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2009-02-14T01:56:00.000-05:00

Besides the SurveyUSA polls, there are other strat...

2008-07-18T21:07:00.000-04:00

Besides the SurveyUSA polls, there are other strategic reasons that Huckabee would be good for McCain.

There have been five bellwether states - OH, MO, LA, KY, and AR - that have correctly predicted the winner of the General Election for each of the past eight elections (dating back to 1976). In the GOP Primaries, Huckabee won the popular vote in two of them (AR and LA), coming in second to McCain in the other three. McCain won the popular vote in three of them (OH, MO and KY), coming in second to Huckabee in the other two. The margin between the two in the state of MO was extremely narrow. And in the state of KY, Huckabee even managed to come in second to John McCain three and a half months after he suspended his campaign and endorsed McCain.

If put on the same ticket, their combined popularity in these five states would be a great advantage for Senator McCain.

Several of the bloggers here have said that Huckab...

2008-07-18T21:01:00.000-04:00

Several of the bloggers here have said that Huckabee can't carry key swing states such as PA, OH, CO, NM, OR, NH, VA, MI, or IA.

HE CAN!

How do I know? Survey USA took a series of polls to determine the VP candidate (out of Huckabee, Lieberman, Pawlenty, and Romney) who would help John McCain the most. They took polls in 5 out of the 9 states I listed above. Here are the results:

PA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5

OH -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b03c08ab-30b9-463d-8be2-5cb118e05b74

OR -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=163a037f-756a-4c51-9e4a-cd6e48aa0f44

VA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=9901f8fc-034e-4a1d-ab36-f6e5c918614e

IA -
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=34d61abd-3c0a-441c-b337-262ffcf3489a

In every case listed here, Huckabee did best (except VA, where he was practically tied with Romney.)

But the pattern doesn't end there. Altogether, SurveryUSA took polls in the following states: PA, NM, VA, CA, OH, IA, KS, WI, NE, OR, NY, MA, MN, AL, KY, and MO. In almost every case Huckabee did best!!!

John Peterson said... Nobody has mentioned the rea...

2008-07-18T05:20:00.000-04:00

John Peterson said...

Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabee. His foreign policy proposals are... naive and ignorant...

Naive like 'we'll be greated as liberators?'

or ignorant like 'Iran (Shia) is training Al-Quaida (Sunni)'?

If so, you are right, he'd definitely lose - people need a leader who won't make such elementary mistakes.

I think because the Republicans were pretty divide...

2008-07-17T22:37:00.000-04:00

I think because the Republicans were pretty divided during the primaries, allowing McCain to win, and the Democrats who fought it out until the end, that this election cycle, the VP matters quite a lot. If you did not vote for your parties nominee, and are disappointed or angry, then you are waiting to see who he picks as his VP.

I think Huckabee would be a great VP. During the primaries, as the voters got to know him, they liked him better and better. But because he did not have the money, he was not able to do enough commercials and mail flyers to get his policy points across. I think Huckabee is pretty main stream on his religious beliefs. He did not govern Arkansas as a religious kook. He did, however, work across party lines, in an all democratic state, to get the tough stuff done for the people of his state. He was a governor for the people. He stands by his convictions and does what he thinks is right, not what the establishment is telling him to do. Huckabee is also forward thinking. He talked about kitchen table issues long before any other Republican would say that the economy was bad. He talked about being energy independent within 10 years as we were paying the terrorist every time we filled up at the pump. He said that we should work on infrastructure instead of giving out rebate checks as we were helping the Chinese economy by borrowing from them and purchasing their products. Huckabee helps McCain on the economic issues, helps in states like MI, OH, PA, VA, IA because he connects with the voters who are struggling with the economy.

on the democratic side, I like Rendell and Bayh for VP.

Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabe...

2008-07-17T01:56:00.000-04:00

Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabee. His foreign policy proposals are as naive and ignorant as Obama's-- if McCain is to push his edge in national security, it can only hurt to have a VP who is saying the same silly things as his opponent.

On topic: I agree with the Huckabee VP assesment,...

