Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Polling Predicted Intimidation -- and Not Necessar...

@ dcouzin: Your analysis has mistakes too. Here is...

2009-06-25T21:00:09.324-04:00

@ dcouzin: Your analysis has mistakes too. Here is how I would analyze the data: First we have to take care of the 15% who didn't vote (as you know there was a 85% turnout). 7.6% have explicitly said they wouldn't vote. That leaves us with 7.4%. If we distribute this 7.4% between the other choices based on their proportion of the whole votes and re-normalize the results we will have:

Ahmadinejad: 36.58%
Mousavi: 14.72%
Karroubi: 1.84%
Rezaee: 0.97%
Refused: 16.34%
Don't know: 29.65%
Unknown (the sum of "refused" and "don't know"): 46%

Now, as you see, we don't know who the 46% would vote for. For Ahmadinejad to win by 63.62%, he has to get another 27%, i.e. about 58% of the unknown vote, which is possible but weird given that 1-opposition supporters have more reason to withhold their opinion that the hard-liners, 2-Those who wanted to vote for someone other than the incumbent are much more likely not to be sure who they wanted to vote for than those who had Ahmadinejad as one of their possible choices.

I have to concur that I enjoy Terror Free Tomorrow...

2009-06-19T15:13:46.278-04:00

I have to concur that I enjoy Terror Free Tomorrow's work, but everyone I know who has ever lived in Iran laughed at the very idea of taking the results of a poll seriously. As many of the Iranians I have met say "One Iranian, three opinions."

Here is some interesting political background info...

2009-06-18T19:27:15.674-04:00

Here is some interesting political background information from an informed source on what took place between the time of the Ballen/Doherty poll and the Iranian election:

http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/17/poll-indicating-legitimacy-of-ahmadinejads-victory-called-into-question/

"The only major doubt in the western media over significant fraud in Iran’s presidential election came with the publication of poll conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, a non-profit group. The poll’s findings – which had put Mahmoud Ahmadinejad comfortably ahead of Mir-Hossein Mousavi – were interpreted by some western commentators as an indication that Ahmadinejad’s “victory” may have been legitimate. In fact the poll, while it had interesting findings on public opinion, cannot be taken as a prediction of the election result..."

Nate Silver had done an unexpectedly poor job of a...

2009-06-16T16:37:27.823-04:00

Nate Silver had done an unexpectedly poor job of analyzing the TFT numbers.
Let's call the None+Refused+Don't Know responses Unknown. They total 50.05%. The vote turnout was 85%. So, let's subtract the 15% from the Unknown, and rescale. Now we have:
39.7% Ahmadinejad
16.0% Mousavi
2.0% Karroubi
1.1% Rezai
41.2% Unknown
If we now in our glorious ignorance distribute the Unknown equally between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi we get:
60.3% Ahmadinejad
36.6% Mousavi
3.1% Others
This is close to the publicized vote.

Matador at 306 illustrates precisely why we don't ...

2009-06-16T16:31:24.810-04:00

Matador at 306 illustrates precisely why we don't want socialized medicine in this country. He is clearly off his meds because his government will not give him anymore!

You forget how Franco and Mussolini ran their countries. Perhaps your relatives died in their cauldrons of despair. You are perhaps too young to recognize the siren song of the oppressor -- so seductive at first and so ruinous at the end.

Obama is a monster.

Now please crawl back into your European slum and weep your bitter tears over lost promise and potential. Your people are cynical and bored. Robbed of ambition by years of Obama-style governance.

We will not have it here. We are America! We threw out foreign oppression 200 plus years ago and will do so once more!

No Kenyan for a King!

petekent01 (on twitter)

A fair view of the numbers, but I'm still a bit un...

2009-06-16T09:18:02.891-04:00

A fair view of the numbers, but I'm still a bit underwhelmed by this article. I thought that Nate would add some math and show the probabilities for the official outcome, based on the numbers of the poll. How likely is it that Ahmadinejad would have captured so much of the undecideds that he would have got to 63%? Or how likely is it that Moussavi would have reached more than 50% (not to speak of more than 60%, as a rumour says)?

Again, a good, fair review, but it falls short of the sound statistical based facts that Nate is famous for. Yeah, I know, maybe that's a case of hard bigotry of high expectations, but still...

I'm not a political analyst (or anything similar, ...

2009-06-16T07:11:15.206-04:00

I'm not a political analyst (or anything similar, mind you), mind you, but I've said before (and likely will say again) that this sort of election is as reliable a a million Nigerian dollars and as worthwhile as a million Zimbabwe dollars.

Perhaps Hezbollah's electoral defeat in Lebanon al...

2009-06-16T02:35:35.389-04:00

Perhaps Hezbollah's electoral defeat in Lebanon alerted the Religious Conservative clique that runs Iran to the possibility that they, too, might lose an election. It may have stiffened their determination to avoid the same fate.

