Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/4

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2009-10-08T06:56:29.207-04:00

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2009-09-11T07:47:42.649-04:00

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2009-03-11T22:48:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-15T21:37:00.000-05:00

PeteKentThanks for the response. I'll leave Musli...

2008-08-05T19:01:00.000-04:00

PeteKent

Thanks for the response.

I'll leave Muslim theology to the Imams, but I think that, for the average Arab American with Muslim roots, Obama represents a better alternative than the policies of the last eight years.

Obama doesn't have to carry all three of CO, NM and NV if he takes IA (and, course, holds the Kerry states). I think NV will be a stretch for him.

If the Campaign isn't worried about MI, it should get a brain transplant. There's virtually no way that Obama can win without MI. Even VA, which I agree is definitely in play but is a stretch for Obama, has four less EV's--in fact, if you want to drive yourself nuts and get really paranoid, should Obama hold the Kerry states, but lose MI and win IA, CO, NM and VA, he reaches the magic number of 269 EV's, throwing the mess into the House.

A for the left wing stuff, the only thing that's stuck (and stuck big) so far is the Reverend Wright "stuff." Ayers/Dohrn hasn't stuck yet, but that's what 527's are for :). As for Farrakhan (two r's), they will have to find or credibly fabricate a strong connection.

I do agree with you on Black turnout. It's a big unknown. It was 11%, I believe, of the vote in 04. If it can be driven up to 12 or 13% and Obama gets 98%, it's a BFD. On the other hand, if anything happens to suppress it, he's got a problem.

Michael:Thanks for the response.I haven't been pos...

2008-08-05T18:40:00.000-04:00

Michael:

Thanks for the response.

I haven't been posting out here long enough to form opinions on individuals, but I'll keep my eyes open. I don't take much personally when it comes to politics...too many arrows in my back...and I tend to discount or ignore rhetoric like the Messiah stuff. I think it's fair enough to observe that I doubt very much that Obama has Messianic delusions while I also suspect he wishes he could "reword" a few things he's said.

I completely agree with you that Obama has to hit back harder and "regain the narrative" or, as I would put it, not be afraid to go negative on Johnny Mac's a$$.

As for the polls, I think that worrying about daily polling swings at this stage is kind of like being on diets and weighing ourselves twice a day. We'd have no idea what it's telling us and it would drive us crazy.

I think all we can look at at this time are trend lines over a week or so. That's why I remain a fan of RCP. It "averages" a bunch of polls and flawed methodologies without pretending to be all that scientific and it works...or at least it did in 2004 when it nailed the final spread within two tenths of a point. For now, it's an excellent leading indicator of the Prediction Markets and models that try to dissect polling [I'm agnostic on the value of what this web site is trying to do. The author clearly knows what he is doing statswise (I know enough statistics to know what I don't know but also enough not be be fooled), but the jury is out on the validity of the methodology in a national election. I've been tracking his predictions on a daily basis since early July (after he had a chance to work the bugs out of his model) vs. the RCP Daily Average, the Intrade Prediction Markets and an average of 17 Bookies so I'll have a view by the end of the cycle. His calculation of PIE is, however, extremely innovative and I imagine that it has hoisted more than one egocentric pollster on his/her own petard, as the saying goes.)

I also pay virtually no mind to state by state polls until after Labor Day (lousy samples, small sample sizes, flawed prediction models). My view, expressed out here a couple of times, is that the national polls by the end of August give us a sense of the contours of the race, which will fill in at the state level later this month and in early September. By the last two weeks of September, I start to take the polls seriously.

I completely agree with the Reagan analogy and I've been pushing it here and among colleagues and friends. People remember his EV landslide in 1980, but forget that he got it with only 50.7% of the vote and the help of John Anderson. I hope this doesn't follow the Dukakis model, as we're in deep doo doo if it does.

I disagree that Obama will win by 6--7 nationally (but see my comments immediately above, which suggest that neither I nor anyone knows what's going to happen at this time). I think he gets a Reaganesque less than 51% of the vote and wins with around 273 E Votes. If McCain implodes or explodes during one of the debates, then it could be different, but I doubt that will happen, as much as I would like it.

Look forward to more chats over the next three months.

Michael,The Messaih meme works b/c Obama has stumb...

2008-08-05T15:44:00.000-04:00

Michael,

The Messaih meme works b/c Obama has stumbled into it with his pretenstion and his lofty rhetoric that is all about him being the savior of the nation.

I prefer to go with the humble servant.

