Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama's Price is Right Negotiating Strategy?

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

2009-10-09T08:10:43.105-04:00

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,

放鬆心情自由自在的來一趟花蓮旅遊，可以感受花蓮民宿各種不同的風味，所以來花蓮一定要住花蓮民宿哦！因為...

2009-08-07T12:18:54.491-04:00

放鬆心情自由自在的來一趟花蓮旅遊，可以感受花蓮民宿各種不同的風味，所以來花蓮一定要住花蓮民宿哦！因為可從花蓮民宿主人那裡分享到不一樣的花蓮旅遊經驗及花蓮美食道地的花蓮小吃，所以來花蓮旅遊不一定就要享受花蓮高級餐廳的花蓮美食也可以多試試道地古早味的花蓮美味哦！來花蓮民宿可以放鬆整個心情，來花蓮電腦住宿也可以放空自已，來花蓮也可以了解在地的文化哦！住民宿其實是很輕鬆的，住花蓮民宿其實是很容易，還有就是現在是高油價的時代，還自行開車來花蓮嗎？來花蓮租車會比較輕鬆哦！來花蓮房屋租車會比較省錢哦！或是可以請花蓮計程車帶您包車旅遊喔!!歡迎來住住美麗的花蓮民宿囉!!一定要讓您來花蓮旅遊並且讓您愛上花蓮民宿，還有團購美食好吃的蜂蜜蛋糕、養顏美容的蜂王乳以及花蓮美食喔!!

キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化ダンボール

2009-07-23T02:27:50.607-04:00

キャッシング
インプラント
クレジットカード　現金化
ダンボール

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...

2009-03-28T05:02:00.000-04:00

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇大眾論壇 plus論壇 080視訊聊天室情色視訊交友90739 美女交友-成人聊天室色情小說做愛成人圖片區豆豆色情聊天室 080豆豆聊天室小辣妹影音交友網台中情人聊天室桃園星願聊天室高雄網友聊天室新中台灣聊天室中部網友聊天室嘉義之光聊天室基隆海岸聊天室中壢網友聊天室南台灣聊天室南部聊坊聊天室台南不夜城聊天室南部網友聊天室屏東網友聊天室台南網友聊天室屏東聊坊聊天室雲林網友聊天室大學生BBS聊天室網路學院聊天室屏東夜語聊天室孤男寡女聊天室一網情深聊天室心靈饗宴聊天室流星花園聊天室食色男女色情聊天室真愛宣言交友聊天室情人皇朝聊天室上班族成人聊天室上班族f1影音視訊聊天室哈雷視訊聊天室 080影音視訊聊天室 38不夜城聊天室援交聊天室080 080哈啦聊天室台北已婚聊天室已婚廣場聊天室夢幻家族聊天室摸摸扣扣同學會聊天室 520情色聊天室 QQ成人交友聊天室免費視訊網愛聊天室愛情公寓免費聊天室拉子性愛聊天室柔情網友聊天室哈啦影音交友網哈啦影音視訊聊天室櫻井莉亞三點全露寫真集 123上班族聊天室尋夢園上班族聊天室成人聊天室上班族 080上班族聊天室 6k聊天室粉紅豆豆聊天室 080豆豆聊天網新豆豆聊天室 080聊天室免費音樂試聽流行音樂試聽免費aa片試看免費a長片線上看色情貼影片免費a長片本土成人貼圖站大台灣情色網台灣男人幫論壇 A圖網嘟嘟成人電影網火辣春夢貼圖網情色貼圖俱樂部台灣成人電影絲襪美腿樂園 18美女貼圖區柔情聊天網 707網愛聊天室聯盟台北69色情貼圖區 38女孩情色網台灣映像館波波成人情色網站美女成人貼圖區無碼貼圖力量色妹妹性愛貼圖區日本女優貼圖網日本美少女貼圖區亞洲風暴情色貼圖網哈啦聊天室美少女自拍貼圖辣妹成人情色網台北女孩情色網辣手貼圖情色網 AV無碼女優影片男女情色寫真貼圖 a片天使俱樂部萍水相逢遊戲區平水相逢遊戲區免費視訊交友90739 免費視訊聊天辣妹視訊 - 影音聊天網 080視訊聊天室日本美女肛交美女工廠貼圖區百分百貼圖區亞洲成人電影情色網台灣本土自拍貼圖網麻辣貼圖情色網好色客成人圖片貼圖區 711成人AV貼圖區台灣美女貼圖區筱萱成人論壇咪咪情色貼圖區 momokoko同學會視訊 kk272視訊情色文學小站成人情色貼圖區嘟嘟成人網嘟嘟情人色網 - 貼圖區免費色情a片下載台灣情色論壇成人影片分享免費視訊聊天區微風成人論壇 kiss文學區 taiwankiss文學區

I don't know how much passing this will help. Econ...

