Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: The Myth of the 'Lag'

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2009-10-03T04:52:37.786-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:23:00.000-04:00

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2009-03-12T05:22:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:29:00.000-05:00

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2009-01-17T04:56:00.000-05:00

For Blue in CO, the Obama rally is in Pueblo, I th...

2008-10-31T13:04:00.000-04:00

For Blue in CO, the Obama rally is in Pueblo, I think gates open at 1 and event starts at 3.

Any individual state poll may not lag the national...

2008-10-30T00:35:00.000-04:00

Any individual state poll may not lag the national trackers. But earlier in the campaign, I think there was a lag in aggregates like yours just because there wasn't a poll in every significant state every day.

You could see that in the days around the conventions, when the overall picture of the race whipsawed around with extraordinary speed, but the state polls weren't coming as thick and fast as today. The state poll aggregates lagged the swings in the trackers by a few days just because the fresh polls in swing states weren't in yet. (Of course, the 538 regression compensated for that to some degree, but other aggregation sites didn't have something like that.)

In this stage of the campaign, though, there probably isn't any significant aggregator lag because all the states where there's any question at all (and some where there isn't) get multiple new polls out every day.

Some pollsters are gonna have egg on their face ne...

2008-10-29T20:58:00.000-04:00

Some pollsters are gonna have egg on their face next week. The two most accurate tracking polls in 2004 -- TIPP and Rasmussen -- both have Obama up by 3 points nationally today (as does Gallup LV traditional).

Yet we are seeing swing state polls with outrageous Obama leads like up 25 in NH and up 10 in VA and up 7 in OH and FL. Such numbers cannot be rationally reconciled.

If on election morning, the trackers have Obama up by 3 or 2, he could end up narrowly losing because of so many older conservatives refusing to participate in polls at all (which differs from the Bradley effect).

Only 2 polls out of 32 favor McCain, and they are ...

2008-10-29T20:37:00.000-04:00

Only 2 polls out of 32 favor McCain, and they are in AZ and AK? Did you miss the CNN polls in MO and GA that show McCain with leads of +2 and +5, respectively?

I agree with otf. Nice to see Georgia moving into ...

2008-10-29T20:13:00.000-04:00

I agree with otf. Nice to see Georgia moving into toss-up category for the first time on RCP.

Looks like we're heading for a monster turnout in GA.

New thread.Not today's polls. :-(

2008-10-29T20:06:00.000-04:00

New thread.

Not today's polls. :-(

Blogger Darío said... New post. Today´s pol...

2008-10-29T20:04:00.001-04:00

Blogger Darío said...

New post.
Today´s polls.

Was that a request?

Blogger Real Joe said... darío said... New ...

2008-10-29T20:04:00.000-04:00

Blogger Real Joe said...

darío said...
New post.
Today´s polls.

?????????????

I don't know what Dario's post meant either.

The new post should be up...

Word verification: ciedioni

This just in: anon. McCain staffer calls Palin a "...

2008-10-29T20:00:00.000-04:00

This just in: anon. McCain staffer calls Palin a "whack job."

link

ROFL

darío said...New post.Today´s polls.?????????????

2008-10-29T19:59:00.000-04:00

darío said...
New post.
Today´s polls.

?????????????

All my fellow PDT/MDT (MST in AZ) folks - the Obam...

2008-10-29T19:58:00.000-04:00

All my fellow PDT/MDT (MST in AZ) folks - the Obama ad will not be time-shifted on MSNBC - it starts in 3 minutes

(paddli - sounds like what McCain would like Palin to be)

This decided has low expectations.The Slate survey...

2008-10-29T19:53:00.000-04:00

This decided has low expectations.

The Slate survey of staffers voting reasons, inspired me to write down my own reasons.
http://www.slate.com/id/2203151/
Staffer and contributor totals:
Barack Obama: 55
John McCain: 1
Bob Barr: 1
Not McCain: 1
Noncitizen, can't vote: 4
----
My favorite statement:
Tim Wu, Contributing Writer: Obama
Most of all, I like his obvious inner calm. It suggests that his decisions will come from somewhere other than expediency, anger, or fear. It's like electing Obi-Wan Kenobi as president.
----
My reasons for voting: Obama
I am voting for Obama because I have low expectations. For example, I don't expect Obama will drag us into another futile war (Iran?) or shove the economy into a depression. Also, I don't expect Obama will throw the health care system into the jaws of insurance companies or give children a token pass for education. I don't expect Obama will use religion as a hatchet, nor will he take away a woman's right to choose, nor will he demonize gay marriage. Also, I have low expectations Obama will sell America's future to the highest bidders on Wall Street or to global corporations. He is unlikely to ignore global warming until the White House is under water or until California becomes a perpetual wildfire state. I don't expect him to treat the United Nations like a door mat. Lastly, you can't expect Obama to give strip miners in Appalachia carte blanche to fill the streams with debris. My expectations for those things are really low.