2008-07-16T17:31:00.000-04:00

On topic: I agree with the Huckabee VP assesment, and like someone suggested, I don't think Huckabee's positions are as outside the mainstream as assumed many times. People who blog for hours a day, political pundits, media types, Beltway types, academics, etc. need to get out into 'flyover country' more or they would know this.

About the language issue: Mason, when I read your last post it made the opposite point to me than what you intended to make.

Your post pointed out the fact that Hispanic sub-contractors/laborer/gardeners/maids/half of the patients in hospital emergency rooms/thousands of students, etc. are not assimilating.

They are not learning English like immigrants in the past have done. They don’t have to. They expect us to learn Spanish if we want to communicate with them. Our government and businesses and schools are enabling Hispanic immigrants not to have to learn English.

The historic strength and prosperity of the United States was born of the idea communicated by E Pluribus Unum, many uniting into one. Out of many, one. The beauty of American culture is Unity in Diversity. Hundreds of cultures have come together and have been transformed into one uniquely American culture - with one common language.

Being bi-lingual is a worthy goal for any individual but we must absolutely fight to keep one common language if we are to remain E Pluribus Unum, and the greatest nation on earth.

Annon-You're the fool and clearly not a home owner...

2008-07-16T14:35:00.000-04:00

Annon-
You're the fool and clearly not a home owner. Try talking to a (legal or illegal)Hispanic sub-contractor/laborer/gardener/maid in only English and see what you get. Then try it in English and Spanish. Better yet, try supervising those workers, or treating them as patients. I guarentee you'll get your desired result or information a lot quicker with the latter than the former. Being able to quickly and efficiently communicate with people is important. Many US companies get this. Go down to your local Lowes or Home Depot and take a look around. It might take a little bit for your eyes to adjust to it, but you'll see it: Spanish. Everywhere. It will be in the same typeface as the English and about two points smaller, but it will be omnipresent, because the people who run those places know the linguistic abilities of the people who spend the money in the stores.

And 90%? I laugh at your made up stat. Nearly everyone in the south-west finds themself in the situation I've discribed above once or twice a year, and much, much, more if they're in certain field and/or performing certain tasks. That would be a region including CA and TX, which account for about 20% of the US pop alone. Add to that the people who do travel (~20% judging by passport figures) and vastly underestimating the utility of bilinguality to the US population.

"What would an "overwhelming" turnout consist of? ...

2008-07-16T12:37:00.000-04:00

"What would an "overwhelming" turnout consist of? General election turnout is usually a bit more than 50% of theoretically eligible voters. Do we consider 55% to be "overwhelming"? 57%? 60%? Frankly, all those percentages would be considered truly pathetic in European countries, for example."

Electoral boards hire poll workers, set up machines and establish procedures based on expected turnout. If you're expecting a 5% turnout in a 2000 voter precinct, you get 4 or 5 workers, 4 machines (tell them to only set up 2), and use the opportunity to test alternate procedures. If you expect a 60% turnout, you get 10-12 workers, set up all 4 machines, and just concentrate on keeping your head above water. But if you expect 60% and you get 70%, you now have an hour-long line all day.

This is the best website out there for real good i...

2008-07-16T12:13:00.000-04:00

This is the best website out there for real good information about the polls. I visit every day though I admit half of it goes over my fairly educated head. The comments need to be reviewed and purged. Or a thread needs to be opened each day for those who have nothing better to do but to clutter up the site. How about a, "I heard he is a Muslim" please comment in Spanish or Malay or some other language option so the rest of us can read the real comments. Freedom of Speech should not mean the freedom to make an idiot of yourself over and over again. this is a great website, fantastic, the best, now go to some other place to comment on your nonsense or open a thread and just prattle in that so we can read.

Mason, you dumb*ss!You just described about 90% of...

2008-07-16T09:27:00.001-04:00

Mason, you dumb*ss!

You just described about 90% of Americans - they don't travel (overseas, that is), they rarely are in need of speaking to people who only speak a non-English language, and most don't care about language origin.

Get a clue.

Mason, you dumb*ss!You just described about 90% of...

2008-07-16T09:27:00.000-04:00

...Comparing the learning of Spanish (which, if yo...

