Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Math for Donkeys

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路...

2009-09-06T05:22:50.602-04:00

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美女視訊,a片,成人網站,美女交友,美...

2009-03-22T16:04:00.000-04:00

室內設計,室內設計,室內設計,裝潢,室內設計,室內設計室內設計公司,搬家公司,搬家公司,台北搬家公司...

2009-03-14T06:11:00.000-04:00

室內設計,室內設計,室內設計,裝潢,室內設計,室內設計室內設計公司
,搬家公司,搬家公司,台北搬家公司,搬家公司,室內設計
這一家租屋網免費刊登不用錢耶
搬家公司,健身,茶葉 A片,SEO,SEO,SEO,motel,led手電筒,棧板,二胎,隔熱紙,照明,健身,a383,a383,,二手家具,a383,胸章,車燈,
文山搬家,兼職小姐,南港搬家,大安區搬家,松山搬家,中山區搬家,八里搬家,
五股搬家,
泰山搬家,大同區搬家,中正區搬家,士林搬家,萬華搬家,

台北搬家公司,台北搬家公司,客人,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,加油棒,台中搬家公司,台北市搬家公司,台北縣搬家公司

台中美食

台北美食

新竹美食

桃園美食

台中美食小吃

台中美食餐廳

大台中美食網

台北美食餐廳

桃園美食餐廳
桃園美食網

新竹美食網

新竹美食餐廳

^^ nice blog!! ^@^徵信, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社...

2009-03-11T03:41:00.001-04:00

^^ nice blog!! thanks a lot! ^^徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信...

2009-03-11T03:41:00.000-04:00

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-02-10T06:42:00.000-05:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T01:32:00.000-05:00

Subject: In just 16 MonthsPart 1In just 16 months...

2008-04-28T09:50:00.000-04:00

Subject: In just 16 Months

Part 1

In just 16 months.. Remember the election in 2006?
Thought you might like to read the following:
A little over 16 MONTHS ago:

1) Consumer confidence stood at a 2 1/2 year high;
2) Regular gasoline sold for $2.19 a gallon;
3) The unemployment rate was 4.5%.

Since voting in a Democratic Congress in 2006 we have seen:

1) Consumer confidence plummet;
2) The cost of regular gasoline soar to over $3.50 a gallon;
3) Unemployment is up to 5% (a 10% increase);
4) American households have seen $2.3 trillion in equity value evaporate (stock and mutual fund losses);
5) Americans have seen their home equity drop by $1.2 trillion dollars;
6) 1% of American homes are in foreclosure.

America voted for change in 2006, and we got it!

Remember it's Congress that makes law not the President. He has to work
with what's handed to him.

Quote of the Day........"My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world. I hope you'll join with me as we try to
change it."
-- Barack Obama

Part 2:
Taxes...Whether Democrat or a Republican you will find these statistics
enlightening and amazing.
www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html
http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/151.html

Taxes under Clinton 1999
Taxes under Clinton 1999-:Single making 30K - tax $8,400. Taxes under Bush 2008:Single making 30K -tax $4,500.
Taxes under Clinton 1999-Single making 50K - tax $14,000. Taxes under Bush 2008: Single making 50K - tax $12,500.
Taxes under Clinton 1999- Single making 75K - tax $23,250. Taxes under Bush 2008: Single making 75K - tax $18,750.
Taxes under Clinton 1999-Married making 60K - tax $16,800. Taxes under Bush 2008: Married making 60K- tax $9,000.
Taxes under Clinton 1999-Married making 75K - tax $21,000. Taxes under Bush 2008: Married making 75K - tax $18,750.
Taxes under Clinton 1999-Married making 125K - tax $38,750. Taxes under Bush 2008: Married making 125K - tax $31,250.

Both democratic candidates will return to the higher tax rates.

It is amazing how many people that fall into the categories above think Bush is screwing them and Bill Clinton was the greatest President ever.

If Obama or Hillary are elected, they both say they will repeal the Bush tax cuts and a good portion of the people that fall into the categories above can't wait for it to happen. This is like the movie The Sting with Paul Newman; you scam somebody out of some money and they don't even
know what happened.

PART 3:
You think the war in Iraq is costing us too much? Read this:

Boy, am I confused. I have been hammered with the propaganda that it is the Iraq war and the war on terror that is bankrupting us. I now find that to be RIDICULOUS.

I hope the following 14 reasons are forwarded over and over again until they are read so many times that the reader gets sick of reading them.

I have included the URL's for verification of all the following facts.

1. $11 Billion to $22 billion is spent on welfare to illegal aliens each year by state governments.

Verify at: http://tinyurl.com/zob77 http://tinyurl.com/zob77

2. $2.2 Billion dollars a year is spent on food assistance programs such as food stamps, WIC, and free school lunches for illegal aliens.

