Comments on FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Road to 270: Colorado

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2009-10-02T07:56:51.546-04:00

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2009-09-26T07:20:11.257-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:46:00.001-04:00

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2009-03-12T21:46:00.000-04:00

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2009-02-08T22:57:00.000-05:00

Thanks for that exhaustive post on Virginia in a t...

2008-11-03T21:09:00.000-05:00

Thanks for that exhaustive post on Virginia in a thread about Colorado.

Anyway, 95,000 Mormons in a state of 4.5 million- that's not much. They are probably mostly concentrated near UT border, not far from Monticello, with a scattered few on the Front Range and other communities. That is opposed to something like 72% of Utah and just over 50% of SLC. Ironically, SLC is way more liberal than CS. I think CS will see a tightening over 2004. Denver suburbs and turnout in rest of state looking good for BHO- not all the rural areas are so red- mountain ski towns are more balanced. NM border counties are more blue. Roaring Fork Valley has grown significantly in population and diversity of dempographic. Pueblo is reliably blue. Ft. Collins and Greeley are getting bigger and more diverse. Durango is another balanced town. Grand Junction moght be better for BHO than 04 too.

[Seems this post has not shown up after 4 hours so...

2008-11-03T13:09:00.000-05:00

[Seems this post has not shown up after 4 hours so I'm posting it again]

And so we are down the our last 3 stops on the road to 270...

The District of Columbia:

With it's 3 electoral votes and a voting population greater than the state of Wyoming, the District of Columbia cannot be forgotten. Imagine if we disenfranchised Wyoming by taking away its one voting right in the House and it's 2 Senate votes and you have an idea of what it's like for the often ignored residents of the District of Columbia. None the less, the District of Columbia will most likely end up as one of the biggest victories for the Obama campaign come election day, Elanor Holmes Norton will easily maintain her non-voting House Congressional seat.

Ohio:

Ohio is a state which the John Kerry considered the final nail in the coffin in his 2004 bid for President, where he lost by a very narrow, and some Democrats say questionable, margin. This year, Ohio seems just as tight and it's importance in this election can not be underestimated.

Virginia:

I call the Commonwealth home and thus look most forward to the summary of this Tippingest of Tipping Point states. Things to watch out for here is the congressional race in the 11th district, with Representative Tom Davis retiring in a bid for John Warner's opened senate seat and then getting out-flanked by former Governor Jim "No Car Tax" Gillmore by holding the Republican Senatorial selection process in Caucuses which favoured Gillmore. Meanwhile, Gillmore's successor, Democrat Mark Warner, is very much in line to win the Senate seat he could not win 12 years ago in the 3-Warner race between John Warner, businessman Mark Warner and another Warner as a third-party challenge. Then, John Warner easily maintained his Senate seat and Mark Warner went on to be a very popular, budget-balancing and fiscally responsible Governor of the Commonwealth. All signs point to the Virginia Senate seat remaining with a Warner. Current Governor Tim Kaine, Mark Warner's chosen successor and college friend of Senator Obama was once considered a favourite for a Vice-Presidential position before Russia invaded Georgia and forced Omama to choose Joe Biden, with his extensive Senatorial Foreign Policy experience. None the less, as Virginia's chief Democrat, Kaine is not only predicting the 11th Congressional District being vacated by Tom Davis, an R+1 district, going to Fairfax County Supervisor Jerry Connolly over challenger Keith Fimian, but that at least one other seat could go blue, from either the 2nd, 5th or 10th Districts. Most pundits would say the 5th district, which extends from the University of Virginia at Charlottesville in the north to the North Carolina border in the South and incorporates much of central Virginia. In the 5th District, Republican Congressperson Virgil Goode is running for re-election against Democrat Tom Perriello, whose early fund raising demonstrates a sizable challenge, as well as potential new voters from the University of Virginia. In the 2nd district, Republican Congressperson Thelma Drake is running against Democratic Challenger Glenn Nye. The 2nd district incorporates Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore, with a large Military constituency as well as a very urban electorate. The makes for a well-divided district, with the Military numbers favouring Republicans and the Urbanization favouring Democrats. None the less, apart from the blue region of Upper Virginia, Newport News / Virginia Beach tend to represent the most Democratic-leaning part of the Commonwealth. Finally, the 10th district has gained a bit of national attention for the caning incident of last month. 2 years ago, Democrat Judy Feder challenged 13-term Republican Congressperson Frank Wolf, only to loose by 16 points, with 3rd party candidate Neeraj Nigam getting about 3/4 of a percent in that same election. Now, the 3 candidates again face-off, this time as Frank Wolf attempts to obtain a 15th congressional term. The 10th Congressional District incorporates the North-Western part of Virginia, Winchester, Front Royal and Leesburg and the quasi-DC suburbs of Manassas, Chantilly, north Herndon, Great Falls and McLean. This district was constructed to contain the richest suburbs of Fairfax County and the semi-rural northern part of Virginia. Urban Manassas, Chantilly and McLean should favour Feder this time around, with the west going for Wolf. That leaves the Republican-leaning norther DC suburbs the real deciding factor in this race. One thing I can recommend to any person in the 10th congressional district to disambiguate the hype around the Caning incident of a few weeks ago is to watch the full debate between Feder and Wolf, sponsored by the Manassas 100: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7212111572046573337&hl=en

