Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Can Franken Give Burris His Daily Affirmation?

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2009-10-09T08:28:44.650-04:00

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I don't think it really matters if the Democrats s...

2009-01-06T00:49:24.720-05:00

I don't think it really matters if the Democrats seat Burris or not. The Democratic party is not like the Republican party. They're much more fractured, and in recent years, the Democrats have a lot more Blue Dog members too. It's not like the Democrats would vote 59 votes vs. the Republicans 41, and fail to break a fillibuster. Remember two of those "Democratic" votes are independents, and one belongs to Joe Lieberman.

My bet is that at least 8 to 10 Democrats will fail to vote to end a filibuster. Even back in the 1960s and 1970s when the Democrats actually had over 60 seats, they still couldn't over end a filibuster, most which were done by their own members.

What will make a difference is Obama's popularity and political skill. As I pointed out, Nixon would appoint a Democrat to a federal judgeship in states that had two Democratic senator. A similar trick will keep Republicans from filibustering.

Even the reddest of the states has large pockets of Democrats. No Republican senator wants Obama swooping in on their state, getting massive crowds, and appearing on the 6 o'clock news. Such an act may not make a state vote blue, but it might encourage a Republican challenger if the incumbent is made to look weak.

A popular president who isn't afraid to tweak a Senator nose can have quite a bit of say in whether a filibuster is breakable or not.

Mike in Maryland.Going back to Illinios.If Governo...

2009-01-05T20:30:48.816-05:00

Mike in Maryland.

Going back to Illinios.

If Governor's are barred from making temporary appointments to the United States Senate.

A special primary election would take place one month before the special general election.

nkpolitics1279 said...Had Wynn won the Democratic ...

2009-01-05T15:50:03.160-05:00

nkpolitics1279 said...
Had Wynn won the Democratic primary and decided to resign. The MD-4 Democratic Party committee would select a Replacement candidate for the Special Election.

Incorrect.

Incorrect.

Incorrect.

The law at the time stated that the date of the resignation of Al Wynn took place AFTER the last date for a Special Election. The law at the time stated that if a special primary is held to fill a vacant House seat, party primaries would be held, and then the winners of the primaries PLUS any others to be included on the ballot (Independents, 3rd parties, etc.) would face off in a 'general election'.

Because Maryland didn't want the seat to be vacant for six months (as would be the case with the then-current law), the Governor and state legislature changed the law to provide for a special election to fill the seat. It was coincidental that the special election fell in a Presidential-election year, and the party primaries had been held - if it had happened two years before, or two years later, the primaries would have been held in September, after the date of Wynn's resignation.

Therefore, the amended law provided for the winners of the already conducted primaries to be nominated by their respective parties, dispensing of the need for a primary for the special election, and the special election proceeded to the 'general election' phase.

If Wynn's resignation had occurred two years before or two years after, no primary would have been held at the time of the resignation, no nominees would have been picked for the November general election, and (if the legislature wanted a special election to fill the vacancy) a primary (under then-current law) would have been held to pick the nominees for the 'general election' phase of the special election. Or the legislature might have just moved up the September primary to an earlier date, and provided that the winners of the primary for the special election would be the nominees for the November general election also.

The above PROVES that the law can be changed at any time, depending on the circumstances, who is in power, and what political outcome the parties want to achieve. And depending on the circumstances can determine HOW the law is changed to fit those circumstances.

Minnesota Supreme Court shoots down Coleman's last...

2009-01-05T13:04:31.080-05:00

Minnesota Supreme Court shoots down Coleman's last (?) challenge:

http://www.twincities.com/allheadlines/ci_11372096?nclick_check=1

Mike in Maryland.Regarding the MD-4 CD Special Ele...

2009-01-05T12:10:15.673-05:00

Mike in Maryland.
Regarding the MD-4 CD Special Election Race.

Al Wynn resigned after he lost in the Democratic Primary. The Democratic and Republican Nominee for the MD-4 CD race has been decided. The primary is unnecessary.

Had Wynn won the Democratic primary and decided to resign. The MD-4 Democratic Party committee would select a Replacement candidate for the Special Election.

Mike in Maryland-Individual States have different ...