I suspect McCain will begin to show more consistent leads in the polls now that the country has begun to wake up to the emptiness of the Obama candidacy and how little it actaully offers other than as an antidote to Bush (who BTW is leaving offcie in January).

McCain has taken the high ground on Energy and his strategy won the War, never mind the debate about it.

The Economy remains the only jump ball as far as I am concerned and I think we have just enough time to be able to peek around the corner and spy prosperity by Election Day.

Why then take the chance on Obama?

John NYC--I appreciate the thoguhtful, considerate...

2008-08-05T15:38:00.000-04:00

John NYC--

I appreciate the thoguhtful, considerate reply.

NOW EAT MY SHORTS!

Just kidding!

I wonder about the Muslim vote. Obama's campaign has already dissed Muslim women and his conversion to Christianity makes him an Apostate for whom the penalty is death under Sharia law. I don't think many will be that enthused about him, but compared to the alternative . . . and given his de facto endorsement by Hamas and his clickishness with members of the PLO, he might have a shot.

If Obama can't win CO, NV and NM, he is in a good deal of trouble. Esp if you agree that OH and Fl are not realistic and MI is yet to be nailed down. Right now I would give the election to Obama with 278EVs, but that includes him winning the aforementioned.

VA may be the second biggest tipping point state right now, but I honestly think that is more hype than anything else. It is a conservative state with a lot of miliary folks and people who make their living off the defense industry. barack obama may be a bridge too far for them.

Black turnout is the great imponderable and is Obama's best shot at mixing things up down south. I have my doubts about how enthusiatic the AA pop is for the guy.

As far as Obama's base goes, the more he get defined as a left winger with a history of radical associations, the smaller that will become.

I think we hacve not heard the last of Rev Wright, "Minister" Farakhan, or Bill Ayers.

JohnNYC,I agree that in general, the comments are ...

2008-08-05T14:30:00.000-04:00

JohnNYC,

I agree that in general, the comments are phrased more civilly and are less juvenile in nature. However, regular GOP posters have likened Obama to Hitler and just today Peter Kent pushed the big lie (speaking of Nazi techniques) that Obama has pushed himself as the messiah, a meme that was pushed and originated by the Clintons, so that is beyond the pale, civility-wise, however dressed up it may be in civil language. Peter Kent's game is pretty slick if transparent. Do the William Safire trick of attempting to seem reasonable, but the goal is to spin any and all news as gloom and doom for Obama, leavened with enough neutral observations to make the dagger slip in less obviously. Whether Obama is ahead by 15 or down by 1, it is all spelling the end for the street hustler messiah liberal from Chicago, as far as PK is concerned, and let's make sure to drop those slurs and slanders innocently into the posts. Such posts become utterly predictable and disposable.

Any honest poster on here will admit that the relentlessly negative attacks by the McCain campaign, Obama's equivocation on FISA and drilling, and the slavish repetition of McCain talking points by the corporate media (how many reports have you seen telling you that offshore drilling won't even be available for 10 years - that from Bush's department of energy, and will do ZERO to bring down the price now, and, again according to Bush's own energy department, never have more than a "negligible" effect on prices???) have driven Obama down from 50 to 47-46 in the nationals. Depending which poll you choose to believe, McCain is anywhere from 40-47. Both of these are well within margins of error, but I am honest enough to admit that Obama is no more than back to his pre-trip ratings. By the same token, any McCain supporter who is honest needs to be concerned that McCain continues to have a national ceiling of 45-46%. And of course, none of the battleground states have shifted much either way, so the status quo on the EVs still strongly favors Obama, with McCain needing an inside straight of Michigan and Ohio to get the nod.

I do think that if Obama does not hit back more forcefully and regain the narrative, something the MSM is loathe to let him do (see Ron Baum's astonishingly biased "report" on Obama's critique of McCain, leading the report by dissecting Obama) he will be in trouble. But after 3 months of mainly negative press (as confirmed by the study group loved by O"reilly and Hannity of fixed noise), he is still ahead comfortably EV-wise and ahead or tied in the nationals.

That said, if the race looks the way it does now after the conventions, Obama wins...

I still see this as feeling very much like 2 models: Reagan-Carter and Bush-Dukakis, with many more similarities to Reagan-Carter. The three debates will be key. If McCain can come across as affable and at least partially informed (and/or if the media decide to ignore his inevitable gaffes) and, at the same time, Obama turns in a weak and stutter-filled performance like he did when turned on by Gibson and Stephanopolos, then yikes.