People with IQs over 170 have a hard time relating...

2008-10-29T19:51:00.000-04:00

People with IQs over 170 have a hard time relating with others. Genrally if you have an IQ 30 points more or less than someone, you can't relate to each other. It's very hard to surround yourself with people with over 140 IQ, since that's probably less than 1% of the population. This is the main reason, I believe, that folks with super genius IQs tend to fail in different parts of life. It takes a Village. It's hard to function in society without being part of it's cloth.

What am I going to be doing this time next week?I ...

2008-10-29T19:50:00.000-04:00

What am I going to be doing this time next week?

I imagine most of us will still be celebrating the return of sanity and competence to our government, the restoration of the constitution,and rule of law. Also getting our country back.then we start by cleaning house at the D of J

Obama's been tested. He's in the 130s.

2008-10-29T19:48:00.000-04:00

Obama's been tested. He's in the 130s.

Hillary's IQ is genius level as is Bill's. They b...

2008-10-29T19:47:00.001-04:00

Hillary's IQ is genius level as is Bill's. They both miss in other areas. Chelsea seems to have the best of both in some ways. Perhaps she'll be our first feamle President.

New post.Today´s polls.

2008-10-29T19:47:00.000-04:00

New post.
Today´s polls.

stepper -Love your posts, but I have to be pedanti...

2008-10-29T19:46:00.000-04:00

stepper -

Love your posts, but I have to be pedantic for a second about your 160-180 IQ estimate for BHO. :p

Take a standard deviation of 16 points and a normal distribution.

Then the frequency of a 160 IQ is 1/11k. (I.e. there are ~27,000 people this intelligent in the US.)

The frequency of a 180 IQ is 1/3.5M (I.e. there are ~85 people this intelligent in the entire country.)

Now, I admit that running a political campaign hardly provides the cognitive markers necessary to distinguish between such high IQ's.

But BHO is nowhere near a 180IQ. That is the rarefied air of the Terrence Tao's of the world---who, for example, taught himself to read at 2 years old by watching Sesame Street.

STepper said... Re IQ I am a graduate of Har...

2008-10-29T19:43:00.002-04:00

STepper said...

Re IQ

I am a graduate of Harvard Law School when the Clintons were at Yale. I have been a BHO supporter for a long time. So, those are my biases.

BHO has a very very high IQ, probably in the 160-180 range. McCain is probably close to 120.

BHO is not, however, the smartest politician this cycle. That goes to Hillary Clinton who is absolutely brilliant, but who couldn't run a presidential campaign to save her life (or get her the presidency).

In all things, brains, temperament, people skills, BHO is right up there with the best -- Lincoln.

Stepper,

I attended Harvard College, Stanford, and Yale. As you know, the mere fact of having gone to these schools can mean a lot or next to nothing. Fortunately for the Democratic party and for America, Yale and Harvard got it right with the Clintons and with Obama. I don't know about the respective IQ's; you can't quantify intelligence from casual observation, and as I was trying to indicate, the ability to organize a campaign, which Hillary didn't have, is a part of her intelligence, even if an IQ test wouldn't show it. (And Hillary has an IQ of 190? a 200? Like Wittgenstein or Newton?)

But you're absolutely right when you say, "In all things, brains, temperament, people skills, BHO is right up there with the best." The Lincoln part I'll get back to you in four or eight years.

The thing about almost all of our President's with...

2008-10-29T19:43:00.001-04:00

The thing about almost all of our President's with the exception of lincoln and Washington off the top of my head is they're one of four things and often times a combination of them. #1 Silver spoon elite #2 Charisma out the wazoo + huge ego #3 Rich as all get out, built through hard work and big ego #4 Carried in by the party as a flag-bearer for others.

Obama is none of the above. Yes, he has charisma, his ego is tied to helping others and making his father he barely knew proud. He' however is the best of us. That's almost nonexisent in our leadership in America. Most stay away from public service.