Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: What's Left - Senate Version

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2009-10-02T06:55:50.977-04:00

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2009-08-28T03:22:15.375-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:07:00.000-05:00

I think the Alaska Senate race will go badly for M...

2008-11-05T19:55:00.000-05:00

I think the Alaska Senate race will go badly for Mark Begich. He is 3600 votes behind. Yes,I know there are 1000's of uncounted votes from absentee and early voters but I think they include a lot of overseas military who vote red more then blue.

I think the polsters; national and local( Dittman, Republican, and Ivan Moore, Democrat) overlooked the Queen Palin of North Factor. She brought more Wasilla Hillbillys to the voting booth then ever before.

I still can not belive we will send a convicted felon to the Senate, But I fear thats the case.

Sorry, Sean, but I think you've underestimated the...

2008-11-05T14:55:00.000-05:00

Sorry, Sean, but I think you've underestimated the gullibility of the Alaskan public. Begich/Stevens is neck-and-neck with 99% of precincts reporting. Our local NBC affiliate seems to have the most up-to-date numbers.
http://www.ktuu.com/

Beyond simple name recognition and fear of the unknown, I'd say that the pollsters' samples may have under-weighted Alaska's rural population, which are pretty heavily Republican (or at least their voting patterns suggest that the sleazeball you know is better than the potential sleazeball you don't know.) Most of those villages aren't on the road system, and not everybody has a phone out there (some villages are still trying to get running water), so they'd be easy to under-sample.

As of just after 11pm, when according to The Orego...

2008-11-05T02:46:00.000-05:00

As of just after 11pm, when according to The Oregonian's site Merkley(D), Smith(R),
Brownlow(Constitution) were at
424,285 416,845 49,592

using that page's breakdown of what percent of each county has reported, I perhaps naively assumed the rest of each county would vote in the same proportion as those reported, yielding

935,440 812,731 96,070
50.7% 44.1% 5.2%

(I left in the anomaly that the page reports that Sherman County had already reported 102% of its vote, letting the method lop off those supposed extra 2% of voters. Only 1011 had voted in that county, so I didn't worry.)

So that's my prediction for the ultimate result. Even if the assumptions aren't spot-on, the prediction is so clear as to inspire confidence.

stevena

Nate and Sean,You made a home for all of us. Than...

2008-11-05T01:31:00.000-05:00

Nate and Sean,

You made a home for all of us. Thank you.

Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.

The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.

No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.

It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.

Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.

My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.

I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .

While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.

Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.

Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.

With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.

He must maintain his popularity.

So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.

I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.

It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.

Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.

I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.

I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.

A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.

You wind up idealizing such politicians.

It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.

I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!

She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).

This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.

Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.

Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.

Thank you and good night to one and all!

Popular vote 52-47 with lots of CA to go. Looks li...

2008-11-05T01:23:00.000-05:00

Popular vote 52-47 with lots of CA to go.

Looks like Nate's popular vote prediction will be close as well as the electoral count.

I guess a community organizer is a lot like a smal...

2008-11-05T01:21:00.000-05:00

I guess a community organizer is a lot like a small town mayor..except we know how to win elections!!!!

PeterKent, do us all a favor and please get run over by a bus.

Oregon's senate race looks close, but most of the ...

2008-11-05T01:15:00.000-05:00

Oregon's senate race looks close, but most of the outstanding votes come from heavily Democratic areas, so I put Merkley over Smith. Same dynamic occurred in 2002 Governor's race, where Kulongoski looked periously close to losing, but staff were serene because they saw where the votes still hadn't been counted.

Ironically, Georgia turned indeed out to be the bi...

2008-11-05T01:13:00.000-05:00

Ironically, Georgia turned indeed out to be the big surprise of the election, just not as expected. That it would be called so soon for McCain was bewildering for a second and astonishing after the early voters reports. Ah, what the heck, who cares now?