If, on the other hand, Obama is the cool, charismatic and knowledgeable one, using humor to deflect, and is obviously not the monster so doggedly painted by the sour grapes express and McCain shows his increasingly evident mean streak and age-related gaps in memory and sentience, it will be game over, ala Reagan in 1980.

It will either be Obama by 6-7 nationally and a 300-400 EV victory or McCain by a point and a 280-258 squeaker.

Very interesting piece in pollster.com arguing ver...

2008-08-05T13:59:00.000-04:00

Very interesting piece in pollster.com arguing very convincingly against forcing undecideds to choose this early on.

Between "likely voter" models, Party ID models and forcing undecideds, we can account for such dramatic differences as gallup having a 12 point disparity between 2 polls, or Gallup having Obama up 47-43 and Rasmussen pushing a second day of McCain 47-46.

Here is the article: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_should_pollsters_cringe_at.php

Obama up 47-43 in the Gallup tracker. I wonder whe...

2008-08-05T13:03:00.000-04:00

Obama up 47-43 in the Gallup tracker. I wonder whether the Rasmussen tracker will follow suit tomorrow.

OTF said "counsellorben, How obtuse can you be. Wh...

2008-08-05T12:56:00.000-04:00

OTF said "counsellorben, How obtuse can you be. When people talk about their home state in political terms they mean where they were elected official or last held office."

OTF,

I might be obtuse, but I can read. If you had looked at and read this entire page, you would see the column on the right, titled "Resident State."

Please make sure you read all source material before throwing around insults. It boomerangs back on you when you cannot be bothered to review information before attacking others.

I will wait for an apology. I don't expect it, but I will wait for it.

PeteKent:To your lengthy post and several observat...

2008-08-05T11:43:00.000-04:00

PeteKent:

To your lengthy post and several observations.

Don't be so quick to dis "Green" at the Convention. As long as the Party doesn't do anything silly (admittedly and unfortunately not out of the question), Green plays with IND's and other Swing Voters.

***
Obama has to go negative, but not on Big Oil. His campaign has to get negative on McCain and not repeat the mistakes of Augusts Past by letting personal attacks go unanswered.

***
I think the Olympics are a wash. Yeah, they're patriotic but they're also about youth. As for the "underwear model" stuff, let him who is without a paunch throw the first jockey...

***
You're right about trouble for us in MI, but you also shouldn't forget that there are 300,000 Arab Americans and Muslims registered in the state. You're also right that we should forget about FL and OH. VA, though, is not out of Obama's reach.

***
Re: Pelosi. I think it would be best for Obama if she limits her media exposure to San Francisco and Manhattan between now and election day.

***
I don't know the details of Zogby's polls since I refuse to pay for anything I'll eventually see for free, but I worry that you might be right about CO and NM as national trends from early August generally work there way into Swing Voter attitudes in Battleground States in Late August and Early September. NV isn't realistic for us anyway and we should fuhgeddaboutit.

***
Re the liberal politician. Obama's base is a lot broader than you let on, otherwise he'd be at 33% in the polls.

thatmarvelousape...To your comment "Hmmm, it look...

2008-08-05T11:21:00.000-04:00

thatmarvelousape...

To your comment "Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad."

Of all the boards I have visited with a bias towards one of the candidates (and this is a pro-Obama board), this is by far the most civil and, more importantly, has the most thoughtful posts pro and con. Learn to ignore the rants; it's better to ignore them than to censor them.

Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to...

2008-08-05T10:28:00.000-04:00

Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad.

Nobody's going to remember was said this week when...

2008-08-05T10:05:00.000-04:00

Nobody's going to remember was said this week when we get into September.

Words are short term, images are long term.

Trust Obama's staff. Having said that, it's Tuesday, and I still think picking the veep later this week would be to Obama's advantage. Now is the time, Barack. But hopefully they've already figured it out.

Back when I was a Richardson supporter, I was in awe of Obama's campaign staff. While I could point to all sorts of stuff the Richardson campaign staff was doing wrong, Obama's staff did everything right. To get Obama any kind of chance at all took a heck of a lot of skill.

Let's see what they do in the next three weeks, but I'm not concerned.

Yet.

As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama...

2008-08-05T09:46:00.000-04:00

As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama’s VP would be Gore! People want gas, they don’t want to go Green. That is why the whole green convention thing in Denver will attract so much ridicule. I wonder of the Dems are already taking pains to tamp that down. The problem for them is that Environmentalism has become the secular religion of the Party. Obama must be feeling terribly boxed in on energy right now. He is going to really need to start tap dancing. Calling Mr. Bojangles!

