Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Iowa

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2009-01-19T08:16:00.000-05:00

Guys, michael is totally right. Mccain led in a z...

2008-09-24T00:12:00.000-04:00

Guys, michael is totally right. Mccain led in a zogby interactive poll on sept. 11th! Shit, PA is leaning mccain now!

You have to remember technical analysis ignores fu...

2008-09-23T22:57:00.000-04:00

You have to remember technical analysis ignores fundmanetals. There are two fundamentals being completely ignored, though I don't blame Nate. 1) This country is polarized down the middle. If 1 candidate is up 5 points, there's a much better chance that they'll lose their 5 point lead back to even than add 5 points to make it a 10 point lead. Trend has the opposite effect. 2) The debates do matter. In 10 days Nate's model has gone from McCain 61% to win to OBama 74%. Intrade has fluctuated from about 46-52%. 6 point swing in Intrade, 35 point swing in Nate's model. The truth is certainly somewhere in between.

Translation: Nate forgot to add his latest Obama-s...

2008-09-23T22:43:00.000-04:00

Translation: Nate forgot to add his latest Obama-slanted tweak. 571 EVs will be the new number

"Indiana bluer than OH(!!!)"Indiana is "white", OH...

2008-09-23T22:42:00.004-04:00

"Indiana bluer than OH(!!!)"

Indiana is "white", OH is pale blue.

I still think this model is overcompensating in Obama's direction, but it will wash out if things stabilize.

On the other hand, if the McCain campaign keeps growing new feet only to shoot them on a daily basis, anything is possible.

Ok good I didn't think that could be anywhere near...

2008-09-23T22:42:00.003-04:00

Ok good I didn't think that could be anywhere near accurate!!

"If this model is anywhere near accurate as Nate s...

2008-09-23T22:42:00.002-04:00

"If this model is anywhere near accurate as Nate says it is"

Then there's a fortune to be made on Intrade. I'm tempted :)

Nate posted an OOPS! Ignore the numbers for now, t...

2008-09-23T22:42:00.001-04:00

Nate posted an OOPS! Ignore the numbers for now, there was a code error.

So you're saying it's basically at the line betwee...

2008-09-23T22:42:00.000-04:00

So you're saying it's basically at the line between a 2004-style election and a 1996-style election right now? But only barely?

If we see a move back toward McCain of more than a...

2008-09-23T22:41:00.000-04:00

If we see a move back toward McCain of more than about a point, the model will start to discount the landslide scenario and we'll see things fall back to where they "feel" like they should be.

But if the next big move is toward Obama even more, all heck breaks loose.

If this model is anywhere near accurate as Nate sa...

2008-09-23T22:40:00.000-04:00

If this model is anywhere near accurate as Nate says it is (I have no reason to doubt his math abilities, and don't believe his partisanship influences it ) McCain is FUBAR'd

I don´t see Obama winning Indiana, but if it´s a t...

2008-09-23T22:39:00.000-04:00

I don´t see Obama winning Indiana, but if it´s a toss-up this is a big trouble for McCain.

Thanks for explaining that. I'm not a very good st...

2008-09-23T22:38:00.001-04:00

Thanks for explaining that. I'm not a very good stats guy.

"Inkstain you mean that the polls move as a result...

2008-09-23T22:38:00.000-04:00

"Inkstain you mean that the polls move as a result of a feeling of inevitability?"

Yep. Remember this model moves based on history. When it sees a sharp move toward Obama with a month and a half to go, it starts to see a chance that the election turns into a 1980, 1988 or 1996.

I'm not surprised that Indiana is catching up with...

2008-09-23T22:37:00.001-04:00

I'm not surprised that Indiana is catching up with Ohio; Obama's polling in Indiana hasn't been that far behind his Ohio showing.

err, make that "nearly double' the city's populati...

2008-09-23T22:37:00.000-04:00

err, make that "nearly double' the city's population.

Philly City: ~1.4M
Suburbs: ~2.5Mish

Va Con, About FL - Nate probably weights the polls...

2008-09-23T22:36:00.001-04:00

Va Con,

About FL - Nate probably weights the polls differently than RCP does, and the trend is pushing it up. The polling average shows McCain +3, but after trend adjustments and regression it's Obama +0.4. So, it's still a grain of salt thing. I think FL is more likely to flip than OH though, at this point.

He now has a 47% chance of winning Indiana?

2008-09-23T22:36:00.000-04:00

He now has a 47% chance of winning Indiana?

VC, thank you and filistro for the site.

2008-09-23T22:35:00.001-04:00

VC, thank you and filistro for the site.

Inkstain you mean that the polls move as a result ...

2008-09-23T22:35:00.000-04:00

Inkstain you mean that the polls move as a result of a feeling of inevitability?

The key to winning Pennsylvania is winning convinc...

2008-09-23T22:34:00.004-04:00

The key to winning Pennsylvania is winning convincingly in the Philly suburbs.

Everyone knows he's going to dominate Philadelphia City, but people forget that the surrounding 4 counties account for more than double the city population.

The margin he puts up in Delaware County, Chester County, Montgomery County, and Bucks County will determine if he wins the state.

Tito sure thing.

2008-09-23T22:34:00.003-04:00

Tito sure thing.

ahh i didnt realize nate was updating.Sometimes Na...

2008-09-23T22:34:00.002-04:00

ahh i didnt realize nate was updating.

Sometimes Nate updates, and then posts; sometimes he posts, and then updates.

what is the forum website?

2008-09-23T22:34:00.001-04:00

what is the forum website?

Maybe if Obama ignores Ohio completely, his number...

2008-09-23T22:34:00.000-04:00

Maybe if Obama ignores Ohio completely, his numbers there might not be affected at all for some counter-intuitive reason we don't understand. And then those staffers could be transferred to Virginia and North Carolina.