Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The best move of the general election season (so f...

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2009-10-09T03:27:06.550-04:00

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2009-02-11T22:53:00.000-05:00

There are some downsides to suing. First, the exis...

2008-06-11T12:01:00.000-04:00

There are some downsides to suing. First, the existence of a lawsuit becomes an excuse to republish the libel with impunity. Second, lawsuits take a long time. Third, a lawsuit of this kind can backfire.

Recall the 1988 Republican presidential campaign, when the Rev. Pat "Blowhard Phony" Robertson sued former Rep. Pete McCloskey for revealing the Robertson had used the influence of his father, a prominent senator from Virginia, to weasel out of combat zone service in the Korean War, where Pat's main duties had been procuring liquor for the troops.

Pat filed the lawsuit to try to make McCloskey look bad, but when McCloskey backed up the story with testimony from others who'd been there, Robertson not only dropped the lawsuit but dropped his aspirations to be president.

Well, I am no fan of dirty tricks, nor I am fan of...

2008-06-10T23:10:00.000-04:00

Well, I am no fan of dirty tricks, nor I am fan of the GOP attack machine. But I do think that it would set a horrible precedent to sue people who say things that are untrue about you- in the political realm. It makes you look like a weenie.

Could this story about Hotmail be signs of the swo...

2008-06-10T18:51:00.000-04:00

Could this story about Hotmail be signs of the swot teams work?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/10/is-hotmail-contributing-t_n_106229.html

As an attorney, I'll second what an anonymous post...

2008-06-10T16:20:00.000-04:00

As an attorney, I'll second what an anonymous poster said above about the futility of lawsuits over Obama rumors.

It would be hard for Obama to satisfy the knowingly false or recklesss disregard standard for defamation of public figures under the NYT v. Sullivan docrine.

For example, it is a fact that Obama's natural father and stepfather were Muslims, he briefly attended a Muslim school while in Indonesia, and Trinity sells Louis Farrakhan DVDs. That would be enough for a defamation defendant in a Muslim rumors case to defeat such a suit.

NoQuarterUSA.NET may just be the most despicable w...

2008-06-10T14:33:00.000-04:00

NoQuarterUSA.NET may just be the most despicable website on the internet and that is obviously saying quite a lot. OK, there's some pretty nasty sites online, that is some exaggeration. But I am just floored by the discourse there. It's incredible to me any so called "liberal" would vote for McCain over Obama. The anti-Obama diatribes there are just... nauseating. They are a real disgrace to all Democrats and all Clinton supporters.

p.s.: As for why a single mother/waitress would be...

2008-06-10T13:33:00.000-04:00

p.s.: As for why a single mother/waitress would be a Republican, my suspicion is that she's a member of some Christian church that has convinced its flock that Jesus H. Christ was a right winger. I don't like it, that's for damned sure. But that's life at the moment, and maybe one of these decades the Democratic Party as an institution will quit condescending to that group and decide to communicate with them and ask them for their votes. It would be a novel idea, wouldn't it?

I want to make something clear. I didn't give the ...

2008-06-10T13:29:00.000-04:00

I want to make something clear. I didn't give the woman money for the purpose of converting her to Obama. From time to time, I help people who are in trouble. I've got a little bit of a bleeding heart, I suppose.

I have no idea who she'll vote for. If she had told me she was Republican and would always be Republican she'd still have gotten the $100 bill. She's a single mom with three kids and it looked like she'd be putting in a 10-hour day.

The real point of my story is that the rumor and slime machine MUST be confronted. Will they still do it? Damn right they will. But you don't just roll over and play dead, or go windsurfing while they do it.

You stand up and you call them on that shit. You call into the radio shows. You post on their blogs. You write letters to the editors of dinky little newspapers in the middle of nowhere. You put out press releases calling out whoever did it.

Does it work all of the time? Nope. Does it show at least some voters that you're not a sucker? Yes, it does. This stuff CAN be combated. If Kerry himself had brought his ass back from Hood River, Oregon (nice town and great winsurfing, but Ecclesiastes tells us there's a season for everything, and August 2004 was not John Kerry's season to go windsurfing) and gone a little bit crazy about those attacks, we'd be organizing a re-election campaign right now.

"Why would a single mother waitress be a republica...

2008-06-10T11:42:00.000-04:00

"Why would a single mother waitress be a republican any way?"

Why would any professional earning six figures be a Democrat? That's what I am and I'm guessing many 538readers are in the same boat.

It rankles me a little when I see people defining someone else's self-interest for them. Frequently those definitions are narrowly based on nothing but income. But if the last two elections have demonstrated anything it's that people won't vote their wallets if they believe a higher purpose is at stake.

