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PeteKent:

To your lengthy post and several observations.

Don't be so quick to dis "Green" at the Convention. As long as the Party doesn't do anything silly (admittedly and unfortunately not out of the question), Green plays with IND's and other Swing Voters.

***
Obama has to go negative, but not on Big Oil. His campaign has to get negative on McCain and not repeat the mistakes of Augusts Past by letting personal attacks go unanswered.

***
I think the Olympics are a wash. Yeah, they're patriotic but they're also about youth. As for the "underwear model" stuff, let him who is without a paunch throw the first jockey...

***
You're right about trouble for us in MI, but you also shouldn't forget that there are 300,000 Arab Americans and Muslims registered in the state. You're also right that we should forget about FL and OH. VA, though, is not out of Obama's reach.

***
Re: Pelosi. I think it would be best for Obama if she limits her media exposure to San Francisco and Manhattan between now and election day.

***
I don't know the details of Zogby's polls since I refuse to pay for anything I'll eventually see for free, but I worry that you might be right about CO and NM as national trends from early August generally work there way into Swing Voter attitudes in Battleground States in Late August and Early September. NV isn't realistic for us anyway and we should fuhgeddaboutit.

***
Re the liberal politician. Obama's base is a lot broader than you let on, otherwise he'd be at 33% in the polls.

thatmarvelousape...To your comment "Hmmm, it look...

2008-08-05T11:21:23.741-04:00

thatmarvelousape...

To your comment "Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad."

Of all the boards I have visited with a bias towards one of the candidates (and this is a pro-Obama board), this is by far the most civil and, more importantly, has the most thoughtful posts pro and con. Learn to ignore the rants; it's better to ignore them than to censor them.

Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to...

2008-08-05T10:28:06.462-04:00

Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad.

Nobody's going to remember was said this week when...

2008-08-05T10:05:18.632-04:00

Nobody's going to remember was said this week when we get into September.

Words are short term, images are long term.

Trust Obama's staff. Having said that, it's Tuesday, and I still think picking the veep later this week would be to Obama's advantage. Now is the time, Barack. But hopefully they've already figured it out.

Back when I was a Richardson supporter, I was in awe of Obama's campaign staff. While I could point to all sorts of stuff the Richardson campaign staff was doing wrong, Obama's staff did everything right. To get Obama any kind of chance at all took a heck of a lot of skill.

Let's see what they do in the next three weeks, but I'm not concerned.

Yet.

As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama...

2008-08-05T09:46:30.131-04:00

As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama’s VP would be Gore! People want gas, they don’t want to go Green. That is why the whole green convention thing in Denver will attract so much ridicule. I wonder of the Dems are already taking pains to tamp that down. The problem for them is that Environmentalism has become the secular religion of the Party. Obama must be feeling terribly boxed in on energy right now. He is going to really need to start tap dancing. Calling Mr. Bojangles!

****

Matt JH and Cugel: Obama cannot go too harshly negative it will ruin his brand, what’s left of it. Cugel, you need to go back on your meds! Calm down! Your strategy will destroy Obama. What can he attack on? Big oil? Same anti-capitalist, populist BS has been a loser for years. They may be nasty oil companies, but they are our nasty oil companies! It sounds good for a moment to attack them, but that is not a solution to the energy crisis. We want them to find more oil, not to punish them. Obama must be careful not to be anti-capitalist in his rhetoric, many of us fear he may be a crypto-socialist as it is.

***

I think the Olympics will be a bad period for Obama. Nationalism ought to rise among the people and Obama is a bit too much of a one-worlder to benefit from it. Besides don’t you think even at his age, McCain, had he not been tortured in Vietnam, could throw a shot put further than Obama?

I loved the stories last week that Obama was too thin to be President. As I said yesterday, Obama looks like he could be blown away in the wind; McCain could stand up to a gale on a carrier deck.

Obama would be better than McCain as an underwear model, but do we really need this in a president? In this case, "young vs. old" could also be read as "weak vs. strong," in which case it flips to McCain's advantage, as we are selecting a commander-in-chief, and not the star of a commercial.

***

Ben--McCain has a great shot at MI. It is the home of the internal combustion engine, it is a state with unpopular Democrat Governor. Obama’s reluctance to find us more oil here at home will hurt him more in MI than anywhere else. Why, Ben, do you think it will be hard for McCain to win there? It is THE tipping point state this year. FL and OH are already in McCain’s camp, along with VA, you just can’t see it yet. Calling Governor Bradley!

