Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Marches Toward Victory

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2009-09-17T04:20:39.350-04:00

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2009-09-17T04:19:58.498-04:00

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2009-08-28T03:36:55.291-04:00

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2009-04-06T13:04:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:39:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:49:00.000-05:00

Dear Nate & all 538 contributors,Thank you for thi...

2008-11-04T17:08:00.000-05:00

Dear Nate & all 538 contributors,

Thank you for this magnificent website and for all your thoughtful and interesting analysis over the past several months. We've all come to trust your analysis so much, as evidenced by your nightly appearances on various "liberal media" outlets. I am hoping so desperately that your final projections are right and Obama wins this thing by a landslide.

1.1%, thanks for the LULZ! Obama, change we need!

2008-11-04T15:13:00.000-05:00

1.1%, thanks for the LULZ!

Obama, change we need!

It's been a long time coming indeed. I wish Otis R...

2008-11-04T12:34:00.000-05:00

It's been a long time coming indeed. I wish Otis Redding were hear to see this election night.

It ain't over until it's over; I am excited to see what the 7pm ET poll closing results are going to look like in VA and others.... I sure hope this is a short night.

Go Bless Everyone on Earth

Dear Nate and everyone who has run this site,Thank...

2008-11-04T10:40:00.000-05:00

Dear Nate and everyone who has run this site,
Thank you a million times for this. You kept me sane and very happy and hopeful throughout this long, emotional process.
A victory song that needs to be on the list is "Long time comin'" by Buffalo Springfield. And you know the darkest hour is always just before the dawn.

I love you.

2008-11-04T09:49:00.000-05:00

I love you.

Breaking news! Dewey defeats Truman!Let's not get ...

2008-11-04T03:42:00.000-05:00

Breaking news! Dewey defeats Truman!

Let's not get too arrogant here :-)

This made me check out the Drudge Report. Oh the ...

2008-11-04T03:27:00.000-05:00

This made me check out the Drudge Report. Oh the joy. What a fit that strange hunchback is throwing, trying to spin for McCain in the middle of a hurricane for Obama blowing the other way.

I agree with what a previous poster said. I reall...

2008-11-04T03:23:00.000-05:00

I agree with what a previous poster said. I really need to get some sleep and get back to my normal life. I have never been so involved in an election before - emotionally, financially, and spending time volunteering. I'm firmly behind Obama, but I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS TO BE OVER!!! My stress level is off the charts and when I'm able to sleep, I dream about the election. So sad. But thanks to Nate and everyone at 538 for their meticulous work. And thanks to my brother (I think) for turning me on to this site and contributing to my innate obsessive/compulsive issues. GO VOTE!!

screenie of those pie charts next to the drudge ...

2008-11-04T02:58:00.000-05:00

*screenie* of those pie charts next to the drudge siren for my mementos!!

I am so broken-hearted by the passing of Madelyn on the eve of the election. May she RIP.

58 minutes into Election day and even pharmaceuticals aren't going to help me sleep.

My county here in NM is probably red and almost every morning I have to go wash the disgusting vandalism off my Obama yard sign if it hasn't been stolen. (This is one of the lovely aspects of living close enough to west Texas that I can probably throw a heavy rock and almost hit the state line thanks to years of summer softball league.) My state is Blue, holding steady and I am so proud! We have the best green chili ever too.

Someone should write a book on how only junk food corporations are trying to bribe Americans to get out and vote. Starbuck$, Krispy Kreme and Ben & Jerrys are all giving away free stuff tomorrow if you tell them you voted. This is interesting. I aspire to be published non-technically, but I am a wee math/CS type.

1.9% I am off to use GIMP and make some really nifty memories of this occasion!!

Thanks everyone at FiveThirtyEight!! Numbers are so cool, and what you do with numbers is well...

Vote America!

This is amazing. I went volunteering in my area an...

2008-11-04T02:16:00.000-05:00

This is amazing. I went volunteering in my area and even high school girls were commenting on my Obama shirt!

BUT SERIOUSLY GUYS, VOTE TOMORROW!!

DO NOT GET COMPLACENT!!

I think we'd all prefer to wake up Wednesday to Obama winning by a bigger landslide than losing by a hair!

-Nick G. from Tampa

The Bradley Effect was arguably even an myth in th...

2008-11-04T01:02:00.000-05:00

The Bradley Effect was arguably even an myth in the Bradley election. The last polls were showing the race tightening considerably and some showed him behind.

Most of the polls are being pretty conservative with the youth vote. Likely voters almost automatically disqualifies them, although some polls have started expanding their likely voter definition. But Obama still has huge leads even with traditional likely voters.

And "marches toward" still doesn't say that it'll definitely happen. He's just saying that it's very likely. 98.1% qualifies IMO. Check out the posts from yesterday for some McCain win scenarios.

First results are in from dixville notch NH. Obama...

2008-11-04T00:48:00.000-05:00

First results are in from dixville notch NH. Obama 15, McCain 6.
The landslide has started.

