Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: What Are the Chances of a Depression?

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2009-10-09T08:13:42.787-04:00

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2009-03-28T05:04:00.000-04:00

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Chris is sorta right. The contract includes 2008, ...

2009-01-27T15:07:00.000-05:00

Chris is sorta right. The contract includes 2008, but the contraction has to be in 4 consecutive quarters, such as FY08Q4-FY09Q3.

Also, I'm embarrassed for Nate that he lists this as one of his featured posts after it's been explained to him multiple times that his understanding of the InTrade market is completely wrong. Which is a shame. I can no longer rely on 538.com to be a reliable source of information

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2009-01-16T04:21:00.000-05:00

...but Intrade is not as accurate as someone belie...

2009-01-13T20:23:00.000-05:00

...but Intrade is not as accurate as someone believes. They did predict Sarah Palin was going to be ousted. Well, it didn't happen did it?

Was the contract trading at 100%? I'm guessing it was barely above 50, but let's give you the benefit of the doubt and say it was 90. If Intrade traders are perfect predictors, 1 out of every 10 contracts at 90 will be for events that don't happen, at which point stupid people on the internet get to say that Intrade is inaccurate when in fact it was exactly right. It's like the opposite of Crossing Over: Everyone ignores it when a 90% event happens and picks on the 1 in 10 that expire at zero, claiming this is some sort of failure.

How comparable are the measurements of 25% unemplo...

2009-01-12T18:22:00.000-05:00

How comparable are the measurements of 25% unemployment in the Great Depression to the unemployment figure used today? I understand that Unemployment Insurance forms the basis of the primary method of computing unemployment, and Unemployment Insurance is a New Deal program that did not exist until after the peak of the Great Depression, and misses a lot of people. The secondary method is a survey, but I suspect that it is adjusted somehow to come out closer to the Unemployment-based measure. How comparable is it to the method used in 1932?

Sorry Lock, but Intrade is not as accurate as some...

2009-01-12T04:54:00.000-05:00

Sorry Lock, but Intrade is not as accurate as someone believes. They did predict Sarah Palin was going to be ousted. Well, it didn't happen did it?

Nate, what you have accomplished is admirable, but...

2009-01-11T15:23:00.000-05:00

Nate, what you have accomplished is admirable, but you are rapidly becoming as unreliable and superficial as the MSM you so often criticize.

If you had read the rules of the Intrade Depression contract you would have said the exact opposite thing about it -- that it is underpriced, not overpriced.

And as for your criticisms of the prediction markets, you are over zealous and perhaps slightly arrogant. True, there is money to be made on Intrade, as there is in any market. But please take it to heart that in this case, the market you wrote a post to criticize has it right (though the def. of Depression is poor), the mainstream economists have it right, and you, Sir, have it wrong.

With best wishes,
ABD

Apparently--I'm sure other commentators will have ...

2009-01-09T13:27:00.000-05:00

Apparently--I'm sure other commentators will have pointed this out--we are already in double-digit unemployment according to the metrics used before a revision in the mid-1990s. Should we be paying attention to those earlier ways to calculate unemployment? Why were they changed?

Exactly, Flaneur, and IIRC, that doesn't account f...

2009-01-09T12:59:00.000-05:00

Exactly, Flaneur, and IIRC, that doesn't account for the burgeoning prison population (~1.5% of all work-age males, I believe), and I'd be curious how much flight into another deliberately uncounted category (full-time students) is a factor as people choose another survival strategy of sorts.

While the survey method for generating unemployment statistics was adopted just before WW2, I do wonder how much they really capture a significantly different kind of labor market with different outlets than we had during the Great Depression.

(I know, it isn't quite a case of picking grad school or criminal enterprise, decisions, decisions...)

Nate:Aren't we already in double digit unemploymen...

2009-01-09T12:28:00.000-05:00

Nate:

Aren't we already in double digit unemployment? Which of the 6 indices matters? I'd love to read your thoughts.

Bureau of Labor Statistics: Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. December 2008

2.9%, 4.2%, 7.2%, 7.6%, 8.3%, 13.5%

How would you like to be labeled "underutilized"?

Ludwig once said economics is not a science capab...