@ConcreteCement (aka PeteKent):
I'm noticing a new-born solicitude for the "starving" in your most recent posts here. You should be aware that the extension of Unemployment Benefits (and Food Stamps, I believe) in the Stimulus Package will greatly alleviate this problem among those who have lost jobs. I would note the irony in the resistance of a number of Republican governors to precisely this portion of the Stimulus Package.
Remind me to bring a push broom and a shovel should I ever feel impelled to follow you on Twitter.

this poll was taken before obama's speech in cairo...

2009-06-16T01:37:30.073-04:00

this poll was taken before obama's speech in cairo. perhaps it persuaded some portion of the voters to support mousavi.

One other issue needs to be pointed out, the age o...

2009-06-16T00:34:16.845-04:00

One other issue needs to be pointed out, the age of the poll. Here's part of my comment on another site about this poll that explains it:

---

The poll was conducted before the official election season had begun - from the 11th to the 20th of May, but the candidates were not even officially announced until the 20th. It wasn't until after that that all the debates started, the mass rallies, the controversy about Rahnavard's Ph.D and all the rest. I read this poll too back on the 8th of June when it was published and took good note of the fact that it was an old poll, but did find one interesting number: that 90% expressed an intent to vote.

Canada is another country that has an election season about a month long, and no pollster worth their salt would ever reference a month-old poll to ascertain the wishes of the voting public. Note 2006 for example where the Liberals started out fairly strong, but the Conservatives caught up with them and won at the end. There's simply too much that goes on during a campaign to make one-month-old polls any use.

That said, I do appreciate their conducting a poll from outside Iran, and found it useful for the period of time in which it was conducted...just not weeks later.

Opus 132… I’m not sure the MNSC wants Coleman to...

2009-06-16T00:21:28.628-04:00

Opus 132…

I’m not sure the MNSC wants Coleman to win, it’s just that I can’t think of any other reason for such a delay. The questioning June 1 was very straightforward, so it’s hard to see why a decision would require two weeks (plus) to formulate. As I said earlier, unless the court has seen fit to stray far from its mandate, an opinion could be written in two shakes, so putting two and two together I fear the worst.

I saw the piece in WaPo this morning and was somew...

2009-06-16T00:14:08.750-04:00

I saw the piece in WaPo this morning and was somewhat skeptical, it's great to see a thorough deconstruction of numbers and methods.

Two additional points:

1. It's my understanding that the Iranian political campaigns are quite short compared to those in America (months, not years), so it's possible that public opinion can change quite a bit in a few short weeks. Thus, that the poll was taken a mere month before the election date does not have the same significance as it would here.

2. Was this poll taken before or after the debate? Everything I have read indicates that the debates were very Damaging to Ahmadinejad politically and precipitated the reversal in public opinion.

Wow. I can't believe that everyone has missed the ...

2009-06-16T00:10:13.795-04:00

Wow. I can't believe that everyone has missed the most stunning revelation in this poll...4 out of 5 Iranians (that's 80% folks) want to vote for their Supreme Leader.
When do you ever see 80% on any poll.
This revolution is not going way.

Pragmatus- Your thoughts have occurred to me too....

2009-06-15T23:50:54.916-04:00

Pragmatus-

Your thoughts have occurred to me too.In asking the question I think I was trying to reassure myself.

Although not as pessimistic as you,I am getting worried.Particularly about the two recusals.

Why do you think that the Minnesota Supremes want Coleman to win?

@zinfan94: "The reason Ahmadinejad (and Khamenei) ...

2009-06-15T23:28:04.510-04:00

@zinfan94:
"The reason Ahmadinejad (and Khamenei) rigged this vote, was to keep Rafsanjani in check. But they may have goofed up... It is possible that Rafsanjani is threatening to remove Khamenei as Supreme Leader (Rafsanjani heads up the committee that can replace the Supreme Leader). The powerful demonstrations showing support for fair elections, has weakened Khamenei's standing."

This is essentially what I've sort of been thinking. Rafsanjani might try to power play the establishment. The question is: Will he reform? Will he submit to elections or give up his powers? As far as I know, somewhat.

When public opinion polling began to be common in ...

2009-06-15T21:30:26.533-04:00

When public opinion polling began to be common in the Soviet Union in the 1980s -- during the period of Gorbachev's perestroika (restructuring) and glasnost' (openness) -- researchers discovered that the public responded with "no opinion" or "don't know" at a very high rate (25-40% was common).

Researchers did not attribute this to intimidation -- as Nate does for the DK's in Iran -- but instead to the fact that a lot of people just weren't used to being asked their "own opinion." In effect, they didn't have formulated or crystallized opinions on many subjects.

Of course, for many there was some "learned" sense of intimidation -- perhaps better understood as "caution" based on history. In a private conversation among family and close friends (but perhaps not on the street or in public settings) they said what they thought. But to have a "public" opinion or to strike up a candid conversation with a stranger on the bus, or any person in authority, wasn't necessarily a good idea. And so people had private opinions but not public ones.

For the survey that Nate reviews, who do the respondents think they're talking to? Who thinks talking over the telephone is anonymous or assured of confidentiality? Even without any direct intimidation, people have probably learned not to speak frankly with strangers, even to polite ones who call out of nowhere to ask their opinion.

