Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 9/12

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-08T04:04:34.208-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-19T10:02:00.000-05:00

+You are right it is the ECONOMY STUPID and anyone...

2008-09-13T07:20:00.000-04:00

+You are right it is the ECONOMY STUPID and anyone who has ever taken Econ 101 knows that higher taxes on the rich and corporations result in much higher prices to consumers. The cost of high taxes on the super wealthy will hurt the poor far more than help.+

Ooh. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing, my friend. Let's try a little Econ 201:
Economies need to be defended. They also need strong infrastructure to grow. It takes money.
If you spend massively while cutting taxes - the Bush economic doctrine if you will - you create massive deficits which must be financed. To attract capital interest rates must rise or the currency devalue. Voila, much higher prices to consumers (and choking off of all investment in future economic growth)

Just my "humble" opinions, as they say:She got the...

2008-09-13T04:57:00.000-04:00

Just my "humble" opinions, as they say:

She got the "Bridge to Nowhere" question and she did fine with it.

She didn't dig herself a hole, no. She didn't really address the specific question directly either, though.

If the only criticism is that she changed her mind, well that is not going to hurt her.

My memories are foggy. I seem to recall from an election four years ago that "flip-flopping" is right up there with feeding toddlers angel dust.

I tended to disagree.

I don't think having changed her mind will hurt her. But, she "changed her mind" about something that she later touted as Reason Numero Uno she makes a a fine Mrs. Maverick. That may well take some sheen off with some voters.

I am mystified as to why the left thinks this "supported it before opposing it" is a workable attack.

It's more about the "thanks, but no thanks line" and her reasons for discontinuing her support.
If someone offers me a piece of cake, and I say "thanks but no thanks", you typically won't fine me with a forkful of sweetness five seconds later.

When you change your mind to make the right decision, that is not a negative.

The Kerry campaign could have really used that sort of insight -- where were you four years ago? ;)

What makes it fishy is not "she changed her mind".
Rather it is that she (arguably) had her mind changed for her.
I had a situation like this in my youth:

Me: "Mom, I want $5,000 for a car."
Mom: "You can't have it."
Me: "Fine, then I don't want it."

Biden and Obama voted for the bridge, multiple times.

Irrelevant.
If Obama had listed "I opposed it" as a major qualification to be elected, then I would understand you point.

She could have spent the money on the bridge. She simply chose to spend it elsewhere.

"Thanks, but thanks"?

The Dems are walking down a blind alley on this one when everybody learns that Biden and Obama favored that bridge over aid to Katrina victims.

Cite this sucker.
You have to back up your gross oversimplifications/radical distortions.

Well, you don't have to. That makes it far easier to spew nonsense.

John McCain favored funding the the Iraq War over helping our war veterans.

See? Fun. And pointless!

This interview , similar to many others that McCai...

2008-09-13T04:35:00.000-04:00

This interview , similar to many others that McCain has given where he is reaching out to those who dislike him the most.
It is an indication of his maverick status and deep belief that he wants to be the President of ALL Americans. It would be like Obama going to an NRA meeting.

No, it would be like Obama going on the O'Reilly factor on the Fox News Channel. Which he did.

This is depressing.. I sure hope this is just a sh...

2008-09-13T00:52:00.000-04:00

This is depressing.. I sure hope this is just a short term bump.

If not, let's hope the checks and balances still in place will keep the jerks from doing too much harm.

But they will be busy ripping those down so when it's Palien's turn to be Pres. it will be nice and easy to screw us all.

Matt J.H. is the best or worst of concern trolls, ...

2008-09-12T21:58:00.000-04:00

Matt J.H. is the best or worst of concern trolls, depending I suppose on how you look at it.

Either way, Obama supoorter or McCain supporter, I'd suggest just skipping over what he says. His "discourse" is starting to look eerily familiar to what drove me away from Politico and to 538 in the first place.

The comments on this site are only useful insofar as they avoid becoming constantly partisan above analytical. I've seen good analysis from both sides, so can we keep that aspect up as much as possible?

