Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Debates May Not Be Decisive After All

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2009-09-23T02:03:20.268-04:00

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2009-01-19T08:19:00.000-05:00

Nate's post appears to ignore a distinction that s...

2008-09-24T02:00:00.000-04:00

Nate's post appears to ignore a distinction that separates two of the five years from the remaining three - and that distinction holds true for this year.

The elections of 1988 [net swing of 2.42 (4.84 by fivethirtyeight.com standards)] and 2000 [net swing of -3.52 (-7.04 by fivethirtyeight.com standards)] were both open elections. As incumbent presidents were not on the ballot those years, the swings were decidedly more pronounced. While it remains to be seen whether or not we will see a similar result this year, such a swing would not be entirely unexpected. The public's familiarity with the respective candidates is significantly less in open seat elections, making them naturally more unpredictable.

Beginning with the Republican Party's first national election in 1856, there have been 15 contests in which no incumbent president appeared on the ballot. In 12 of those 15 contests, the Republican prevailed. Whether this year will be like one of those 12, or whether it will be like 1856, 1888, or 1960 may rest largely on the respective candidates' performances in the debates.

Also, in 2004, didn't Bush still have some "conven...

2008-09-23T19:12:00.000-04:00

Also, in 2004, didn't Bush still have some "convention bounce" going into that first debate? So some of Kerry's gain in the polls could have been the bounce settling (due to Bush's lackluster performance) rather than just the debate itself.

Odd...from that data table, it looks like the most...

2008-09-23T16:47:00.000-04:00

Odd...from that data table, it looks like the most important debate outcome was "lockbox" and GWB outperforming low expectations in 2000. A 7-point swing for the three debates, wow!

All of the intelligent conservatives (George Will,...

2008-09-23T14:59:00.000-04:00

All of the intelligent conservatives (George Will, Andrew Sullivan, etc) have jumped ship from McCain/Palin. They are just too obviously unqualified. They've told too many obvious lies. Neither one of them has what it takes to even do a passable job as President.

Obama up 7 in CO with PPP, 51-44. Obama was previo...

2008-09-23T14:27:00.000-04:00

Obama up 7 in CO with PPP, 51-44. Obama was previously ahead by 1 with the same pollster.

How about the voter registration deadlines and the...

2008-09-23T14:07:00.000-04:00

How about the voter registration deadlines and the order of these debates? i.e. There will be time for voter registration after this first debate, which plays to McCain's strong suit, while the deadline will have already passed by the time of the second debate...

As long as I am posting, I thought I'd weigh in on...

2008-09-23T14:02:00.000-04:00

As long as I am posting, I thought I'd weigh in on the Inkstain/Koz debate. 2000 should count as the one time the voting did flip. After all, the polls we have been talking used do not attmept to count individual states. Instead they measure the national vote, and Gore won that, thus representing one case in which the candidate behind in the polls came on to "win."

Also, Inkstain's inclusion of thopse elections in which the two candidates were far apart inthe polls skews the results. We know that there is a tendency for elections to "regress toward the mean." Thus the underlying dybnaic suggests that one sided elections will head tighten. IN other words, closing the gap is a built-in tendency in those cases.

I do not join those who bash Rasmussen's polling b...

2008-09-23T13:54:00.000-04:00

I do not join those who bash Rasmussen's polling because he is a Christian conservative and a Republican. These values may influence the topics he asks about on his polls, but he is a businessman. Deliberately distorting polls is an excellent way to destroy his business. I do not think he is doing so.

Among the differences between RR polls and many others are his express use of likely voters rather than registered voters (other polls will probably shift that way as the election gets closer) and his adjustment of weights for Party ID.

The adjustment for party ID is different from the one he used four years ago and thus the model has some uncertainty there. Since his likely voter model is a trade secret (as it is with most pollsters) we do not know how that impacts his figures.

Obviously, the likely voter model he used then worked pretty well in 2004. But one major aspect of this year's election is the contention that the the Obama campaign will have changed the turn-out pattterns. We also do not know if he has changed his model in any way. Since the election has not yet been held, we do not know what the reality is, although a good deal of data suggest that the models used last time are diffeerent from what will happen this year. That is, the likely voter screen should be different this year compared to, say, four years ago.

The issue is, how much? If the change is marginal, Rqasmussen's figures are probably right. If, on the other hand, it is significant, then Rasmussen has been underestimating Obama "market share" and will continue to do so.

My guess (an educated one but still a guess) is that he has and will have about a 1-1.5% tilt toward McCain. Not very large, but enough to make a difference if the election is very tight.

Also, he does not attempt to poll cell phones, and this injects additional uncertainty in his polls. The jury is still out about what effect, if any, this will have.

Pete Kent:While responding to all the silliness in...