2009-01-05T12:01:41.439-05:00

Mike in Maryland-

Individual States have different set of rules when it comes to Special Elections. That is including the Primary process in the special Election. However Special Elections for US Senate Races are different from Special Elections for US House Races.

When a vacancy occurs in the US House of Representative. The Governor is unable to make temporary appointments for seats in the US House of Representatives so they schedule a Special Election Primary Date and Special General Election 90-120 days after the vacancy occurs.
When it comes to the US Senate- Most states Governors make a temporary appointment for a VACANT US Senate Seat. Then a Special Election for the VACANT US Senate Seat takes place which occurs on the same day as the upcoming November US Senate Races in other States. ie. If a US Senator whose term does not expire in Nov 2012 dies or resigns on Jan 2009. The Governor appoints- the Special Election takes place on November 2010.
In some States- Governors are barred from making Temporary appointments for VACANT US Senate Seats. Special Election occurs 90-120 days after VACANCY occurs.

You also have to look at the month/year when vacancy take place.

regular US Senate/US House Elections take place in a Even year number.

Here are different scenarios in determining whether a Special Primary election takes place.

1)In Maryland- Ben Cardin's US Senate term does not expire in November 2012. MD primaries for US Senate or US House Races take place in February/September. If Ben Cardin resigns from Office before the February or September 2010 primaries of US Congressional Races. A primary for the Special Election takes place on Feb or Sept 2010 same day as the regular primary elections. The special general election takes place November 2010.
If Cardin resigned After the Feb or Sept 2010 primaries- The Party Elders of the Democratic and Republican nominee select their candidates to compete in the November 2010 general election.
Maryland's other US Senator Mikulski's Senate Term expires in November 2010. If Mikulski resigns before the Feb/Sept Primaries- The Special Primary Election takes place Feb or Sept 2010(same day as the regular primary election and the General Election takes place in November 2010). If Mikulski resigns after the Feb/Sept 2010 Primaries. The Primaries are unnecessary because the Republican Nominee has been decided. On the Democratic side - If Mikulski won the Democratic nomination- The MD Democratic Elders select a Replacement Nominee in the November 2010 General Election.

Are you sure of your facts? When the cloture rule...

2009-01-05T10:47:31.780-05:00

Are you sure of your facts? When the cloture rule was changed (in 1970s, I think) from two-thirds, it was changed to a flat 60, irrespective of the number of Senators present in the chamber. Has it changed again, or was there a contingent rule based on total seats?

I still want Patterson to appoint Jon Stewart- I s...

2009-01-05T07:06:55.221-05:00

I still want Patterson to appoint Jon Stewart- I still think Franken and Stewart could form the backbone of a whole new strategy for the Democratic Senators.

It was no joke that Stewart got those Peabody awards.

Also who is up for Ted Kennedy's seat? I bet/hope he resigns once the inauguration is over. He will do the "gracious statesman" once we have safely seated the first African American POTUS and the first Female Kennedy has taken the "baton of courage".

May be that is what is going on in NY- TK promises to give the MA seat to a sure healthy vote once CK has Hillary's seat.

TK does deserve to hold on to that seat until BHO is sworn in

wv-Pokel what Al and Jon could do to the absurdity of the Republican Senators.

nkpolitics1279 first said...The primary process in...

2009-01-05T05:24:10.978-05:00

nkpolitics1279 first said...
The primary process in a Special Election is closed.

No doubt that a Republican can't vote in a Democratic primary, or vice versa, right????

But on paragraph later, nkpolitics1279 said...
In most states primaries are closed.

So in some states a Republican CAN vote in a Democratic primary, and vice versa, right????

Do I see some contradictory information????

FYI - I know that in some states, a voter who is registered as a Democrat CAN vote in the Republican primary, and vice versa. Alabama is one such state. Indiana is another. Michigan. Mississippi. Missouri. North Dakota (because no party is registered - you only have to prove you've been a resident of the state for 30 days). Tennessee. Vermont. Washington state. Wisconsin.

BTW - In Virginia, the state party can decide to hold a caucus to nominate a candidate, rather than hold a primary. If both parties decide to hold a primary, then Virginia is an open primary state. Other states also have a modification of the open primary vote, with certain restrictions in place.

In California, parties may allow voters who decline to state their party affiliation to participate in their primaries. Democrats currently allow registered Democrats and independents to vote in their primary. Republicans currently have a closed primary.

