Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Can Obama Clinch on June 3rd?

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2009-10-09T04:42:13.196-04:00

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2009-05-07T11:57:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-10T23:01:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T23:46:00.000-05:00

They'd claim to see an opening whether or they did...

2008-05-22T23:00:00.000-04:00

They'd claim to see an opening whether or they did or not. They're never going to admit to extortion or sabotage. Everything they do will always be sold as "for the people."

There is no chance whatsoever that Obama won't get at least the 55 uncommitteds. The state party in Michigan has already formally asked the DNC to accept a delegation of 69-59. This includes support from Clinton's backers.

Clinton, of course, rejected the deal and she can keep fighting and claiming she can win for the rest of her life, but it won't accomplish anything other than to damage Obama and the party, to help elect McCain and to make her and the Clinton brand name anathema to the Democratic Party for all time.

Clinton's current hostage scenario cannot survive much longer. Obama and the super delegates are allowing her to take this to 6/3 in the hope that she will bow out gracefully, but if she refuses, the hammer will come down.

Anonymous @9:13 PM ---> They won't accept giving t...

2008-05-22T22:55:00.000-04:00

Anonymous @9:13 PM ---> They won't accept giving the 55 delegates to Obama? fucking hell these people have no shame. That's fucking insane. Those 55 are real people who were selected to vote against Clinton - they will be against her if they are seated. These people are out of their minds. Shit like that makes me think that the superdelegates should just all come out now and put this to an end.

I think Obama has plenty of pledged delegates up h...

2008-05-22T22:52:00.000-04:00

I think Obama has plenty of pledged delegates up his sleeve. What he should do is let Clinton have her way with Michigan & Florida (just so she doesn't have anything left to complain about) & then have enough superdelegates fall into place that he can win on June 3.

McAuliffe said today that they won't accept giving...

2008-05-22T22:13:00.000-04:00

McAuliffe said today that they won't accept giving Michigan's 55 uncommitted delegates to Obama, but that the delegates must decide for themselves. So if you modify scenario C to reflect Clinton's best case and include the 55 as additional unpledged delegates, then Obama needs 101 out of 277 unpledged delegates to clinch by June 21st. That's 36%. Conversely, Clinton would need 64%. Unlikely but possible if she pushes the popular vote and Ohio-Florida arguments successfully. They may also see themselves picking up more add-on delegates. I think it's foolish to dismiss the campaign as irrational or focused only on the vice-presidency. They still see an opening.

Gerthein said:"However, halving the delegates and ...

2008-05-22T15:52:00.000-04:00

Gerthein said:

"However, halving the delegates and assigning MI-Uncommitted to Obama is a solution that is entirely too reasonable for her to dismiss it and go on to the Credentials Committee with any semblance of dignity and rationale."

You must remember we're talking about Hillary Clinton here. "Dignity" and "rationale" went out the window as far as her character is concerned about two months ago. Once the RBC reaches a compromise that the Obama camp and the FL & MI representatives agree to, I wholly expect the Clinton camp to insist on contesting it, even though doing so will contravene the wishes of the FL & MI delegations.

This is not about those delegations, nor is it about civil rights or principle. It's about the Clintons' sense of entitlement to the nomination, plain and simple.

This will all be resolved no later than Mid-June. ...

2008-05-22T15:27:00.000-04:00

This will all be resolved no later than Mid-June. Why? Simple because of Ted Kennedy's diagnosis during the last week. He is the final son of Camelot, the last of the brothers, the final link in the family that has been the Democratic Party for the last half century. His endorsement is no longer just an endorsement but the passing of a legacy. Name one Democratic Super Delegate that will tell Senator Kennedy no to his request for party unity. He will unite the party, be the DNC Key Note Speaker, and this will serve as the bookend to the Kennedy legacy. His last great contribution to the party, bringing it together after it appeared hopelessly divided.

I see Sen. Clinton as a woman swimming in very rat...

2008-05-22T14:14:00.000-04:00

I see Sen. Clinton as a woman swimming in very rational denial. She absolutely refuses to "see" the obvious, that she can't win, but the beauty of her blindness is that it allows daily access to her amazingly huge ego. I think she and Bill have carefully used their crayolas drawing a big picture that includes more options than Obama's VP slot because creative strategists in denial plan for all possibilities no matter how remote or out of that box labeled humility and common sense.

Does anyone really think that her campaigning in Florida last year wasn't carefully planned as part of the bigger Zimbabwe picture we see today?? This woman puts all possible scenarios on the table because in her amazing world, the most magical things can happen, like files appearing and disappearing, if she hangs in there long enough. What if Obama gets run over by a yellow submarine between now and November? (Wow, big opportunity there.) What if, because she now proudly sports the biggest pair of bowling balls, John McCain makes her a VP offer she can't refuse? Hmnn, she might have already had that conversation with a good insider bookie. Wonder what he gave her for odds of McCain getting run over by a demented senior in a walker (I can't explain why the name Joe Lieberman popped into my mind)after he gets elected.

