Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Make your own North Carolina prediction

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2009-10-09T06:42:23.610-04:00

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2009-08-03T23:20:12.887-04:00

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2009-03-11T03:46:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-11T03:46:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-10T21:26:00.000-05:00

People forget that there a lot of people in NC who...

2008-05-06T15:30:00.000-04:00

People forget that there a lot of people in NC who are registered Democrats who haven't voted Democrat in 30 years but will turn out to vote against Obama because he is black. They wouldn't dare vote for Clinton in the Fall but they will do everything they can to make sure a Black person does not get the nomination. Sad but true

Whites: Clinton 70 percent Blacks: Clinton 15 perc...

2008-05-06T15:25:00.000-04:00

Whites: Clinton 70 percent
Blacks: Clinton 15 percent

Turnout for Blacks: 35 percent

Pay attention to how many Hispanics turn out. NC has a larger Hispanic population than most people realize.

actually you can use the CNN or Forbes delegate co...

2008-05-05T22:21:00.000-04:00

actually you can use the CNN or Forbes delegate counter just pretend the percentages means percentage of delegates instead of popular vote. Thats what i did and got some numbers pretty close to the actual results

Love the tool! My prediction is:White vote:Clinton...

2008-05-04T16:11:00.000-04:00

Love the tool! My prediction is:

White vote:
Clinton:
67%

Obama:
32%

Black turnout = 35%

Black vote:
Clinton:
10%

Obama:
90%

End result:
Clinton - 47.1%
Obama - 52.3%
= Obama +5.2%

I actually think the black vote might be 91% for Obama. I think it'll be 89% for black women, and 93% for black men. I think black women make up a much larger percentage of the black turnout, though.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/1/145210/...

2008-05-03T15:55:00.000-04:00

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/1/145210/9316/925/503525

This should be accurate as well.

I am really hoping you will turn your demographics...

2008-05-03T15:11:00.000-04:00

I am really hoping you will turn your demographics model on NC with a district by district prediction like you did for Penn.

Technically it´s nothing special, but that tool is...

2008-05-03T14:56:00.000-04:00

Technically it´s nothing special, but that tool is nice.
I just wanted to report a new NY poll:
RasmussenReports, Obama +17, Clinton +29, taken 4/299, n=500

True enough. But it's something. It gives a rough ...

2008-05-02T23:21:00.000-04:00

True enough. But it's something. It gives a rough idea. And with randomly declaring superdelegates thrown in the mix, any model a week or so out is only going to be so accurate.

CNN's delegate calculator acts as if all delegates...

2008-05-02T22:29:00.000-04:00

CNN's delegate calculator acts as if all delegates are at-large.

So it isn't really a useful tool.

@ bedir:CNN has a delegate calculator on their sit...

2008-05-02T21:39:00.000-04:00

@ bedir:

CNN has a delegate calculator on their site (I don't have an exact link). You can calculate %s here and plug them in over there for all the states that are left.

Sweet. I'm getting +13 Obama here, hopefully it'll...

2008-05-02T21:26:00.000-04:00

Sweet. I'm getting +13 Obama here, hopefully it'll be even higher.

mehIt is a delegate race first and foremost. Can ...

2008-05-02T19:10:00.000-04:00

meh

It is a delegate race first and foremost. Can you have it pump out the delegate numbers for me?

The early voting so far has close to 39% African-A...

2008-05-02T18:28:00.000-04:00

The early voting so far has close to 39% African-Americans voting. It won't necessarily be that high in total, but it would appear to be a sign that either African-Americans are more engaged in the election on average or Obama's get out the vote operation is a little better than Clinton's. I figure 35% African-Americans breaking 91-9 for Obama and Clinton winning whites 63-37 for an 11.8% Obama win.

Well, this tool is the best demonstration possible...

2008-05-02T14:48:00.000-04:00

Well, this tool is the best demonstration possible that Obama ain't gonna lose NC. My conservative hypotheses are 33% Black turnout, Clinton winning non-Blacks 2 to 1 and Obama winning Blacks 9 to 1. Obama still wins by 4.

Despite his turbulent weeks, it will be double dig...

2008-05-02T14:44:00.000-04:00

Despite his turbulent weeks, it will be double digits for Obama - by God's special grace.

In a moment of honesty, John McCain agrees that the war in Iraq was for oil. There's no way he's going to spin this - unless he thinks the American people are fools.

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/MCCAIN_IRAQ_WAR_WAS_FOR_OIL

Just replace "John Edwards" with "Uncommitted/Grav...

2008-05-02T14:40:00.000-04:00

Just replace "John Edwards" with "Uncommitted/Gravel" (which are both on the ballot).

Incidentally, I'm getting Obama +15.7% (I project that African American turnout will be about 38%, which is about 75% of the portion of Kerry's vote which was African American in North Carolina).

Edwards is not on the ballot.

2008-05-02T13:42:00.000-04:00

Edwards is not on the ballot.