I guess that blows your "Special Election is closed" statement out of the water, doesn't it????

And nkpolitics1279, since I live in Maryland, I have a good idea what the politics are in the state, and why the legislature made the change in the law for the Maryland 4th Congressional District election in 2008, including the reason for the change in rules for not holding a primary in the MD-4th special election.

As to the timing of 'primaries' for a 'special election', are you sure that every time interval you gave is correct? Are you sure that every state has the same rules for when the primary is held?

Doesn't the Maryland 4th Congressional District special election demonstrate to you that laws can change, and ARE changed, if and when the political establishment in a state decides to change the laws on special elections? After all, if the law had not been changed for the MD-4th, there would not have been a special election, as Congressman Wynn's resignation date would have been after the date the then-current law specified for a special election to fill the vacancy.

If you didn't know, in Maryland the primary elections are (currently) held in February for Presidential elections (and usually, but not always, for other elections that will occur that year); whenever the municipality wants them for local elections; and in September for non-Presidential, non-municipal, elections.

For one election cycle, the City of Baltimore held elections for city offices in September of non-Presidential election even-numbered years, but the General Election was held in the odd-numbered year after the election. Puzzled by that? It allowed some, but not all, citizens who had attained their 16th birthday to vote in city elections. Crazy, right?

We had a set of elections for city offices where the term of office was for five years, then a term of three years, but the primaries for those elections were every four years. Real crazy, right?

Don't worry - now the primary for city offices is held two months before the General Election, because the law was changed.

AND SO IT CAN BE FOR FILLING VACANCIES IN SENATE SEATS IN ANY STATE. What is law today might change tomorrow, or the next day. Depends on what the circumstances are, who's in power, and which party they want to help or hurt.

P.S., also in case you didn't know, the City of Baltimore is designated as an Independent City by the State of Maryland. It is not a county, nor is it part of any other county. Virginia, Missouri and Nevada are the only other states that allow such designations of cities. You might have heard of some of them? Alexandria? St. Louis? Carson City?

Nate,or the Dems could be ethical and NOT seat Bur...

2009-01-05T03:49:31.696-05:00

Nate,

or the Dems could be ethical and NOT seat Burris who's been shameful in this whole episode.

surprised you would support his seating for some short-term political advantage.

Mike in MarylandRegarding the Special Election in ...

2009-01-05T03:23:57.129-05:00

Mike in Maryland

Regarding the Special Election in Maryland 4th CD. The circumstances that caused the Special election in that race was different.
The prior incumbent in MD-4th CD resigned after he lost in the Regular Primary Election to Donna Edwards. Republicans selected their candidate in the Regular primary election. Because the Primary took place before The special Election Primary was unnecesary.

In Illinios- The prior incumbent resigned Mid November of an even year number. The Primaries in IL take place in Feb/March- (Illinios has an early primary in State and local races. Primary takes place in Feb. General election takes place in March- New Senator gets seated in March 2009.

Mike in Maryland. Most States the General Special ...

2009-01-05T03:07:23.524-05:00

Mike in Maryland. Most States the General Special Election for a US Senate Race occurs on the same day as the Upcoming November Congressional election. The Primary Process will take place the same day as the regular Primary Day. The primary process in a Special Election is closed.

In States where Special Elections take place 100 days after Vacancy. The Special election primary takes place 1 month before the Special General Election. In most states primaries are closed.

The Primaries in Illinios take place in Feb or March 2009- This will be for Local Races. The Special Election Primary for the US Senate can take place the same day as the Regular Primary Election for Municipal Races in every County. The General takes place one month after the Primary Elections.

The US Senate will include.3-Jeffs-4-Dicks-1-Lisa4...