Despite the rhetoric of the recent assault, my own take on this particular race is not if Congressperson Wolf will maintain his seat, but by how many points he will. Can Dr. Feder narrow that 16 point gap to 10 or even 5? Or will she hit one out of the park and surprise all signs to the contrary and unseat popular Congressperson and centrist Republican Frank Wolf. These questions and others we shall find out tomorrow...

Religious Left - yes, there are Mormons in Colorad...

2008-11-03T09:52:00.000-05:00

Religious Left - yes, there are Mormons in Colorado. Mostly over here in the SW corner of the state.

But yeah, we're going blue. About a month ago registration numbers flipped for both the state and my county (La Plata - where Durango is) and now we have more Dems than GOP. But more independents than both, and they tend to be libertarian-types.

MSNBC will be co-hosted by KO and Matthews, with G...

2008-11-03T03:01:00.001-05:00

MSNBC will be co-hosted by KO and Matthews, with Gregory anchoring.

No, I don't know what that all means either.

Frankly, CO has been too hot this time of year. It's annoying. But we should have good weather for the lines on Tuesday.

Oh, Hunter, you took your life depressed over Kerr...

2008-11-03T03:01:00.000-05:00

Oh, Hunter, you took your life depressed over Kerry's loss... what I would do to read your faxes to Carville these days.

Hunter S. Thompson might say something akin to: "make the pigfuckers pay with blood...", which might offend your liberal sensibilities, yet that is what the GOP deserves: years in the wilderness, if not outright public humiliation.

Progressives with teeth is what this country needs. Let 'em call you socialist. I smell blood. Keep 'em scared.

"Fuck those people." -HST

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/03/newli...

2008-11-03T02:54:00.000-05:00

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/11/03/newlifechurch/

"New Life isn't just any megachurch. Its founding pastor, the Rev. Ted Haggard, once led the National Association of Evangelicals. He helped rally his flock -- and conservative Christians around the country -- behind George W. Bush's reelection campaign four years ago. For a time it seemed New Life, the largest church in Colorado, was set to be the vanguard of a political movement that would put the Bible into policymaking for years to come, as Karl Rove and evangelical leaders like Haggard teamed up to turn the country red.

But that was before Haggard was forced out of his post after a scandal involving methamphetamines and a gay hooker, two elements that don't go over that well among fundamentalists, and especially not when mixed together. Two days later, Republicans lost control of Congress in the 2006 elections. Now, two days before another election, with the polls pointing toward a Barack Obama victory both in Colorado and nationwide, the country no longer quite seems to be going New Life's way."

Doh! The meth and the gay hooker... not good for the GOP, nope, not good one bit...

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/02/...

2008-11-03T02:14:00.000-05:00

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/02/anti-mccain-banner-flown-over-invesco-field/

baahhaa!!

There is not a large Mormon population in CS. I g...

2008-11-03T01:14:00.000-05:00

There is not a large Mormon population in CS. I grew up there. There are LDS churches there, yet they are no more prevalent as Baptists or the Focus crowd, or, the dude that hooked up with the male prostitute in Denver- what was that dude's name- anyway, that's one of those "mega-churches" that happens to be more of the Pentacostal vein.