"Matt Damon was right about Palin and the dinosaur...

2008-09-12T21:41:00.000-04:00

"Matt Damon was right about Palin and the dinosaurs. Madonna and Barbara Streisand are also on our side."

I would be VERY concerned if this actually made me feel "better" about US politics.

Full on progressive Dem/Obama fan here, and I'd have to say that I totally agree. I'm REALLY sick of celeb commentary on politics, regardless of what side they're on.

In response to this commentMike said..."I'm losing...

2008-09-12T20:26:00.000-04:00

In response to this comment

Mike said...
"I'm losing what little faith I had in this country."

So you argee with Michelle Obama in that you only have any pride in our county when Obama is winning elections? It is no wonder the left doesn't have the guts to win a war, they don't have the faith in our own county to win an election.
I love this county, no matter who wins this election, no matter who wins this war, because I believe in its underlying principles. Do you?

Mike, the war in Iraq has nothing to do with the underlying principles of our country. Don't try to give the b.s. answer that we went there to free Iraq from Saddam and give Iraqis their deserved freedom! If that were the case why didn't Bush invade N. Korea and other authoritarian regimes? Come on buddy don't deny the obvious.

Nate's Super Tracker graph looks a bit like a "hea...

2008-09-12T20:14:00.000-04:00

Nate's Super Tracker graph looks a bit like a "head and shoulders" pattern from stock technical analysis, or the profile of a baboon (tilt head to left). It's the neckline that scares me.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-...

2008-09-12T19:56:00.000-04:00

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx

From Gallup: "If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives."

Guys this makes me nervous. The angry, extremist approach is not working. Who here can sway an uncommitted voter? It's not through blogging about how stupid our opponents are.

Second thoughts anyone? I am sure that some of the...

2008-09-12T19:54:00.000-04:00

Second thoughts anyone? I am sure that some of the Superdelegates are experiencing buyer's remorse. The honeymoon is over; and many democrats are finally begininning to realize that they erred in nominating Senator Obama. Polls don't lie....and that's not even taking into consideration the "Tom Bradley Effect." It appears as if we democrats have handed the election to John McCain and Pistol Packin' Mama Palin!

As the expression goes, "screw up once, shame on you, screw up twice shame on me." In the case of the democrats, "screw up 100 times and we still don't learn."

Good example of how to get a point across without ...

2008-09-12T19:52:00.000-04:00

Good example of how to get a point across without sounding incredibly bitter or snobby...

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OTliMTNiZjg5ZDEwZWNiZDYwZWFjN2JlNjNjNjkxZmM=

People have to keep the faith - Obama is going to ...

2008-09-12T19:49:00.000-04:00

People have to keep the faith - Obama is going to win this ...
Its going to be very nerve racking all the way until the very end, and there will be people who will doubt along the way - perhaps all the way to 11/4 .
But he is going to pull through .

And it will be the greatest election victory in the history of the United States .

But people, definitely have some faith .

One more thing: if, and I mean IF, Mccain and Pailn win the election it is going to be the end of America`s great power in the world as the country is at a crossroads - so is the world .

The balance of power is shifting in terms of global finance, access to energy and raw materials, right before our eyes and few seem to be fully aware of it ...

Obviously, Palin is not aware of it and the Republican / special interests (Oil, Aerospace/Defence, Pharmaceuticals) party are in denial with their call for more tax cuts and the ridiculous "drill baby drill" (I know that one is pleasing the oil companies) and the "we are all Georgians" nonsense .

Mccain might be aware although he is selling his soul to win the election and will be a pawn if elected - or, face it, gradually ineffective as age wears him down .

I just wish middle America was aware of this ...

In a sense you can`t blame them because the world is changing so fast it is hard for most people to keep up with it and envision where everything is going ...

Anyway, keep the faith people; Palin`s interview was ridiculous yesterday and the people who are aware of what is going on will come out in droves to make sure America makes the right choice and on 11/4 you will be in for a big surprise .

And you will feel hope again ...