2009-02-13T01:05:00.000-05:00

I don't know how much passing this will help. Economies go through cycles. I read this interesting article on

http://www.recessioninfocenter.com

on previous recessions. We just need to adjust I guess.

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

2009-01-16T04:18:00.000-05:00

i find it amusing that in the photos of the "price...

2009-01-14T16:44:00.000-05:00

i find it amusing that in the photos of the "price is right" example, the contestant who bid $1 is standing behind the blue podium and the contestant who overbid is standing behind the red podium.

just a happy coincidence.

His threat to veto dissenting Democrats on the bai...

2009-01-13T20:05:00.000-05:00

His threat to veto dissenting Democrats on the bailout money suggests that his moderate approach is NOT a game. He's the real deal moderate. I love it! How the Left Was Duped -- movie? novel? both?

Nate,Please take a look at the Wikipedia entry on ...

2009-01-11T23:12:00.000-05:00

Nate,

Please take a look at the Wikipedia entry on the Budget Act of 1974. It outlines bills that cannot be filibustered, and a stimulus bill looks like it qualifies.

This is very important. If it only needs 50 votes Obama can make it far more effective without fear of a Republican filibuster stopping it as Nate Silver assumes in this post, and as I'm sure many others assume.

In the Wikipedia entry you will see that the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 both were NOT filibusterable. Couldn't the stimulus package then be structured so that it's not filibusterable?

Actually, that is not completely obvious. The Demo...

2009-01-11T16:58:00.000-05:00

Actually, that is not completely obvious. The Democrats have plenty enough votes in the House, but in the Senate, they'll need either one or two Republican crossovers to break a filibuster...

But can the stimulus bill be filibustered?!

This is the big question. In general budget bills cannot be filibustered, and often bills can be constructed so that they fit this. Note that the Republican's big tax cuts only needed 50 votes (for example the tax cut of 2006 passed with just 54). It's hard to find a clear answer on this. This part of the law has a lot of gray area, but from what I've seen the stimulus bill might not be filibusterable.

For more on what I found out on this see here.

@ SkepticYes, we need another MN thread from Nate....

2009-01-10T20:24:00.000-05:00

@ Skeptic

Yes, we need another MN thread from Nate.

A new R2000 poll is out (at Daily Kos). MNs want to seat Al Franken "provisionally".

The MSM have not been discussing this possibility of immediately seating Franken. Unfortunately, Reid is making this more difficult with how he is giving Burris such a hard time.

We need to have both Burris and Franken seated next week.

The reason is not just because some critical votes are coming up - but because the Senate is so far putting off assigning committees based on the Nov. 08 results until the IL and MN results are concluded.

For example, next Thurs/Friday Eric Holder may not be approved because the committee will be 9/9 D/R after Biden resigns.
Based on a 59-41 Senate, it would be 11-8 D/R in the Judiciary committee - Thus making a Holder approval routine and a non-issue for the MSM.

Tony C, Do you know what happens when a thirty to...

2009-01-10T18:07:00.000-05:00

Tony C,
Do you know what happens when a thirty ton flywheel spinning at mach 1 fails? Do know what the probability is that we have a least one catastrophic mechanical failure if we're running these flywheels on a scale large enough to stabilize power sources that are only efficient during a particular time of day, or even worse, a particular season? Do you know what happens to the rest of the flywheels in the battery, when one goes boom?

The probability approaches 1, that we'll have an accident that releases energy at a magnitude approaching that of a large nuclear weapon.

This explains why we aren't using the technology, even though we have it.

Joe,Wasn't for a second suggesting you were litera...

2009-01-10T16:14:00.000-05:00

Joe,

Wasn't for a second suggesting you were literally calling Lincoln a "wimp" or that he was personally cold - just trying to use different terms given the inability of sarcasm to translate well in the blogosphere.

I will say, though, that the last lines of the Gettysburg Address weren't necessarily a throwaway. There was a real fear in some sectors in 1863 that representative democracy was doomed. Classicists knew that every attempt at a republic had reverted to imperialism and monarchy in times of extreme strife. It was widely believed a successful secession would likely encourage a further breakdown of the Union into loose confederations more like the South, esp. since many Northern states had threatened secession several times before the 1860s. That result could well have incited foreign powers to swallow up bits and pieces of the former US, especially since many of those same powers had brutally put down attempts at revolution in their home territories (such as the 1848wave of socialist rebellions) and their colonies (the Bolivar movement, recall, left few lasting successes) and really didn't like the idea of a true republic. Even England, while transforming into a republic in all but name in the home island, was conquering the Raj and still treating its colonies under the "virtual representation" that the US had tossed off. So Lincoln may have been extreme, but it was not a foregone conclusion that representative democracy would survive a collapse of the American experiment.