"Self-interest" is a complicated thing. Extending the Bush tax cuts is in my self-interest in a measurable way that, for example, troop withdrawal from Iraq is not, yet the war violates my sense of right and wrong in such a way that I'll enthusiastically vote against my tangible self-interest.

When we as liberals kvetch "How can poor people vote Republican?" we're taking a view of those voters that's narrow and frankly disrespectful to their thinking. Fortunately I think we finally have a Dem candidate who understands that you have to appeal to a person's higher values.

re: rumors. personally, i've had to swat down the...

2008-06-10T11:03:00.000-04:00

re: rumors. personally, i've had to swat down these rumors from close to 10 people. all lean republican but wouldn't mind voting democratic now. the rumor stuff is the usual stuff: "why doesn't he pledge to the flag?" ,"is he really muslim?", etc. i'm often a patient at a local military hospital(dependent) and i've been receiving treatment there for close to 12 years so everyone knows my political stripes. it's at the hospital where the most questions are asked by young military nurses and technicians re: pledge, muslim past. i tell them all the same thing -- how come you didn't hear hillary clinton repeating the rumors? or why we won't hear john mccain repeat them? because they are demonstrably false. that seems to do the trick.

Goo question, Nieddu. Here is how I make sense of...

2008-06-10T09:45:00.000-04:00

Goo question, Nieddu. Here is how I make sense of it.
A white waitress votes Republican because they are paying lip service to the values of rural communities.
Besides, if you don't know how to pay your bills, the Republicans have had a message for you: tax cuts.
Of course, that was baloney because her children would be liable for the federal debt and her family would be suffering over-proportionally from the loss of services and deteriorating infrastructure.
But the Republican message at least validated the concerns of the working poor while Democrats had become afraid to talk about the poor for fear of offending their funders.

nieddu: "Why would a single mother waitress be a r...

2008-06-10T09:37:00.000-04:00

nieddu: "Why would a single mother waitress be a republican any way?"

She probably grew up, and spent most her life, in an area where 'common sense' people were Republican, unlike those 'weird damned liberals' - and never had much time, or inclination, to read up on the issues and come to her own more informed conclusions.

.

Since race is a socially constructed category, the...

2008-06-10T09:35:00.000-04:00

Since race is a socially constructed category, the label black is ambiguous. In America, we used to refer to Irish immigrants as black during the nineteenth century.

In Britain, South Asians are also considered black. I do not know where I read it but an African American social scientist reported about his visit to Africa that a child asked his translator why he was hanging out with a white person.

The translator replied: "Why do you think he is white? His skin is just as dark as mine and yours."

The child responded: "He smells white."

Although it is true that we tend to think of blacks as people with African descent, the original point may well be valid. South Asian are certainly subject to discrimination because they look "different."

The violence against Sikhs is only one manifestation.

While the other posters have a point about the meaning of black, in my opinion, Gabriel's argument remains true. If John McCain wants to protect people like his daughter then he cannot tolerate racism, especially not racism that is based on skin color.

Nate: "McCain himself does not seem inclined to go...

2008-06-10T09:33:00.000-04:00

Nate: "McCain himself does not seem inclined to go negative..."

That's irony, right?

McCain himself is the one who went on air and called Obama "the Hamas candidate".

Linking the presidential nominee to Palestinian terrorists is pretty damned negative, if'n you me.

.

Very good post, Nate, except for the bit hinting t...

2008-06-10T09:18:00.000-04:00

Very good post, Nate, except for the bit hinting that the Obama campaign would sue over false rumors. Legally, that is a non-starter. The First Amendment protection for political speech is so broad that defamation actions are more or less impossible for politicians to win. The legal theory is that this is the political process and we don't want to chill even ridiculous rumors because some end up being true. (Think dress, blue.)

Given his past as a constitutional law professor (lower-case "p" here just in case someone wants to gripe), Obama knows this well. The SWAT team will combat rumors and put the truth out there. It won't be suing anyone. I think Maddow had it right last night---the good way to deal with these things is to bring them to light and mock the people spreading the nonsense.

@Charles Pluc.Why would a single mother waitress b...

2008-06-10T08:02:00.000-04:00

@Charles Pluc.

Why would a single mother waitress be a republican any way?
I know she is not the only one having economic hard time and still voting republican, it just shows how effective the republican marketing and disinformation machine has been over the last decades.
The SWAT team Obama has just set up is indeed a great move.

While I do not expect McCain to engage in personal...