2009-01-05T02:52:03.652-05:00

The US Senate will include.
3-Jeffs-
4-Dicks-
1-Lisa
4-Marks
11-Johns
1-Blanche
1-Diane
2-Babs-
3-Mikes
2-Chris
1-Joe
4-Toms
2-Teds
1-Bill
1-Mel
1-Saxby
2-Dans
5-Jims
1-Roland
1-Evan
2-Chucks
2-Pats
1-Sam
1-Mitch
1-Mary
1-David
1-Olympia
1-Susie
2-Bens
1-Carl
1-Debbie
1-Amy
1-Al
1-Thad
1-Roger
1-Claire
1-Max
1-Harry
1-Judd
1-Jean
1-Frank
5-Bobs
1-Carol
2-Kays
1-Kent
1-Byron
1-George
1-Sherrod
1-Ron
1-Arlen
1-Sheldon
1-Lindsey
1-Tim
1-Lamar
1-Orrin
1-Bernie
1-Patty
1-Maria
1-Russ
1-Herb.

Nate the Actuary!

2009-01-05T02:27:03.458-05:00

Nate the Actuary!

that would be a good topic for Nate to do another ...

2009-01-05T02:17:54.268-05:00

that would be a good topic for Nate to do another thread on predicting which other senate seats & how many of them will likely change placeholders before 2010

let's see his odds...

DCM-Yeah,I think you're right about Biden.(Posting...

2009-01-05T02:14:34.957-05:00

DCM-

Yeah,I think you're right about Biden.

(Posting on two threads at this hour for a man of my age is exhausting.)

IF those 6 senate seats do change before 2010, tha...

2009-01-05T02:12:04.978-05:00

IF those 6 senate seats do change before 2010, that would be at least 20 new senators in this congress - WOW !

I understood that Biden was not gonna resign his s...

2009-01-05T02:09:45.761-05:00

I understood that Biden was not gonna resign his seat until Jan 19th ???

that is right, NK - I forgot about those 3 ol' codgers from HI + NJ, so along with MA, WV & SD that puts alot of other seats at risk of turnover in the near term...

nkpolitics1279,,Nice list.HoweverYou do not addres...

2009-01-05T02:08:21.737-05:00

nkpolitics1279,,

Nice list.

However

You do not address the question of how a special election, called for in 47 states, is handled. Is it a primary, then an election with the only the winners of the various party primaries? Is it a winner take all special election? There are a lot of 'A Special Election will be held' comments, but no specifics on those special elections.

In the other three states (Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming), you neglect to list if, how and when an election is held. Requirement for a special election within a certain time period? At the next general election? When, or if, the governor determines?

You also did not address the question of the legislature changing the rules for elections at any time. For example, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland%27s_4th_congressional_district_special_election,_2008 on how Maryland changed the law to allow for a special election without party primaries to determine who would run in the special election to fill the vacant 4th Congressional District seat.

Aren't 10 new Democratic senators being sworn in o...

2009-01-05T02:02:39.664-05:00

Aren't 10 new Democratic senators being sworn in on Tuesday? Marc Ambinder of Delaware will be seated as Biden resigned .

(Five Mark/Marc's.)

Looking at US Senators who are in poor health or o...

2009-01-05T01:51:13.578-05:00

Looking at US Senators who are in poor health or over 80.

The Hawaii Senators- Governor Linda Lingle(R) has to appoint one of the 3 Democratic candidates selected by the HI-Democratic Party Committee. (

MA,NJ and WV have Democratic Governors.

SD- we are screwed if something happens to Johnson.

typo - that was supposed to be 3 new 'MARKS' in th...

2009-01-05T01:41:33.715-05:00

typo - that was supposed to be 3 new 'MARKS' in the freshman senate class

We should get rid of the Senate Ethics committee a...

2009-01-05T01:41:12.820-05:00

We should get rid of the Senate Ethics committee and take away the US Senates power of expelling a member from office.

If the US Senator misbehaves- The voters in the US Senator's homestate should have the right to recall that US Senator from office by petition- Recall Election would occur during the same time as the upcoming Primary or General Election.

Regarding a Vacancy- Governor makes a temporary appointment and must set a Special election Date 100 days after a vacancy occurs.

that is 9 new senators [2 named Mark]and at least ...

2009-01-05T01:40:19.103-05:00

that is 9 new senators [2 named Mark]

and at least 5 more seats to be refilled [DE, CO2, NY, MN & IL]

so at least 14 new senators - did I miss any ?

maybe Kennedy in MA & Byrd in WV soon too

plus who knows if other Senators will still give up their seats/retire [like Lott did] or accept other posts during the next 2 years...

that is tremendous turn-over

now if we could just get rid of Reid as Majority bleeder