Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Arkansas

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2009-10-08T04:29:04.503-04:00

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2009-09-23T01:21:09.587-04:00

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2009-01-19T10:13:00.000-05:00

Libertarian, Well, yes, I'd agree that income corr...

2008-09-10T22:20:00.000-04:00

Libertarian, Well, yes, I'd agree that income correlates positively with voting GOP, and that makes a certain amount of sense, since the GOP promises lower taxes on this group.

Indeed, if you earn 250.000 you just don't want to face a marginal tax rate of 60% (income tax plus payroll tax that Obama plans to uncap). However, in my view low-income families would also benefit from a free-market approach. They are the ones that are caught in the vicious cycle of failing unionized state schools that the Democrats want to protect, while school choice and school vouchers would allow them to escape. High-income families however benefit from the status quo as they tend to live in leafy, affluent neighborhoods with good schools, and their house prices are driven up due to high demand for houses in these catchment areas with good schools, while low-income families are kept out. So I would contend that school choice is an issue where rational low-income families should prefer the GOP, while high-income families may even benefit from the status quo that Democrats vow to uphold. The same is true for trade: Poor families would be hurt by the Democrats' protectionism as tariffs would make many products far more expansive.

And I will agree that those who cash in their degrees for high-paying jobs are more likely to vote GOP. But there are lots of people besides academics who are well (or very well) educated but don't have high incomes. Many people don't see education as a financial investment as much as a way of improving oneself. And quite a few people get rich with very little education.

Here I agree. My assumption is that Republicans may tend to prefer subjects like economics, finance, computer science, natural science, maths, corporate law, while Democrats may rather tend to choose subjects like arts, philosophy, political sciences, sociology, gender studies - but that's only a guess as I haven't seen any surveys. Republicans would have a higher (monetary!) return on their educational investment. I would be interested in rigorous studies.

I stand by my position that more education is correlated with voting Democratic, though I will certainly concede your position that higher income groups tend to vote more Republican.

As for education: This year polls indeed appear to show a slight positive correlation between education and preference for Obama - I'm wondering to what extent that's due to age distributions. 30 or 40 years ago only 20-25% went to college; today it's 40-45%. There is a negative correlation between age and preference for Obama this year (probably due to the fact that Obama is 25 years younger than McCain), and younger people tend to go to college far more often than older people did, so that might explain the result. If we introduced age as a control variable, I'd assume the data would again reveal the (slight!) positive correlation between education and GOP preference but that would depend on more thorough investigation.

PS: As you stand by your claim that "more education is [positively] correlated with voting Democratic", how would you personally explain this correlation? Do certain types of education make people more left-wing? (If you're on the left you may say: "If you get educated you become more likely to see the light." If you're on the right you may say: "Young students get indoctrinated by left-wing college professors on campus.") Or do people who are more left-wing in the first place prefer to stay longer at college than young right-winger who want to start earning money as soon as possible? Or is there a hidden variable (urban/rural, religious/secular etc.)?

Libertarian,Well, yes, I'd agree that income corre...

2008-09-10T21:21:00.000-04:00

Libertarian,
Well, yes, I'd agree that income correlates positively with voting GOP, and that makes a certain amount of sense, since the GOP promises lower taxes on this group. And I will agree that those who cash in their degrees for high-paying jobs are more likely to vote GOP. But there are lots of people besides academics who are well (or very well) educated but don't have high incomes. Many people don't see education as a financial investment as much as a way of improving oneself. And quite a few people get rich with very little education.

I stand by my position that more education is correlated with voting Democratic, though I will certainly concede your position that higher income groups tend to vote more Republican. See my links for a more detailed view of the 2008 and 2004 numbers (the 2004 numbers are buried in a chart near the end of the PDF).

GregM said... I just came across this article, whi...

2008-09-10T20:56:00.000-04:00

GregM said...
I just came across this article, which might be interesting to readers of this site: Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

I might be the biggest Obama supporter on this blog, and even I don't think he's got a chance to win anywhere near 55-45 in the popular vote. That's crazy!

@sedi: CNN 2004 exit poll data show a slight posit...

2008-09-10T20:53:00.000-04:00

@sedi:

CNN 2004 exit poll data show a slight positive correlation between education and GOP preference: Kerry leads among "No High School", Bush leads 52% to 46% among "College Graduate".

There is an even stronger correlation between income and GOP preference: Kerry leads Bush 63% to 36% among those with income under 15.000, while Bush leads Kerry 63% to 35% among those with income above 200.000. That's even if you adjust for race, gender etc.

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Given that there is only a slight positive correlation for education, but a strong positive correlation for income, we can conclude that Republicans tend to have higher returns on their investment in education.