There are also many mainstream churches in and around the Springs, including a huge number of Presbyterian, Methodist, Catholic, Unitarians and Episcopalians are concentrated around CS's old North End near Colorado College, as are many of the liberal/progressives that have been shaken out of complacency since the early 90's (remember Amendment 2 and the Promise Keepers?).

While I highly doubt BHO will win CS, it is unfathomable that McCain will garner the 62% that Bush did in '04. There are many fiscal conservatives that will vote for BHO is what I am hearing.

Mormons are not a part of any real political equation in CO or CS. CO is too libertarian for that kind of Church/State thing. We are not Utah. We never will be. There are 5 times as many people in CO as in UT and CO is wayyyy more diverse. The demographic is changing too rapidly even in El Paso county. I would venture to guess that BHO could pick up 42-46% of El Paso vote.

This analysis is right on. I am one of those "secu...

2008-11-03T00:39:00.000-05:00

This analysis is right on. I am one of those "secular independents in the West", and I have been so turned off by the Focus on the Family, religious conservative, anti-science brand of politics that I've been registered Republican since 2000 for the specific purpose of voting against those Republicans in primaries (as well as in general elections of course).

I voted for McCain in this last primary, and have already cast an early vote for Obama.

Down with ignorance, long live science.

A lot of Coloradans dislike political shenanigans,...

2008-11-03T00:30:00.000-05:00

A lot of Coloradans dislike political shenanigans, and lately the Republicans have taken the lead on that front. Newspapers that used to reliably endorse Republican are now endorsing more Democrats, though rarely in a straight ticket. This could easily swing the other way if the Republicans can reestablish their image as the party that keeps government out of the way. Unfortunately for them, the Focus on the Family base wants to get the government (on behalf of the church) more involved in people's lives.

To the commenter wondering about Mormons: they're concentrated around Colorado Springs, but a lot of cities have an LDS presence (even Boulder). Someone I worked with in college said most of her high school in the Springs were Mormon.

WV: mendera - A public relations company specializing in rebuilding political brands.

YAY!!!!My big brother shipped his butt to Colorado...

2008-11-02T22:53:00.000-05:00

YAY!!!!

My big brother shipped his butt to Colorado to fight "THE GOOD FIGHT"...
Yesterday was my b-day and i don't even care about that, I JUST WAN'T OBAMA TO CHANGE THE WORLD 4 ALL OF US!!!

IT'S A MUST!!!

THANK U KRISZ!!!
♡♥♡♥♡♥

As a CO native, I have to say don't get your hopes...

2008-11-02T21:30:00.000-05:00

As a CO native, I have to say don't get your hopes up too much. I think Obama is going to win this time, but because he's an extraordinary candidate and people here are sick of the Rove-style Republicans.

If Hillary had gotten the nomination, CO would be dark red. If McCain had run the kind of campaign he ran in 2000, we would be pink.

Also keep in mind that a lot of people here like Palin. Not so much because they're frothing fundies (though we have plenty of those), but because they see her as an ordinary person whose trying to do the right thing--one of "us".

We still like our taxes low and the government out of our face. Even a liberal like me; I refuse to vote for any anti-gay candidate (in my case, Musgrave and Katie Witt) because I think the government should just leave people alone. Though we've had a lot of new people come into the state, we haven't forgotten our libertarian roots. If that faction of the Republicans wins out in the next few cycles, then we'll go right back to red.

So while there has been a real swing blue here, I thinks it's going to prove fickle.

Denver has the most awesome yard sales in America....

2008-11-02T20:31:00.000-05:00

Denver has the most awesome yard sales in America. When I lived in Rapid City (armpit of America), I'd make the trip by car once a month, just for those. You were better off driving rather than flying, back in the Stapleton days. Ugh. You might save an hour or two going by plane (maybe), but only if you didn't get a stroke from the explosive rise of blood pressure from dealing with that place.

The weather in the Colorado front range is fantast...