2008-06-10T06:52:00.000-04:00

While I do not expect McCain to engage in personally negative politics himself, we can be sure that his surrogates and sockpuppet 527s will do. Obama's campaign are far too smart to let that go unanswered and will respond in kind.

As for the issue of whether Clinton's supporters will return to the fold and vote for Obama, I think Obama supporters will make their case in clear terms. That involves reminding Clinton voters of particular reasons why voting for McCain should be incomprehensible for any Clinton supporter of sound mind. I'm not just talking about the fact that McCain's Supreme Court choices may mark the end of the road for Roe v Wade. I'm also talking about McCain's disgusting joke about Chelsea Clinton being ugly (google it if you want to know more). The idea that female supporters of Hillary Clinton will turn out for McCain in November is fantasy. Indeed the polling data since Hillary's concession already shows that over 80% of Democrats will now vote for Obama (up from 70%).

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Very soon the narrative will focus on McCain and worrying polling in swing states as the Democratic vote shores up.

I have a question that is similar -- about the per...

2008-06-10T06:49:00.000-04:00

I have a question that is similar -- about the percentage chances of winning each state over on the left. I'd love to see a historical chart of these to see if his chances have gone up or down over time.

Anyhow, I also agree that the off-brand negative stuff about Obama is coming. Rumors are difficult to quell, but a "SWAT Team" could go a long way to planting counter-rumors, (i.e. the truth) and getting it out virally.

One thing to remember is that the reason right-wing talking points get traction is that they feed into preexisting prejudices. That is, it sounds "natural" that Muslims are the enemy so a man named Hussein is suspect, just like in the old days it sounded "natural" that a leftist would be loyal to the USSR.

dumb question about Electoral Vote Distribution ch...

2008-06-10T04:52:00.000-04:00

dumb question about Electoral Vote Distribution chart:

I now get that the y-axis is the number of trials in which the computer got that number of EVs, but then why are there more high red lines than high blue lines? I mean ... let's take the highest red line, somewhere between 240 and 270. If McCain got that many EVs in that many trials - there should be a corresponding number of trials where Obama got 538 minus that number - so shouldn't there be a blue line somewhere that's exactly as high as the highest red line?

What am I missing? (caveat - I'm not a statistician - just an inquisitive moron).

I also wanted to take a minute to address this com...

2008-06-10T03:22:00.000-04:00

I also wanted to take a minute to address this comment by Nate:

But as McCain himself does not seem inclined to go negative. . .

Okay, that comes way too close to assuming either of the candidates has a soul -- we know better. Nobody running from President has any qualms about doing whatever it takes to win. You don't get to that position if you do.

What we have are two candidates who have adopted a more cordial style because it sells, especially outside of the East coast. This is going to make it a fun season for us wonks: we get to see our candidates aggressively attack each other on policy, and creatively/underhandedly attack each other personally.

We've already seen this with the Obama "losing his bearings" comments, and the McCain "Obama should go with me to Iraq" storyline.

Good fun!

Dan: "I'm not too worried about these rumors, Obam...

2008-06-10T02:47:00.000-04:00

Dan: "I'm not too worried about these rumors, Obama camp can handle them... what I'm more worried about is voter fraud."

Minor quibble, but what you mean - I think - is election fraud, not voter fraud.

Voter fraud is when a voter votes multiple times, or votes intentionally in the wrong district, or otherwise misrepresents themselves.

Election fraud is when a party takes wholesale action to change the vote, such as stealing cast ballots, vote caging, hacking electronic voting machines, etc.

The only reason that I offer the correction is because voter fraud isn't a big problem in this country, and the rare recent instances of it have been nowhere near enough to change the outcome of an election. But Republicans make a big issue of it in an attempt to get Voter ID laws passed and drive down the vote.

Election fraud, however, is more of a concern - because, if successful and not caught, it really can change the outcome of an election.

.

Did any of you catch McCain's subtle encouragement...

2008-06-10T02:33:00.000-04:00

Did any of you catch McCain's subtle encouragement for people to believe viral campaigns today: "I'm scouting my VP prospects using Google. It's amazing what you can find."

That's a dog whistle if I ever heard one. First off, I very much doubt that McCain can manipulate the internet -- it's a generational thing. Secondly, it's just a bizarre comment: Of course he isn't using Google to scout his VP prospects.

I'm not too worried about these rumors, Obama camp...

2008-06-10T02:25:00.000-04:00

I'm not too worried about these rumors, Obama camp can handle them... what I'm more worried about is voter fraud. I really hope Obama campaign has taken steps to prevent voter fraud though which the republicans stole the elections in 2000 & 2004.