or Gov. Manchin's numbers is one that requires someone smarter than me. The common thought on this site and the web in general is that West Virginians are backwoods racist hillbillies. That's, if I must say so, probably bullshit. There's plenty of racists in say, Revere Beach MA, or New Hampshire, or Albany OR, or Henrico County VA (these are places I've lived, and they are blue states this year I hope).

If I had to guess, I'd say that it's more that far too many WV folks became reliant on right wing media over the cultural issues (gun control and the faith based issues of abortion and gay rights). They were "hooked" by the RIght Wing media years ago -- and so they tend to believe it when the media, now including freerepublic and their ilk, say Obama is a Muslim, a socialist, the next Chavez, and that he is going to pay slavery reparitions to African Americans.

Don't get me wrong -- there are racists in WV. But more than that, there are people. People who are being lied to. And they believe because the right media has (oooo this sounds rather grim) pretty much captured their souls.

So, you ask, why do they vote for Dems at the state level? Because the national right wing media doesn't pay attention to the state level. W/O the national "Lie Machine", they make decisions at free adults -- and they make better ones. DEM Senate, DEM Governor, 2 DEM Congress and 1 rather moderate REP Congress (who is known all over the state for her constituent service -- want an email back from a live person w/in 24 hours? -- be a constituent of Rep. Captio).

There that's my "serious answer". And y'all who just think it's cool to dismiss WV folks as racists? What have you done besides talk to reduce the impact of racism and way racism grows again in each new generation? He who is without sin...

Iowa might spread even farther. The Republican ch...

2008-10-24T17:50:00.000-04:00

Iowa might spread even farther. The Republican challenger accused Tom Harkin, popular incumbent, of giving aid and comfort to Al-Queda. We're generally somewhat conservative, but most of the people here see attacks like that as incredibly distasteful/dishonest.

'John BARLEYcorn must die"His name is Farley. If ...

2008-10-24T17:29:00.000-04:00

'John BARLEYcorn must die"

His name is Farley. If it were Barley he might lock up all the votes of beer drinkers.

I don't believe Barley can win the Senate race in ...

2008-10-24T15:19:00.000-04:00

I don't believe Barley can win the Senate race in Minnesota. First of all the Independence Party, which Jesse started, seriously lacks an indentity. I know what Greens and Libertarians generally stand for, but the Indepedence party's message is just we're a third option that lies somewhere in the center.

Second Barley doesn't have the kind of personality that really gauged people like Jesse did in 1998. Barley is running basically how the Independence party runs and almost always loses: Pick me because I'm not part of one of the two major parties.

And third, Jesse isn't really that popular here in Minnesota anymore, and that doesn't help Barley.

I'd put a cap on Barley's potential at 25%, but more likely it'll be 20% or less. Franken I think will win, but I can't give a confidence of more than 60% on that.

Darío said... McCain met with Pinochet(Dictator...

2008-10-24T15:09:00.000-04:00

Darío said...

McCain met with Pinochet(Dictator from Chile).

Dario, to me that says more about the Reagan administration than McCain. McCain was probably just following orders.

As a former West Virginian, two comments: (1) Had ...

2008-10-24T14:41:00.000-04:00

As a former West Virginian, two comments: (1) Had Gore's people not decided to pull out early, it's probable--given adequate resources--it would have gone D in 2000 and remained so last time; and (2) for all its natural beauty, it remains one of the most racist, sexist, anti-semitic,and violent places in the nation, so much so that an Obama win there would astound me. Rockefeller shows up way ahead, but where is Robert Byrd again; he failed to endorse/campaign for both Gore and Kerry.

Politico:Dems predicting ‘earthquake’ electionhttp...

2008-10-24T12:54:00.000-04:00

Politico:

Dems predicting ‘earthquake’ election

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14911.html

The Minnesota senate race is still up in the air i...

2008-10-24T12:22:00.000-04:00

The Minnesota senate race is still up in the air in many ways. The last debate happens tonight on Public Television. The real unknown is what happens to the Barkley vote. Many people do not like either major party candidate. If Barkley's numbers go up, many people may switch to him, not away from him. Jessie never exceeded 27% in the polls

In Minnesota we end up voting in high numbers for ...

2008-10-24T12:09:00.000-04:00

In Minnesota we end up voting in high numbers for 3rd party candidates. We elected Jesse Ventura, and last gubernatorial election Mike Hatch lost to Tim Pawlenty because the independant guy got 20% of the vote, mostly from the twin cities from democrats who were pissed off at Mike Hatch.

Barkley could easily get 10%-20% of the vote, because there are so many people who are pissed off at both Coleman and Franken, but who always vote.

Clarification, please?The highlighted polls are ne...

2008-10-24T12:05:00.000-04:00

Clarification, please?

The highlighted polls are new ones added since Nate lasted posted about the Senate, four days ago, right? They are ordered by rank, and so an older poll might be listed in white above a less-reliable, new, highlighted poll. In the MN Senate listings, Big Ten is below a much older SUSA poll.

But in his post, Nate says that Franken is ahead in 4 of the 5 most recent polls. I count 6 new polls. So, is that just a typo on Nate's part, or is he dismissing Big Ten because the data is from 10/16? Or has he already reported on this poll, and it shouldn't be yellow at all?

Or am I missing something else entirely?

Obama Leads McCain by 11 in Battleground StatesBar...

2008-10-24T11:52:00.000-04:00

Obama Leads McCain by 11 in Battleground States

Barack Obama is leading John McCain 52 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent for Ralph Nader and 1 percent for Libertarian Bob Barr in a poll of 15 battleground states conducted Oct. 19-21 for National Public Radio. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

Obama leads by 12 points among independents.