The "what if's" can be lined up like dominos on a toy box..all she has to do is keep campaigning and see what happens. We can only hope someone gets her a boat before she drowns in that river!

OK, your analysis is very interesting, but my ques...

2008-05-22T14:05:00.000-04:00

OK, your analysis is very interesting, but my question is: What exactly is it that the Clintons have over the neck of the party to the extent that the party and/or the superdelegates are scared to support Obama and end this thing?

After the May 31st meeting, who has standing to ap...

2008-05-22T13:56:00.000-04:00

After the May 31st meeting, who has standing to appeal?

Say the committee agrees to seat half the pledged and no supers. That's the minimum penalty listed in the party rules.

If the state party is the only body that can appeal that, they might decide to take the deal and move on. They'll want a good relationship with the nominee and his fundraising juggernaut.

If an individual delegate can appeal, someone will do it from each state. Even then, it could be a small subset of the total delegation, and maybe even so small that it's clear to everyone that the matter is settled.

I'd also love to know who--if anyone--could appeal if the committee seats a full delegation right in line with the voting in each state.

When's the last time the convention chose a VP nom...

2008-05-22T12:57:00.000-04:00

When's the last time the convention chose a VP nominee who wasn't requested/approved by the Presidential candidate beforehand? I don't think that's happened in the last 60 years. Probably not for a lot longer than that.

I'm not saying the Pres candidate is immune to incentives to accommodate different interests when making his VP choice, as JFK was in choosing LBJ. But it was Kennedy's decision, not the convention acting independently.

She's not irrational. It is pretty obvious she is...

2008-05-22T12:50:00.000-04:00

She's not irrational. It is pretty obvious she is going for VP at this point. She hasn't said a bad word about Obama for weeks. Neither one of them will have enough elected delegates after all voting is done on June 3 because she keeps winning. There are a number of superdelegates who would easily vote Obama for prez, and then take Clinton as VP. Don't forget the convention chooses the VP nominee in the rules, not the candidate. The more leverage she has in terms of the number of delegates, the more she matters at the convention and for VP. It is very rational, actually.

Gee, what a great site! Terrific main post, and r...

2008-05-22T12:47:00.000-04:00

Gee, what a great site! Terrific main post, and rational comment from the rest of you!

I think the Clintons must believe: Whoever's the nominee will be the President (and those educated Chablis DEMs who vote for Obama won't cut off their noses by crossing to McCain). So ANYTHING is worth it. Have a 2-fold strategy: (1) PULL: Convince supers to turn her way (ref: "popular vote," "electoral map" etc.); and (2) PUSH: brinkmanship/extortion, with progressive threats to blow things up (made plausible with interspersed big-wins).

Not pretty. But if you want someone who's "in it to win it," then "I'm your girl."

Poblano,How would the "Pelosi Club" fit in to all ...

2008-05-22T12:33:00.000-04:00

Poblano,

How would the "Pelosi Club" fit in to all of this? Seems like they make even the higher Super #'s attainable if they follow their pledge.

Clinton is clearly into a scorched earth policy no...

2008-05-22T12:31:00.000-04:00

Clinton is clearly into a scorched earth policy now. Her remarks in FL about slavery, the hanging chad election, and so on, are becoming more and more bizarre. Her backtracking and shifting the criteria for victory, and her threat to go all the way to the convention, are poisoning everything in the race.

One conclusion: she's given up on becoming the VP candidate; so being even more offensive has no immediate cost for her. But she can sail off into the sunset with her $100 million in wealth when this is done, deceiving herself into thinking she "went down to defeat fighting for a larger cause."

She's got a cancer on her candidacy now. But she can leave a legacy as the Jim Valvano of Democratic politics, with the immortal phrase "Never give up! Never give up!"

Congratulations, poblano! You've once again prove...

2008-05-22T12:27:00.000-04:00

Congratulations, poblano! You've once again proven yourself relevant enough for people to try to criticize you. In this case, a front page story on myDD is cherry-picking the opening paragraph from this post, and making it seem like you are attaching importance to something that you, in fact, are not attaching any importance to.

It's sort of ironic, because I imagine that you would agree that pledged delegates are not the ultimate yardstick. It's just not your point.

It is past the time when someone should have taken...

2008-05-22T12:22:00.000-04:00

It is past the time when someone should have taken Hillary by the arm and escorted her off the stage. Her objectives a clearly not for what is best for the Democratic Party. Would any of the other candidates have been allowed to continue with their public fight to be President, even after it was evident to all that the task was impossible? Could Obama have gotten away with this type of behaviour? I think not.