Verify at: http://www.cis..org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html

3. $2.5 Billion dollars a year is spent on Medicaid for illegal
aliens.
Verify at:
http://www.cis..org/articles/2004/fiscalexec.html

4.$12 Billion dollars a year is spent on primary and secondary
School education for children here illegally and they cannot speak a word of English!
Verify at:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.0.html

5. $17 Billion dollars a year is spent for education for the
American-born children of illegal aliens, known as anchor babies.
Verify at
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html

6. $3 Million Dollars a DAY is spent to incarcerate illegal aliens.
Verify at:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html

7. 30% percent of all Federal Prison inmates are illegal aliens.
Verify at:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html

8. $90 Billion Dollars a year is spent on illegal aliens for Welfare & social services by the American taxpayers.

Verify at: http://premium.cnn.com/TRANSCIPTS/0610/29/ldt.01.html

9. $200 Billion Dollars a year in suppressed American wages are caused
by the illegal aliens.

Verify at: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0604/01/ldt.01.html

10. The illegal aliens in the United States have a crime rate that's
two and a half times that of white non-illegal aliens. In particular,
their children, are going to make a huge additional crime problem in the US.
Verify at:
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0606/12/ldt.01.html

11. During the year of 2005 there were 4 to 10 MILLION illegal aliens
that crossed our Southern Border also, as many as 19,500 illegal aliens from Terrorist Countries. Millions of pounds of drugs, cocaine, meth, heroin and marijuana, crossed into the U. S from the Southern border.

Verify at: Homeland Security Report:
http://tinyurl.com/t9sht

12. The National Policy Institute, "estimated that the total cost of mass deportation would be between $206 and $230 billion or an average cost of between $41 and $46 billion annually over a five year period."
Verify at:
http://www.nationalpolicyinstitute.org/pdf/deportation.pdf

13. In 2006 illegal aliens sent home $45 BILLION in remittances back to
their countries of origin.
Verify at:
http://www.rense.com/general75/niht.htm

14. "The Dark Side of Illegal Immigration: Nearly One Million Sex
Crimes Committed by Illegal Immigrants In The United States ."
Verify at:
http://www.drdsk.com/articleshtml

The total cost is a whopping $ 338.3 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR.

Are we THAT stupid?
If this doesn't bother you then just ignore this message. If, on the other hand, it does raise the hair on the back of your neck, I hope you forward it to every legal resident in the country including every representative in Washington , D.C. - five times a week for as long as it takes to restore some semblance of intelligence in our policies and
enforcement thereof.

'Why aren't we counting the "votes" from France an...

2008-04-27T16:41:00.000-04:00

'Why aren't we counting the "votes" from France and Germany?'

Actually -- we are. US citizens, registered Democratic, living in France or Germany, voted in the "Democrats Abroad" primary. Obama won.

In your turnout model, do you include a variable a...

2008-04-25T17:48:00.000-04:00

In your turnout model, do you include a variable as to whether or not the Republican race has been decided? This should be a big factor.

You could, for example, use a measure for the competitiveness of the Republican nomination, as measured by the entropy of the distribution of delegates among remaining candidates.

I suspect you will find that you have in general underestimated turnout.

"What about the fact that people residing in Puert...

2008-04-24T12:49:00.000-04:00

"What about the fact that people residing in Puerto Rico and Guam have ZERO votes in the Electoral College? Why aren't we counting the "votes" from France and Germany?"

Puerto Ricans and Guamians(?) are US citizens; French and Germans are not. The US President is their head of state; he or she is not for Germans and French.

Poblano,have you done any analysis of "caucus effe...

2008-04-24T12:00:00.000-04:00

Poblano,

have you done any analysis of "caucus effects", compared to either pre-caucus poll numbers or the demographic profiles of voters in similar primary states?

Turnout behavior and expectations differed dramatically between caucus and primary states - so "popular" vote arguments may be apples-and-oranges comparisons.

The popular vote count that includes caucus estima...

2008-04-24T10:07:00.000-04:00

The popular vote count that includes caucus estimates should include the Texas caucuses. Approximately 1.1 million people spent hours voting in those caucuses because they were told their votes would count. That's as many people as voted in the entire "big state" of New Jersey. Good luck telling them their votes count for nothing -- it just won't fly.

I think the best way to deal with popular vote in combined caucus-primary states is a weighted average based on the DNC weights (aka delegates).

So for Washington, we would have:

1 vote =
(0/78) * Primary vote +
(78/78) * Caucus vote

For Texas:

1 vote =
(126/193) * Primary vote +
(67/193) * Caucus vote

This is consistent with how the voters were told their votes would count, which makes it the most reasonable way to estimate popular vote. We just need to make people aware of it.

Ikl:I don't think people will say that Indiana is ...

2008-04-24T05:59:00.000-04:00

Ikl:

I don't think people will say that Indiana is 'prime' Obama territory, but it's the last state left where the demographics are relatively even between the candidates.

For example you can consider the percentage of residents over 65 (2006 census)

Indiana - 12.4%
Ohio - 13.3%
Penn - 15.2%

That's quite a big shift in the population demographic and makes the state actually contestable.