****

Matt JH and Cugel: Obama cannot go too harshly negative it will ruin his brand, what’s left of it. Cugel, you need to go back on your meds! Calm down! Your strategy will destroy Obama. What can he attack on? Big oil? Same anti-capitalist, populist BS has been a loser for years. They may be nasty oil companies, but they are our nasty oil companies! It sounds good for a moment to attack them, but that is not a solution to the energy crisis. We want them to find more oil, not to punish them. Obama must be careful not to be anti-capitalist in his rhetoric, many of us fear he may be a crypto-socialist as it is.

***

I think the Olympics will be a bad period for Obama. Nationalism ought to rise among the people and Obama is a bit too much of a one-worlder to benefit from it. Besides don’t you think even at his age, McCain, had he not been tortured in Vietnam, could throw a shot put further than Obama?

I loved the stories last week that Obama was too thin to be President. As I said yesterday, Obama looks like he could be blown away in the wind; McCain could stand up to a gale on a carrier deck.

Obama would be better than McCain as an underwear model, but do we really need this in a president? In this case, "young vs. old" could also be read as "weak vs. strong," in which case it flips to McCain's advantage, as we are selecting a commander-in-chief, and not the star of a commercial.

***

Ben--McCain has a great shot at MI. It is the home of the internal combustion engine, it is a state with unpopular Democrat Governor. Obama’s reluctance to find us more oil here at home will hurt him more in MI than anywhere else. Why, Ben, do you think it will be hard for McCain to win there? It is THE tipping point state this year. FL and OH are already in McCain’s camp, along with VA, you just can’t see it yet. Calling Governor Bradley!

***

Nancy Pelosi said on the Sunday talk shows that she would not want anymore drilling here in the US because “we have a world to save”. Good stuff for the Republican attack machine!

***

Zogby’s Poll Should be all the more worrisome b/c he has traditionally shown a Democrat bias. Worse as BJB points out, McCain biggest gains have come in the West and the central US: The Battlegrounds. As these national polls start moving towards McCain, expect to see state polls follow over the next week. Including CO and NV and NM.

***

Obama is a very liberal politician. People see that and he will lose.

Obama has no real base other than the far left wing of his party. He runs the risk of alienating the many gullible people who were fooled by his initial message of hope and change by going negative. Again, here is a man who was too clever by a half. Like with drilling and the War.

He would have been better off waiting a few years before running. He could have better prepared himself for this race. What’s up with this “fierce urgency of now”? it sounds like he needs to take a pee or something!

Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) c...

2008-08-05T09:21:00.000-04:00

Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) cannot be attributed simply “negative” campaigning that will backfire on McCain. I hear that a lot from democrat pundits and posters who desperately want McCain to stop exposing Obama as the man of empty rhetoric and deep-seated liberal convictions who has chosen political expediency over principle in order to get elected that he is.

Obama is losing ground because he has abandoned his core principles and shown himself to be just another politician and not the Mecca or Messiah of Hope that he sought to portray himself as.

While i have only heard the reports on POTS apparently Obama in the Zogby poll suffered mass defections among the youth vote. This group apparently has been put off by Obama changing course on the issues that the care most about (the War and FISA), but I suspect also secondarily by his refusal to come up with a real solution to the gas crisis. Young people have les disposable income and feel the pinch at the pump more acutely than other age cohorts.

The other thing that has taken its toll is McCain’s brilliant use of the Paris Hilton ad to define Obama as a simply another celebrity. By doing so he has neutralized one of Obama’s biggest advantages: his mass appeal. Now those big rallies, and most particularly the Rally in Denver, will be viewed through another prism and with suspicion.

Obama is unlikely to benefit much from his convention. His message of hope is really a very negative message about how bad things are right now, so let’s hope I can make them better for you.

I agree with Nate that Obama had better pick his VEEP soon. He needs to do something to change the vector his campaign is on.

We have reached the inflection point I described last week.

Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is...

2008-08-05T09:18:00.000-04:00

Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is tightening?

Over the past seven days, Obama's RCP daily average lead has been cut in half (5.0 to 2.3) and the margin between Obama and McCain in at least one prediction market has dropped from 32 points to a (still respectable) 22 points (64.1 over 31.7 vs. 59.6 over 36.9).