Ramey,

Whole heartedly agree that people who try to turn DKG's analysis into a soundbite (of any kind) are doing her and Lincoln a major disservice. Like I said, people who either assume Clinton/Obama is a "Dream Team" or a "Nightmare Team" don't get the complexities of team dynamics.

To turn to the world of sports, Lincoln to me is a little like Phil Jackson. Lots of people claim he only won because he had the best players and downplay his coaching skills because he's not a screaming, old school type. Still, those "great" players have been far less successful without him, and guys considered flops in other places have succeeded fabulously with him.

Lincoln likewise molded a true "team," and yet for years much of the intellegentsia was sure he was just Seward's mouthpiece, and others remained convinced to the end he was weak-willed, bumbling incompetent, and the country held together in spite of him. If he hadn't been such a brilliant politician, he wouldn't have survived those sorts of attacks for a year, much less 4+.

Potential candidates for 2010

2009-01-10T15:41:00.000-05:00

Potential candidates for 2010

To me it seems that Obama's just delivering exactl...

2009-01-10T14:00:00.000-05:00

To me it seems that Obama's just delivering exactly what he said he would:

1) He's giving us the middle-class tax cut he promised during the campaign with a modest not to small businesses.

2) He's giving us a substantial spending plan (though not too high, with the expectation that it will be negotiated up in Congress).

Are people just so shocked by a politician delivering on his campaign promises that they have to search for some hidden agenda?

I agree with everyone.New topic: Nate is crushing ...

2009-01-10T13:55:00.000-05:00

I agree with everyone.

New topic: Nate is crushing the competition in the Blog Awards. Vote early, vote often. Way to go, Nate.

Make the tax cuts DO something perhaps? What if yo...

2009-01-10T13:28:00.000-05:00

Make the tax cuts DO something perhaps? What if you could get a 70% "loan" on any production machinery that produced new jobs to run and a three year break on any payback.

The way it pays its way is that the Government now gets a higher than normal payback for the remaining 15 years and "Owns" the machinery in any default.

This would leverage small business to start or grow, and provide jobs to those making the machinery (must be mostly US?), thus creating infrastructure in industry for a great deal of bang for the buck and if done smart actually get more revenue in than it would cost.

Count me in with the skeptics, Nate. (Long-time l...

2009-01-10T13:16:00.000-05:00

Count me in with the skeptics, Nate. (Long-time lurker, first-time poster, and a fine job you've done with BP.)

Obama is making a major mistake if he trusts Senate Democrats to do anything more than show up and vote. These are, after all, the same people who got mercilessly manhandled by a President with a 27% approval rating for the last two years. But they were responsible for the "strategy" that gave him the nomination over She Who Must Not Be Named, and thus he'll stick by them regardless of performance.

The Price is Right strategy probably would have worked better if Obama hadn't released the earlier figure of $675 to 775 billion. Pushing the stimulus amount above the range he asked for will give people sticker shock, and will make it tougher for him to get the Blue Dog/ GOP votes he needs. I suspect he'll be held to his first bid.

My prediction is that Obama gets a stimulus package of $750 billion or so- 40% tax cuts, 40% aid to states, only 20% useful- and will feel thoroughly disgusted that he got so little for his political capital.

Sean @ 5:38 pm yesterday hit the nail on the head!...

2009-01-10T13:03:00.000-05:00

Sean @ 5:38 pm yesterday hit the nail on the head! If people see the "netroots" pissed off, they are more likely to think that Obama is doing some RIGHT. Just like on Rick Warren ... most people don't know RW for gays/prop8; they know him for the 40 days book and they LIKE him. So it's a win-win to Obama.

Likewise, I think BO is going to let the Senate Dems do his dirty work; the package will get bolstered, but he will look like a moderate and acting with restraint and intellect.

Remember that Obama won the Dem nomination b/c of great STRATEGY. He is a tactician; I think his presidency will be marked by *getting things done*, in other words, tactical victories!

I read a lot of news, every day, and this is the m...

2009-01-10T12:03:00.000-05:00

I read a lot of news, every day, and this is the most interesting analysis I've seen in weeks. Very nice piece of work. Between your blog and Krugman's, I'm in wonk heaven.

We need another Minnesota Senate Recount thread. T...

2009-01-10T11:37:00.000-05:00

We need another Minnesota Senate Recount thread. This must be a record number of days without one for a while. I saw that one of the TV stations ran a poll and by 59-42 the voters want Coleman to concede and drop the contest.

I predict it will be about $995 billion. Obama wa...