"The race has broken open," said Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg who conducted the survey with Republican Glen Bolger. "Some big things have happened that have closed off the campaign that McCain could have run. He's lost independents, now losing them by 12 points. He was the one Republican this year who could have won Independents, and now he's losing them by double digits."

Link

NPR’s Final Survey: Obama moves into commanding le...

2008-10-24T11:48:00.000-04:00

NPR’s Final Survey: Obama moves into commanding lead in battleground states and on all key elements of campaign
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
National Public Radio
October 24, 2008 from US Politics > NPR Surveys

* Barack Obama enjoys an 11-point lead (52 - 41 percent) across these 15 battleground states. This represents a 15-point swing since 2004 when President Bush carried this states by 4 points.
* The once tough battle between Obama and McCain for independents has broken for Obama as he now holds a 12-point lead among this bloc of voters.
* The McCain campaign made “change” the centerpiece of their message following their convention and though they once narrowed Obama’s lead on “bringing the right kind of change” to just 6 points Obama has now tripled that margin over the last month and edges McCain on the central theme of the election by 18 points.
* The Obama campaign leads the McCain campaign on contacting voters through all forms of communication, including both the traditional and non-traditional modes of communication.

Some pseudo-random observations:Goldwater effect? ...

2008-10-24T11:43:00.001-04:00

Some pseudo-random observations:

Goldwater effect? Is that where we generate electricity from Barry Goldwater's rapid spinning in his grave over the crap the GOP is now pulling?

By the time the investigative reporters get done with Palin:

1. The wing-nuts will hate the memia (except Fox) even more. And you thought that was impossible.
2. She'll get nailed on her income tax returns, (I wonder if she'll get the extra penalty for substnatial underreporting of income.)
3. The legislature will appoint an independent auditor to look at her reimbursements for per diem when she stays at home and for the state's funding her kids' travel.
4. If she runs for re-election she will get a challenge in her re-election from within the Republican party - she's stepped on too many toes. She may decide not to run, saying that she intends to run for pres and she wouldn't have the time to serve as governor.

Also, what will McCain do after the electorate hands him a platter with his head on it? Does he resign in a fit of pique? If he weren't so "mavericky" - that is, self-indulgent actor upon impulse - he would of course stay since the Dem governor would get to appoint his successor.

Or does he decide to keep attacking Obama intemperately until thge GOP puts a gag on him?

kellysirkus said...any chance of a Goldwater Bounc...

2008-10-24T11:43:00.000-04:00

kellysirkus said...

any chance of a Goldwater Bounce in AZ.?

Don't think so, Goldwater jr. (the son) already replied to the niece/granddaughter/whatever refuting her endorsement in the name of the Goldwater family

@jmelectionprojection has a landslide on its daily...

2008-10-24T11:39:00.000-04:00

@jm

electionprojection has a landslide on its daily update it is:

Solid Dem: CA,CT,DC,DE,HI,IL,MD,MA,MI,NJ,NY,RI,VT,WA
Strong Dem:
WI,IA,ME,MN,OR,PA
Moderate Dem:
CO,NM,NH,OH,VA
Weak Dem:
FL,IN,MO,NV,NC

Real Clear Prejudice

2008-10-24T11:36:00.000-04:00

Real Clear Prejudice

Someone earlier mentioned if Biden were to win and...

2008-10-24T11:31:00.000-04:00

Someone earlier mentioned if Biden were to win and the seat being vacated, who will appoint the new Senator.

I think Minner will be on her last day in office on inauguration day. So I believe it will be her. Regardless, that is a safe Democratic Governor's seat. The real action in that race was the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary where Markell (D) barely beat the incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Gov. Markell ran on "change for Delaware" too. Pretty fun.

Eric, I think that you're way more optimistic than...

2008-10-24T11:24:00.000-04:00

Eric, I think that you're way more optimistic than I am. She can re-tool herself in the next 4 (or 8) years, and make a go of it. There will be a segment of the population that will never be able to forget her Katie Couric interviews, but those folks are likely voting the Democratic ticket anyway.

Some of you guys seem confused as to where RCP get...

2008-10-24T11:21:00.000-04:00

Some of you guys seem confused as to where RCP gets their average. The home page is NOT what they are using to get the average. Below is the link which shows the greyed in ones that are used for the average. For state RCP averages you have to click on the state and then look at the greyed areas for those too.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Eisenhower lost Middle School Class presidential r...

2008-10-24T11:18:00.000-04:00

Eisenhower lost Middle School Class presidential race to Mary Fufenmeister.

a

2008-10-24T11:17:00.000-04:00

SP said... It's remarkable to me that some of the ...

2008-10-24T11:16:00.000-04:00

SP said...
It's remarkable to me that some of the otherwise intelligent Republican pundits, somewhow nelieve she'll come out a credible candidate in the future.

Reason Why?

At least 50% of the voters would run to the polls to vote against her no matter who she runs against and regardless of how popular she might be with the rest. She's exactly 1,000,000 X more polarizing than the Clintons. I would vote for a yellow dog over her.

I have a challenging question that I don't know th...

2008-10-24T11:13:00.000-04:00

I have a challenging question that I don't know the answer to. I wonder if any political gurus out there can come up with the answer? Who is the last President to have never lost an election?

Here's my list so far:

Obama lost his first Congressional race to Bobby Rush (2000)

McCain lost Presidential primary run (2000)

Bush Jr. lost his first Congressional race 1980s

Clinton lost a Governor's race 1980s

GHW Bush lost to Clinton in 1992

Reagan lost Presidential primary run in 1976

Carter lost to Reagan in 1980

Ford lost to Carter in 1976

Nixon lost to Kennedy in 1960

I assume Eisenhower never ran for anything before he won the Presidency in 1952, so the answer is Eisenhower?