This is GREAT NEWS!! For the Pahlavi Family!! w...

2009-06-15T20:55:27.863-04:00

This is GREAT NEWS!! For the Pahlavi Family!!

wv: aninia: at least one of the posters to this site is aninia.

PeteKent... Your crack bills must be enormous. ...

2009-06-15T20:53:24.500-04:00

PeteKent...

Your crack bills must be enormous. Only a crackhead could spew as much empty crap as you do, for paragraph after paragraph.

Opus 132...

The delay in the Minnesota Supreme Court decision might be an ominous sign. When a decision is simple and logical, it can be rendered without much fuss, but when a decision reflects the jurists' personal prejudices (i.e. they "legislate from the bench") then they have to take their time to formulate their arguments so that they make some kind of sense. I'm afraid that's what might be happening here. The MNSC wants the Republican to win, but to do so will require an enormous upheaval of law, precedent and common sense, so they are taking their time. My guess is that they will "legislate" that the way MN holds its elections is unconstitutional, and therefore there will need to be a revote in the Senate race, so all their focus now is on preemptively trying to tamp down the expected uproar. Otherwise the MNSC could have spewed out a report in fifteen minutes. All they would have needed to say was "Court upholds findings of Special Elections Court" and be done with it.

Any political junkie worth his salt knows that an ...

2009-06-15T20:39:24.151-04:00

Any political junkie worth his salt knows that an incumbent, with only 34% of the electorate saying they're willing to vote for him a month away from the vote, is toast. I read that poll before the election and thought Ahmadinejad was going down.

PeteKent- Iran is more important than the racist ...

2009-06-15T20:02:54.466-04:00

PeteKent-

Iran is more important than the racist hate you have displayed oin this sire for months.

Shut up and go fuck yourself.

Also ask your tight white ass why youwant a democracy to fail in Iran - because your racist hate of Obama outlasts common sense.

Gun, head, go do it now.

Now millions are starving and out of work, his eco...

2009-06-15T19:45:58.544-04:00

Now millions are starving and out of work, his economic Stim-U-Less an apparent failure. Yet he and his media are stressing "morning again in America". In fact the tent cities are coming. The homeless are multiplying as they have never before. The people's privation has never been greater. Yet he is not being held accountable.

Are you kidding me?

The banks are starting to repay their bailout money. They are loosening credit.

Of course morons like you think that if everything wasn't fixed on Jan 21, he failed. Things are slowly improving, and your naysaying isn't going to stop it. I know you jack off to the thought of the total economic collapse of America but you will be disappointed.

Of course, since every single prediction you have posted here has been proved wrong, I would only be nervous about our future if you saw any sunlight at all.

The only failure here is that of trickle-down policies and other repressive economic policies of the republican party..

Obama's fascistic impulses have been on display si...

2009-06-15T19:41:42.776-04:00

Obama's fascistic impulses have been on display since his inauguration when he began to systematically take direct control of US business and begin to exert real dominance over decision making and business leadership. This is the very essence of fascism.

PK, you are a total dumbass.

If the federal government bailed out the auto companies(done on Bush's watch by the way, guess Bush is a fascist also), then those companies would be dead, and tens of thousands out of work.

The taxpayer is a majority shareholder. If you had bailed out the car companies, don't you think you should have say in how it is run until you at least recoup your investment?

So what is the difference?

You still don't understand the difference between socialists and fascists.

If Hitler had called his party the National Free Market Party, would it matter?

Just like when a helpless, innocent civilian wande...

2009-06-15T19:37:16.365-04:00

Just like when a helpless, innocent civilian wanders down a dark and dangerous alley and is murdered by some thug. It's not their fault they were murdered. That lies with the offender. They may have been unwise to go where they did, but it's not their fault.

Please get over your Bush Derangement Syndrome soon, beavis. Its contagious effects make the entire country sicker.

Bush wasn't an innocent person walking down a dark alley. He is the person standing across the street that saw the thugs entry the alley 10 minutes before the innocent persona and did nothing but smile and wave.

Once Bush and Cheney are standing trial for war crimes and crimes against the constitution, then I will say nothing about it.

It is pathetic dumbasses like you who cheered on the illegal, immoral and dangerous actions of the previous administration that gave them the power to do so.

@y2fizzy: Things are different in a dictatorship. ...

2009-06-15T19:30:30.609-04:00

@y2fizzy: Things are different in a dictatorship. People don't speak their mind too easily, being much more distrustful (and with reason). So if 50% didn't specify their vote, there's a good chance it's because they don't want to specify, not because they didn't vote.

Iranian People in general and anti-government peo...

2009-06-15T18:50:36.772-04:00

Iranian People in general and anti-government people specifically are suspicious of phone calls, they would always assume the worst (government intelligence agencies) so given this cultural behavior people who refused to answer, I would assume would vote for a reformist candidate (either one) on the other hand if I am voting for a incumbent conservative my feelings would have been hardened by a month to election.