O'Reilly is a blowhard and showboat, but I think d...

2008-09-10T20:32:00.001-04:00

O'Reilly is a blowhard and showboat, but I think deep down this schtick.

What he craves is attention and respect. Obama showed him that.<<<<

Realistxxx. You hit the nail on the head. O"Reilly wants to be seen as a non biased reporter compared with the right wing nuts on the show that follows his.

Libertarian,I thought that you were full of s**t w...

2008-09-10T20:32:00.000-04:00

Libertarian,
I thought that you were full of s**t when you said that better educated voters favor McCain and the GOP. I couldn't quite put my finger on why, but then it dawned on me: it's because you are full of s**t!

In April 2008, Gallup found that Obama leads with those having postgraduate education, is even among college grads, leads among those with some college, and trails only with those with high school education. Other experts have found similar results. For example, Alan Abramowitz analyzing 2004 results shows a correlation between both self-IDing as a Democrat and voting for Kerry.

Nicholas - I agree about Olbermann's Obama intervi...

2008-09-10T20:29:00.000-04:00

Nicholas -

I agree about Olbermann's Obama interview. I'm a democrat, I'm partisan, I like Olbermann's show. But that interview with Obama was just pure fluff. I tuned out most of it.

I've seen football coaches get tougher questions from sideline reporters as they're heading into the locker room at half-time.

Thanks to Tito, Realistxxx, and Nicholas for repli...

2008-09-10T20:26:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Tito, Realistxxx, and Nicholas for replies,
I tend to avoid Fox, sort of inoculating myself with CNN (Like Anderson Cooper best) and MSNBC. I just can not take Olberman, but I do listen to Rachel with her new show. Chris Matthews is the problem, I used to like him and watch him all the time. Maybe I am wrong, but he seems to be moving closer to Olberman. A real problem for a politics junkie.

I just came across this article, which might be in...

2008-09-10T20:23:00.000-04:00

I just came across this article, which might be interesting to readers of this site: Number-crunching pollster sees decisive Obama win

I would like to hear from my democratic friends. G...

2008-09-10T20:18:00.000-04:00

I would like to hear from my democratic friends. Given that this is FOX, what do you think of O"Reilly?

Amazingly, I gained some respect for O'Rielly. He's still a terrible journalism/commentator, but his interview with Obama was good, and certainly better than Olberman's. Obama had a chance to defend himself to the very people who don't like him. Olberman had only softball questions.

Fl GOP - I haven't watched the three parts this we...

2008-09-10T20:17:00.001-04:00

Fl GOP -

I haven't watched the three parts this week. Bill-O's unprofessionalism as an interviewer in the first part soured me to it. I'll have to go back and watch the three from this week I guess.

FL-GOP,O'Reilly is a blowhard and showboat, but I ...

2008-09-10T20:17:00.000-04:00

FL-GOP,

O'Reilly is a blowhard and showboat, but I think deep down this schtick.

What he craves is attention and respect. Obama showed him that. He has been very nice to Obama both during the interviews and wrap ups.

Smart move by Obama. Better than Saddleback where he though he might get a fair break from Warren.

I am still not sure how Saddleback plays long run but going back to back with McCain didn't work too well.

FloridaGOP said... I am watching O"Reilly with ...

2008-09-10T20:15:00.001-04:00

FloridaGOP said...

I am watching O"Reilly with Obama. Just before starting Bill DEFENDED Obama against Lipstick on a Pig -- and said it would blowback on McCain.

I agree, in my mean and over-the-top sort of way (see above). I can't believe that I agree with Bill O'Reilly.

My head hurts.

Here's a good primer on the looming Banking Tsunam...

2008-09-10T20:15:00.000-04:00

Here's a good primer on the looming Banking Tsunami,

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/08/wallison.fanniemae/

"These warnings began in earnest near the end of the Clinton administration, especially by Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence Summers, and were carried forward by the Bush administration, which supported legislation that would provide stronger regulation for Fannie and Freddie.

But these warnings were ignored in Congress. Although there were efforts by a number of Republicans in the House and Senate to adopt tougher regulatory legislation -- beginning in 1999 -- these efforts were resisted by Democrats, primarily Sen. Charles Schumer of New York and Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut, who is currently the chairman of the Senate committee with jurisdiction over the GSEs.

To their credit, when the problems of Fannie and Freddie finally became too obvious to ignore, the Democrats in the House and Senate voted for stronger regulation of the two companies and to give the Secretary of the Treasury broad authority to bail them out. But by then it was far too late to save the taxpayers.

In the current election season, the American people should want to know why it is that they as taxpayers will now be compelled to bail out these companies.

