Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Is Dixville Notch Predictive?

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2009-10-02T08:24:54.813-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:31:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:46:00.000-05:00

News in real-time on CNN Election Center 2008Watch...

2008-11-04T17:20:00.000-05:00

News in real-time on CNN Election Center 2008
Watch now:
http://cnn-election.com/2008/index.php?q=Election-Night-Results

I wouldn't say Dixville Notch is "not predictive" ...

2008-11-04T13:46:00.000-05:00

I wouldn't say Dixville Notch is "not predictive" in *any* sense. As I read the numbers, the town has historically INVARIABLY gone for the Republican candidate by a 2-1 or 3-1 margin. That this same town should now go for O by 15-6 definitely shows that something is afoot. But you don't know what it is, do you, Mr. Jones?

Suggestion:we ought to have webcams of all polling...

2008-11-04T12:30:00.000-05:00

Suggestion:
we ought to have webcams of all polling stations coded by precinct number.
Then voters can take a peek to see whether there are lines and decide whether this is a good time to go there. Sure, it cuts both ways, but for people who only have a certain amount of time it doesn't make sense to waste it if it's obvious they won't make it in the time they have (say, lunch or before work).
Someone said earlier: long lines are like a poll tax for the poor. I agree.

@ MysticLakerI am a scientist so of course I am aw...

2008-11-04T12:04:00.000-05:00

@ MysticLaker

I am a scientist so of course I am aware of the importance of sample size. Another way to apply sample size to this particular discussion is to look at the fact that this sample includes 20+ separate election results in this town, and in over 90% of them, the republican has not only won, but dominated. The result that this year, the town has overwhelmingly thrown its support behind Obama is statistically significant in light of historical results and perhaps a sign of the results to come. There are myriad reasons why this result could be skewed, but it is a surprising exception to the historical data, and worth noting.

No, DN isn't predictive -- but that's because the ...

2008-11-04T11:55:00.000-05:00

No, DN isn't predictive -- but that's because the town has never voted for a Democrat before, at least in the modern era. (Wikipedia only has data going back to 1960.) Clinton came in 4th there in 1992, behind Perot and Marrou.

Looking at the internals, Registrations by party in DN were 5 Dems, 4 GOPers, and the rest independent. That means that 10 independents broke for Obama, against 2 for McCain.

First time poster - long time lurker and addict. J...

2008-11-04T11:10:00.000-05:00

First time poster - long time lurker and addict. Just some quick reassurance for anyone getting concerned by reports in the British media - don't. Their coverage has been incredibly superficial and lazy - the only upside is that it forced me and others to check out the web - and discover 538. Good luck America, we've all got our fingers crossed.

Voted for THAT ONE in the red western suburbs of C...

2008-11-04T10:16:00.000-05:00

Voted for THAT ONE in the red western suburbs of Chicago. I was in line before 6 am and when I left at 6:15, the line was out the door.

Just wanted to say THANK YOU to everyone this morning posting their thoughts and personal experiences. The posts by LittleVincent and Cataplexis made me tear up and that does not happen often. Thank you and LET'S GET THIS DONE!!

@Grandpa John:Everyone should read your posts and ...

2008-11-04T10:12:00.000-05:00

@Grandpa John:

Everyone should read your posts and save them for their grandkids. This is what the election is all about.

I live in a red state too (louisiana), but I will toast you tonight as we celebrate a truly national victory.

As an addenduum let me say that since I live in d...

2008-11-04T10:04:00.000-05:00

As an addenduum let me say that since I live in dark(in more ways than one) red state of SC, I am giong to have to depend on those of you in the battleground states to help an old man attain his dreams, so get out there and work and vote for the ones of us who can't directly determine the outcome.
I was determined however to cast my vote for Obama even though I knew I would be on the minority, but I was determined to be able to say that I voted for history and that I voted on the right side of history.

Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?We know more about Jo...

2008-11-04T09:59:00.000-05:00

Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?
We know more about Joe than Barack!
-------------------
Shut up you racist.

In reading the comments, I n oted several that men...

2008-11-04T09:55:00.000-05:00

In reading the comments, I n oted several that mentioned a "christmas morning excitement". Well I must admit that even an old (71) fart like me sort of has that feeling, but then why shouldn't we? We are getting an enormous present today, we are getting our country, our self respect, the respect of the rest of the world back. we are getting the future of our children, our grandchildren,in my case great grandchildren returned to us, so it is a time for rejoicing.
At my age with relatively few years left, I now feel that I can leave the stage knowing the the future of
my grands and great grands looks more secure. I really think that we are going to see a whole new vision of what our country can be and what can be accomplished. I feel more positive for the future than I have in Years. Every time I listen to the one speak and listen to his words, I realize what a truly transcendent and visionary leader he is rather than being a mere politician. The messages of hope and togetherness that echo FDR and JFK during times of great peril.So tonight let let not just party, but have a true celebration of the return of constitutional governing, of rule of law, of competent government and more importantly hope for a better future.

Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?We know more about Jo...

2008-11-04T09:50:00.000-05:00

Buckeye -- who the Eff cares?
We know more about Joe than Barack!

Mrs. B -- I take issue with your post: All my po...

2008-11-04T09:49:00.000-05:00

Mrs. B -- I take issue with your post: All my posts have been great and wise. Ahem! People just are not thinking right this year.

Trust me, Obama, if he governs, as I suspect he wants to will wreck his Presidency in a few short years and he will be like Carter -- an unpleasant blip on a long line of historical improvement for America.

Say what you want about george bush, but he confronted th transcenant eveil of our time and has gravely wounded it. I fear what kind of steward of our security he will be.

Radical Islam (as opposed to the Muslim faith itself as to which I see and feel my spiritual connection) must be confronted and destroyed. You are kidding yourself if you think they want anything less for you!

Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher was stopped by two Tole...

2008-11-04T09:47:00.000-05:00

Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher was stopped by two Toledo police officers after he was clocked going 50mph in a 35 mph zone on Dorr St. last week.
______________________________
I live right off of Dorr St.

I'm not a Hillary fan, but since the Democratic co...

2008-11-04T09:46:00.000-05:00

I'm not a Hillary fan, but since the Democratic convention, her respectability across ther board has grown, her favoarbles are the highest they've ever been. If she were to become Obama's Secretary of State at some point, that'll increase her chances.

Also, if a 72 year old with health problems has a shot, she definately has a shot.

new thread

2008-11-04T09:39:00.002-05:00

new thread

@Real JoeWhat time, if you know?

2008-11-04T09:39:00.001-05:00

@Real Joe

What time, if you know?

folks, there's a Senate thread now.

2008-11-04T09:39:00.000-05:00

folks, there's a Senate thread now.

Pete KentGreat sentiments - and then you went and ...

2008-11-04T09:38:00.000-05:00

Pete Kent
Great sentiments - and then you went and mentioned forests again! (just joking).
I don't agree with your politics but you deserve some kudos for your posts so far today.

zenu-- I understand. I live in Texas, but am hope...

2008-11-04T09:37:00.001-05:00

zenu-- I understand. I live in Texas, but am hopeful that at least my county will go for Obama.

http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/11/the...

2008-11-04T09:37:00.000-05:00

http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/11/the-first-hard.html