***

Nancy Pelosi said on the Sunday talk shows that she would not want anymore drilling here in the US because “we have a world to save”. Good stuff for the Republican attack machine!

***

Zogby’s Poll Should be all the more worrisome b/c he has traditionally shown a Democrat bias. Worse as BJB points out, McCain biggest gains have come in the West and the central US: The Battlegrounds. As these national polls start moving towards McCain, expect to see state polls follow over the next week. Including CO and NV and NM.

***

Obama is a very liberal politician. People see that and he will lose.

Obama has no real base other than the far left wing of his party. He runs the risk of alienating the many gullible people who were fooled by his initial message of hope and change by going negative. Again, here is a man who was too clever by a half. Like with drilling and the War.

He would have been better off waiting a few years before running. He could have better prepared himself for this race. What’s up with this “fierce urgency of now”? it sounds like he needs to take a pee or something!

Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) c...

2008-08-05T09:21:37.334-04:00

Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) cannot be attributed simply “negative” campaigning that will backfire on McCain. I hear that a lot from democrat pundits and posters who desperately want McCain to stop exposing Obama as the man of empty rhetoric and deep-seated liberal convictions who has chosen political expediency over principle in order to get elected that he is.

Obama is losing ground because he has abandoned his core principles and shown himself to be just another politician and not the Mecca or Messiah of Hope that he sought to portray himself as.

While i have only heard the reports on POTS apparently Obama in the Zogby poll suffered mass defections among the youth vote. This group apparently has been put off by Obama changing course on the issues that the care most about (the War and FISA), but I suspect also secondarily by his refusal to come up with a real solution to the gas crisis. Young people have les disposable income and feel the pinch at the pump more acutely than other age cohorts.

The other thing that has taken its toll is McCain’s brilliant use of the Paris Hilton ad to define Obama as a simply another celebrity. By doing so he has neutralized one of Obama’s biggest advantages: his mass appeal. Now those big rallies, and most particularly the Rally in Denver, will be viewed through another prism and with suspicion.

Obama is unlikely to benefit much from his convention. His message of hope is really a very negative message about how bad things are right now, so let’s hope I can make them better for you.

I agree with Nate that Obama had better pick his VEEP soon. He needs to do something to change the vector his campaign is on.

We have reached the inflection point I described last week.

Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is...

2008-08-05T09:18:44.586-04:00

Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is tightening?

Over the past seven days, Obama's RCP daily average lead has been cut in half (5.0 to 2.3) and the margin between Obama and McCain in at least one prediction market has dropped from 32 points to a (still respectable) 22 points (64.1 over 31.7 vs. 59.6 over 36.9).

I still think that none of this means very much at this stage. Remember that the typical voter who will decide this election has yet to focus on the race and is getting most of her/his information about it from (maybe) a few minutes of "Evening News," a quick glance at the headlines in their daily paper (or worse, a tabloid), maybe a view or two of a News website during the day on their Homepage and from friends and co-workers ("Did you hear that Obama is a Muslim and is tight with Paris Hilton?").

My personal approach, which has been reasonably predictive over time, is to pay virtually no attention to state polls until the September (small sample sizes, lousy samples, divergent and/or questionable models), but to look at the national polls as providing an indication of the general contours of the race that will take firm up into actual shapes in the Battleground States in September and October. Shifts suggested by movement in the national numbers usually show up in state polls as August wanes and September begins.

What does this mean for me regarding this election (I'm not suggesting it should mean anything for you, it's just my view)? Not much yet, but if there's "good news," it's good news for McCain and not Obama. It means that the themes that McCain is hitting have begun to get the attention of voters and it means that Obama had better start hitting back and hard (OMG, he should ask himself, what would Hillary be doing to Johnny Mac right about now? Answer: she'd have a hot poker so far up his...but that's not printable here...)

My bottom line remains that Obama will win a very close popular and electoral vote contest (think of Ronald Reagan's 1980 50.7% of the vote without John Anderson to skew the electoral votes). In order to do this he has to forget about the 50 state or whatever "strategy," focus on holding onto Kerry's states, especially MI and PA, and then work like heck to pick up IA, CO and NM (= 273 EV's).

Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, make...

2008-08-05T07:24:08.691-04:00

Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, makes his promise come true to his daughter and feeds that pup good nutritious biscuits.

Oh and uh ...

Dear Mule Rider:

How nice that you dropped in to offer your special services to help clean up 'round Nate's site.

You said @ August 4, 2008 6:28 PM :"Barack Obama looks seriously constipated in this ad to the left...someone please pull the turd out of his butt."