Looks like Indiana will be Nate's only mishit (but waiting for Montana). Congrats, Mister Silver, you're in the big league know. Everyone who's not turning to you for election projection in future is just silly.

'nough said.

Thanks for all you've done, guys.

2008-11-05T01:11:00.000-05:00

Thanks for all you've done, guys.

Wow...NC is so freaking close. Like a 12,000 vote ...

2008-11-05T00:55:00.001-05:00

Wow...NC is so freaking close. Like a 12,000 vote difference with 99% reporting.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25362802

There were about 3.2M votes in GA in 2004. There a...

2008-11-05T00:55:00.000-05:00

There were about 3.2M votes in GA in 2004. There are about 3.2M votes in GA accounted for right now. I guess participation has increased, ¿but 80% more? That is what 2M more votes would mean...

I say this in sorrow, I would love a bigger Obama lead / Bush rejection. ¡Vamos Obama! The world, your old Indonesian neighbours, your Kenyan extended family, is looking at you. A more perfect union should include EVERYONE.

Murtha won.I believe it was CNN that had it.

2008-11-05T00:54:00.001-05:00

Murtha won.

I believe it was CNN that had it.

Karen Handel in Georgia is a criminal. Plain and s...

2008-11-05T00:54:00.000-05:00

Karen Handel in Georgia is a criminal. Plain and simple.

Aaaand Kent737 turns out to be exactly what we tho...

2008-11-05T00:53:00.000-05:00

Aaaand Kent737 turns out to be exactly what we thought, and TypekeyKent says he hopes to be proven wrong.

I think we all hope that, because it'd suck if we just got snookered into something.

WV: Rovegore (no joke). 2000 elections this was not.

What's the score on Murtha?They're not gonna put t...

2008-11-05T00:52:00.001-05:00

What's the score on Murtha?

They're not gonna put that crazy bitch Bachmann back in, are they?

I just looked at the indiana results by county and...

2008-11-05T00:52:00.000-05:00

I just looked at the indiana results by county and it looks like a lock for Obama based on what's left.

@Jen, it's looking good for california prop2. vega...

2008-11-05T00:50:00.000-05:00

@Jen, it's looking good for california prop2. vegan.com has some info

The old farts inexplicably broke for McCrypt Keepe...

2008-11-05T00:49:00.000-05:00

The old farts inexplicably broke for McCrypt Keeper. Do these morons realise that if this Republican ticket had it's way, their social security would be fucked.

Bill Schneider: This was a victory for young voters

BTW, looking at how close some states were/are, I'm convinced Greg Palast was on the money - 6 million votes have been scrubbed.

I am thrilled that Obama won, but this GA vote sup...

2008-11-05T00:48:00.000-05:00

I am thrilled that Obama won, but this GA vote suppression is just appalling. The votes of my friends and family had better be counted, and this had better not be another way for Karen Handel to suppress votes.

Petekent!Oh my goodness! Had me totally fooled, t...

2008-11-05T00:47:00.000-05:00

Petekent!

Oh my goodness! Had me totally fooled, that's for sure.

patrick:

Thanks for that - do you know if the counties yet to report are likely to be blue or red?

Man...I knew there was a reason that I secretly en...

2008-11-05T00:46:00.000-05:00

Man...I knew there was a reason that I secretly enjoyed reading Pete's posts and got a laugh out of them. Oh well, I was actually thinking there was one person in Oklahoma with a sense of humor and ability to debate a little.

Dancin’ in the StreetsI think this spontaneous dem...

2008-11-05T00:44:00.004-05:00

Dancin’ in the Streets

I think this spontaneous demonstration in front of the White House is awesome.

Bush should come out and speak to them. You know McCain would have.

I know how excited many of you are and I cannot help but feel your joy. I have known it myself and will know it again.

I really do hope Obama is a good President, a successful one.

I would applaud nothing more than if he could make me change my mind about him.