2008-07-16T00:11:00.000-04:00

...Comparing the learning of Spanish (which, if you already are fluent in one language - English - makes the learning of a second language completely vestigial)...

Only if you, you know, never travel, need to speak with someone who only speaks a non-English language, or have never wondered why language is the way it is.

anonymous said:MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one match...

2008-07-15T22:33:00.000-04:00

anonymous said:

MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one matchup with Franken

And Rassmussen has Franken up by 2, right?

Anything in their methodology or the questions they ask that would account for this?

my advice for the GOP: dump McCain just before the...

2008-07-15T20:37:00.000-04:00

my advice for the GOP: dump McCain just before the convention. Run Huck, and for number two, pick some economist.

The NY Times poll says Obama gets 37% of the white...

2008-07-15T20:18:00.000-04:00

The NY Times poll says Obama gets 37% of the white vote and McCain gets 46%. It also says that only 30% of whites have a favorable opinion of Obama. I find these results low. Only 30% of whites like Obama??? And only 24% of whites like Michelle Obama. All these numbers seem awfully low, even though Obama still has a +6 advantage overall. Someone explain??

Nick: You probably mean Bahasa Indonesia - Bahasa ...

2008-07-15T20:08:00.001-04:00

Nick: You probably mean Bahasa Indonesia - Bahasa just means language in Malay.
On the issue, I think you are right. I don't believe that public Indonesian schools were teaching in English some 40 years ago, so he should have learned quite some Bahasa Inonesia there (he will probably also know a few Sundanese words, which is the local language in West Java / Jakarta).

Barack Obama does indeed speak Indonesian (Bahasa)...

2008-07-15T20:08:00.000-04:00

Barack Obama does indeed speak Indonesian (Bahasa)

Pete Kent: (he admitted he cannot speak another la...

2008-07-15T20:01:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent: (he admitted he cannot speak another language

He did? Are you sure he didn't say he couldn't speak Spanish? I coulda sworn he spoke pretty good Bahasa.

Hillary will not win the nomination even if most o...

2008-07-15T19:43:00.000-04:00

Hillary will not win the nomination even if most of the Delegates think she is the stronger candidate.

It is just too late.

Clinton has wound up her campaign team. Obama now has the best of them & most of her money raisers.

Hillary now has no organisation, no game plan, no volenteers. Nothing.

The only whay she could have a chance is if she could take over Obama's campaign intact. That will only happen if Obama is shot, photographed having sex with a gnu or something equaly unlikely.

What won't happen is the Delegates changing their minds on the strength of the polls. They are all loyal to the Party, and most are profesional & experienced. They know as well as I do that it is not a candidate that wins but a campaign team. Hillary never had a particularly good one, and now she has nothing.

Survey USA polls- Dole +12, Perdue +1, and McCain ...

2008-07-15T19:39:00.000-04:00

Survey USA polls- Dole +12, Perdue +1, and McCain +5 in NC

MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one matchup with Franken

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Hard Support vs. Soft Support

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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要到打工兼差、...

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情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

Besides the SurveyUSA polls, there are other strat...

Several of the bloggers here have said that Huckab...

John Peterson said... Nobody has mentioned the rea...

I think because the Republicans were pretty divide...

Nobody has mentioned the real problem with Huckabe...

On topic: I agree with the Huckabee VP assesment,...

Annon-You're the fool and clearly not a home owner...

"What would an "overwhelming" turnout consist of? ...

This is the best website out there for real good i...

Mason, you dumb*ss!You just described about 90% of...

Mason, you dumb*ss!You just described about 90% of...

...Comparing the learning of Spanish (which, if yo...

anonymous said:MN- Coleman +13 in one-on-one match...

my advice for the GOP: dump McCain just before the...

The NY Times poll says Obama gets 37% of the white...

Nick: You probably mean Bahasa Indonesia - Bahasa ...

Barack Obama does indeed speak Indonesian (Bahasa)...

Pete Kent: (he admitted he cannot speak another la...

Hillary will not win the nomination even if most o...

Survey USA polls- Dole +12, Perdue +1, and McCain ...