2009-01-10T10:18:00.000-05:00

I predict it will be about $995 billion. Obama wants Republican support, but won't get it if it exceeds 1 trillion dollars. This was already discussed on CNBC.

If Obama wants to get it approved, he should get the Dems. to seat Burris immediately (what Reid is doing is absurd) so that Al Franken can then be seated "provisionally". (The Republicans are going to be obstructionists as they demonstrated with the Auto Loan last month.)

As I understand, Senate committee proportions are being held up until the remaining two contests are settled. By seating Burris and Franken, committees would be set at a 59-41 proportion, instead of the current 51-49, which could even result in Eric Holder not getting approval. Why are we not talking about this important story?

Obama's approach is politically brilliant. He's po...

2009-01-10T09:27:00.000-05:00

Obama's approach is politically brilliant. He's positioned himself in a consistent style, as acknowledging the commonalities of blue and red, as for tax cuts for the middle class, and for major investments in energy, broadband, and education.

This stimulus bill delivers on ALL of those and will maintain his extremely strong approval ratings, giving him a consistent and strong level of political capital to get health care reform passed as well as other policy goals.

Delivering on tax cuts for the middle class is a necessary element, particularly since it was a big part of the 2008 campaign and because Clinton failed to deliver on his 1992 promises.

With the political smarts of Obama and his team, they are playing this so well that it's not necessarily obvious what they are doing, especially as it's so different from the blunt force approach of W. and Rove. But this has so much more potential to deliver on a range of policies and to keep Democrats in office for a long time, which is why you see a weakening of the Republican bench for 2010.

I am opposed to tax cuts in any form.Businesses wi...

2009-01-10T08:55:00.000-05:00

I am opposed to tax cuts in any form.

Businesses will lavish them on executives or just pay off their debts if they are fiscally responsible.

The wealthy will put them in savings, or buy into stocks that have weathered the recession well.

The middle class will just pay off a little of its credit card debt or other debt.

These uses do nothing to stimulate the economy because no product is bought and nobody's work is being used. No shelves get any emptier.

Screw the tax cuts, use that $300B on 10,000 new green electric power plants, geothermal, wind, solar thermal. That would cost $100B, but we need the support services like an electric grid and alternative ways to store power. There are alternatives besides electric batteries, including highly compressed air, which can run a car all day and has zero emissions. Thirty ton vacuum flywheels, rotating at Mach 1, can store massive amounts of energy with near zero losses. We have full scale proofs of these in operation.

Figuring out energy independence is the right way to save the economy and the planet, and if we have to throw a few billion in pork to get two or three senators to vote on it, if we have to locate a few big projects in their states, so be it.

$300B in tax cuts will do nothing and is much too high a price for appeasement, there are thousands of old infrastructure projects and thousands of new ones that would benefit us much more. Spend the money at universities on the research and development the country needs.

OT - I have a quick question: after election night...

2009-01-10T07:40:00.000-05:00

OT - I have a quick question: after election night someone posted a link in the Comments to a comparison between 538 and some other sites, including Politico. I'm doing a paper on Obama and the win; does anyone know the link? I cant find it. Thanks!

Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama's Price is Right Negotiating Strategy?

酒店經紀人, 菲梵酒店經紀, 酒店經紀, 禮服酒店上班, 酒店小姐兼職, 便服酒店經紀, ...

放鬆心情自由自在的來一趟花蓮旅遊，可以感受花蓮民宿各種不同的風味，所以來花蓮一定要住花蓮民宿哦！因為...

キャッシング インプラント クレジットカード 現金化 ダンボール

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看 捷克論壇 微風論壇 ...

I don't know how much passing this will help. Econ...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,...

i find it amusing that in the photos of the "price...

His threat to veto dissenting Democrats on the bai...

Nate,Please take a look at the Wikipedia entry on ...

Actually, that is not completely obvious. The Demo...

@ SkepticYes, we need another MN thread from Nate....

Tony C, Do you know what happens when a thirty to...

Joe,Wasn't for a second suggesting you were litera...

Potential candidates for 2010

To me it seems that Obama's just delivering exactl...

I agree with everyone.New topic: Nate is crushing ...

Make the tax cuts DO something perhaps? What if yo...

Count me in with the skeptics, Nate. (Long-time l...

Sean @ 5:38 pm yesterday hit the nail on the head!...

I read a lot of news, every day, and this is the m...

We need another Minnesota Senate Recount thread. T...

I predict it will be about $995 billion. Obama wa...

Obama's approach is politically brilliant. He's po...

I am opposed to tax cuts in any form.Businesses wi...

OT - I have a quick question: after election night...

キャッシングインプラントクレジットカード　現金化ダンボール

豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看捷克論壇微風論壇 ...