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks." -M...

2008-09-12T19:46:00.000-04:00

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks." -MidPointMan

This might be the silliest thing I've seen written on this thread, and that's pretty impressive. If you want to look at... I dunno, the numbers generated on this site... you could easily convention bounces are predicted to last several weeks.

The silly partisan bickering is one thing. But please, at least pretend you didn't just find this site five minutes ago.

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks. "Th...

2008-09-12T19:18:00.000-04:00

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks. "

There are two horrible things wrong with this sentence that make you look like a fool. Wanna guess before I tell you?

two quick points about washington.Sarah Palin' fam...

2008-09-12T19:12:00.000-04:00

two quick points about washington.
Sarah Palin' family is from Richland, WA, so she has strong state ties.
Wa and Alaska are very connected economically. They are "BFF".
I think the poll is accurate.

Don't lose hope!The Empire may have struck back, b...

2008-09-12T18:57:00.000-04:00

Don't lose hope!

The Empire may have struck back, but we still have an entire movie left to go!

http://tinyurl.com/anewhope

To be honest I think this is over pending some sor...

2008-09-12T18:43:00.000-04:00

To be honest I think this is over pending some sort of huge surprise in the world or a huge surprise in the debates.

The O-Campaign does not seem to even be bothering to get any opinions other than itselfs on how to do this.

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks."Wow...

2008-09-12T18:19:00.000-04:00

"Convention bounces do not last several weeks."

Wow...IT'S ONLY BEEN ONE WEEK!!! Geez, the McCain supporters seem to be losing their grasp of time.

Nate: Let's leave Ohio out of this for a moment. I...

2008-09-12T18:16:00.000-04:00

Nate: Let's leave Ohio out of this for a moment. If Obama wins Ohio he takes the election. But Ohio is hard, the most likely of any state to suffer from a Shy Torry effect. Assume he doesn't.

It looks increasingly to me like the race is coming down to NM and CO. We need more polling in NM. I don't understand how your model has Obama losing CO and winning NM. Obama needs to win both of those states to win the election. Recent polls look promising in CO, unnerving in NM. Lose either one and in my opinion he loses (if he loses CO or NM he'll certainly lose Ohio).

Talk about smart to hold the convention in Denver. That could turn out to be Obama's saving move. But we need more info on whether that Ras poll in NM is an outlier, or what's going on down there.

It is hard to imagine that as time goes on the ele...

2008-09-12T18:14:00.000-04:00

It is hard to imagine that as time goes on the electorate will swing strongly to Obama without a major, game-changing event. There's a reason Republicans finish strong historically, and there's no reason to think this year will be different. Obama should be up 10 points right now in the polls to pull this out. He will need to absolutely trounce McCain in the debates to regain the momentum. The Obama team is crazy to be focusing so much energy on Sarah Palin.

Convention bounces do not last several weeks. Tha...

2008-09-12T18:12:00.000-04:00

Convention bounces do not last several weeks.

That kind of sustained momentum is due to other things.

Obama was ahead by 2-3 points going into his VP pick and convention, surged to nearly a 7-8 point lead, and is now behind by roughly 2-3 points.

Obama got 6 points, and McCain got 11 points for a net gain of 5 points for McCain.

McCain's lead was probably 4 points at the peak, but we have seen some stability for several days now.

It is a 1-2 point spread among RV's and a 3-4 point spread among LV's.

Please, for the love of all that is holy, will the...

2008-09-12T18:08:00.000-04:00

Please, for the love of all that is holy, will the baseball metaphors for every single appearance by either campaign please end?

If McCain's performance on "The View" is any indic...

2008-09-12T18:06:00.000-04:00

If McCain's performance on "The View" is any indication, Obama has a lot to worry about in the debates.

It was 4 on 1 during that show and McCain just knocked it out of the park.

Every line of attack was batted down pretty summarily.

I think he scored points because he locked horns with Barbara Walters and came away looking fine.

This is no sleepy old man. Obama better bring his A game to the party.