How's this for ya then -I believe in change alrigh...

2008-11-04T00:03:00.000-05:00

How's this for ya then -

I believe in change alright, in the sense that McCain is going to change those poll numbers and come out victorious. You gotta believe....

Yeah, Obama looks like he'll def win this. But there are still a few factors currently undetermiend that could nudge McCain ahead:

1.) The Youth Vote - Notorious for not coming out and voting, the youth are even more critical in this election than ever before since they form Obama's base. Chances are it will be a good turn out since it seems like Obama has really motivated the youth, but we've said this before and the media's hype never turns to reality as the youth constantly stay home. If the youth fail to come out, expect a much closer race and a possible win for McCain

2.) The Bradley Effect - This deals with people lying in polls as to not appear racist or the like. Some people may claim in polls that they're voting for Obama so they don't appear racist but when it comes to the privacy of the voting booth they will choose McCain. This effect is very real, but the scope of it is unknown - but will def make the election somewhat closer than what the polls are currently showing.

The Bradley effect alone won't nudge McCain over the tipping point, but in conjucntion with low youth turn out, McCain could very well "steal" this election.

They 2 key states for tomorrow night are VA and PA - both currently leaning towards Obama. McCain is more likely to take VA, if either. However, he NEEDS to take at least one of those two. If Obama wins both, as currently predicted, then it's all but over. But if McCain can turn it around and pick off VA (or, less likely, PA) then it's game on.

So while Obama has a very strong advantage, and it's almost impossible for McCain to win, don't rule out the maverick just yet.

In a campaign that has defied conventional wisdom, anything can still happen.....

Just my take on the situation. Come on McCain, SURGE to victory!

B, you are a pathetically mediocre person. your op...

2008-11-03T23:56:00.000-05:00

B, you are a pathetically mediocre person. your opinions are misinformed, simplistic, and likely come from some deep-seeded racist tendencies. unfortunately, your pitiful use of the english language makes taking you seriously impossible.

you misused the term bias itwice in one post .... the reporting is BIASED....declaring obamas victory highlights BIAS.....biasness is not even a word you imbecile....ughh you poor fool... you are just the type of moron that would support a ticket with palin on it... oh yeah, and bringing up the bradley effect just belies your racist bias..... learn some critical thinking skills.

"I hope McCain pulls out a miracle and wins. You're reporting on the campaigns, while excellency comprehensive has no doubt been bias. When McCain did anything well, you always downplayed it and tried to find ways to negate his accomplishments, while always playing up Obama's achievements. It's pathetic.

Furthermore, declaring the Obama "marches to victory" when the election hasn't even officially began is just unprofessional and highlights your biasness.

While I do concede that Obama most likely has this election in the bag, there are circumstances that could provide McCain with a win. Will the youth vote turn out as expected? Is there going to be a bradley effect?

If McCain wins VA, then it's going to be somewhat interesting, if he loses VA (as well as PA, which he will), then it's all but over.

But how about you don't jump to conclusions 24 hours before the election actually starts?

If you do this blog in 2012 I hope you are more impartial.

Anyone else having problems signing up for the tex...

2008-11-03T23:04:00.000-05:00

Anyone else having problems signing up for the text updates? I'm freaking out. I'm going to need those updates as I'll be at the polls and out volunteering all day!

OBAAAMMMAAAAA!!!

2008-11-03T22:48:00.000-05:00

OBAAAMMMAAAAA!!!

Thanks Nate for all the polls, stats, and analysis...

2008-11-03T22:44:00.000-05:00

Thanks Nate for all the polls, stats, and analysis that I've been reading since May. See you next baseball season.

Now, as they say in Chicago, this one's for John and Sarah Sideshow..."Na Na Na Na, Na Na Na Na, hey hey hey, goodbye!"

Great! America is about to go socialist... Step ...

2008-11-03T22:23:00.000-05:00

Great! America is about to go socialist... Step aside Bush, here comes Karl Marx!

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Marches Toward Victory

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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

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^^ very nice 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵...

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Dear Nate & all 538 contributors,Thank you for thi...

1.1%, thanks for the LULZ! Obama, change we need!

It's been a long time coming indeed. I wish Otis R...

Dear Nate and everyone who has run this site,Thank...

I love you.

Breaking news! Dewey defeats Truman!Let's not get ...

This made me check out the Drudge Report. Oh the ...

I agree with what a previous poster said. I reall...

*screenie* of those pie charts next to the drudge ...

This is amazing. I went volunteering in my area an...

The Bradley Effect was arguably even an myth in th...

First results are in from dixville notch NH. Obama...

How's this for ya then -I believe in change alrigh...

B, you are a pathetically mediocre person. your op...

Anyone else having problems signing up for the tex...

OBAAAMMMAAAAA!!!

Thanks Nate for all the polls, stats, and analysis...

Great! America is about to go socialist... Step ...

screenie of those pie charts next to the drudge ...