By that comment alone, it stands to reason, you seem to be the turd specialist hereabout. Why ask someone else to do your specialty work for you? Pull that "turd" out of Obama's ass by your lonesome. Oh and watch yer step, there's a brand new steamin' load I squeezed right behind ya' there... Woof! Woof!

Come on by and visit some time.

- Dog_Knows -
.

Obama is a lover, not a fighter.

2008-08-05T05:17:09.836-04:00

Obama is a lover, not a fighter.

Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama l...

2008-08-05T05:13:29.246-04:00

Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama lost a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracking, you could equally argue that since then he has gained 3 points in the Gallup tracking in the past two days.

My suspicion was that McCain would get a short term bump from his negative campaigning but that in the long term it would hurt him. It could be a blip but I wonder whether Obama's upward movement in the Gallup tracker is a sign of that. Let's wait to see how the trackers act this week. If Obama reestablishes a 4 point lead, the McCain camp are in big trouble.

As for the state polls today, they are all in safe states apart from Florida. Let's wait to see some state polls taken now that McCain's smear tactics have been exposed.

Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily ...

2008-08-05T04:52:53.283-04:00

Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily I am proud to post my first post! This site is like crack for political election junkies.

Interesting article in todays NY times (hope i am not duplicating anybody). Wonder if these statistics have been entered into the polling models already.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the ...

2008-08-05T02:40:17.712-04:00

"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the oil companies fill their pockets.

Now Big Oil’s filling John McCain’s campaign with 2 million dollars in contributions.

One thing that I never understand is getting into a tit-for-tat argument over corporate campaign contributions when both candidate's are in the pockets of some really hated industries. Obama makes the Big Oil charge, despite actually voting for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. McCain can respond with Obama being in the pockets of Big Ethanol (IA/IL being the largest two corn producers). But the wild card is Wall Street; the discrepancy in the donations is staggering.

My prediction: Right now the enemy is Big Oil, but because of demand destruction and a strengthening dollar, oil will be approximately $100/bbl by October. However, we're going to start seeing the next act of the credit crunch real soon (say, in about a month when 3-5% of college students don't enroll because the student loan market is frozen); Main Street will want blood.

Lo and Behold, who, by far, is in the pocket of Wall Street?

To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a ...

2008-08-05T01:58:55.340-04:00

To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a worthless online interactive poll from mid-July.

Today's national Zogby poll was a regular nationwide telephone poll and it shows McCain ahead by one (a gain of 11 points in a month for McCain).

Three polls in the past week have shown McCain ahead nationwide.

"The One" ad on YouTube spoofing Obama's messiah complex is the best humorous political ad I've seen. Barack's in for a rough Fall.

Virginia Conservative said... Obama's only ener...

2008-08-05T01:56:15.018-04:00

Virginia Conservative said...

Obama's only energy "plan" is to have us check the pressure on our tires.
August 4, 2008 7:05 PM

astonishing. To make a comment like that

You are either

A) Colossally ignorant and misinformed
B) Wilfully dishonest and fundamentally sleazy
C) One of the McCain trolls spreading ignorance like manure in a pig farm
D) All Of The Above

After such idiocy and/or lies, NOTHING you say can be taken seriously. Slink away to drudge and politico and realclear...this site is for people who are sentient and at least a little bit honest.

Wimpy, Obama coasted many times in the primaries a...

2008-08-05T01:32:49.322-04:00

Wimpy,

Obama coasted many times in the primaries and the Clinton's were treating him with kid gloves. Well, the gloves are off and Obama must adjust. Its time to find a message and drive it home. No more coasting.

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Today's Polls, 8/4

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PeteKentThanks for the response. I'll leave Musli...

Michael:Thanks for the response.I haven't been pos...

Michael,The Messaih meme works b/c Obama has stumb...

John NYC--I appreciate the thoguhtful, considerate...

JohnNYC,I agree that in general, the comments are ...

Very interesting piece in pollster.com arguing ver...

Obama up 47-43 in the Gallup tracker. I wonder whe...

OTF said "counsellorben, How obtuse can you be. Wh...

PeteKent:To your lengthy post and several observat...

thatmarvelousape...To your comment "Hmmm, it look...

Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to...

Nobody's going to remember was said this week when...

As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama...

Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) c...

Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is...

Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, make...

Obama is a lover, not a fighter.

Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama l...

Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily ...

"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the ...

To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a ...

Virginia Conservative said... Obama's only ener...

Wimpy, Obama coasted many times in the primaries a...