John McCain was one of the Republicans who supported GSE reform, but he and the others faced an insurmountable defensive phalanx in Congress -- the result of a strong lobbying and political support program engineered and operated over many years by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The fact that the Republicans controlled Congress during much of this period shows the validity of McCain's comment in his convention acceptance speech that "We were elected to change Washington, and we let Washington change us."

Among other things, Fannie and Freddie orchestrated substantial contributions to the campaign funds of their congressional supporters. They hired some former congressional staff members as lobbyists and engaged lobbying firms that had strong relationships with members of Congress, including lobbyists who are active in both of this year's presidential campaigns

They got people who were homebuilders, Realtors and members of the securities industry -- all groups that profited from Fannie and Freddie's activities -- to hold fundraising events for key members of Congress of both parties; they staged ribbon-cuttings and other events in the congressional districts of their supporters in order to provide them with favorable publicity; they established charitable arms that contributed to community groups who in turn supported them when some in Congress sought tougher regulation.

This is a prominent example of Washington's culture of corruption. The government put its credit behind the two companies; this enabled them to grow and dominate the housing finance market; they used their resulting financial and political power to gain and retain the support of key members of Congress; and the process continued until they collapsed -- at which time the taxpayers have to clean things up."

Human shield or ventriloquist dummy? I think if yo...

2008-09-10T20:13:00.000-04:00

Human shield or ventriloquist dummy? I think if you look hard enough you can seen McCain's mouth moving while she's giving his speeches. I'm gonna have to start looking to see if McCain drinks any water while she's speaking.

I am watching O"Reilly with Obama. Just before sta...

2008-09-10T20:12:00.000-04:00

I am watching O"Reilly with Obama. Just before starting Bill DEFENDED Obama against Lipstick on a Pig -- and said it would blowback on McCain.
This interview was actually great -- Tough questions with RESPECT for the candidate.
I would like to hear from my democratic friends. Given that this is FOX, what do you think of O"Reilly?

Does John McCain's status as a war hero still appl...

2008-09-10T20:10:00.000-04:00

Does John McCain's status as a war hero still apply given that he is using his VP Nominee as a human shield?

PS the looming Freddy and Fannie tsunami was being...

2008-09-10T20:09:00.000-04:00

PS the looming Freddy and Fannie tsunami was being talked about a month ago in the Street. My hunch is this is what doomed Senator Bayh, as Obama couldn't risk have a Fannie and Freddy protector on his ticket if they blew up.

Mike Huckabee agrees that the Republicans need to ...

2008-09-10T20:07:00.000-04:00

Mike Huckabee agrees that the Republicans need to stop piddling around and get back on issues. Maybe he should have been the Republican candidate after all.

Huckabee: "Let's shift back to the issues"

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee sent the following message to HuckPac supporters:

"Last night, while on Hannity & Colmes I cut Barack Obama some slack on his reference to "lipstick on a pig." Now I personally don't think he was referring to Gov. Palin, but if he was he should apologize immediately.
Almost twenty four hours into this new controversy and the accusations are continuing to fly from both campaigns. That's too bad."

"Let's shift back to the issues. Barack Obama released an education proposal yesterday that has plenty of faults. Lets talk about it instead. Republicans have been arguing correctly for choice in our schools and adding accountability. Lets spend our time and energy focusing on what we stand for. There is plenty to talk about."

Problem for the McCain-camp: If they give up Michi...

2008-09-10T20:06:00.000-04:00

Problem for the McCain-camp: If they give up Michigan and New Hampshire, they only have one very, very small path to 270 left. That path leads through 3-4 coin tosses and several likely but not safe McCain states. They cannot give up these 2 states and still keep an agressive, active attitude.

quantman said... "--IT's LOOKING more and more lik...

2008-09-10T20:03:00.000-04:00

quantman said...

"--IT's LOOKING more and more like
the stock market will REALLY REALLY crash in the next 4-6 weeks. Lehman is about to go under, or AT BEST sold for $2/share like Bear Stearns. -- IF that happens, pls be prepared for a cascade of bank failures starting with Washington Mutual. Maybe even Citigroup!!"

I expect 100 small and regional bank failures by year end ... cause: The wiping out of FNMA and FHLMC perferred stock.

On first glance this might appear to be a very bad field for McCain to play on. But Fannie and Freddie have been the two largest political contributors in the country. The money flows to both parties but more so to Democrats and the D's have big exposure via Schumer and Franks to the sleaze-fest that is their House and Senate Banking Committees. Bottomline it could break either way...but I agree with you it will be a major news event through the elections.

Is there a reason there hasn't been a polling upda...

2008-09-10T20:02:00.000-04:00

Is there a reason there hasn't been a polling update today?