2009-01-09T10:49:00.000-05:00

Ludwig once said economics is not a science capable of quantitative predictions. So, I would love to see Nate prove that

Nate:You may want to use the PECOTA/538 method to ...

2009-01-09T07:45:00.000-05:00

Nate:

You may want to use the PECOTA/538 method to predict the economy.

My thought would be to agregate leading indicators, weighting them based on their predictive ability.

Hey that's right-- the photo isn't Walker Evans at...

2009-01-09T03:59:00.000-05:00

Hey that's right-- the photo isn't Walker Evans at all, THIS one was Evans:

http://xroads.virginia.edu/~UG97/fsa/evanspegs/evans3.jpg

The other's Lange-- which means it's not in the public domain....

BTW, that great Walker Evans photo was the product...

2009-01-09T03:54:00.000-05:00

BTW, that great Walker Evans photo was the product of a WPA project (!)

@Mark A-Thanks- a very helpful read. My Dad likes ...

2009-01-08T22:18:00.000-05:00

@Mark A-

Thanks- a very helpful read. My Dad likes to blame the Community Reinvestment Act. I did not take the bait- But next time it comes up I will send him this link.

Thanks again-

Jake and JesseLivermore are right - I've checked t...

2009-01-08T20:14:00.000-05:00

Jake and JesseLivermore are right - I've checked the forum and postings on Intrade. However, the contract at Intrade also includes the last quarter of 2008. If the GDP for Q4 2008 goes down 6% and the economy contracts by 4% in Q1 2009 the contract at Intrade expires. At 40% this market is way underpriced. At the same time it does not meet the more common definition of a depression. READ THE RULES BEFORE BETTING ON THIS MARKET!!!

@mhz,Perhaps I could have phrased that better. By ...

2009-01-08T20:09:00.000-05:00

@mhz,
Perhaps I could have phrased that better. By "mechanical" I was referring to the interaction of fundamentals. For example, it was clear that housing was overpriced and was due for a correction. One could concievably have modeled the trajectory of that correction and the effects that it would have on other variables (such as the financial markets). But what one could not model was the moment that the financial markets went into an absolute state of panic on September 15th. That was psychological in nature and personally don't believe it was possible to predict that moment with econometrics (at least as it currently exists). With respect to your reference to regulation and the causes of the current crisis I pretty much agree with Menzie Chinn (someone who was assigned reading in one of my courses). He believes that most of the blame can be attributed to poor regulatory and tax policy starting in 1997 but proceeding throughout the Bush years. I think he summarized the causes pretty well here:

http://www.straightstocks.com/global-economics/stuff-happens-the-bush-administrations-economic-stewardship/

Based on his opinion as to what were the causes, I think it should be pretty clear how public policy needs to change in the future in order to prevent this from happening again. But most macroeconomists I know are too busy thinking right now about how to stabilize the economy so that this doesn't turn into a full blown depression.

John M.:I fear that the world cannot accomodate 9-...

2009-01-08T19:26:00.000-05:00

John M.:

I fear that the world cannot accomodate 9-10 billion. Tripp said the world can sustain maybe 3 billion, and that figure is a bit higher than I have seen others quote, but that value is at least in the ballpark.

It isn't just energy. Basics like food and water would perhaps the be the greatest challenge. We have extracted fish from the oceans at such a rate that populations are plummeting. Modern agriculture requires lots of petrochemicals for fertilizers and pesticides. And in our breadbasket we make heavy use of irrigation water that we pump from underground aquifers, and the water levels in these aquifers are steadily dropping, and they will eventually be completely drained. There are many more such examples that have many of us concerned right now.

Photo attribution:The woman is Florence Owens Thom...

2009-01-08T19:12:00.000-05:00

Photo attribution:
The woman is Florence Owens Thompson
The photographer is Dorothea Lange

Here are some interesting reads:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florence_Owens_Thompson
http://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/128_migm.html
http://memory.loc.gov/pnp/fsa/8b29000/8b29500/8b29516v.jpg

Ok how embarrassing I had no idea how complicated ...