I still think that none of this means very much at this stage. Remember that the typical voter who will decide this election has yet to focus on the race and is getting most of her/his information about it from (maybe) a few minutes of "Evening News," a quick glance at the headlines in their daily paper (or worse, a tabloid), maybe a view or two of a News website during the day on their Homepage and from friends and co-workers ("Did you hear that Obama is a Muslim and is tight with Paris Hilton?").

My personal approach, which has been reasonably predictive over time, is to pay virtually no attention to state polls until the September (small sample sizes, lousy samples, divergent and/or questionable models), but to look at the national polls as providing an indication of the general contours of the race that will take firm up into actual shapes in the Battleground States in September and October. Shifts suggested by movement in the national numbers usually show up in state polls as August wanes and September begins.

What does this mean for me regarding this election (I'm not suggesting it should mean anything for you, it's just my view)? Not much yet, but if there's "good news," it's good news for McCain and not Obama. It means that the themes that McCain is hitting have begun to get the attention of voters and it means that Obama had better start hitting back and hard (OMG, he should ask himself, what would Hillary be doing to Johnny Mac right about now? Answer: she'd have a hot poker so far up his...but that's not printable here...)

My bottom line remains that Obama will win a very close popular and electoral vote contest (think of Ronald Reagan's 1980 50.7% of the vote without John Anderson to skew the electoral votes). In order to do this he has to forget about the 50 state or whatever "strategy," focus on holding onto Kerry's states, especially MI and PA, and then work like heck to pick up IA, CO and NM (= 273 EV's).

Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, make...

2008-08-05T07:24:00.000-04:00

Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, makes his promise come true to his daughter and feeds that pup good nutritious biscuits.

Oh and uh ...

Dear Mule Rider:

How nice that you dropped in to offer your special services to help clean up 'round Nate's site.

You said @ August 4, 2008 6:28 PM :"Barack Obama looks seriously constipated in this ad to the left...someone please pull the turd out of his butt."

By that comment alone, it stands to reason, you seem to be the turd specialist hereabout. Why ask someone else to do your specialty work for you? Pull that "turd" out of Obama's ass by your lonesome. Oh and watch yer step, there's a brand new steamin' load I squeezed right behind ya' there... Woof! Woof!

Come on by and visit some time.

- Dog_Knows -
.

Obama is a lover, not a fighter.

2008-08-05T05:17:00.000-04:00

Obama is a lover, not a fighter.

Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama l...

2008-08-05T05:13:00.000-04:00

Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama lost a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracking, you could equally argue that since then he has gained 3 points in the Gallup tracking in the past two days.

My suspicion was that McCain would get a short term bump from his negative campaigning but that in the long term it would hurt him. It could be a blip but I wonder whether Obama's upward movement in the Gallup tracker is a sign of that. Let's wait to see how the trackers act this week. If Obama reestablishes a 4 point lead, the McCain camp are in big trouble.

As for the state polls today, they are all in safe states apart from Florida. Let's wait to see some state polls taken now that McCain's smear tactics have been exposed.

Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily ...

2008-08-05T04:52:00.000-04:00

Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily I am proud to post my first post! This site is like crack for political election junkies.

Interesting article in todays NY times (hope i am not duplicating anybody). Wonder if these statistics have been entered into the polling models already.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the ...

2008-08-05T02:40:00.000-04:00

"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the oil companies fill their pockets.

Now Big Oil’s filling John McCain’s campaign with 2 million dollars in contributions.

One thing that I never understand is getting into a tit-for-tat argument over corporate campaign contributions when both candidate's are in the pockets of some really hated industries. Obama makes the Big Oil charge, despite actually voting for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. McCain can respond with Obama being in the pockets of Big Ethanol (IA/IL being the largest two corn producers). But the wild card is Wall Street; the discrepancy in the donations is staggering.

My prediction: Right now the enemy is Big Oil, but because of demand destruction and a strengthening dollar, oil will be approximately $100/bbl by October. However, we're going to start seeing the next act of the credit crunch real soon (say, in about a month when 3-5% of college students don't enroll because the student loan market is frozen); Main Street will want blood.

Lo and Behold, who, by far, is in the pocket of Wall Street?

To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a ...

2008-08-05T01:58:00.000-04:00

To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a worthless online interactive poll from mid-July.

Today's national Zogby poll was a regular nationwide telephone poll and it shows McCain ahead by one (a gain of 11 points in a month for McCain).

Three polls in the past week have shown McCain ahead nationwide.

"The One" ad on YouTube spoofing Obama's messiah complex is the best humorous political ad I've seen. Barack's in for a rough Fall.