2008-11-02T20:20:00.000-05:00

The weather in the Colorado front range is fantastic. Today, November 2nd, I canvassed (again!) under a bright blue sky and t-shirt temperatures.
And the people are nice. That includes most libertarians and conservatives, as a matter of fact. Okay, not all: a fellow canvasser, a retired medical doctor who moved here from Charlotte, was recently threatened by a woman who interrupted his introduction as an Obama canvasser to tell him she' have to get her gun...
I talked to a 73 year old lady today who voted Dem but was cautious about Obama's prospect: "I know quite a few who won't vote for him just because he's black" (she then tried to interest me in some land she's selling near Glenwood Springs...)

I worked with the campaign for Obama this weekend ...

2008-11-02T20:15:00.000-05:00

I worked with the campaign for Obama this weekend in Colorado and people are excited about this. The McCain people are grumpy, but he attracts grumpy people.

I do have to differ with the person who said there is not discrimination against Irish Americans or Italian Americans. True now, not in the past. Every new wave of immigration has also brought out the racism in some people. When I was a small child I was 'a dirty little mick'
Keep it in perspective and read some history.
On the other hand...stay mad til after the election!!!

Republicans are dead in Colorado for exactly the s...

2008-11-02T20:09:00.000-05:00

Republicans are dead in Colorado for exactly the same reason they are dead everywhere.

They brutally insulted Hispanic voters during the last 8 years. Remember all those Hispanic-Americans marching in protest a couple of years ago?

What was the response of the right-wing? Attack them for carrying Mexican flags and being "un-American!"

Pure racism! You don't see anybody attacking Irish Americans for marching with the Irish flag or Polish Americans marching with Polish flags or Italian Americans marching with Italian flags.

Just pure race hatred. And it's had it's result. Obama is getting 65% of the Hispanic vote and the generation gap is even more severe.

"What's shaping up is not comparable to '92, the last time a Democrat won the White House. "It's much more serious and devastating to Republicans," says Stan Greenberg, who was Bill Clinton's pollster. Democrats lost seats in '92; Clinton had no coattails. Obama may enter the White House with close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and a doubling of the Democratic margin in the House. This is a watershed election. Typically, every four years, somebody wins, somebody loses, and life goes on. But Obama represents generational change that has huge political repercussions. He wins 63 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29. For the Republicans, "It's not just a lost election, it's a lost generation," says Greenberg."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/166680

radio show host announced that zogby has new poll ...

2008-11-02T20:04:00.000-05:00

radio show host announced that zogby has new poll numbers for Monday and that listeners should have a blue crayon ready...

You call that a great point? Todd's comment, and ...

2008-11-02T19:29:00.000-05:00

You call that a great point? Todd's comment, and your appraisal, I'm afraid, both echo in a grand canyon of historical ignorance.

The Right used Chile as its "petri dish" for economic shock therapy, beginning with a US sponsored coup on 9/11/1973, Yes, that's September 11, 1973.

NAOMI KLEIN: "And so, the Chicago Boys were born. And it was considered a success, and the Ford Foundation got in on the funding. And hundreds and hundreds of Latin American students, on full scholarships, came to the University of Chicago in the 1950s and ’60s to study here to try to engage in what Juan Gabriel Valdes, Chile’s foreign minister after the dictatorship finally ended, described as a project of deliberate ideological transfer, taking these extreme-right ideas, that were seen as marginal even in the United States, and transplanting them to Latin America. That was his phrase--that is his phrase." http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/6/naomi_klein

The world has seen enough of politicians using us, the electorate, and our lands, as their freakin' petri dishes.

So what is the purpose of Chris Matthews who claim...

2008-11-02T19:15:00.000-05:00

So what is the purpose of Chris Matthews who claims to personally support Barack showing the entire Reverand ad ? Why? and of course have a black conservative person speaking. Might just change channel over to FOX. I have not watched Fox though in years but the earlier post about watching it Tuesday is something to ponder. Please post interesting and often I have to get through the next few hours... and then will volunteer tomorrow.

wv oxiest ... and at my age!

Denver is my ideal place to live. Perfect weather....

2008-11-02T18:57:00.000-05:00

Denver is my ideal place to live. Perfect weather. Beautiful scenary. Nice people. I also like how everyone is active there. No surprise Colorado was named again the less obsese State in the union.