Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Ludicrous

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2009-08-28T02:40:44.131-04:00

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2009-05-13T04:03:00.000-04:00

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2009-04-16T04:01:00.000-04:00

徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, ...

2009-02-09T00:50:00.000-05:00

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2009-02-08T04:36:00.000-05:00

Wow. Just got back from a midtown polling location...

2008-12-02T15:33:00.000-05:00

Wow. Just got back from a midtown polling location here in Atlanta and I was the only one in there. This is going to be ugly :'(

No offense to the new photog, but I miss Brett Mar...

2008-12-02T15:28:00.000-05:00

No offense to the new photog, but I miss Brett Marty's work.

Headline of the week listed on today's RCP website...

2008-12-02T13:51:00.000-05:00

Headline of the week listed on today's RCP website:

Palin, Ludacris Rally Georgia Crowds - Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Wow, a twin billing involving Palin and Ludacris?

Look at that woman's sign in the far right of that...

2008-12-02T13:24:00.000-05:00

Look at that woman's sign in the far right of that photo taken at the Chambliss rally:

"Woman (heart) Sax"

Notice anything?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvfexvihri8&eurl=ht...

2008-12-02T12:46:00.000-05:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pvfexvihri8&eurl=http://www.pinkpanthersblog.com/

This is a commercial for the upcoming movie "Milk". It,s basically a jazzed up speech he gave when he got elected. More relevant now than ever.

Jindal cannot get out of the Republican Primary. ...

2008-12-02T11:00:00.000-05:00

Jindal cannot get out of the Republican Primary. By the GOP formula, states that provide more support for the GOP in the Presidential Primary have more delegates awarded. Under that formula, 64% of the delegates in the 2012 GOP primary will be from the South and Plains.

And, as we know, the South and the Plains states voted heavily against a black man for President of the United States. Texas looked liberal in comparison with their numbers for Obama.

Bobby Jindal will learn what the heart and soul of his chosen party is if he runs for President (Dixiecrats turned conservative Republicans). You or I could have beaten Blanco as a Republican in Louisiana. He is 1%, at best, in Iowa or NH. Race will hurt him among GOP voters.

Bobby Jindal would be an infinitely more difficult...

2008-12-02T09:57:00.000-05:00

Bobby Jindal would be an infinitely more difficult candidate to beat in 2012 than Palin.

That's not saying much.

And Jindal is fundamentally flawed as well. He has thoroughly defined himself in the Bush mold of the right wing. He has four years to perform a makeover, but as of now, the country isn't buying what Jindal is selling. At all.

I don't think one can UNDERestimate Palin herself ...

2008-12-02T09:46:00.000-05:00

I don't think one can UNDERestimate Palin herself - you'd probably need to be a limbo dancer to do that. What one might underestimate is her effect on some groups of voters. But while she clearly appeals to one demographic, any thinking person is going to run in the opposite direction if they see her coming. Aren't they?

AntmaticI'm gonna go ahead and underestimate Palin...

2008-12-02T09:36:00.000-05:00

Antmatic

I'm gonna go ahead and underestimate Palin.

We Democrats should not underestimate Palin. She a...

2008-12-02T09:31:00.000-05:00

We Democrats should not underestimate Palin. She already has political talent and star power, and she will get smarter on the issues over the next 4 years.

Sara A. said, "if you actually HAVE Camerons and M...

2008-12-02T09:24:00.000-05:00

Sara A. said, "if you actually HAVE Camerons and Madisons in your family."

Hey! Easy on my first name surname. It's enough that I have three last names to deal with.

Here's a thought: maybe early voting was down amon...

2008-12-02T08:23:00.000-05:00

Here's a thought: maybe early voting was down among people in the Fulton/Atlanta area because word got around that if you vote early, your vote gets counted late. (?)

wowi'm disgusted all over againgotta get out of th...

2008-12-02T03:53:00.000-05:00

wow
i'm disgusted all over again

gotta get out of this country by 2012

"stop the liberal takeover"
what the hell does that even mean

according to the MN SOS site [which differs from t...

2008-12-02T00:34:00.000-05:00

according to the MN SOS site [which differs from the STrib site #'s] there are only 7 counties that have not completed the recounts with less than 200,000 votes outstanding:

[2 Metro] Hennepin & Ramsey with 7% of the count outstanding - presumably heavily DFL precints left to count [?]