2008-09-23T13:41:00.000-04:00

Pete Kent:
While responding to all the silliness in your posts would be just about a fulll-time job, I will respond to one. You stated that Rasmussen is a pollster and Nate is Baseball analyst. (I think that was the exact term.)

Partly right. Rasmussen is indeed a pollster and Nate is not. He has never claimed to be one. What he is is a statistician, and he is applying his statistical knowledge to his two passions (at least they are the ones we know about), baseball and politics.

Rasmussen does not attempt to do what Nate is doing and Nate does not attempt to do what Rasmussenis doing. That is one reason Rasmussen links to Nate's site.

You obviously cannot tell the difference between apples and oranges.

"I'll have it set up by next week and give the add...

2008-09-23T13:31:00.000-04:00

"I'll have it set up by next week and give the address to people through email (on their screen names) to avoid tipping off the sockpuppets as to where it is."

What makes you think the sockpuppets won't be able to get in? They're likely among the regulars crowd.

I referenced Nate's Post at Huffington Post.

2008-09-23T13:00:00.000-04:00

I referenced Nate's Post at Huffington Post.

I second Florida GOPs idea.

2008-09-23T12:37:00.000-04:00

I second Florida GOPs idea.

There will be no Joe Lieberman standing behind McC...

2008-09-23T12:35:00.000-04:00

There will be no Joe Lieberman standing behind McCain to tap him on the shoulder and correct him this time.

No, but look for the lump on his back.

@Virginia Conservative said... Nate could see t...

2008-09-23T12:34:00.000-04:00

@Virginia Conservative said...
Nate could see the IP addresses if he checked the comments, and ban the offending sock puppets.<<<<<

VC,
If Nate could do it, can he not also delegate the authority to do it? Select a couple of the respected posters on this site - You, Sedi, maybe Charles, Inkstain, etc make a small team, perform the function for Nate.

We need to discover if Nate is against nailing Sockpuppets or just does not have enough bandwidth

I'm in favor of a moderator/banning as opposed to ...

2008-09-23T12:24:00.000-04:00

I'm in favor of a moderator/banning as opposed to a secretive undisclosed new location. Only because I feel like there'd be more of a disconnect from the actual site which is why we are all here in the first place.

Trolls were entertaining and the "stupid" was a nice balance to the often lofty things being discussed, but lorda mercy it's just annoying now.

Ooo, Pete is calling me "pathetic". What's next, M...

2008-09-23T12:22:00.000-04:00

Ooo, Pete is calling me "pathetic". What's next, McCain calling me "dishonest"? Palin calling me "corrupt"? LOL.

--
Charles M. Kozierok

If you see someone post something stupid here using my name, it’s an imposter. Click the name to go to the person’s profile, and check the blogger ID in the address line: mine is #10019303035321620019, and my profile contains a link to my blog, AABW.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/opinion/21dowd-s...

2008-09-23T12:15:00.000-04:00

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/opinion/21dowd-sorkin.html

Thought you guys could use a laugh.

Nate could see the IP addresses if he checked the ...

2008-09-23T12:12:00.000-04:00

Nate could see the IP addresses if he checked the comments, and ban the offending sock puppets.

VC - Is there anyway we could set the forum to onl...

2008-09-23T12:09:00.000-04:00

VC - Is there anyway we could set the forum to only allow one name of each so that the forum could be known of publicly? I mean, I rarely post, and there are alot of lurkers who learn alot from these comments when people on both sides are focusing on discourse rather than being offensive.

You make excuse for the particular of Reagan's sit...

2008-09-23T12:06:00.000-04:00

You make excuse for the particular of Reagan's situation vis a vis the impact of the debates on his political fortunes.

I think similar excuses could/should be made for Obama, given the number of folks who are waiting and seeing how he comes through a real Presidential Debate before allaying their caution over pulling the lever for him. And I'm talking about folks who know McCain is a piece of turd.

I'll have it set up by next week and give the addr...

2008-09-23T12:04:00.000-04:00

I'll have it set up by next week and give the address to people through email (on their screen names) to avoid tipping off the sockpuppets as to where it is.

@Blogger Virginia Conservative said... "we need a...

2008-09-23T12:02:00.000-04:00

@Blogger Virginia Conservative said... "we need a message forum, with fixed screen names"

I'm going to set one up when I get the chance, for the commentors from this site.<<<<<<<

VC -- PLEASE YES, I , as a republican, would donate to the site for the purpose of nailing these Sockpuppets.

Petey:George Will, like Bill Buckley before him, i...

2008-09-23T12:01:00.000-04:00

Petey:

George Will, like Bill Buckley before him, is well respected as a conservative icon, not a Republican tool. If you really think it's a "good thing" that people like Will are turning their back on McCain, you're pathetically naive.