The other demographic that favours Obama is that the rural vote in Indiana is smaller than Ohio and Pennsylvania. A large proportion of the vote will come from Indianapolis and the industrial Gary.

Obama is likely to be strong in both places. In the former because he generally does well in the cities, and in the latter because that region is covered by the Chicago media market.

By contrast however Hillary has the advantage of the bigger Democratic endorsements which will provide organisations.

We can also look at the African-American demographic which tends to break for Obama.

Indiana - 8.9%
Ohio - 12.0%
Penn - 10.7%

So basically the 'core' support of both candidates is a lesser influence in this state and so both have a good chance of getting a victory.

I don't understand why folks think that Indiana is...

2008-04-24T01:53:00.000-04:00

I don't understand why folks think that Indiana is a good state for Obama. Other than the northwest part being in the Chicago media market, I can't think of any reason that the state would be particularly good for him.

Poblano, what saith your model?

For anyone in need of a good laugh, here are Baron...

2008-04-24T00:55:00.000-04:00

For anyone in need of a good laugh, here are Barone's other predictions:

IN +20% for Clinton
NC -10%
WV +40%
KT +30%
OR -10%
PR +30%
MT +20%
SD +20%

He also predicted +20% for Clinton in PA. The only reason he wasn't off by 200,000+ votes is that turnout exceeded even optimistic expectations. His NC through OR predictions are semi-plausible, but the rest are certifiable.

brian dell: Barone was off by 155,000 votes in PA....

2008-04-24T00:48:00.000-04:00

brian dell: Barone was off by 155,000 votes in PA. His projections, even from his admitted standpoint of being optimistic for Clinton, are completely delusional and yet another prime example of the establishment media's intellectual bankruptcy. "Journalists" like Barone are the past; Bloggers poblano are the future.

Hillary supposedly signed this DNC pledge last yea...

2008-04-24T00:38:00.000-04:00

Hillary supposedly signed this DNC pledge last year-- it makes her look like a pretty big hypocrite for making the argument that Florida and Michigan should be included as part of the popular vote count. (Something that I heard McAuliffe try and argue today.)

Here is the important part:

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge
I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential
election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa,
Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by
rules and regulations of the DNC.

It's a pretty simple argument-- Hillary agreed to the rules beforehand in writing and now says they don't apply. She didn't agree to a popular vote contest or a Biggest States Won contest. She agreed to the system we have and is trying to change the rules mid-game.

"Nobody but nobody ... is going to give her credit...

2008-04-24T00:27:00.000-04:00

"Nobody but nobody ... is going to give her credit for the uncontested primary in Michigan"

That's perfectly sound coming from a blogger, but when it's coming from a numbers guy talking about what the probabilities say, the statement is a bit too categorical. It makes the reader a bit skeptical of the numbers.

Michael Barone is still arguing that Hillary has a chance that doesn't require an earth shaking move in the polls.

You are the man. Really. I even assign your posts ...

2008-04-24T00:10:00.000-04:00

You are the man. Really. I even assign your posts to my research methods class.

What about the fact that people residing in Puerto...

2008-04-23T23:45:00.000-04:00

What about the fact that people residing in Puerto Rico and Guam have ZERO votes in the Electoral College?
Why aren't we counting the "votes" from France and Germany?

I can't think of a defeat margin in North Carolina...

2008-04-23T23:28:00.000-04:00

I can't think of a defeat margin in North Carolina and Indiana big enough to make Clinton pass up the massacre that Kentucky and West Virginia promise to be.

There will be a Kentucky and West Virginia primary.

I suspect she's convention bound in just about any scenario, and they'll have to drag her out kicking and screaming if she doesn't win the nomination.

But you can get a clue of the disaster that awaits Obama in those states by looking at the margins in the counties in far western Virginia and southeastern Ohio.

Even the western tip of North Carolina will be embarassing for Obama, but he'll more than make it up in the rest of the state.

I love this site!Michael Barone and others gave me...

2008-04-23T23:25:00.000-04:00

I love this site!

Michael Barone and others gave me my introduction to political geography with the Almanac of American Politics, which I have read and mostly admired every two years in the last three decades. But, he has since turned hard right. I believe he is the one who has started the ball rolling with a pseudo-serious analysis of the "popular vote" this season.

My two big objections: 1) So What? 2) How about a "Best Obama" scenario that takes the percentage delegate wins in caucus states and multiplies them by a factor to correct for typical primary turnout? In other words, why continue to ignore the overwhelming and perverse effect of disregarding the popular support in states with a long tradition, blessed by party rules, of using caucuses?

If Obama wins Indiana (and North Carolina), I'm no...

2008-04-23T23:19:00.000-04:00

If Obama wins Indiana (and North Carolina), I'm not sure that there will be a Kentucky primary. But -- yeah, the states are a mess for him. There were three or four counties in Tennessee where Obama lost to *John Edwards*.

Oops...that -187,000 should be a +87,000.

2008-04-23T23:10:00.000-04:00

Oops...that -187,000 should be a +87,000.