2009-01-08T19:00:00.000-05:00

Ok how embarrassing I had no idea how complicated the technical the definition of asset is- my bad I am not an economist and I have NO training whatsoever in accounting or economics.

Still the phrase, "Troubled Asset", makes me smile. I cannot help think of problematic but talented or effective people.

Robert Downey Jr

AL Franken

Bill O"Riely

You have to read the contract rules, Nate. If the ...

2009-01-08T18:32:00.000-05:00

You have to read the contract rules, Nate. If the sum of the quarterly declines is greater than 10% over 4 quarters, then the contract pays off. That means for InTrade purposes, they've re-defined a depression as a 2.5% decline in real GDP. That's why it's trading at 30%.

For expiry purposes a depression is defined as a cumulative decline in GDP of more than 10.0% over four consecutive quarters. This is calculated by adding together the published (annualized) GDP figures (as detailed below). If these annualised figures add up to more than -10.0% over four consecutive quarters then the contract will expire at 100.

It's really poorly worded. But, you should update your post to be accurate.

@Mark AThanks for the post-very interesting and in...

2009-01-08T17:28:00.000-05:00

@Mark A
Thanks for the post-very interesting and informative. So when you say

"And, although there is a mechanical aspect to all major booms and busts, psychology plays a major role in their timing."

I am kinda-sorta equating
"unregulated money-changing" (my words) with "mechanical aspects". What might be a better way to understand your use of the term "mechanical aspects"? Can you give me some examples of "mechanical aspects". I am guessing insufficient regulatory statues and enforcement might qualify, but actual examples would be greatly appreciated.

Also I am still a little unclear on another point. If the "mechanistic aspects" for a crisis are in place does human psychology/behavior only influence when the crisis hits? I am assuming that subsequent policy can have an impact on how long and how bad the crisis is.

I was happy to hear that they will be talking about standardizing the international financial regulatory processes and systems at the next G20. I am guessing this effort will be similar to the work that the ICH has been attempting with pharmaceuticals. Regulation is VERY tough work, but it is certainly worth the effort. Even with all its faults I am thankful for the FDA. Melamine in in infant formula is fortunately something I do not have to be personally vigilant about.

TARP stands for Troubled Assets Relief Rrogram right?
What exactly is a Troubled Asset- It is just TOO FUNNY. Orwell anyone?

Would an exceptionally talented employee with a drinking problem qualify as a troubled asset? I mean if an asset is really that troubled would it actually be an asset?

A couple points about the broader picture here (no...

2009-01-08T17:15:00.000-05:00

A couple points about the broader picture here (not the political argument in the last third of the thread).

First of all, global population is projected to level off around 9-10 billion in the 2040-2075 timeframe.

Second, there is plenty of energy to go around for centuries if we are willing to go to breeder reactors (proliferation threat, unfortunately) or solar prices continue to fall, and people are willing to change to small EV's (or not, if battery technology improves dramatically). Energy and transportation prices may or may not be cost-competitive with today's fossil fuels, but they won't be more than 2x as expensive.

Third, it's ridiculously expensive to colonize somewhere as hostile and distant as Mars. I can't help but think that a colony in Siberia would be 10-100x more cost-effective as a place to move surplus population, as it's right here, has more sunlight, breathable atmosphere, etc.... Oddly you don't hear much about that idea.

...the Bush administration spent eight years putti...

2009-01-08T16:42:00.000-05:00

...the Bush administration spent eight years putting politics ahead of policy (e.g., Dick Cheney's statement after the 2002 midterm elections that "Deficeits don't matter")

Yes, and Democrats sitting idly by as well, not saying a word to the contrary but rather cheerleading as an open floodgate of capital (made possible by the "deregulation" liberals so vehemently denounce) allowed many in the lower and working classes, and especially minorities, that couldn't otherwise afford big ticket purchases, such as homes, to buy those things, even though it was unsustainable for them to keep doing and pushing prices to where they did with money they didn't really have by living outside of their means.

Democrats - or more directly, Liberals - cheerlead de-regulation and market access when it provides a boon for their so-called constituency, the poor, some middle-class, and minorities, but they use it to demonize Repubs/conservatives when things go awry.

Bottom line: you can't have your cake and eat it too.