[1 southern near Rochester] Dodge with 40% outstanding, but only about 3257 votes left with a GOP tilt

[2 exurban metro] Scott & Wright have 100% to count this week, and both have strong GOP tilt

[1 SE city] Winona 100% count this week, with a moderate DFL lean]

[1 SW rural] Rock 100% count this week, with strong GOP lean BUT small #'s

by my estimation, the outstanding counties look better for Colmean than Franken - unless the remaining Metro precints are VERY strong inner-city DFLers to offset the Scott & Wright margins for Normean

WOMAN (heart) SAXHa ha.

2008-12-02T00:08:00.000-05:00

WOMAN (heart) SAX
Ha ha.

Darker is correct - the MN state count now has Fra...

2008-12-01T23:48:00.000-05:00

Darker is correct - the MN state count now has Franken with the popular vote LEAD by several thousand [+4237] cumulative with over 90% recounted and a HUGE .15% advantage [despite fewer challenged ballots].

These are the first 'leads' for Franken that I have seen...

The DFL should be trumpeting these #'s LOUDLY !!!
===================================

@ http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20081104/SenateRecount.asp

Precincts Recounted: 93.75% (3872 of 4130) Last update was: 12/1/2008 8:00:01 PM
----------------------------------

Statewide Recount Results for US Senate Totals
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Norm Coleman = 1103291
Nov. 4 Ballots Cast for Al Franken = 1107528 [Al +4237]

Recounted Data Totals Percent
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Coleman (as recounted) 1100922 / 41.37
RECOUNT Number of Ballots for Franken (as recounted) 1105030 / 41.52 [Al +.15%]
RECOUNT Number of All Other Ballots (as recounted) 449235 16.88
RECOUNT COLEMAN and Other Ballots Challenged By FRANKEN 2876 0.11
RECOUNT FRANKEN and Other Ballots Challenged By COLEMAN 3067 0.12

Percentage of Ballots Recounted = 91.13 %

==================================

WV - vagic .... these new #'s appeared like vagic, just in time...

--This is my comment after reading this AND the li...

2008-12-01T23:41:00.000-05:00

--This is my comment after reading this AND the link of to early voting numbers--

Don't forget that the dynamics of early voters will different from the general election. It didn't last as long and the locations and hours were much more limited. Most people with a 9-5 work schedule that doesn't allow for scheduling lee-way wouldn't be able to vote early, whereas they were in the general election.

I think it is possible that there are enough housewives or women working part time jobs (compared to the number of men working part-time) that there would be a small boost in women voting early. I didn't find that surprising at all. It could also explain the change in the African American vote if there is a difference in the time constraints of work schedules between the average African American and the average white Georgian. Of course it would be hard to properly find the data to support that, but it is a possibility.

However, I don't think it looks good for Martin. I think the early voting helped more democrats vote than it did conservatives. If the benefits of early voting are more limited and conservative Georgia voters seem to favor the typical Tuesday election day compared to liberal Georgia voters, then it is a good sign for Chambliss.

The big question is will liberal voters who preferred early voting in the general election, but were unable to vote early in the runoff due to time & distance constraints take the effort to vote before or after work on Tuesday.

Who else remembers when the Republicans wanted to ...

2008-12-01T23:34:00.000-05:00

Who else remembers when the Republicans wanted to alter the "checks and balances" with the so-called "nuclear strategy" to change the Senate cloture requirement by a rule change, predicated on a simple majority?

Huge difference in votes the vote is now 5 in 4k i...

2008-12-01T22:51:00.000-05:00

Huge difference in votes the vote is now 5 in 4k in franke's favor and only 3k challenged according to SOS...WtF even if it was a mix up in numbers still doesn't explain this.

EricI don't know about statistics, but if Florida ...

2008-12-01T22:28:00.000-05:00

Eric

I don't know about statistics, but if Florida beats the #1 team in the nation on a neutral field, they deserve to be ranked no lower than second, and they will be.

Furthermore, since human voters have a lot to say in the BCS, you'll almost certainly see the SEC champion ranked no lower than #2 if for no other reason than voters not wanting an intra-conference national championship game.

A UT-OU rematch in the national championship game went out the window this weekend when Florida and Alabama took care of business in their respective rivalry games. If you're a UT fan, you're breaking out your black and gold face paint this Saturday.